Dec 05 2006
Iran And Polonium-210
One angle which has not been explored sufficiently is that of Iran and Polonium-210. It was reported back in Feb 2004 that Iran has produced Polonium as part of their nuclear production efforts:
WASHINGTON, Feb 24 (AFP) — Iran produced and experimented with polonium — used in the timing of nuclear explosions — some time ago, but says it was not used for such purposes, The Washington Post said Tuesday.
The International Atomic Energy Agency will include Iran’s experimentation with polonium in a report to be submitted this week at the United Nations, two people familiar with the report told the daily.
Iran has submitted to IAEA inspections to show the world it does not have nuclear weapons ambitions, but its dabbling with polonium coupled with the IAEA’s discovery of components for an advanced uranium-enrichment centrifuge have raised serious doubts about Tehran’s forthrightness.
Iran has acknowledged the experiments with polonium but has offered an explanation involving another of polonium’s possible uses, including power generation.
The IAEA has left the issue “hanging there,” one person familiar with the matter told the Post.
He said the experiments took place “some time ago,” the daily added.
Polonium has some industrial purposes, but in combination with beryllium it can be used to ensure the chain reaction leading to a nuclear explosion begins at the right time.
More here with the clear implication that where you find large amounts of Polonium you may find a nuclear weapon. As we all now know Polonium has very limited use in the general commercial market due to its toxicity. So let’s assume the reports that the Russian production of Polonium has been suspended for two years now and all inventories and exports have been accounted for. That would make the Iranians a plausible secondary source. Let’s connect some dots between Russia and Iran’s nuclear program:
Russia and Iran have signed an agreement for Moscow to supply fuel to Iran’s new nuclear reactor in Bushehr.
Under the deal Iran has to return spent nuclear fuel rods from the reactor, which was designed and built by Russia.
The clause is a safeguard meant to banish fears that Iran might misuse the rods to build nuclear weapons, a concern of the US, Israel and others.
The agreement sets out a time-frame for delivery of the fuel, but officials said the dates would be kept secret.
This kind of arrangement is what many on the left might like to see with Iran as opposed to the Bush administration’s efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program. It was hoped this arrangement would avoid Iran having some of the materials to make a nuclear bomb. But it doesn’t appear to address by products that could be made like Polonium-210. And now one more dot for consideration: The Chechen’s:
Iran is secretly training Chechen rebels to enable them to carry out more effective attacks against Russian forces.
Teams of Chechen fighters are being trained at the Revolutionary Guards’ Imam Ali training camp, located close to Tajrish Square in Tehran, the Sunday Telegraph cited Western intelligence reports.
In addition to receiving training in the latest terror techniques, the Chechen volunteers undergo ideological and political instruction by hardline Iranian mullahs at Qom.
The paper noted that this information would not “go down well in Moscow, which regards itself as a close ally of the Iranian regime.â€
This angle deserves a lot more analysis and may explain why the UK’s AWE initially determined that it was a Russian reactor that created the Polonium-210. Maybe it was just a Russian designed reactor located someplace else.
WOG Thanks for the TImes story–the Russians are not cooperating..there will never be a full resolution of this case. Period. Lugovoy will claim he’s too sick–or the Russians will say he is–The FSB will limit and make useless any interrlogation of others. In a few days the Brits will return home empty handed.
Here is a LINK to Lizarde1’s above, it also contains alot of technical stuff too.
and appears to support the heavy Russian Black – but leadership approved – market that would be a bummer if proven true.
Polonium is not produced from uranium ore. It is made from irradiating bismuth. You bombard bismuth with neutrons. A neutron is a neutron is a neutron. There is no difference from a Russian neutron, a Chinese neutron, or an American neutron. You can’t really tell what reactor is was made at
I won’t expose to you the reason I can debunk this but it is wrong.
However I will point you to the fact that the polonium produced by this decay chain is stable and not what we are dealing with here.
The very design of a plant and the type of fuel it uses puts you into a physics configuration like it or not.
Any plant can be backfigured to neutron acceleration efficiency or even neutron availability.
Sorry to say it but some have the likelyhood of none. Others have more.
