Dec 08 2006
Order Of Contamination
Major Update: Bumping this to the top. As I predicted if this was a smuggling ring exposed by and accidental (and severe) contamination event the Russians involved would start to get seriously ill. We can now add Lugovoi to the list of those with a heavy dose of Polonium. It would seem he and Kuvton were close enough to the event that killed Litvinenko to get a serious contamination themselves. Did they get it at the event or from seeing Litvinenko right after the event. In any case it makes three seriously poisoned people and I would bet more will succumb soon. Now also should consider the scenario were there was more Polonium than just what exposed these people. Did it travel from the hotels and the multiple rooms to points elsewhere? Or was it combined into a single larger stash that is sitting someplace and possibly still contaminating people. This is the problem with this kind of substance – you sort of have to know the trail to detect the traces. So will Berezovsky or someone else show signs of poisoning to further trace the trail? Will someone at the security firms visited by Litvinenko or Lugovoi succumb? More later.
Update: It seems Kuvton is gravely ill and will easily become the second most contaminated victim of this incident. Now the police will need to retrace all his steps on Nov 1 as well. I think they will find he and Litvinenko at the Millenium Hotel sometime prior to the Scaramella meeting. – end update
I am taking a stab at the degree of contamination found to date on people and at locations to give some idea of the distance of a person or place from what I call ground zero, which is where Litvinenko may have been at the center of an accident handling the Polonium. First the human list from worst to least:
(1) Litvinenko with 50-100 times the lethal dose
(2) Kovtun who took ill and could be anywhere from 10-20 times the lethal dose (comparing him to Litvinenko and Scaramella)
(3) Lugovoi has taken ill and seems to be only slighty less contaminated the Kovtun
(4) Scaramella with 5 times the lethal dose, now out of hospital
(5) Marina Litvinenko – not hospitalized like Scaramella, possibly less than a lethal dose
(6) Millenium Bar Staff
This story notes the Millenium bar staff were many 1,000th’s the level found in Litvinenko. If he had 50 times the lethal dose, then they have s than 5% of a lethal dose.
Totally independentally we have contaminated sites in order of a completely “guestimated” contamination level based on how long they were shutdown (or are still shutdown)
(1) Millenium Hotel Room (Oct 30-Nov 3 Period)
(2) Millenium Hotel Bar
(3) Litvinenko Home
(4) Zakayev Car
(5) Sheraton Hotel Room (Oct 25-28 Period)
(6) Sushi Bar
(7) Berezovsky’s office
(8) Parkes Hotel in Knightsbridge (Oct 16-18 Period)
(9) 25 Grosvenor Street
(10) 58 Grosvenor Street
(11) RISC Management on Cavendish Place
(12) 3 2 Airplanes
(13) British Embassy
(14) Arsenal Stadium
These are just my estimates but they are helpful in determining who may bave been contaminated when. For example, I believe Kovtun and Litvinenko are the two prime vectors who were present at the incident in the Hotel room at the Millenium Hotel which appears to be a large, accidental contamination. They in turn trailed Polonium and infected secondary people like Scaramella and possibly Lugovoi. As time passed from the initial incident (which had to happen prior to the meeting with Scaramella) then potency of the trail detoriated. That is why the Millenium Bar staff and Litvinenko’s wife have fractions of a lethal dose and Scaramella as a 5 times a lethal dose.
For the record, I cannot see how all 7 bar staff at the Millenium Hotel Bar could have sniffed ‘vapours’ from Litvinenko’s drink. That seems a bit far fetched that each and every nose made it over his beer. But with Litvinenko, Kovtun and probably Lugovoi all trailing Polonium 210 then there is a more likely scenario for the contamination. I am wondering if these folks all worked behind the bar or serving on the floor (as opposed to in the back). Probably so.
Update: Well that question was answered fast.
Seven workers at a London hotel visited by ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko on the day he was poisoned have tested positive for low levels of radiation.
The Health Protection Agency said the staff who were working at the Pine Bar at the Millennium Hotel in Grosvenor Square on November 1 “appear to have been exposed to low levels of polonium-210”.
