Dec 09 2006
Tea Cup Mystery – Final Clue
Many people are making a lot out of a tea cup at the Millenium Hotel in order to conclude that an assassination attempt must have happened at the Millenium Hotel Bar (despite all the other contaminated sites and people which precede the meeting of Litvinenko with Lugovoi and Kovtun):
POISONED former KGB spy Alexander Litvinenko WAS murdered by radioactive tea, it was revealed yesterday.
Scotland Yard detectives have quarantined cups and saucers which show signs of being heavily contaminated with polonium 210 from the Pines Bar at the Millennium Hotel in Mayfair, Central London.
They are convinced that is where Litvinenko was slipped the fatal dose in a cup of tea during a meeting with former KGB colleague Andrei Lugovoi and his business partner Dmitri Kovtun.
Seven bar staff who served them have been sent home showing signs of radiation poisoning. Colleagues say four are already suffering from a “flu like” illness.
A senior Counterterrorism source said: “It’s now a near certainty Mr Litvinenko was poisoned by having polonium 210 slipped into his drink at the hotel, probably while distracted by a phone call or other interruption. The contaminated staff are those who cleared up the crockery and took it to the kitchens.
“We’ve found a cup almost certainly the one poisoned as it has such a high radiation read out.
First back to chemistry 101. Litvinenko had a large amount of Polonium-210 in his system. Polonium can only be disolved or suspended in an acid solution. When free disolved its radiation effect will effect the solution it is in. I doubt the amount of material we are discussing would not show some physical conditions in a cup of tea, if not something alteration to the taste. The tea cup and its contamination exist. So is this the only possibility that fits the facts? Of course not. It is just another in a long list of events where the news media jumped to conclusions to fit their assumed results. And each time they have had to recreate a new scenario with every new fact that has come out. I am not of the opinion whatever the media says will be valid for less than 5 days in this story.
So let’s work on the smuggling ring assumption and see how this plays out. The tea cup, first off, doesn’t have to have come from the bar but could have come from a room. And we have a room of interest on the 4th floor (supposedly 441) where there is a serious contamination and where speculation has it the poison was mixed. The tea cup may be the clue which finally determines whether this was assassination attempt or a smuggling effort gone wrong. And here is why.
It is clear we have a single cup which as very strong indications of a Polonium-210. So strong that it did not lose its contamination signature from washing (which usually cleans off low levels of Polonium 210 from most surfaces). What will scientists do next? They will determine how much Polonium 210 would be needed to leave that kind of signature on the tea cup’s porcelain (a substance known to resist penetration by stains, etc). I predict the results will show that the amount of Polonium-210 that would replicate this ‘burned in’ signature will be many times larger than that found in Litvinenko’s system.
We still have the contaminated room to fold into the story line and here is what I think happened. As I mentioned many times I think there was a smuggling effort which was either combining or dividing Polonium ‘shipments’. This is because this is the third hotel linked to Lugovoi trips to London and meetings with Litvinenko which shows contamination in many rooms (not one). I think on this third known round of smuggling, something happened to one container and there was a desparate need for something to hold Polonium-210 in while the container was fixed or a new one brought in. That would be a tea cup (what us yanks would call a coffee cup) that was in the room and at hand. That is why the tea cup had strong marks on it from contamination.
This makes much more sense than the assassination theory and I will explain why. We have two vessels that supposedly where exposed to the same material – a cup and a human. To leave a signature on a porcelain cup that resisted multiple washings would imply a dosage so strong that Litvinenko should have had his insides burned to a strong degree. I cannot see the same amount of material leaving a strong mark on porcelain and not just destroying the soft tissues of the intestines.
Now I could be wrong because I have not run any chemical equations or anything, but it is like saying an acid that could mark porcelain and would not melt a human being’s insides. So if the amount of material to mark the tea cup was larger than that found in Litvinenko we have another indication this was a smuggling ring. I would suspect police had (or will) test the trash containers, etc to see if anything else was used to deal with the contamination leak in the hotel room. It would make sense that towels might have been used and thrown out. The tea cup should have been thrown out. But I do not think these people, who were the transporters, knew what they were dealing with at all. If they were simply transport for Berezovsky and Zakayev, they would have been told as little as possible.
Which also makes sense with what we see. The bungling could have been due to deliberate ignorance. An assassin would know is weapon and how to be careful with it. A smuggler for hire may not know much except the barest minimum. I would expect the determination on what dose of Polonium-210 would be required to leave a trace on a tea cup to have been done by now. And I doubt it will be leaked to the news media.