Physics are physics, like facts, you cant choose your own version and move forward.
Each isotope or combinatorial agregate has a profile. You can trace it back due to the unique exitation energy of the original source.
It is a similar thing to the concept you posted earlier that I did not respond to about alpha activity being a tag of assurrance that you have the bonified goods.
All you would need is an alpha emmiter in enough quantity to give off the same measured dose if that was your only criteria.
Ten times as much stuff which is ten times as weak would by that measure be an acceptable substitute.
Not that it could serve the purpose as a primitive nuclear trigger component, only that it could be an alias that would not be helpful in that regard.
Sir I have a very strong background in the nuclear industry so I am not your casual commenter on this issue.
I also have years of experience in the US Navy nuclear power program and have been responsible for the requirements of transporting for disposal in the proper manner all sorts of items used in the construction , maintanence and eventual retirement of nuclear power sources.
The key element of this story is not if someone was wacked with an element or a bullet.
It is the fact that someone got wacked by an element.
Whether it be from a Putin hit or just a broken jar, it still does not matter.. In either case a country and it’s surrounding population has been put at risk.
If you believe it is an intentional thing to take out one person, then you have to believe they could accept the possibility that by clumping up massive contamination of one person to overkill with a very expensive eliminator that could flood over to many innocent bystanders gets you a lick of sense.
Somehow I would back off from there.
Lugovoi is probably as good as dead anyway judging from how much polonium he was spreading around.
If the smuggling was from cronies of Putin, I wouldn’t expect much help from the Russians. I wouldn’t expect much in any case.
What keeps haunting me is that bragging about blackmail. If word of that got back to the people he wanted to blackmail they would have motive to kill him. If they were smuggling polonium, they would have access to the means. If he were involved in order to document it, they would have opportunity.
I suspect that Lugovoy turns up dead in an elevator shaft or something…anything to keep him from talking and anything to punish him for betraying, yet again.
CP
What keeps haunting me is that bragging about blackmail. If word of that got back to the people he wanted to blackmail they would have motive to kill him. If they were smuggling polonium, they would have access to the means. If he were involved in order to document it, they would have opportunity.
Yes, that is why I suspect that Litvinenko was a target of the Kremlin, he just accidently beat them to it.
Here is a straight paste to Lizarde1′ fascinating article with a lot of tech stuff too (last post with HTML link was eaten by the internet gods – could be a sign)
http://www.ocnus.net/artman/publish/article_26891.shtml
“I won’t expose to you the reason I can debunk this but it is wrong.”
No MerlinOS2, in this case you are wrong.
That is pretty much EXACTLY how it is made.
“Due to its scarcity, polonium-210 is usually produced artificially in a nuclear reactor by bombarding bismuth-209 (a stable isotope) with neutrons. This forms radioactive bismuth-210, which has a half-life of 5 days. Bismuth-210 decays to polonium-210 through beta decay”
http://www.ead.anl.gov/pub/doc/polonium.pdf
So you bombard bismuth-209 with neutrons, it forms bismuth-210 which decays to polonium-210.
I will take your word for your background but in this case it seems you are incorrect. I am not particularly interested in neutron generators for nuclear weapons. In this case I am interested in the application as a poison only.
Amazing to me is that Lugovoi who says he thinks he knows who did it but won’t tell feels safe at all in Moscow and is happy to stay there and die there probably soon – he was at the British Embassy after his return and could have sought asylum if he were scared – he must be in good with the “alleged murdering Putin regime” to feel so safe from assasination (in one interview he was ensconsed in a 5 star Russian hotel suite). He is the key to this I think but how I can’t quite figure out – was he under threat of blackmail? Did he get all his money from smuggling while the evil Putin regime looked the other way?
BTW
Did a google search on “Aerospas” (which could be a lost in the translation as Aerospace) but “Aerospas” comes up with a few Fuuunnkkeee little results, including an amazon nothing review by a “husam124” (search that! it’s weird too) and just basically turns up untranslated correspond. Weird.
