Dec 01 2006
Now If it Was An Assassination Attempt On Litvinenko…
I have been exchanging emails with a very interesting person who agrees with Clarice Feldman and disagrees with me on whether this entire event was an assassination attempt or not. The reason this person is interesting is she is a well known liberal writer and, while disagree on the motivations, she and I agree on all the questionable reporting. Well this person just emailed me one of the best theories I have ever seen that explains HOW the Polonium-210 might have been delivered so as to kill and leave little trace, and to get Scaramella and Litvinenko and Berezovsky all at once.
The creator of this excellent theory is none other than Raw Story’s Larisa Alexandrovna, and she presents her theory here at her blog:
Now many people have argued that because this is so obvious, it could not have been Putin or FSB without Putin. But people fail over and over to grasp what I have already reported and believe given the people with whom I had talked: this was not meant to be traced, they thought they could get away with it. So, if you had something that you thought no one would be able to trace and you wanted to take out three very visible targets, would you not do it? Ah, exactly, FSB would do it, but they must have miscalculated on the dosages.
…
If Mario is not involved, but contaminated, what did he share with Alex and when? The same question applies to Alex’s wife. What was it, a cup? No, because Mario did not go home to visit Alex’s family.
How about this:
A cigarette. In fact, a cigarette would be an extremely powerful way to distribute the polonium via air, causing another to inhale it. But since the only people that would inhale for any real duration would be people in close proximity to the victim, it is certain to do the trick as smoking at most places is not allowed and also because in small vapor qualities it would not be necessarily lethal, so not too much of a danger to the British public, although somewhat of a danger if things went badly.
This a bit of brilliant thinking. I mentioned myself that if Litvinenko and Scaramella were exposed at the same time, an airborne agent would make sense with the lesser (more dispersed) dose for Scaramella. In the true sense of serendipity, I was sent an email a few days ago by blogger AJacksonian regarding an 1987 study regarding Polonium-210 found in Syrian cigarettes. At the time I dismissed this since Polonium-210 is a natural element and it can be found in lots of places – but the point is it can be hidden in cigarettes (I of course emailed this to Larrisa).
Now if we combine Larrisa’s theory on the delivery mechanism with reader Crosspatch’s notes that Polonium-210 would best be brought in disoved in an acid-salt (probably in crystal form since liquids can be dodgy these days on plays) we have enough pieces to put together a good scenario. The Polonium suspension is possible what spilled in the Millenium hotel. Once in a liquid form of sufficient density of Polonium it one would simply need a syringe to deposit some of the suspension down the center of a cigarette and there you go.
Now do I believe this is what happened? Nope. But it is the first good theory that shows a sophisticated assassination plan, not some half baked one. I do not think the air plane contamination can be explained this way. And cigarettes would not explain the contamination in the planes or the Hotel where the Russians where staying. But you have to admire the beauty of the concept!
Doug,
The key word here is “initiate”. What the polonium/beryllium does is acts as a source of neutrons to start (initiate) the chain reaction in the nuclear material. In other words, it provides a burst of neutrons that enhance the chain reaction.
From 2004:
Iran had tried to produce deuterium-tritium gas — with the help of Russian scientists — but had so far failed.
is none other than Raw Story’s Larisa Alexandrovna,
No offenses AJ. but Larisa and her little cyber sleuth and her buddy Larry Johnson had me pegged as a DOD Deiblod employee plant frown Diebold or DOD or something.
I am housewife like.
Anyways, when I see Larisa Alexandrovna I think what my grandpa the engineer made, SALT.
“What if journalist Seymour Hersh, former CIA agent Valerie Plame Wilson, and former vice president Al Gore were poisoned within rapid succession of one another and strong circumstantial evidence suggested that President Bush was behind all three murders? Do you think the European political class would react a bit more intensely than they have been reacting to President Putin’s recent impersonation of Tony Soprano”
http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2006/11/30/if-george-did-it/
Larry Johnson brings all kinds of Credibility (problems) to the table!
I don’t think Valerie Plame is a valid comparison. All she has done is said Bush outed her, she hasn’t made any claims that we did something along the lines of blowing up an apartment building.
Now if Dana Priest, Larry Johnson, and Al Gore all showed up dead, people might start to wonder … after the celebrations died down enough for people to take stock of the situation. But yeah, I get the point. Still … polonium as a poison? There are much easier and cleaner ways if it is Putin.
Actually Clarice I was sort of hoping old Joe would come forward to say that Iran wasn’t looking for yellowcake either since they have a domestic source.
Since Putin’s men have access to the equipment needed, maybe they thought the 30 day time delay feature was worth the extra trouble?
Whatever Joe says, I’ll believe.
