Lots of folks have been wondering why Justice Rehnquist had not announced his retirement. My theory had been Rehnquist was going to wait to be the last to announce this summer since he was Chief Justice, and for many reasons he should go last. Well thanks to a post at Viking Pundit, it appears Professor Bainbridge has been in contact with someone who can shed more light on the internal posturing of the supremes and how this will play out.

I got an email today from a reliable source opining that Justice John Paul Stevens will retire this summer if, but only if, CJ Rehnquist steps down. The theory is that Stevens will be willing to let Bush fill his slot only if there are so many spots available that Bush will feel free and/or pressure to nominate at least one moderate. If true, my guess is that the three slots would go to: Alberto Gonzales, probably as Chief, since he’s Bush’s closest judicial friend and Bush seems so eager to appoint the first Hispanic; Edith Jones (or possibly Janice Rogers Brown) so that a woman replaces O’Connor; and Michael McConnell to make both business and social conservatives happy.

I have always been a promoter of Justice Brown replacing O’Connor and see this as important to the eminent domain issue.

This could be another historic moment in Bush’s historic presidency.