Dec 06 2006
Scaramella Ready To Talk
Scaramella looks ready to talk and provide evidence. It looks like he has information that points to a large effort (which really stretches the assassination theory to its limits):
The Italian contact of poisoned Russian Alexander Litvinenko claims he has a cache of documentary evidence that could shed light on the case. Mario Scaramella was discharged today from a London Hospital after doctors said the Polonium 210 contamination he had suffered had not led to radiation poisoning.
He told Italian television he had video and audio cassettes and signed written documents linked to the case, and that he would be revealing their contents. Meanwhile in Moscow British detectives are still waiting to interview ex-KGB agent Andrei Lugovoy, who met Litvinenko on the day he fell ill.
Military anaylst Pavel Felgengauer argues that the evidence points to state involvement: “This is the first time there’s a documented case of polonium-210 being used as a poison in world criminal history. And this was done by a big organisation, it’s clear. It couldn’t be done by a sort of group of people. And an organisation that also involved nuclear scientists and a working nuclear reactor and nuclear labs and specialists in different fields. So this is a job for state organisations.” From his death bed Litvinenko claimed the Kremlin was behind the killing, but many analysts suspect a more complex power struggle involving rival power blocs.
The idea these people are motivated out of hate of Litvinenko is just ridiculous. Now a smuggling ring where these people can permanently rich I can believe. But all these people were ready to plot to kill Litvinenko??? Please.
Update: Some are doing what they can to correct the media generated misconceptions with some historic facts. A good read on the players involved in this incident.
The orignal story in L’Repubblica yesterday was a bit more detailed about what Scaramella said–he said he had documents in the handwriting of KGB officers on this.
I’ve known about Dmitiri Simes for years – we used to joke in the late 80’s early 90’s that he was a spy (he was active among certain neocon circles) but his analysis of the media coverage is good.
Neither the Yard nor the agency could say whether any had been found at the Parkes Hotel, Knightsbridge, or at offices in Cavendish Place, Mayfair – Guardian yesterday so we still don’t know about these places from the 16th
“Military anaylst Pavel Felgengauer argues that the evidence points to state involvement: “This is the first time there’s a documented case of polonium-210 being used as a poison in world criminal history. And this was done by a big organisation, it’s clear. It couldn’t be done by a sort of group of people. And an organisation that also involved nuclear scientists and a working nuclear reactor and nuclear labs and specialists in different fields. So this is a job for state organisations.â€
See, this is the kind of basic assumption that leads people down the path of conspiracy theories.
“And this was done by a big organisation, it’s clear.”
It is? How? Yeah, possibly a big SMUGGLING organization. We have been hearing reports for quite some time of black market transactions from the former Soviet Union.
“It couldn’t be done by a sort of group of people. And an organisation that also involved nuclear scientists and a working nuclear reactor and nuclear labs and specialists in different fields.”
*sigh* … yes to PRODUCE polonium, that is true. To divert and smuggle it, not so much. Imagine you have a connection who is a research scientist with a legitimate need for the stuff in their research who overstates their need for it and obtains some “extra” that is sold on the black market? None of the above organization is needed.
The thing is, polonium decays into plain old lead. So (using goofy units of measure just because they are round numbers) lets say I order 2 grams of polonium. I receive my order and cut it in half. To one portion I add a gram of lead. Now I have 2 grams of 4 month old polonium and 1 gram of “new” polonium. Now I sell the polonium on the black market. How could I do this? Well, lets say my lab has been engaged in some research and had always ordered a gram of polonium a month. Now some project gets cancelled but I continue to order the polonium. Nobody thinks it is strange to get the order and if they check, I have all of the decayed “polonium” in the form of lead.
See, this is the kind of basic assumption that leads people down the path of conspiracy theories.
“And this was done by a big organisation, it’s clear.”
It is? How? Yeah, possibly a big SMUGGLING organization. We have been hearing reports for quite some time of black market transactions from the former Soviet Union.
“It couldn’t be done by a sort of group of people. And an organisation that also involved nuclear scientists and a working nuclear reactor and nuclear labs and specialists in different fields.”
