Dec 01 2006
Now If it Was An Assassination Attempt On Litvinenko…
I have been exchanging emails with a very interesting person who agrees with Clarice Feldman and disagrees with me on whether this entire event was an assassination attempt or not. The reason this person is interesting is she is a well known liberal writer and, while disagree on the motivations, she and I agree on all the questionable reporting. Well this person just emailed me one of the best theories I have ever seen that explains HOW the Polonium-210 might have been delivered so as to kill and leave little trace, and to get Scaramella and Litvinenko and Berezovsky all at once.
The creator of this excellent theory is none other than Raw Story’s Larisa Alexandrovna, and she presents her theory here at her blog:
Now many people have argued that because this is so obvious, it could not have been Putin or FSB without Putin. But people fail over and over to grasp what I have already reported and believe given the people with whom I had talked: this was not meant to be traced, they thought they could get away with it. So, if you had something that you thought no one would be able to trace and you wanted to take out three very visible targets, would you not do it? Ah, exactly, FSB would do it, but they must have miscalculated on the dosages.
…
If Mario is not involved, but contaminated, what did he share with Alex and when? The same question applies to Alex’s wife. What was it, a cup? No, because Mario did not go home to visit Alex’s family.
How about this:
A cigarette. In fact, a cigarette would be an extremely powerful way to distribute the polonium via air, causing another to inhale it. But since the only people that would inhale for any real duration would be people in close proximity to the victim, it is certain to do the trick as smoking at most places is not allowed and also because in small vapor qualities it would not be necessarily lethal, so not too much of a danger to the British public, although somewhat of a danger if things went badly.
This a bit of brilliant thinking. I mentioned myself that if Litvinenko and Scaramella were exposed at the same time, an airborne agent would make sense with the lesser (more dispersed) dose for Scaramella. In the true sense of serendipity, I was sent an email a few days ago by blogger AJacksonian regarding an 1987 study regarding Polonium-210 found in Syrian cigarettes. At the time I dismissed this since Polonium-210 is a natural element and it can be found in lots of places – but the point is it can be hidden in cigarettes (I of course emailed this to Larrisa).
Now if we combine Larrisa’s theory on the delivery mechanism with reader Crosspatch’s notes that Polonium-210 would best be brought in disoved in an acid-salt (probably in crystal form since liquids can be dodgy these days on plays) we have enough pieces to put together a good scenario. The Polonium suspension is possible what spilled in the Millenium hotel. Once in a liquid form of sufficient density of Polonium it one would simply need a syringe to deposit some of the suspension down the center of a cigarette and there you go.
Now do I believe this is what happened? Nope. But it is the first good theory that shows a sophisticated assassination plan, not some half baked one. I do not think the air plane contamination can be explained this way. And cigarettes would not explain the contamination in the planes or the Hotel where the Russians where staying. But you have to admire the beauty of the concept!
Nevermind, I just read the thread over at Tom’s site. It seems we disagree. I don’t think Putin would be responsible for an assassination that is going to point directly back at him and leave a trail back to Moscow. If so, some serious security service purges are in the offing because that is pure incompetence.
Hi, and thank you!
I’m enjoying reading everybody else’s theories, because my view is pretty boring, CP: I think it’s a clumsy hit, ordered by Putin. Whether it’s state-sponsored, or mafia working for Putin or a go-between, is the biggest question to me.
But that’s hardly a foregone conclusion, so I’m trying to keep an open mind on the topic. Litvinenko’s line of work and almost all of his associates are so shady, that it seems at this point the investigation could go in almost any direction.
On this thread — http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/3041#comments — I think another poster named Barbara did an admirable job linking all the contamination sites in a fairly plausible timeline for the “workplace accident” hypothesis that you like.
If this was a murder, I’m most hung up brainstorming ideas for what type of delivery system was used for the polonium, and think the most likely would be some sort of liquid solution in a small canister-type spray bottle, like this:
http://www.wineultra.com/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWPROD&ProdID=2587
These are very small, and could almost be mistaken for a breath spray.
