Comments on: Where Are We Nationally

By: The Macker

The Macker — Mon, 06 Nov 2006 19:30:49 +0000

AJ,
I am a structural engineer and wind engineering is one of my specialties. Your “bias correction factor” is not unlike the “gust factor” we use to adjust an average wind velocity to a gust speed ( abt. 1.15). Your factor accounts for guesses of turnout and systemic predisposition of the pollster and his client.

I suspect the privately contracted internal polls tell a lot more than the public and media polls.

By: archtop

archtop — Mon, 06 Nov 2006 18:24:37 +0000

Actually these outlier polls by CNN and Fox News are great news! I’ve been predicting that many Dems will stay at home on Tuesday because they think it’s over and they’ve won. This, I hope, will further suppress the Dem vote tomorrow…

By: crosspatch

crosspatch — Mon, 06 Nov 2006 17:18:54 +0000

Fox News also has a poll out that shows the Dems gaining ground. Here's the link.

By: crosspatch

crosspatch — Mon, 06 Nov 2006 17:12:29 +0000

Interesting to note that my local media has not at all mentioned any of those three polls and this morning’s news is touting a CNN poll that shows the Democrats DOUBLING their lead in voter approval to 20%.

So we have three polls that show the Dems losing half their lead, one poll showing them doubling their lead and the only one I hear on the radio is the latter. No wonder these people around here seem to think the Republicans cheat. All they hear is how well their party is doing.

By: AJStrata

AJStrata — Mon, 06 Nov 2006 16:53:26 +0000

Rick,

Sorry I missed the invite (head down on these posts before I scramble onto the monthly reporst!).

I’ll email in a bit.

AJStrata

By: Rick Moran

Rick Moran — Mon, 06 Nov 2006 16:44:47 +0000

Great stuff, AJ. Love the hurricane analogy.

Still time to come on the show. Let me know if you’re interested.

Rick

By: archtop

archtop — Mon, 06 Nov 2006 16:09:13 +0000

AJ,

Great analysis as usual! As a mechanical engineer with a background in numerical analysis, I can appreciate how poor assumptions can lead to flawed conclusions.

If as I expect the results tomorrow are entirely different than the fantasies put forth by the political punditry (e.g. the Charlies Cook’s and Larry Sabato’s), the pollsters (e.g. Zogby etc.), and the MSM, I hope someone does a post-mortem on who was wrong and by how much (this was done somewhat in 2004, and I remember Zogby was cited as one of pollsters who blew it). Moreover, I would love to see a chart of the poll numbers for selected candidates for 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, etc. before the election from various sources versus the actual election results. That would be an eye-opener for sure!

By: Hugh Hewitt

Hugh Hewitt — Mon, 06 Nov 2006 15:45:15 +0000

Why We Don’t Let Pollsters Chart Hurricane Courses…

A.J. Strata employs a brilliant analogy to explain why the pollsters are scrambling:

If you notice any hurricane track prediction it is in the shape of a funnel or cone. As the storm comes closer to land, and variables become less variable, the……