Dec 01 2006
Now If it Was An Assassination Attempt On Litvinenko…
I have been exchanging emails with a very interesting person who agrees with Clarice Feldman and disagrees with me on whether this entire event was an assassination attempt or not. The reason this person is interesting is she is a well known liberal writer and, while disagree on the motivations, she and I agree on all the questionable reporting. Well this person just emailed me one of the best theories I have ever seen that explains HOW the Polonium-210 might have been delivered so as to kill and leave little trace, and to get Scaramella and Litvinenko and Berezovsky all at once.
The creator of this excellent theory is none other than Raw Story’s Larisa Alexandrovna, and she presents her theory here at her blog:
Now many people have argued that because this is so obvious, it could not have been Putin or FSB without Putin. But people fail over and over to grasp what I have already reported and believe given the people with whom I had talked: this was not meant to be traced, they thought they could get away with it. So, if you had something that you thought no one would be able to trace and you wanted to take out three very visible targets, would you not do it? Ah, exactly, FSB would do it, but they must have miscalculated on the dosages.
…
If Mario is not involved, but contaminated, what did he share with Alex and when? The same question applies to Alex’s wife. What was it, a cup? No, because Mario did not go home to visit Alex’s family.
How about this:
A cigarette. In fact, a cigarette would be an extremely powerful way to distribute the polonium via air, causing another to inhale it. But since the only people that would inhale for any real duration would be people in close proximity to the victim, it is certain to do the trick as smoking at most places is not allowed and also because in small vapor qualities it would not be necessarily lethal, so not too much of a danger to the British public, although somewhat of a danger if things went badly.
This a bit of brilliant thinking. I mentioned myself that if Litvinenko and Scaramella were exposed at the same time, an airborne agent would make sense with the lesser (more dispersed) dose for Scaramella. In the true sense of serendipity, I was sent an email a few days ago by blogger AJacksonian regarding an 1987 study regarding Polonium-210 found in Syrian cigarettes. At the time I dismissed this since Polonium-210 is a natural element and it can be found in lots of places – but the point is it can be hidden in cigarettes (I of course emailed this to Larrisa).
Now if we combine Larrisa’s theory on the delivery mechanism with reader Crosspatch’s notes that Polonium-210 would best be brought in disoved in an acid-salt (probably in crystal form since liquids can be dodgy these days on plays) we have enough pieces to put together a good scenario. The Polonium suspension is possible what spilled in the Millenium hotel. Once in a liquid form of sufficient density of Polonium it one would simply need a syringe to deposit some of the suspension down the center of a cigarette and there you go.
Now do I believe this is what happened? Nope. But it is the first good theory that shows a sophisticated assassination plan, not some half baked one. I do not think the air plane contamination can be explained this way. And cigarettes would not explain the contamination in the planes or the Hotel where the Russians where staying. But you have to admire the beauty of the concept!
Was there a toast at the hotel? Check the vodka.
back to the murder theory:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2482990,00.html
Detectives believe that a sizeable team travelled from Russia to smuggle the polonium-210 into Britain and shadow Litvinenko. There is a suspicion that Litvinenko’s mobile telephone was bugged and the surveillance team knew of his meeting with the Italian security expert, who had taken part in a parliamentary investigation in Rome into KGB dirty tricks.
Alqueda participitation with Chechnian terrorists is well documented. Could this be the source of nuclear radiation they have been waiting for? Maybe for dirty bomb? Is this substance Po-210 a liquid type of substance? Does it have enough radiation that if they explode a plane in a city they could contaminate asignificant area?
guess he won’t be getting a proper moslem buriel per the NYTimes:
All the pathologists wore protective clothing. Alex Goldfarb, a close friend of Mr. Litvinenko’s who has emerged as a family spokesman, said that he had been told that his friend’s body would have to be sealed in an airtight container and that it was so contaminated that it could not be cremated for 22 years.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/02/world/europe/02spy.html?hp&ex=1165035600&en=a3f2bd187be87572&ei=5094&partner=homepage
“Could this be the source of nuclear radiation they have been waiting for?”
That thought crossed my mind.
“Maybe for dirty bomb?”