*sigh* … yes to PRODUCE polonium, that is true. To divert and smuggle it, not so much. Imagine you have a connection who is a research scientist with a legitimate need for the stuff in their research who overstates their need for it and obtains some “extra” that is sold on the black market? None of the above organization is needed.
The thing is, polonium decays into plain old lead. So (using goofy units of measure just because they are round numbers) lets say I order 2 grams of polonium. I receive my order and cut it in half. To one portion I add a gram of lead. Now I have 2 grams of 4 month old polonium and 1 gram of “new” polonium. Now I sell the polonium on the black market. How could I do this? Well, lets say my lab has been engaged in some research and had always ordered a gram of polonium a month. Now some project gets cancelled but I continue to order the polonium. Nobody thinks it is strange to get the order and if they check, I have all of the decayed “polonium” in the form of lead.
“It couldn’t be done by a sort of group of people. And an organisation that also involved nuclear scientists and a working nuclear reactor and nuclear labs and specialists in different fields.”
*sigh* … yes to PRODUCE polonium, that is true. To divert and smuggle it, not so much. Imagine you have a connection who is a research scientist with a legitimate need for the stuff in their research who overstates their need for it and obtains some “extra” that is sold on the black market? None of the above organization is needed.
The thing is, polonium decays into plain old lead. So (using goofy units of measure just because they are round numbers) lets say I order 2 grams of polonium. I receive my order and cut it in half. To one portion I add a gram of lead. Now I have 2 grams of 4 month old polonium and 1 gram of “new” polonium. Now I sell the polonium on the black market. How could I do this? Well, lets say my lab has been engaged in some research and had always ordered a gram of polonium a month. Now some project gets cancelled but I continue to order the polonium. Nobody thinks it is strange to get the order and if they check, I have all of the decayed “polonium” in the form of lead.
test. Having trouble posting to this thread. Please forgive the noise.
“It couldn’t be done by a sort of group of people. And an organisation that also involved nuclear scientists and a working nuclear reactor and nuclear labs and specialists in different fields.”
*sigh* … yes to PRODUCE polonium, that is true. To divert and smuggle it, not so much. Imagine you have a connection who is a research scientist with a legitimate need for the stuff in their research who overstates their need for it and obtains some “extra” that is sold on the black market? None of the above organization is needed.
The thing is, polonium decays into plain old lead. So (using goofy units of measure just because they are round numbers) lets say I order 2 grams of polonium. I receive my order and cut it in half. To one portion I add a gram of lead. Now I have 2 grams of 4 month old polonium and 1 gram of “new” polonium. Now I sell the polonium on the black market. How could I do this? Well, lets say my lab has been engaged in some research and had always ordered 2 grams of polonium a month. Now some project gets cancelled but I continue to order the polonium. Nobody thinks it is strange to get the order and if they check, I have all of the decayed “polonium” in the form of lead.
“It couldn’t be done by a sort of group of people. And an organisation that also involved nuclear scientists and a working nuclear reactor and nuclear labs and specialists in different fields.”
yes, to PRODUCE polonium, that is true. To divert and smuggle it, not so much. Imagine you have a connection who is a research scientist with a legitimate need for the stuff in their research who overstates their need for it and obtains some “extra” that is sold on the black market? None of the above organization is needed.
The thing is, polonium decays into plain old lead. So (using goofy units of measure just because they are round numbers) lets say I order 2 grams of polonium. I receive my order and cut it in half. To one portion I add a gram of lead. Now I have 2 grams of 4 month old polonium and 1 gram of “new” polonium. Now I sell the polonium on the black market. How could I do this? Well, lets say my lab has been engaged in some research and had always ordered 2 grams of polonium a month. Now some project gets cancelled but I continue to order the polonium. Nobody thinks it is strange to get the order and if they check, I have all of the decayed “polonium” in the form of lead.
Here’s an argument – – if the choice of motive is between a nearly free state sponsored assassination and an immensly expensive black market smuggling conspiracy… which is more likely?