A statement said: “There is no health risk in the short term and in the long term the risk is judged to be very small on the basis of initial tests.”
The HPA said it is also testing staff who were working at the bar on October 31 and November 2.
Note they were exposed to low levels. If everyone at the bar was exposed to low levels as well then the poisoning event could not have taken place at the Millenium Bar (which I would wager is what we will find to be the case).
Clarice, is there any other reason than Litvinko and the others saying that he didn’t leave the bar? It is not surprising that, even as he lay dying, he would not want to cause trouble for his colleagues by admitting he was infact in the hotel room.
Lostinthedrift: perhaps they didn’t leave the bar and go to the room at that meeting which took place around 4:30 I think – They may also have met earlier in the day in the room at the Millenium – this earlier meeting would then explain how the stuff got to the Sushi bar by 3 pm without having to involve shadowers.
For those who believe that this was an assassination, would you consider the radiation illness of these other “big players” (I draw a distinction between them and say the bar workers) a result of an assassination attempt on their lives as well, or people who were caught in the crossfire, so to speak? This distinction is important for your hypothesis; it will lead to very different conclusions. I understand that there is no way, with the info that has been reported to make a solid conclusion, but I am curious as to where your thinking has lead so far.
update: Moscow- Andrei Lugovoi, a Russian businessman who met with Alexander Litvinenko the day the former spy was apparently poisoned by radioactive polonium, said Friday night that he had not been questioned by British investigators earlier in the day. Lugovoi, himself a onetime KGB agent, said he felt “fine” and that doctors called his condition stable, the Itar-Tass agency reported.
http://rawstory.com/news/2006/Lugovoi_says_he_was_not_questioned__12082006.html
This is so off topic, AJ may boot me…but could Dean be our democrat meeting with Hamas?
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyid=2006-12-07T204342Z_01_L0796336_RTRUKOC_0_US-EUROPE-SOCIALISTS-US.xml&src=rss&rpc=22
Test.
Lugovoy’s lawyer said he’d been ready to be questioned but the soviet prosecutor had postponed the interrogation.
“For those who believe that this was an assassination, would you consider the radiation illness of these other “big players†(I draw a distinction between them and say the bar workers) a result of an assassination attempt on their lives as well, or people who were caught in the crossfire, so to speak?” Either. It’s too early to determine.
I do not know if the Lugovoy group was also deliberately posioned or poisoned in the course of their being set up. Ditto with Scaramella.
We don’t know what delivery method was used, and until we do–if we ever do–it is impossible to be definitive.
My hunch is the Lugovoy gang was poisoned in an effort to cast suspicion on them as the assassins or because some member of the entourage was involved in the assassination attempt and was not aware of how PO behaves.
My hunch about Scaramella is that he was a cross fire victim.
OTOH it is all together possible that he and Berezovsky were also targets of an assassination attempt but in their case it was less successful.
Good. The story remains interesting. And, because some of the smuglers are getting sick enough that they can’t hide this. And, there’s public scrutiny in both LONDON and MOSCOW; it seems that two countries have seen a smuggling ring “broken.”
Still to discover? HOW the contamination occurred. Since everyone in the “sickness circle” have some idea of whose who. And, whom they were serving. (Don’t bartenders know all?)
Not just dames you can hire for an hour, either.
But “big time,” stuff. Exposed. With the people involved UNAWARE that they were carrying a broken container. Or a few of them.
Then, in death, Litvenenko can’t get his “mosque” burial into the center of the mosque. Where it could be “sent off to paradise.” Why? Because the imam was “afraid” of him still being radioactive.
How odd.
But besides bars, the new-new thing in the world of terror is how accoommodating mosques can be. To “holding” things for future use.
SO? If there was “numerous” deposits made to a “larger bank.” And? The “bank” was in a large mosque. Obviously, that suit case has got to GO. And, fast. Who carried the stuff in? Who goes to find a new home for the “trash?”
And, yes. The Russians are just as concerned, here. I don’t buy this as a “Russian” job! Not with the way the bodies are falling!
Back in the 1960’s, someone got a Ph.D by “examining” the PAWN SHOP busineses in Philadelphia. I’ll never forget that book! Because the New York Times gave it a great review! And, said the public would enjoy it. And, they could ignore the “jargon laden last chapter.”
