Dec 03 2006
Litvinenko, Al Qaeda & The Bomb
As many who read this site know, I have found the idea that Litvinenko was assassinated a bit far fetched. Most of my doubts surround the supposed weapon of choice: Polonium-210. Assassins would plan and determine their weapon of choice based on efficacy and risk. The underlying driver is to succeed and not get got.
Until Litvinenko, no one knew what would happen to a human contaminated with high doses of Polonium. At no matter what the process would be, it would be a slow process as all radiation exposure is. To bypass uncountable other methods and go with an untried substance is not the signature of a professional hit. Besides, Polonium is traceable to the source and no one can miss the signs of radiation poisoning in the body. Additionally, assassins would not want to have to smuggle their weapons in, preferring to ‘live off the land’ with something not traceable back to them. And if an assassin does smuggle a weapon in they would never smuggle it on themselves, but would send it an independent route so that it could never be tied to them if detected.
Finally, if it only takes a small amount to kill a human, why was there so much more material involved in this incident? Why was there orders of magnitude more Polonium-210 than would be the preferred dose for a silent killer (think of the level Scaramella was contaminated with)? Could it be because the amount required for a dirty bomb or nuclear trigger is so much more than needed to kill one person?
I have been of the mind that the Polonium was tied to some nuclear device or contraband. It would seem much more logical that the accident that killed Litvinenko was in relation to transporting an illegal substance. The Putin angle was just something Litvinenko and Berezovsky came up with – in case he did succumb to the contamination. That is why the PR firm was called in and the assassination claim only came out after Litvinenko died. Up until then there was no reason to go to the fall back plan where Litvinenko takes one last desparate swipe at Putin as he dies.
Now we see some reporting that supports this theory, possibly from sources associated with the government and aware of the investigation:
Scotland Yard detectives are now trying to discover if he had any secret links with Islamic extremist terror groups.
Their biggest fear is that the former Soviet spy, who died of polonium-210 poisoning in a London hospital, may have been helping Al Qaeda terrorists or other extremist groups get hold of radioactive material to be used in a devastating “dirty†atom bomb.
…
Litvinenko’s sympathies with Chechen rebels, seeking to break away from Moscow and create an independent Muslim state, are well known.
And when Chechen rebels were blamed for a massive bomb attack in 1999 that destroyed a Moscow block of flats with the loss of 400 lives, Litvinenko enraged Russian President Vladimir Putin with his claim that the Russian leader himself ordered the attack in a bid to damage the Chechen cause.
These wild claims by Litvinenko are akin to those strange people who believe Bush knew about 9-11 and not only let it happened so he could invade Iraq, but Cheney oversaw the positioning of demolition charges in the Twin Towers to bring them down. Those ridiculous claims about Bush and Cheney are as valid, without real proof, as Litvinenko’s claims regarding Putin and the apartment bombings in Russia in 1999. Litvinenko was as serious a threat to Putin as some of those wild-eyed conspiracists are to Bush – none whatsoever.
What is disturbing is that the investigation has moved to the US in some manner:
British officers, who are being assisted by the FBI, have interviewed ex-KGB officer Yuri Shvets in Virginia, the police official said. Shvets had claimed to have compiled a dossier on criminal charges made by Russian prosecutors against figures connected to the Yukos oil company.
Former Yukos shareholder Leonid Nevzlin, a Russian exile living in Israel, told The Associated Press last week that Litvinenko had given him a document related to the charges.
Nevzlin — charged by Russian prosecutors with organizing murders, fraud and tax evasion — claimed the inquiries may have provided a motive for the ex-spy’s murder.
Needless to say I am not thrilled this incident has moved to my backyard. One thing to note is one of the situations I predicted would come true has, apparently Lugovoi has tested positive for contamination as well.
The police were giving nothing away about the identity of their target. But The Sunday Times has established that a former Russian agent called Andrei Lugovoi, who was known to Litvinenko, stayed in the hotel in the days before November 1 and that he is — he says — significantly contaminated with polonium.
Lugovoi is no Putin ally. And, as I mentioned in my theory of what happened Lugovoi was on fairly good terms with Berezovsky as well. Something is definitely afoot, as MI5 has someone in custody (protective or otherwise) linked to the incident.
BRITAIN’S domestic security service MI5 has detained a man thought to have significant information about the apparent radiation death of Alexander Litvinenko, newspaper reports said yesterday.
The reports quoted an unnamed senior government source saying the man was taken into custody in east central England last week.