Sorry CP, you keep nailing the spam filter for some reason.
If Putin were to go crackers and authorize the use of PO-210 as an assassination method, why would he waste it on Litvinenko? Why not go for the bigger fish like Berezovsky or even exiled separatist spokesman Akhmed Zakayev. This smells like a smuggling ring backed by Berezovsky’s money to get the PO into Chechen hands. Only a little on-the-job accident occurred. I wonder if the UK has workers comp?
If this were an unauthorized PO smuggling operation why have the Russian authorities provided so little cooperation to the Brits?
If this was a “accident” within a black market smuggling ring – why have there not been similar “accidents”? From the looks of things the crew handling this highly toxic substance were allegedly imbeciles along the lines of the gang that couldn’t shoot straight. And we are to believe they are part and parcel of a high tech, high $$$ smuggling ring that is so secretive and successful that they have never registered a blip on the radar?
“why have there not been similar “accidentsâ€? ”
Maybe there have been but nobody got enough of a dose to die outright from it. Maybe they just got leukemia or lung or bladder cancer a year or two later.
I don’ t think Iran is purchasing black market PO. I think they are producing their own. I think NK is probably capable of producing their own by now – thanks Bill Clinton.
IMO, take Iran and NK off the list of purchasers.
The whole idea of PO smuggling does not make sense. Not unless you plan to use it within roughly 3 years time. If you are planning an “act” involving PO, you need a source (Non traceable) , a storage area (LOTS of radiation traces), a device manufacturing area(lots of radiation traces) a shit load of money, knowledge of PO so you are not dead before your plan is initiated, and a host of other safeguards. Usually – black market smuggling involves a product with a fast turnover. PO sure ain’t it.
I’m tending to think something else maybe was being smuggled – maybe something much more deadly – and illegal. I think these dupes knew about it, were about to blow it open and they were slipped a mickey of PO210 crystals, went about their helter skelter, hide and seek plans to out the ring leaders and hence the zig zag pattern of exposure. If Iran and NK are purchasing anything on the nuclear black market – it sure isn’t a highly toxic, unstable, unseen, no smell, package that could kill the courier before delivery.
Besides, at this point in the investigation – no Asians or Arabs were in attendance anywhere in the UK – just Russians and the Italian.
I think someone being protected by Russia might know the answers to these questions.
The Russians have never been co-operative on general principles.
I haven’t seen where anyone said Iran or North Korea were the purchasors. I have said they might be the sellers and the Chechens were the buyers.
Maybe this big smuggling organization has never run polonium on the black market before. Maybe that is why this accident happened. Maybe the Chechens and other terrorists have dirty bombs that need a polonium trigger at this time. Maybe the smugglers were told it was a safe product that could be stopped by tissue paper. Maybe this a run that went bad because the people were not experienced in this product.
But then again, maybe this is not a big smuggling organization. Maybe this is a small one time run over a couple of months to get the polonium to the Chechens or another terrorist group planning a dirty bomb in the UK or the planes heading for the US with. My point is that here we have a billionaire who wants power again, a Chechen leader who wants separation from Russia and power, a businessman in Russia with two shady friends who wants most likely more money and maybe revenge and then Linvinenko, a very cocky guy, who probably thought he was smarter than everybody else but who wound up dead. So there you have it, the money, the motive and the means and Litvinenko putting a spoke in their wheels and bringing the whole set up into the open. All these people are spinning like mad.
But I really think these people had no idea the danger this product represented and that is how the accident happened. Unless Litvinenko had become a liability and had to be eliminated. It could be either/or.
This comment must have been lost in space.
Then again, I don’t see Bereszovsky, as rich as he is, spending $100.000.000.00 to snuff out this guy.
I used ti g i ti Russia for trial work for the DoJ.The govt there–and this was still during the cold war, allowed us to interview witnesses ourselves with them present. They provide us with evidence. Once in a while, when it’s in their interest to do, they do cooperate. (And BTW the evidence they provided us was 100% kosher.)