Possibly. Could be dispersed without explosives, though. I remember a case recently where UK police raided a place looking for some sort of dispersal apparatus.
“Is this substance Po-210 a liquid type of substance?”
In its native form it is a metal but it is easily soluble in weak acids. It readily forms such salts as choride, nitrate, and citrate.
“Does it have enough radiation that if they explode a plane in a city they could contaminate asignificant area?”
Possibly.
My current favorite scenario:
Sasha was in the process of obtaining polonium for jihadis and had an accident of some sort that contaminated himself and his friend. The material was probably delivered. It needs to be found.
Not safe to burn for 22 years? That must be SEVERELY contaminated considering the short half-life! We are talking 58 half-lives. That means he wouldn’t be safe to cremate until the radiation has subsided to 1/576,460,752,303,423,488 of its current level. That must be a mistake. The amount of polonium would be a thousandth of its current level in 4 years. In 8 years it would be a millionth (if he ate an entire gram of polonium, there would be a microgram remaining in 8 years) and a nanogram in 12 years and a picogram in 16 years.
Maybe my math is haywire and if I am a couple short of a sixpack feel free to send me a couple more but my math says:
138 days, 1/2 of the polonium has turned to lead.
276 days, 1/4 of the polonium remains.
414 days, 1/8 remains
552 days, 1/16 remains
690 days, 1/32 remains
828 days, 1/64 remains
966 days, 1/128 remains
…
1380 days 1/1024 of the original polonium remains.
So after 3.8 years the remaining polonium is roughly 1/1000 of its original amount. And after 7.6 years roughly 1/1,000,000 if it remains.
If this is the case, he must have eaten a polonium sandwich or drank a quart of polonium punch.
That article must have been exaggerated.
consider the source = it was Goldfarb = perhaps trying to divert attention from his wish to have a proper Muslim burial
Oh, please. Perhaps the person who told them is not good at math.
http://edwardjayepstein.com/Murderhypothesis.htm
Sue–http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2482990,00.html
I’ve already read it. I know your position. Let us play our game until it comes to an end. 😀
*thwack* My point is if there were a number of plotters involved at the times now reports, that might explain why there are so many tracks of polonium..
Folks, this is no laughing matter. If there was more polonium than just what has been discovered so far, its disposition will be seen soon as it is rapidly decaying. If this was indeed a “work accident”, it is the closest thing to divine intervention that I have seen in a long time.
*thwack* received. ::grin::
Crosspatch,
I’m not laughing. I understand the seriousness of the situation, whether Clarice is right or AJ is right. I am just not convinced of either theory yet.
Crosspatch
Your calculations assume a pure po 210 source. Yes you can bombard bizmuth or lead in a cyclotron to obtain a near pure substance but in most cases you will still (especially if it was transmuted in a reactor) get some contamination with po 209 half life 103 years and po 208 half life 2.9 years.
Just a small bit on non purity and overall decay times can be significantly influenced due to the scale of the half life differences.
Interesting. The waitress at the Sushi bar that served him says:
“Just after he came in that day I developed a strange rash over my legs which wouldn’t go. Now I’m terrified it is a symptom of this poisoning.”
One of the symptoms of alpha ray exposure on the skin is a sunburn like rash.
MerlinOS2,
But the other isotopes are not nearly as hazardous and can be, in comparison to 210, be considered negligible. Yes, 209 is an alpha emitter but at a tremendously lower rate … such that it would take a much, much larger dose to hurt someone. It is 210 that is the problem. So my numbers were not really for polonium but, as you point out, for po-210 which is really all I would be interested in at this point as isotopes such as 209 would pose a negligible hazard in the quantities we are discussing.
If true, doesn’t that suggest he was poisoned before he went to the sushi bar?
In other words, both 209 and 210 decay through the emission of an alpha particle but 210 decays much more rapidly so a given amount of 210 would emit many more alpha particles in a given period of time than would an equal quantity of 209.
“If true, doesn’t that suggest he was poisoned before he went to the sushi bar?”
The same article speculated he might have been contaminated as he entered. Perhaps a change in the wind is responsible for the difference in the levels of contamination?