“MI5 don’t arrest people,” an unidentified security source said. “When people are detained by the security services it is because they have come forward to us to give us information.”
It is interesting that the ‘rogue’ element of this (black market in my mind) is becoming more prevalent as the evidence comes out.
Update: I am trying to catch up on all these reports and I missed something very important in the Sunday Times story regarding Lugovoi’s contamination:
Lugovoi has claimed: “Traces were found even on my children and on my wife. To think that I would handle the stuff and put them at risk is simply ludicrous.â€
Note that the contamination was found ‘on’ his family, not ‘in’ them. This would make sense if the material was ‘spilled’ someplace or on something and was then passed physically amongst the people. This, sadly, is what I expected to see from a bungled contraband effort – material everywhere since it was apparently unknown that the container was not sealed properly.
Update: Also note this fact which really kills off the assassination idea:
Polonium-210 of the quantity and purity used to kill Litvinenko is difficult to obtain, and cannot simply be ordered over the internet. The amount used, more than 100 times a lethal dose, implies it was obtained either from a reactor or in an unusually large commercial transaction that “would have raised eyebrowsâ€.
As I mentioned above, if all you need is a small fraction to kill slowly and hope to stay undetected,what was so much Polonium-210 doing in London? If Litvinenko had 100 lethal doses in him, how many doses are there scattered around London and spilled at the Mayfair hotel? You need a lot of Polonium for a terrorsist scheme, not so much to kill one man.
Addendum: I should make sure to note that a smuggling effort would show multiple trails of Polonium entering the UK and possibly one or more trails exiting the UK. This is natural in the case where the smuggling is attempting to collect large amounts of something form numerous small smuggling actions. So as to not put all the risk on one act and to lower the chance of detection. An assassination effort would likely not show the same signature, but it could.
per this account in the Observer Litvinenko does not seem to have all his marbles: (supports my patsy of the Chechens theory)
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1962792,00.html
I have no idea what you are referring to when you say there are reports supporting your theory. Your link doesn’t work and frankly I have seen not a single responsible report pointing in the direction you are heading.
Clarice,
You seem upset that I disagree? BTW, may I note for the record that ‘responsible reporting’ is an oxymoron and that one needs to take the reporting and apply knowledge and experience to the material to see if it is close to reality. In this case the assassin theory simply doesn’t hold up compared to the bungled smuggling theory. They are both viable and neither has been disproved. One just fits the data better.
Why did Drudge, yesterday, have a link that said 4 Greek men have also shown signs of poisoning?
The Blackmarket, out of Russia is HUGE.
And, the “spooks” who run around every single capital, especially in the Mideast; places like Turkey, etc. Are a GIANT VAT OF CONTEMPT.
But never broken into, before.
Great work A/J! You got it right in the beginning, working on hunches, alone. And, now? There’s real talent in “walking back the cat.” Plus, the very perveyors of this Black Market filth, are contaminated, themselves.
“Small fry.” To french fried. And, the story, because the dopes picked Putin’s character to assassinate, turn out to be so way off the mark, they’ve given themselves away.
PLUS? I bet they’re scared, now! Look at the families exposed to cancer fears. Those are real, too.
The times also reports in that 5 page article:
Reid said about 20 sites — more than publicly admitted
So the trail tells more than we know at this point. I still say Litvinenko/Lugovoy work accident – Scaramella is a red herring – wrong place wrong time.
“Until Litvinenko, no one knew what would happen to a human contaminated with high doses of Polonium.”
Joliot Curie.
“…if all you need is a small fraction to kill slowly and hope to stay undetected,what was so much Polonium-210 doing in London? If Litvinenko had 100 lethal doses in him, how many doses are there scattered around London and spilled at the Mayfair hotel?”
It seems misleading to speak of “lethal doses…scattered around London.” It is possible that many of these contaminated sites may not have enough polonium present to constitute a “lethal dose,” or ony if it were somehow scraped together–a process that would be akin to herding cats. In fact, many people have come into contact with the polonium that was “scattered around London” but no one is suggesting that they have a “lethal dose” on their clothing or skin.
I remain a sceptic as to regarding the human agencies involved. It seems clear, however, that the polonium–in order to be ingested by Litvinenko in such massive quantities–was likely administered using some as yet unknown methodology. Who did this and precisely why is still a matter of conjecture. It is worth remembering how unsavory are the connections of both the Russian government as well as those in Litvinenko’s circle of contacts.