And make sure to check out the map/timeline with this story at the Telegraph. It clearly shows what I believe are three rounds of smuggling Polonium 210 into London. Each time Lugovoi is overseeing the activities and Litvinenko seems to the Berezovsky’s messenger for status, etc. And it appears multiple people are transporting small amounts of the material which is why more than one room ends up being contaminated at each site.
Update: The FBI is confirming part of my theory by stating those who handled the material (the ‘assassins’ in the minds of the myopic media) did not have the training (or were even told anything) on how to handle the Polonium-210:
The assassins who poisoned Alexander Litvinenko in a London hotel bar may have exposed themselves to a potentially fatal dose of radioactivity, according to an FBI assessment of the killing.
…
Officials from the FBI, which has been asked to offer technical assistance to the British investigation, have concluded that the killers were not professionally trained to handle the substance. This suggests the use of radioactive material made the killing “as much a message as a murder”, according to FBI sources.
Yeah, right. Or the transporters in a smuggling ring where never told what it was they were transporting – precisely. I doubt anyone would send an assassin out with a weapon that could be traced right back to the source and not explain to them how to avoid getting everyone caught. Sounds more like the FBI leading the news media than them giving a straight response. So the master mind never told the assassin what they had in order – which would make sure the trail never led back to the mastermind! You would think someone who could get their hands on 30 million euros of Polonium would be a bit smarter than that.
Update: No traces found on the plane which took Kovtun from Hamburg to London on Oct 31st. My guess is they will be checking other planes and when/if Kovtun came back to Hamburg after going to Moscow on Nov 3 from London.
so there we go, the table cloth had some contamination at the Sushi bar but nothing absolutely nothing happened to that braggard Scaramella!
There was none on the car that transported Litvinenko to downtown London on Nov 1, but some in the car which transported him home that evening.
Clarice, just you can be contaminated internally and not leave a trace if you have taken a shower and wear clean clothes – means nothing about the car
Lizarde–re that “braggard” Scaramella, the Reuters article says he originally tested higher. It’s only later tests that revealed the contamination was not high.
Also from the article:
“Hamburg police said neither Kovtun nor his ex-wife nor her mother were suspects in the investigation.
Kovtun has denied any part in Litvinenko’s poisoning and has offered to give police details of the deal that he was working on with his business partner Andrei Lugovoy and Litvinenko.”
As far as I understand this, and somebody with scientific background please correct me if I am wrong, the clothes of these people were often contaminated and that is probably what left the trail – it is not as though they were leaving radioactive dead skin cells around and that is what detectives are finding traces of. When they showered and wore clean clothes then there was no PO unless they handled it again wearing those clothes. Also bathrooms becaue of bodily fluids were contaminated as in Hamburg and at the stadium and probably at the hotels. What we don’t know is were bathrooms Oct 16 contaminated and also what about Oct. 25.
Lizarde1,
P0lonium-210 is an alpha emitter which has a radiation range of only a few centimeters. It doesn’t translate radiation the same way other elements do. My understanding is the material itself has to be present to leave contamination. Think of a fire burning something.
Then there are indications of radiation being present. This is what could be a trace or a scar – like a burn mark shows where fire has been. Crude and inaccurate examples. but one is a presence and the other is a sign of presence.
more news: Axis
Security experts of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia have checked up on presence of radiation the premises of the television channel Russia Today visited by Andrei Lugovoy – nothing found
well thank God: Israel coming to Britain to help MI5 etc;
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1154
sraelis have their own interest in investigating Litvinenko’s death……..However, even a bigger interest is attached by the Israelis to the origin of the radioactive substance (polonium-210) applied to poison Litvinenko, and to the way this substance was delivered to London. There is a concern in Israel that this incident, which resulted in quite a broad exposure of civilians to radiation, will serve as an example to the Islamic radicals aiming at carrying out terrorist attacks against the Israeli citizens.
OK then AJ, help me – what was left on the seats? at Berzovsky’s office or in the car or on the airline seats for example? scaring or pitting or actual tiny pieces of PO210????. The German article implies that there was no actual PO210 (no source) so there must have been some tiny burning or something in the bed, chair etc. is that correct?
Enlightened, please read this, from the article linked by AJ Strata from the Telegraph:
“Police will have many questions to ask Mr Lugovoi, after signs of radiation turned up at a number of hotels and offices he visited in the days before Mr Litvinenko fell ill, as well as the aeroplanes he travelled on.
So far radiation has been detected at the Parkes Hotel in Knightsbridge, where he stayed with Mr Kovtun from October 16 to October 18, and two offices of security firms which they visited with Mr Litvinenko.
