Nov 20 2006
Sunni’s Fighting Al Qaeda
While the Democrats push for America’s complete surrender to Al Qaeda in Iraq, thankfully the Iraqis themselves are stilling clawing their way to a democratic future. More indications are being seen that Al Qaeda’s brutality against Iraqis is starting to pay off – for the Coalition. Sunni’s are openly standing up against the Al Qaeda outsiders -0 and winning:
A power struggle is taking place in the Sunni triangle, with tribal leaders and coalition forces aligning against a common enemy
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While the world’s attention has been focused on Baghdad’s slide into sectarian warfare, something remarkable has been happening in Ramadi, a city of 400,000 inhabitants that al-Qaeda and its Iraqi allies have controlled since mid-2004 and would like to make the capital of their cherished Islamic caliphate.
A power struggle has erupted: al-Qaeda’s reign of terror is being challenged. Sheikh Sittar and many of his fellow tribal leaders have cast their lot with the once-reviled US military. They are persuading hundreds of their followers to sign up for the previously defunct Iraqi police. American troops are moving into a city that was, until recently, a virtual no-go area. A battle is raging for the allegiance of Ramadi’s battered and terrified citizens and the outcome could have far-reaching consequences.
Don’t let the defeatism of anyone, including Kissinger, convince you all is lost in Iraq. Kissinger is not in Iraq – he has no first hand knowledge. Just like everyone else here in the US who pretends to be able to predict what is going on in a foreign country on the other side of the world – they are just blowing smoke. I don’t know what will happen. But I do know how to measure where things lay. And the Iraqis and the US military, the ones there day in and day out, are not sending signals all is lost. In fact just the opposite.
Ramadi has been the insurgency’s stronghold for the past two years. It is the conduit for weapons and foreign fighters arriving from Syria and Saudi Arabia. To reclaim it would deal a severe blow to the insurgency throughout the Sunni triangle and counter mounting criticism of the war back in America.
This could be the Battle of the Bulge for Iraq, where the back is broken for our enemies. If Al Qaeda loses their planned capitol city of their vaunted Caliphate then they will lose all credibility. We may actually be on the brink of a major success in Iraq. First rule of thumb – don’t listen to people who pretend they can foretell the future. As we saw in this last election – no one can. Listen to those who are there. Do not listen to those who couldn’t find Al Qaeda if they were standing right in front of them.
Update: More on Ramadi and how things have progressed from Fallujah to Ramadi here:
For this very reason, Ramadi is both a litmus test for the counterinsurgency effort in Iraq and a laboratory. If we can defeat the insurgent and terrorist forces here, there is no place we cannot defeat them. And from what I found, we are defeating them. It’s painfully slow, and our men there are still dying in inordinate numbers from a broad variety of attacks. But a multitude of factors, including tribal cooperation, the continual introduction of more Iraqi army and police, the beginning of public works projects, the building of more Forward Operating Bases (FOBs), the installation of more small operational posts (OPs), and plunking down company-sized Combat Operation Posts (COPs) smack in the middle of hostile territory are destroying both the size and the mobility of the enemy.
We may be at the tipping point in Iraq. Al Qaeda could be on the brink of a crippling loss.
Update: As I said, Kissinger and the other handwringers are not on the ground. Here is the status from Colonel Larry Nicholson who heads the efforts to stabilize Ramadi and Anbar province:
Nicholson is the commander of Regimental Combat Team 5, a large contingent of Soldiers and Sailors operating across 1,800-square miles in Anbar. The Iraqi cities of Fallujah and Ramadi are part of RCT-5’s area of operations.
The colonel said he concurs with Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, commander, U.S. Central Command, who recently stated victory over insurgents in Iraq can best be achieved by establishing capable, nonpartisan Iraqi Army and Police Forces backed by a unified Iraqi government.
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Nicholson saluted the new Iraqi Security Forces, noting they are intelligent and quick learners under the tutelage of U.S.
“There’s a great deal of satisfaction of seeing an Iraqi platoon, which you’ve been working with and training, going out and just ‘nailing’ a patrol and just doing great out there,” he observed.
Partnership, cooperation and mutual respect play big roles in developing effective Iraqi Security Forces, Nicholson pointed out.
“We are, as Marines, a better unit when we go out and we have Iraqis with us,” the colonel observed. The Iraqis, he explained, “see things we’ll never see.”
For example, Iraqi Soldiers and Police can quickly identify non-local people or foreigners who may be potential terrorists, Nicholson observed.
The lesson for the antique media and their talking heads is that we Americans don’t need interpretors. Just let us know what the experts are saying and we can judge for ourselves where things are heading. One thing is for sure, a lot of brave and good people are sacrificing in Ramadi and need to be treated as heroes if we do succeed and we do turn the tide on Al Qaeda in Iraq.