I apologize in advance if my links throw us off format.
CP, we cross-posted. Actually, I think Putin is so audacious that I don’t think he would really care. But if he ordered this, I think it’s just as likely that he had no idea that the polonium would leave such a hot “scent” everywhere it went, making it easily traceable. Or maybe he didn’t know the details. It could be any number of possibilities.
If he ordered a hit I don’t think he would be aware of what method would be used, he would trust his security service to carry it out. They have labs staffed with people who develop poisons for a living. One of those poisons would likely be used else there is no sense in having such a lab and paying such people to develop them.
I don’t see this as a government hit.
Let’s suppose Putin has a cadre of thugs linked to the Russian mafia who do this stuff for him–as a means of evading the regular state services which might be leaky…
Let’s suppose Litvinenko was obtaining polonium for Chechens and accidently released some of it. That is a more likely scenario in my opinion.
Clarice, that’s exactly what I’m thinking. Or it might be a combination of both… maybe the poison solution comes from an FSB lab, but it’s handed off to Igor Bozovsky, a clutzy mafia clown, and we know the rest.
Not sure why, but I am only able to post on this thread. Is that typical for blogs, or is something wrong with the way I’m accessing this site?
I think there was someone in place in London who had bugged Litvinenko’s mobile phone and was tracking him. I think the stuff was transported in on October 25 by one or both of the two Russians who flew to London that day from Moscow. I think they handed it over to Mr. One who administered it, but not after one of those guys had an accident in the Millenium hotel room.
I think Litvinenko had a short meeting in the Millenium bar with these guys before he headed over to the meeting with Scaramella. I think the polonium was administered then. Either he or the bungler peed (emicterated if you must) in the urinal off the bar at the time.
I do not know how the polonium was “delivered”. It could have been in a cigarette or in tea or coffee or a spray. Somehow–perhaps thru contact with bungler– he also got some on his clothing and some of that got into Scaramella (or maybe he sneezed or coughed in close proximity to Scaramella). I think those tracks all over Mayfair are not from Litvinenko alone–but from bungler’s clothing and shoes, too.
I have a feeling bungler is not in very good shape right now.
CP, I do hope you’re wrong. But if you aren’t, I hope further that every resource available is hot on the trail.
What theories would explain why Russian officials flatly deny any polonium 210 is missing, when its source is supposedly tracked to one of their nuclear facilities?
Clarice, our theories are about the same.
mariposa, I do not know why you cannot post on the other threads..this site often is hinky that way.
Supposedly is the key word. We have one report from one newspaper that a lot of other newspapers have reprinted. We have no word from any government official to that effect. Only unnamed “reports” without any official government confirmation. This “report” has almost taken on the mantle of “fact”.
I would wait until there is a name attached to these reports. Also, how are the denials worded and who issued them? Point is that we can speculate at a mile a minute but an investigation progresses rather slowly.
I would not be the least bit surprised to learn that the material was made at a Russian facility. The facility mentioned in the reports doesn’t produce polonium according to the government so possibly someone at that power station was making a little money on the side by producing polonium for fun and profit and splitting the proceeds with other researchers there to keep them quiet. Polonium isn’t generally made in run-of-the-mill power plants, but at special research reactors. Anything is possible, though, and that reactor might have been built with the necessary chamber to expose things to neutrons.
Seems odd to me how we could “fingerprint” polonium to a place that had never made polonium before if that is the case, though.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if the polonium was of Iranian origin and was on its way to the Chechens.
The major trouble with this story is there has been so much speculation and so many people speculating on speculation that the original speculation then take on a role of “fact”. We need to back up and wait for some official word. So far what we know is:
One person is dead, several other people and places have been exposed to varying degrees. It doesn’t look like a tightly targeted dose but more like some kind of leak that was spread all over the place.