There have also been positive tests on rooms at the eighth floor of the Sheraton Hotel in Park Lane, where Mr Lugovoi stayed from October 25 to October 27.”
DO YOU GET IT NOW??
Can you explain why even though he says he’s okay, the Russians have twice refused to allow the Brits to intervire him?
“So you have the 3 Pine Bar comrades – none hot before 1 November.
These 3 men were not smuggling or handling PO210.
Left by Enlightened on December 9th, 2006”
What do you mean by this? How can you possibly say this?
“This makes much more sense than the assassination theory and I will explain why. We have two vessels that supposedly where exposed to the same material – a cup and a human. To leave a signature on a porcelain cup that resisted multiple washings would imply a dosage so strong that Litvinenko should have had his insides burned to a strong degree. I cannot see the same amount of material leaving a strong mark on porcelain and not just destroying the soft tissues of the intestines.”
I have read up some on this, and it does not appear that the acidic solution in which Po might be dissolved is not necessarily highly concentrated, so an acidic solution could have been used to poison him. That means that if the Po was given to Litvinenko in liquid form, it wouldn’t necessarily burn his insides. And I don’t think the alpha radiation would burn his insides that fast either. After all, one of the concerns with the neutron bomb, which would be giving off the same type of radiation, is that it would leave the victims/enemy of the bomb alive and seething with anger until they would die a few weeks later.
The trace they’ve found can’t be acid burns on a cup – that would not be conclusive. And the alpha radiation must have been washed off in these 3 weeks minimum that the cup has been used and washed at the hotel (I think? ). For me it seems more likely that they have detected low levels of gamma radiation (Po also emits this, at _very_ low levels) on that cup.
AJ,
A few comments:
I would imagine the UK authorities would be able to work the “profile” angle as well as the forensics. It seems to me they should be able to determine to some degree of certainty whether or not the people involved would look like “assassins” or merely “smugglers.”
I am amazed at how few people seem to be taking the smuggling angle seriously, and how quick they are to dismiss it, even though it seems to be the better fit. Chalk it up to cognative dissonance, is my guess. Russian assassinations are interesting and safe. Smuggling nuclear materials is downright terrifying.
The good news is, whatever was going on, it would seem to be pretty much blown, or severely compromised.
The US is not off the hook in this: Smugglers could very well want to “wash” their travels by going first through the UK rather than moving from Moscow directly to a US port of call.
Clarice
I doubt the Litvinenko would tell the authorities he had gone up to that room. That is the last thing he would tell them. I wonder if he told them what he did between 12 and 3. The cameras tracked him for some time. The authorities probably knew where he went but are keeping mum on it.
If this story about the teacup is true what about the numerous people who drank out of this cup during the last 5 to 6 weeks since the incident. That means there will be multiple cases of radiation poisoning. What surprises me is that it is just now found. Just like the Germans just now found their radiation residue. Something is wrong here. Law enforcement is not that inept. I think the media, as usual, is hysterical and running around in circles.
And BTW I do not see why the FBI statement that those handling the PO may not have known what they were hdanling is any more supportive of a smuggling than an assassination theory.
***Handling**
As to not going up to the room, Litvinenko was presumably trying to help the police find out what happened. I cannot imagine why he’d deny being in the room had he been there. Remember he knew he was dying.
Also, I expect that those in the bar were also questioned and confirmed they saw him walk in to the bar, meet Lugovoi who was reportedly already present.. And leave without his friends or they without him.
Clarice, if an assassin was asked to kill another person with this “unknown substance”, that assassin would have to be very stupid indeed to not see warning flags. Unless, of course, the person telling him this was his best friend or wife (possibly).
An assassin who is told “this is thallium” – which does not have to be handled with the same care as Po – and it is in fact polonium, that means that the mastermind would indeed be seeking to display a message. For he would know that it is very likely that polonium will get out and cause damage. Unless a person responsible for that suffered from a wish to kill just about anyone, he would probably be an individual who knows the general outline of the assassination plan, or at least that it will take place in London.
Here’s something I just noticed, don’t know if it’s been discussed, seems that either Kovtun and Lugovoi could have been in the contaminated room 411 at the Millennium:
“The most significant finds of polonium have been at the Pine Bar of the Millennium Hotel and at rooms on the fourth floor, where Mr Lugovoi and Mr Kovtun stayed from October 31 to November 3, meeting Mr Litvinenko in the bar on November 1, the day he was poisoned.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/09/npoison09.xml
Let’s suppose it was an assassin and his boss wanted him to die, too, to make the track back impossible. Why not mislead him about what it was and how it was to be handled? And if the boss believed that it could not be picked up and traced , what does he care about exposing others?