Update: It should be noted that the Battle of The Bulge was Hitler’s last, desparate effort to avoid defeat. He through everything he had at the Allies and nearly succeeding in pushing them back. But what we today need to take away from this is the fact these last ditch efforts incur massive casualties. So when we look at The Battle of The Bulge we see enormous casualties on both sides (for comparison here is the WWII wikipedia entry with the war’s total casualties). It is important to note the battle lasted from Dec 16th, 1944 to Mid Janaury 1945 (January 7th-23rd depending when you want to call it a lost cause for Hitler). These casualties happened in a single month as Hitler dissipated his remaining forces on this last ditch effort.
So if this is a pivotal last thrust in the battle of Iraq, we would expect to see the same increase in carnage – and we do. The antique news media’s understanding of war is worse than their comprehension of the US military. They get their impressions from Hollywood movies – not history. So expect to see more outcries of Iraq spinning out of control. But realize the zone of violence in Iraq is shrinking (much of the country is already under Iraqi control), and those remaining zones are being flooded with resources and being worked with Iraqis to ferret out the insurgents.
AJ, read Kenneth Timmerman at NewsMax.com he is usually well informed. Pretty scary stuff.
What I believe was pretty telling was the recent arrest warrant issued for Harith al-Dhari. That would have been unthinkable a year ago. If the article is correct in that 70 percent of the population is openly supporting the government now, things should swing around nicely once they get the infrastructure repaired. As the article states, getting telephone service working again is very important. Anonymous telephone tips have been very successful against the insurgents.
If the insurgents can be routed from Ramadi, if the insurgent groups under al-Dhari can be disrupted, and if the sectarian slaughter in Baghdad could be brought under control, then prospects might brighten in the coming year.
Of course, the media would crow about it if some way could be found to give the credit to the recently elected Congress.
Strata is a fool. The CIA’s Hayden said yesterday Al Qaeda numbered 1300 in Iraq. Feingold is not a fool. He realizes there are tens of thousands more al Qaeda in Somalia, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc.
Strata is twice a fool. He wants you to believe the choice for Iraqis is al Qaeda or democracy. Not that it saddened me, but demcoracy for the Palestinians elected Hamas.
If Strata believes democracy to the average Iraqi means an American-friendly government he is rubber room ready.
My first comment didn’t take so here it is again. Feingold realizes there are only 1300 al Qaeda in Iraq and tens of thousands elsewhere.
And if Strata believes democracy to an average Iraqi means an America-friendly government he’d better check out Hamas’ election in Palestine. Iraq’s next government will be just as unfriendly.
In RealClearPolitics, Victor David Hanson wrote a great piece, on a world with an American surrender.
“Feingold realizes there are only 1300 al Qaeda in Iraq and tens of thousands elsewhere.”
Really? Tens of thousands? I really doubt that. Thing is it only takes a dozen or two to cause major problems. 9/11 was pulled off with 20. I can think of scenarios that could terrorize thousands more at half the cost. It isn’t a matter of numbers. But even so, I doubt there is even 10 thousand let alone tens of thousands. It only takes one to kill a hundred.
“if Strata believes democracy to an average Iraqi means an America-friendly government he’d better check out Hamas’ election in Palestine”
That comment makes no sense whatsoever. Again, what does Palestine have to do with Iraq? Nothing. The recent election in Nicaragua means as much as the election in Palestine. It is just nonsense. Why would you pull something completely unrelated into a conversation about Iraq? Oh, right, it is because the Palestine/Israel issue is important to you so you need to inject it into any conversation on any topic.
“Iraq’s next government will be just as unfriendly.”
I doubt that. Iraq has the potential of matching or surpassing Saudi Arabia’s oil export numbers. They have the potential to be a very rich country. They have a history of being a well educated country. Iraq will look nothing at all like Palestine. Ever. The Palestinians have traditionally been farmers and sheapards and they can’t stop shooting long enough to create a service economy or a decent educational system. Iraq has a long entrepeneurial history, technical universities, medical schools, etc. Thier identity is not defined by a fight the way the Palestinian identity is.
Once the Iraqi people turn on the insurgents, we see the begining of the end. I believe what we are seeing right now is a last gasp to create mayhem in order to give the Democrats the justification they need to pull out. If we abandon the Iraqis, yeah, the next government might be hostile toward us.
Here is a good article recently posted from Michael Fumento.
Link
So this article echos the sentiment of the other.
Hmm, another source saying the same thing. Looks like things might be turning around.
Kissinger was an old man when I was young and I am not young anymore. Why would we think he knows anything about Iraq?
