Nov 09 2006
What many of us (Dafydd suffered the same fate as me) who missed in our House Predictions missed the number of seats in play. I am seeing races now that I never knew were in play. I only had one NH race at risk – probably should have gone with the other but few saw that one as close (those accurate polls agai). So forgive me for having incomplete information. And I, sadly, had too much belief that Americans would not smear one person for another person’s digressions. If I was pollyannish, it was in this one area because that was how I saw Weldon’s race going (innocent until proven guilty), and the Foley (FL-16) – Delay(TX-22) seats going. I felt we were less impulsive to media hype. OK – my confidence in people is not shattered, just dented.
That was three of my missed seats. But all in all I was not far off in many. The ones I missed were NY-24, NY-20, IN-2, FL-22 (Dem Loss – wrong in the right direction!), AZ-5, CA-11, CT-2 (apparently), (IA-1 Dem loss – wrong in the right direction)
I was right in IN-9, FL-13, NM-1 (apparently), OH-1, OH-2, CT-4 (apparently), IL-6, MN-6, WA-8 (apparently), VA-2, AZ-8 (D pickup), , PA-10 (Dem Pick Up), NY-26.
My toss ups were C)-7 (D), IN-8 (D), OH-18 (D), NC-11 (D), OH-15 (R), NH-2 (D), PA-6 (R – apparently), CT-5 (R). I had 8 toss ups and I predicted Dems would get 4, and they got 5.
I missed 9 dem pick ups not in the toss up category (edit: plus 2 I predicted correctly, fixed the numbers), but I also missed 2 Rep
pick ups holds. So the dems netted 7 9 seats outside the toss ups. I said the dems would split the toss ups and they did basically (the toss ups I was watching on RCP at least). I had said Dems would win 4-8 seats in the races I had listed in my last prediction and it was actually 12 14. If I had been more bullish on the Foley, Delay and Weldon seats (my big mistakes) then I would have been within one 3 races of the results. This is a perfect example of what I was blaming on the pollsters – I had an inadequate sample. I probably should have done the entire RCP pool of races (but these posts took a lot of time to collate). I had seen a point in the RCP rankings where the polls where not indicating much more than a close race with a Rep lead and stopped there. OK – sue me.
Actually, you can’t. But if you look at my record (outside my pollyannish 3) then I was really close. And the races I applied the bias correction factor on where worthy of that correction in many cases. So we live and learn to play the game another day.
Forgot to notice there is still on Dem loss possible in GA. I felt we would get at least one. Anyway, pointless exercise. I was toasted in the Senate anyway! Speaker Pelosi and Leader Reid, step up to the plate. Your turn.