I read yesterday-but don’t recall where-Litvinenko had converted to Islam and was working with the Chechens – who, all things considered,would have been logical recipients of a smuggled radioactive material.
I don’t know whether the claim was pure BS, or whether it had some basis in fact.
Does anyone here know ?
By the way,further inquiry into Polonium itself seems in order.Isn’t it also a “decay product” of other metals, such as Plutonium ?
What could Livitnekno have had in his pocket along with the Polonium leaking container that would then end up in his mouth – the cigaret theory doesn’t quite work because the cigarets would be in paper and polonium doesn’t leak through paper – maybe? How about a loose pill that he took with his meal? How about sweetner that he put in his tea – something sticky that the polonium would adhere too – ok that’s enough wackiness for now
Mr.Menganes – two theories he converted and wants an Islamic funeral and the other that he wants a Russian Orthodox funeral – the PR machines are busy
The “conversion” report seems strained. It is based only on one man’s report that he asked someone to read from the Koran to him before he died (maybe a grim insurance policy?). He is having a Russian orthodox funeral and neither his family nor his friend Bulkovsky regard it as more than a fanciful account.
As for the 4 Greeks–it was reported in only one place and seems to be as consistent with accidental ingestion as anything else–I forget the details but it may have been they were in the stadium or something.
AJ, the link doesn’t work..what reports support your theory?
Of all the reporting I’ve seen, the Telegraph and Times seem to have the best information and neither seem to point in the direction you are heading.
(I’m not “upset” that we disagree..I think this kind of give and take is the best way to winkle out thinks.)
The 4 Greeks story:
“Four Greeks were undergoing medical tests for possible contamination by a radioactive substance that killed a former KGB spy in London last month, private Greek television said Saturday.
The four people were recently in London and stayed at the same hotel as Alexander Litvinenko, who died on Nov. 23 after being poisoned by polonium-210, private Antenna TV said, quoting Deputy Health Minister Thanasis Yiannopoulos”
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1164881802256&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
***thinGs, not thinks********
I still think the smuggling angle is interesting, but IMO there would be bigger warnings in London if the contamination was as bad as your theory suggests. I still think that the image of Sasha trailing particles as he walked down the street is a bit of hysteria in the press, there are several places where radiation has been found at low levels and a couple where there were higher levels.
In the hotel they reported statement suggested the original source was present there because the contamination was at a high level, I read that as a high specific activity relative to what’s been found elsewhere not a large amount of contamination – it could be a couple very hot spots on the floor and light switch, but not massive amounts dusting the furniture.
I also still think that if he was trailing particles and died from this sort of contamination, there’s be vastly more contamination on his clothes than what killed him, and there’s no reporting of finding those sorts of levels in his home.
I agree, Jerry.
From what I read good old Sasha was full of himself and felt capable of handling the pol-210. All this cross contamination they are finding is proof that the people who handle it were amateurs. If they wanted to kill him a shot would have beee more than adequate like what has has been done with other dissidents.
He blamed Putin to confuse the investigators but they’ll get to the bottom of this mess.
Polonium has been found in his wife’s urine. I posted a link to that information late in that very long thread from yesterday.
Also, again, don’t assume that all of these places were contaminated in the course of the same incident. If there was smuggling going on over time, places could have been contaminated over the course of time. One place might have been contaminated a week or a month before another place. Only the ratio of polonium to lead would tell you if the polonium in the various places is of different ages.
There is another reason why Putin would never have had this done in this way: An intelligence service doesn’t conduct an operation against an individual in a method that poses a danger to the citizens at large unless they are prepared for an extremely strong response. In this case, Blair has stated that the most important thing in all of this is to maintain British lips firmly on the Russian rump but generally a country doesn’t expose another country’s citizens to the strongest carcinogen known to man without a serious risk of a vigorous response from that country.
If this was an assassination why would there be 20 contaminated sites? That would be widespread for one vial of polonium and major bungling by the perpertrators and as AJ says needlessly expensive. It would be dumb to bring that much polonium into Britain for one hit or even two or three. I doubt Putin would okay speading $100,000.00 on one hit with the chance of this volatile substance leaking out all over London and endangering so many people. The news on this is extremely widespread and would be detrimental to relations with other countries if he had done this. Even if it was a hit and had not contaminated so many sites his death would still be slow and he could talk his head off in the interim. This would be news whether professionally done or not. Just the idea that the polonium was out in the open and used for such a scheme would be scary. That is why I feel this was a ongoing black market scam with multiple shipments.
Should be $100,000,000.00