The Wild West was settled when the people living there got fed with the outlaws running the place and began to lay down some rules. The Iraqis have to live with all this. We see and hear the reports of violence, but there are 26 million people in that country and obviously the overwhelming majority are not part of the violence. When they get fed up enough they will stand up to the outlaws.
First Cup 11.20.06…
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Kissinger was an old man when I was young and I am not young anymore. Why would we think he knows anything about Iraq?
Terrye, kind of like Goldwater. At one time I admired both men, but then senility set in.
Actually, Kissinger is right now that I have had a chance to sleep on it. Victory in Iraq won’t come from US military action, it will come from Iraqi action. To say that US Military can’t achieve victory is correct but misleading. Maybe a more accurate way to say it is “US Military ALONE can not achieve victory in Iraq”.
Crosspatch,
If all Kissinger is saying is Iraq will be righted by the Iraqis with our help and not by us alone all I can say is “duh!”. Wonder when the epiphany hit him?
The Defeatists Have Taken Over…
Sometimes I want to slap you defeatists upside your head.
Bookmark to:
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Crosspatch
Back to kindeegarten for you. The native Sunnis who don’t like
al Qaeda don’t like us any better. The native Shia who don’t like
al Qaeda and don’t like Sunni nationalists don’t like us either.
What Iraq has in commin with Palestine is this: you couldn’t find
enough America-friendly Arabs in either locale to form a
provincial council let alone a national government. The elected
Iraqi officials “in power” right now do not like us. They are
pro-Iranian admirers of Hezbollah.
Once you get all this straight apply for graduation into the first grade.
No One Recognizes al-QaedaÂ’s Islamic State in Iraq…
The people of Ramadi are especially upset that al-Qaeda seeks to use their city as their capital. Our army is helping Iraqi Sunnis to root out and kill al-QaedaÂ’s dream state. IÂ’ve been waiting for us to rebuke al-QaedaÂ’s claims,……
No One Recognizes al-QaedaÂ’s Islamic State in Ira…
IÂ’m here to announce the creation of a new Islamic state within Iraq. The borders of which extend all the way to the four corners of this room.
But just effing look at me. This place is crawling with American and Iraqi troops, so much so that I ha….
Dear Strata Sphere.
Since you are not in Iraq, and you don’t take advise from any expert… From where do you get your so called “facts”…. The Ouija board?
RE: flopping Ace
“Sometimes I want to slap you defeatists upside your head”
If your definition of “defeatist” is any one that agrees that we should change course in what is obviously a quagmire from hell , then I am afraid you are going to loose your hand with all the slapping.
Me…. I would just want to slap the hell out of Bush and the 10 or so Neo-Cons that put us in Iraq in the first place.
I submitted a piece yesterday or perhaps Saturday to Strata interviewing the CIA’s Hayden on al Qaeda in Iraq. Hayden said
96% of the anti-American insurgency was non al Qaeda native Iraqis,most Sunnis a scattering of Shia. The remaining 3.8% were
1300 al Qaeda.
From these 1300, Strata has sustained a popular neocon website
pretending they are the chief problem in Iraq and prepared to takeover America if “the Democrats hand over Iraq to al Qaeda.”
Of course the Hayden story, as scores of others since 2003 of similar
data, are of little use to Strata’s hype factory so he ignored them all.
RE: Crosspatch.
Since you believe that “victory” can be achieved in Iraq please answer these questions.
As you know there are aproximately 350,000 Iraqi soldiers now in a position to help us correct?
The Prime Minister of Iraq, Al Malaki urgently needs to start disarming the Al Sadr Shiite Militias …. So now here’s the question…
How comes that Al-Malaki IS NOT DISARMING the Shiite militias?
Is rather simple my friend. Let’s find out once and for all to whom does Al-Malaki owes allegiance…. The good old U.S.A. ….. Or The Nut Cleric Al Sadr and his tens of thousands of Shiite militias.
I’ll give you a hint on this one… Al-Malaki is Prime Minister because he has the support of Al Sadr.
And that takes me to one more question for you…. Say again how do you accomplish “victory”? …. By supporting Al-Malaki’s Government that is supported by a bunch of mad clerics like Al Sadr… Is that your victory Sir?
Good man .. Our soldiers … Die every day so that we can support a Government that is backed by a nut Shiite cleric allied with Iran!!! Not true Sir? … Like I said, is easy to find out… All we need to do is ask Al-Malaki to start disarming Al Sadr militias if he does then we stay, if he does not we would be fools to stay. .. For we would only be giving our blod and treasure so that the Iranians can inherit Iraq.
By the way your long blog about Ramadi was very illustrative as to what lengts some people will go to avoid reality. The battle for Iraq Sir, is in Bagdhad not in Ramadi. Ramadi is at best a side show. … And we are loosing in Ramadi also hopes aside, and desperation from locals aside.