I should tell you that in the early 1980’s when my office (DoJ’s OSI) was traveling throughout the USSR gathering evidence Krasnoyarsk was off limits to us. I do think it was a major military research facility.
Yes, we are all speculating on limited (not necessarily reliabel) information, but so what?
Zheleznogorsk (Russian: ЖелезногоÌÑ€Ñк; approx. 56.0° N 93.1° E) is a closed town in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia, with a developed nuclear industry. It was formerly known as Krasnoyarsk-26. Population: 93,875 (2002 Census).
Wikipedia
I have seen printed articles that the polonium also came from China. I saw Krasnoyarsk mentioned in one article but the first article I saw mentioned a different place and clearly said it was a power plant, not a research reactor. But research can be done at a power plant if it was built with the needed facilities, I suppose.
The article in the Evening Standard that was the first I am aware of to say it was a Russian power plant doesn’t name a facility. Point is that I am hearing all kinds of stuff.
In fact, I just read another story that repeated the Evening Standard report and added that the government source of that report decined to name the plant so at this point I would say any specific names of plants in Russia is likely to also be speculation.
CP, that’s always the way reported mysteries seem: we try to figure out the big picture from a lot of little, fuzzy dots of information, and then it turns out many of those dots are either in the wrong place, completely off, or journalistic speculation. I think the only reason we know anything about this investigation is that public input is needed. Your scenario is the most nightmarish, so nothing at all personal, but I would like very much for you to be wrong. Still, it would be very blind not to look closely at the possibility of an accident in transporting dirty bomb materiel. The authorities need to figure out every aspect of this case ASAP.
Were there two or three guys that Litvinenko met at the Millennium? I have read three names in various sources: Andrei Lugovoy, Dmitri Kovtun and Vycheslav Sokolenko. Clarice, I agree with you. One of those dudes is probably not feeling so hot right now. Or maybe he’s feeling glowing hot, but wishes he wasn’t. If he’s even alive.
Here is the bottom line that worries me. Some people seem as if they want Putin to be behind this and so are approaching things from that angle rather than with an open mind. They are looking for ways to connect things to Putin rather than simply looking at the pieces as they are and trying to see what picture they make.
The picture I see so far is one of the sloppiest assassination ever pulled off if that is what it is. There is poison all over the place. Granted, some of it would have been deposited wherever the Russian urinated but there appears to be polonium in many different places. Putin would have resources available to him that would allow him to do a much cleaner job. The FSB could do a cleaner job. My aunt Maisey could do a cleaner job wacking over the head with a fruitcake.
In other words, it just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to link it back to Putin at this stage. I am not saying it won’t end up there, just that at this point there isn’t enough information to jump to that conclusion and there is enough suspicion in my mind as to other possible causes.
We have a recent convert to Islam who is sympathetic to the Chechen cause who might have access to people who are engaging in illicit nuclear materials trade. That right there would give me reason to take a hard look at all the pieces before jumping to any conclusions.
Why would they go through so much to kill ? If it was the KGB was involved they would have used a regular poison or a bullet. This has to becontraband gone bad.
Madsen has a post saying the sushi was plastic wrapped and put in a box in the kitchen before being brought to Sasha. The waitress, a Polish immigrant (a la polonium) says the Po210 could only have been applied afterward. Somehow I’m not surprised Sasha found such a high-security sushi spot, all the diplomats probably happily pay extra for the packaging there.
I just can’t see Scaramella and Litvinenko sitting there while the sushi was spiced with polonium, unless the basement is open to the first floor and someone stood above and sprayed ’em. From the little we know so far it had to have happened at the Millenium prior to sushi. There must be important details we’re unaware of.
If Sasha’s mouth and hands were seriously contaminated and he smoked, or gave Scaramella a cig, maybe that would explain the secondary contamination.
Don’t know what to say about the Muslim angle – seems sort of weird but, more importantly, how bad are his “extremist” friends?