The dinner jacket is feeling his oats:
Speaking shortly before senior diplomats from six world powers were scheduled to meet in Paris on Tuesday to discuss sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned the European Union that any punitive measure would be considered an act of hostility by Tehran. “I am telling you in plain language that from now on, if you try, whether in your propaganda or at international organisations, to take steps against the rights of the Iranian nation, the Iranian nation will consider it an act of hostility,” Ahmadinejad said.
http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level_English.php?cat=Security&loid=8.0.365918357&par=
–He is the key to this I think but how I can’t quite figure out – was he under threat of blackmail?–
How about he had just pulled a double cross on the country that was pulling his string, and is pretending he has done nothing…to the Ruskies…much like Yuri Nosenko did when he went back.
If Lugovoi ends up dead, who does the autopsy?
Again, most governments have “rules” where bodies need to have pieces of paper for funeral homes to “process” the bodies.
I think I remember my ex (a cardiologist), saying that you have to write “causes of death” certificates in black ink. All big countries must have similar laws.
Let alone that Lugovoi makes MONEY by “telling his secrets.” Since he’s not dead, yet. And, the Goldfarb PR drama has made headlines. Why not think that there’s more to this story than we see?
Besides, as I said, Woody Allan had fun with a sneeze.
What were these things? TRIGGERS? Bismuth alone isn’t a threatening substance.
IF, let’s say, mules carry cocaine by swallowing condoms stuff with this stuff. And, then they escrete it. It’s only a problem if the condom bursts while it’s still inside the mule. And, that, too, has happened.
While what’s the threat? All the sites that are turning up “hot” have poisoned innocents? Who later on get leukemia?
What an odd form of terrorism? If people individually get sick. And, don’t attribute it to an “attack” … then the terrorism isn’t noticed.
Now, however? It is.
Yes. There are dead bad guys. And, the future doesn’t look too good to a collection of oligarths. And, their buddies. Litvenenko felt safe enough taking Scaramella with him to a restaurant. Where papers were shown to Litvenenko. Who said “he couldn’t read them.” So they went borokosvski’s office (sorry about the spelling of names) … But the copy machine has residue?
What about the maids at the hotels?
An “accidental breaking of a jar?” Now, I’m not sure. But it seems nobody figures out the “long term harms” of exposure. So the cigarette smoking Litvenenko is also involved with the “broken jar?”
Where this story has many “hot spots” showing up.
How many people are “exposed?” Hospital staff?
Mortuary staff?
You think that word’s are not travelling around a host of routes? Where people come into contact of this stuff “by accident?”
Is Scaramella afraid of medical outcomes? Or is he laughing?
What about Goldfarb?
What’s the size of this “contaminated” ex-pat circle?
And, Russia would always want quid-pro-quo.
How did the “jar breaking” cause the havoc?
And, what’s worth $50-million dollars?
It’s like the Perils of Pauline. Cliff hangers. Tune in again t’marra.
what are “barely detectible levels” in fractions of grams – anybody know? (1 millioneth of a gram is enough to kill you right? – I have trouble with this size thing)
Minute quantities (of polonium) were found at barely detectable levels at localised areas,” said Health Protection Agency spokeswoman Katherine Lewis. “There is no risk to public health.”
Why will Putin help Iran if they are training Chechans?
Now there’s a rational question!
AJ, thanks for giving us all a place to hang out with this wild ride of a story. And I especially appreciate all of you with the backgrounds for it explaining the science involved here. It’s helped my understanding this better.
Clarice, do you think the Scotland Yard investigation in Moscow is essentially over now? What can they really do there?
“Why will Putin help Iran if they are training Chechans?”
Probably for the same reasons Russia always votes at the UN in a way to help Iran. Or for the same reasons that result in the SAM sales to Iran.
mariposa,
Indeed!
“what are “barely detectible levels†in fractions of grams – anybody know? ”
Probably picograms or some fraction of a picogram. It can be determined by measuring the radiation. A given amount of polonium will have a given radiation level so you can convert radiation to quantity. Barely detectible probably means they were barely able to detect any radiation at all. In other words, a harmless quantity.
Sasha’s friend, Yuri Feltshinski, says Sasha was convinced that Scaramella poisoned him… advantage Document Theory! This just happened on Charlie Rose (CNN also had a good Litvinenko show last night).