Dec 09 2006
Tea Cup Mystery – Final Clue
Many people are making a lot out of a tea cup at the Millenium Hotel in order to conclude that an assassination attempt must have happened at the Millenium Hotel Bar (despite all the other contaminated sites and people which precede the meeting of Litvinenko with Lugovoi and Kovtun):
POISONED former KGB spy Alexander Litvinenko WAS murdered by radioactive tea, it was revealed yesterday.
Scotland Yard detectives have quarantined cups and saucers which show signs of being heavily contaminated with polonium 210 from the Pines Bar at the Millennium Hotel in Mayfair, Central London.
They are convinced that is where Litvinenko was slipped the fatal dose in a cup of tea during a meeting with former KGB colleague Andrei Lugovoi and his business partner Dmitri Kovtun.
Seven bar staff who served them have been sent home showing signs of radiation poisoning. Colleagues say four are already suffering from a “flu like” illness.
A senior Counterterrorism source said: “It’s now a near certainty Mr Litvinenko was poisoned by having polonium 210 slipped into his drink at the hotel, probably while distracted by a phone call or other interruption. The contaminated staff are those who cleared up the crockery and took it to the kitchens.
“We’ve found a cup almost certainly the one poisoned as it has such a high radiation read out.
First back to chemistry 101. Litvinenko had a large amount of Polonium-210 in his system. Polonium can only be disolved or suspended in an acid solution. When free disolved its radiation effect will effect the solution it is in. I doubt the amount of material we are discussing would not show some physical conditions in a cup of tea, if not something alteration to the taste. The tea cup and its contamination exist. So is this the only possibility that fits the facts? Of course not. It is just another in a long list of events where the news media jumped to conclusions to fit their assumed results. And each time they have had to recreate a new scenario with every new fact that has come out. I am not of the opinion whatever the media says will be valid for less than 5 days in this story.
So let’s work on the smuggling ring assumption and see how this plays out. The tea cup, first off, doesn’t have to have come from the bar but could have come from a room. And we have a room of interest on the 4th floor (supposedly 441) where there is a serious contamination and where speculation has it the poison was mixed. The tea cup may be the clue which finally determines whether this was assassination attempt or a smuggling effort gone wrong. And here is why.
It is clear we have a single cup which as very strong indications of a Polonium-210. So strong that it did not lose its contamination signature from washing (which usually cleans off low levels of Polonium 210 from most surfaces). What will scientists do next? They will determine how much Polonium 210 would be needed to leave that kind of signature on the tea cup’s porcelain (a substance known to resist penetration by stains, etc). I predict the results will show that the amount of Polonium-210 that would replicate this ‘burned in’ signature will be many times larger than that found in Litvinenko’s system.
We still have the contaminated room to fold into the story line and here is what I think happened. As I mentioned many times I think there was a smuggling effort which was either combining or dividing Polonium ‘shipments’. This is because this is the third hotel linked to Lugovoi trips to London and meetings with Litvinenko which shows contamination in many rooms (not one). I think on this third known round of smuggling, something happened to one container and there was a desparate need for something to hold Polonium-210 in while the container was fixed or a new one brought in. That would be a tea cup (what us yanks would call a coffee cup) that was in the room and at hand. That is why the tea cup had strong marks on it from contamination.
This makes much more sense than the assassination theory and I will explain why. We have two vessels that supposedly where exposed to the same material – a cup and a human. To leave a signature on a porcelain cup that resisted multiple washings would imply a dosage so strong that Litvinenko should have had his insides burned to a strong degree. I cannot see the same amount of material leaving a strong mark on porcelain and not just destroying the soft tissues of the intestines.
Now I could be wrong because I have not run any chemical equations or anything, but it is like saying an acid that could mark porcelain and would not melt a human being’s insides. So if the amount of material to mark the tea cup was larger than that found in Litvinenko we have another indication this was a smuggling ring. I would suspect police had (or will) test the trash containers, etc to see if anything else was used to deal with the contamination leak in the hotel room. It would make sense that towels might have been used and thrown out. The tea cup should have been thrown out. But I do not think these people, who were the transporters, knew what they were dealing with at all. If they were simply transport for Berezovsky and Zakayev, they would have been told as little as possible.
Which also makes sense with what we see. The bungling could have been due to deliberate ignorance. An assassin would know is weapon and how to be careful with it. A smuggler for hire may not know much except the barest minimum. I would expect the determination on what dose of Polonium-210 would be required to leave a trace on a tea cup to have been done by now. And I doubt it will be leaked to the news media.
And make sure to check out the map/timeline with this story at the Telegraph. It clearly shows what I believe are three rounds of smuggling Polonium 210 into London. Each time Lugovoi is overseeing the activities and Litvinenko seems to the Berezovsky’s messenger for status, etc. And it appears multiple people are transporting small amounts of the material which is why more than one room ends up being contaminated at each site.
Update: The FBI is confirming part of my theory by stating those who handled the material (the ‘assassins’ in the minds of the myopic media) did not have the training (or were even told anything) on how to handle the Polonium-210:
The assassins who poisoned Alexander Litvinenko in a London hotel bar may have exposed themselves to a potentially fatal dose of radioactivity, according to an FBI assessment of the killing.
…
Officials from the FBI, which has been asked to offer technical assistance to the British investigation, have concluded that the killers were not professionally trained to handle the substance. This suggests the use of radioactive material made the killing “as much a message as a murder”, according to FBI sources.