Ela is convinced Litvinenko’s meal can only have been spiked AFTER it was presented to him.
She said: “The food is prepared in the kitchen and is put in a box with a clear lid, which is sealed with a label.
“I know everyone in the kitchen and there’s no way they would be involved in this. Once the box is sealed it is taken straight to the customer.
“At one time I think Mr Litvinenko went to the toilet, leaving his food on the table. I suppose anyone could have slipped something in then. The place is very busy. No one would have noticed.
CP
Your issue is you are still trying to deal with a nuclear material as a weapon of choice to take out an individual.
Po 210 would have to be calculated very carefully to start with to not cross the border to general contamination. Beyond that you would have to calculate the timing in that from the production source to the time of application you would have nuclear decay due to the half life. Since it is on the scale of nuclear half lives relatively short then you introduce more uncertainty an thus the natural tendency to up the dose to achieve the desired result and by the same token increase the risk of undesired side issues.
So effectively you end up with the tendency to try to be hunting quail with a howitzer. Not a pretty alternative.
Could be a demonstration that the NeoSovs are back up to KGB Standards of sophistication.
CP
If I wanted to take someone out, would I care if it was an alpha emitter, a beta emitter or a gamma emmitter?
Tell me how many sushi bars do you know with gheiger counters. I bet you can count them on one hand.
You still are drifting into the intentional takeout of someone with this being the item of choice.
Their only hope is that it was effective and concealed with no chance of attribution.
Even with that condition then you have to deal with connection analysis.
Chetynea is a non starter, I don’t see them as having lines of centrifuges running to enrich uranium.
Po 210 is an old style trigger item when mixed with several other items. It is old old hat.
It is a rare in this world item.
If you wanted to build a dirty bomb, you want something you can obtain on the black market in kilogram quantities not micrograms.
TSK9,
I was surprised that Larissa contacted me too – and we are in violent disagreement on this subject. But you have to give credit when it is due and the cigarette idea was good. It takes so little Polonium to kill you can get it into a cigarette filter (or tabacco, we are talking volumes that would not seep to the paper and stain) and it would do the rest.
The entire problem with the assassination theory is the Polonium-210. It has never been used as a weapon, no one knows how it works on people (slow or fast or at all). It a pain to deal with personally. It is hard to get and is expensive (which leaves a trail of its own). It must be smuggled in (good assassins use materials in-country, living off the land). And it is completey traceable (nuclear materials are traceable to their origins – trust me).
That is why this is not likely an assassination. Now, which story is the least bothersome to have out in the public? A rogue assassin team which left country, or a contraband market on nuclear materials in the center of London? For Blair and West the answer is obvious.
I think the most important thing revealed by this murder is how unstable Russia is. These waring factions in the new KGB have access to all the nuclear material and can create a nuclear holocaust . They can sell it to Alqueda or anyone interested in killing people. It’s time the west presures Russia to control all this material. They have made a lot of money with oil. If they own it they should be held responsible to protect these areas and also held reponsible for what happen to other countries with their material.
Clarice those killer whales should not be in those swimming pools. I have seen them in the wild many times and they are majestic animals.
It’s time to turn them loose.
AJS: some articles are saying that the stuff entered the country on Oct 25 from Moscow – I think the operation involved bringing the stuff to Chechans in London. In my mind, Litvinenko is seeming more and more to have been a patsy of the Chechans.
If one wanted to murder some slowly and with no evident trace, it might be a fine method to use because it would kill silently over a long period of time. (That sadly seems to be what has happened with Scaramella.) If OTOH one wanted to terrorize one’s opponents, a larger dose like that administered to Litvinenko will fill the bill.
Trepashkin says a special FSB hit team to get Litvinenko was formed in 2002..If so, they should have by now developed very sophisticated ways of tracking and posioning him.
AJ and I have opposing views about what happened here, but in either ecenario it is important to find out who brought the stuff in and where did they get it.
Where does the Proliferation Security Initiative fit into this?
I wonder….
We need to know all the facts…to, obviously, stop this from re-occuring…AND to wake the disbelievers ((of the WOT) up!
AP reporting 4 greeks being tested nothing futher
” I think the most important thing revealed by this murder is how unstable Russia is. ”
I say that is not so. At least not yet.That would be so *IF* what we are seeing is a poisoning but rogue elements but while there has been a lot of speculation in that direction, there is no proof.
Putin has access to better, cleaner methods if it was done by the state. Same is true for rogue elements in the security services.
I am wondering if Russia can be trusted with a nuclear program at this point, though, if it has been penetrated by organized crime.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyid=2006-12-02T164139Z_01_L02113708_RTRUKOC_0_US-BRITAIN-POISONING.xml&src=rss&rpc=22