What I learned? Pawn Shops sell mostly “honest merchandise.” But about 10% of it comes from burglaries. Where the pawn shops buy this stuff from common crooks. And? Coming into the stores, for “bargains” were judges. And, other upstanding citizens.
THE CONCLUSION: Pawn Shops were the UNDER-BELLY of society. Where the good people, and the criminal element BOTH thrived.
Maybe, in the end, the “explosion” of containers were acts of God? And, nobody could have fore-told the consequences? But what a story!
His funeral was not in a mosque. His ceremony was nondenominational in a nondemoninational venue.. An imam spoke there on his own volition and Litvinenko’s widow halted the Russians who wanted to stop him as she felt it would be unseemly to have a fight there.
Krauthammer:
“You don’t need a convoluted device to explain Litvinenko’s demise.
Do you think Anna Politkovskaya, the journalist who was investigating the war in Chechnya, was shot dead in her elevator by rogue elements? What about Viktor Yushchenko, the presidential candidate in Ukraine and eventual winner, poisoned with dioxin during the campaign, leaving him alive but disfigured? Ultranationalist Russians?
Opponents of Putin have been falling like flies. Some jailed, some exiled, some killed. True, Litvinenko’s murder will never be traced directly to Putin, no matter how dogged the British police investigation. State-sponsored assassinations are almost never traceable to the source. Too many cutouts. Too many layers of protection between the don and the hit man. . . . The other reason for making it obvious and brazen is to send a message. This is a warning to all the future Litvinenkos of what awaits them if they continue to go after the Russian government. They’ll get you even in London, where there is the rule of law. And they’ll get you even if it makes negative headlines for a month”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/07/AR2006120701439.html
BTW with Politkovskaya this was the second attempt on her life. FIRST she was poisoned while on an airplane. That meant that someone had to know where she was sitting and carefully poison her tray.
Clarice
“Either. It’s too early to determine.”
Fair enough.
well well well:
Exiled Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky is being investigated in Switzerland on suspicion of money laundering and membership in a criminal organization, Swiss officials said Friday.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/12/08/europe/EU_GEN_Switzerland_Russian_Tycoon.php
WoG, and I agree. And that seems the only logical choice in theories right now, since evidence is still coming in from all sides (along with the same amount of disinformantion and inaccurate reporting), and the most damning evidence is probably not being discussed with the press by government sources, anyway.
Count on it: The radiological hunt for polonium-210 will extend to the United States & Canada
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/Litvinenko
Spy-Games: Litvinenko’s Dirty Bomb Plot??? and Other Theories…
Litvenenko a spy or a failed smuggler? Dirty bombs? Chechyn terrorists? Trail of Polonium 210? Did the Russian Government have anything to do with it? Differing opinions and theories…and even dueling bloggers. Please see my concern and opinion (below…
yikes from above link:
The most disturbing of all resulted from a telephone call I received last evening from a very well-sourced person with a vast array of intelligence throughout the world: “Expect [polonium-210] contamination to be found in the United States.â€
oh that’s Haggaman at homelandsecurityus – he’s a little bit of a nut I think
WTF???? Did you all miss Sue’s link???? Is Howard Dean the treasonous Democrat that met with a Hamas delegation????
Oh I pray to the heavenly lord that it be true. Please Please Please this is what I want for Xmas.
PS: I still think Litvinenk0 was assassinated. :o)
Clarice
If you will read my post again you will see that I was talking about a meeting prior to the sushi bar not after. There is a timeframe from 12:00 to 3:00 not accounted for. He was evidently not contaminiated at 12:00 but was at 3:00 it follows he was contaminated between those times.
Enlightened,
Maybe like me they can’t see it. I didn’t think it went through.
Sue – I saw it fine – I think you might be on to something. I’ve linked it to some other blogs following the story –
Howard Dean meeting with Socialists in the EU – Exactly where the story said Hamas members met with Senior Dems.
I do not think this is a coincidence. I think we need HowDe to clarify the issue asap.
PS: I still think Litvinenko was assassinated. (Trying to stay on topic)