Yeah, right. Or the transporters in a smuggling ring where never told what it was they were transporting – precisely. I doubt anyone would send an assassin out with a weapon that could be traced right back to the source and not explain to them how to avoid getting everyone caught. Sounds more like the FBI leading the news media than them giving a straight response. So the master mind never told the assassin what they had in order – which would make sure the trail never led back to the mastermind! You would think someone who could get their hands on 30 million euros of Polonium would be a bit smarter than that.
Update: No traces found on the plane which took Kovtun from Hamburg to London on Oct 31st. My guess is they will be checking other planes and when/if Kovtun came back to Hamburg after going to Moscow on Nov 3 from London.
correction: “I am trying those” = “I am trying to get those”
We really don’t have enough information to decide.
If, for example, the PO couriers were not the assassins, the assassin could be clever and experienced and the couriers the buffoons.
Early on, per the Times, the police were operating on a theory that the assassin was already in London and received the PO from others who brought it in.
My temporary scenario is that there were smugglers bringing it in. Others–perhaps Lugovy and friends who were trying to track them or figure out what was going on–probably with no firm knowledge it was PO,,and an assassin who the smugglers brought the PO to.
Clarice,
“for example, the PO couriers were not the assassins, the assassin could be clever and experienced and the couriers the buffoons.”
Entirely possible. One way to get out of the three chacters I listed, is to increase the number of people involved in order to split up the characteristics.
The only people who really knew what was going on were “inside the box.”
In other words, if someone in the kitchen was spitting into your soup. The waiter serving it “could” know, even if it wasn’t his spit. He just knows all the jackass staffs working elsewhere in “the hotel.”
As to “cups in rooms,” don’t hotels have room service? If you were served in your room, you’d be served on china. And, you don’t have to put your cup back on the cart. If you’ve taken it with you, to sip from; while you’re looking out the window.
This was just a “cash and carry in” business. And, remember. The stuff doesn’t smell. It is odorless. And, you’re shown at some point that it doesn’t “set off Geiger Counters.”
Count me in that an accident happened. That’s not for an “assassination.” That’s for “spreading the wealth around.” Just in case the “good guys” come around to discover a plot where the “bad guys” are building a bomb. It’s very possible the yokels hired as mules, thought you only “get to the explosion” when one thing is mixed (elsewhere) with something else. Maybe, they were told this was being accummulated to make “triggers?”
Plans UP IN THE AIR, now.
Unless? Unless the terrorists WANTED information to get out; that you could be exposed. And, your “first sign of sickness” was to lose all your hair when you combed it. In the morning.
And, I’ll bet the “first clue” that it was Polonium came from Litvenenko. Sick enough to be in the hosptial. Sick enough (according to day’s Drudge Report, where the wife talks about how her husband had hoped to live.) He was looking for BONE MARROW TRANSPLANTS.
He wouldn’t exactly “tell” the doctors. Until the doctors told him they were baffled. And, the “bone marrow transplant” wasn’t going to take, because of this “mystery.” (By this point? Litvenenko may have been meeting men, garbed as doctors, who were working for Scotland Yard. And, who knew more about physics. Than, say, medicine.
While they give Litvenenko painful tests; he finally “helps” out with the suggestion of “do you think it could be?” With. Or. WIthout. Asking the patient “why he thinks so?”
Do most “assassinated” people KNOW everything about the murder implement. When it’s something like Polonium? Which even threw other doctors (in Moscow) into NOT KNOWING the cause of death for a few victims, who “went” before Litvenenko did.
Thanks AJ. And, others. Your coverage is EXCELLENT! And, Cross Patch really knows his science!
I find it interesting, that if the spill were big enough, that towels would have been used. So, I’m guessing the experts think it was liquid? And, not flakes? Or powder?
Now, IF the towels went missing from the hotel room. Or rooms. The maid has to account for that! Yes. People always back towels. And, towels always go missing. BUT INVENTORY CONTROLS? That flew out the window? I;d bet there are better controls on the stuff the maids use. And, dispense. Than anything else.
Restaurants, too. The kitchen, these days with computers, does amazing backup on “portions.” I know. Because I asked at a restaurant if I could have only half of the dessert. The cake. Not the trimmings. And, I was told I’d have to pay for the whole thing. Because the kitchen can’t make smaller portions appear on their computers. Even the manager said so. (I didn’t order the dessert.)
But I did figure that it’s not as haphazard to be served in restaurants, as it would be if you were doing this at home.
And, I also agree. The FBI let’s the media run cold. Taking what they’re told and building whatever they want. As long as it is not even close to the truth. That’s the way the “assassin story” has been built.
Russians, however, with leanings away from Putin. Manage to get all involved with Chechnyan muslims? What a wrinkle! Who knew!
And the only way this could have broken wide open is if “someone, somewhere, somehow, made sure the containers were not leak proof. Or? Like Chenobyl. Russians aren’t known for quality control.
The wheel came off the bus because it wasn’t attached properly.
While a lot of organizations are moving heaven and earth, to make sure the McGuffin is putin. While putin will try to blame his billionaires, who roam free. All told? How many were in, the “in” group? TEN? Cells are usually kept small. Ten would be five too many. And, here? We have “too many.” And, we’ve got nothing in terms of what this dreck was FOR. Or how it was intended to be used.
Litvenenko went to his grave without talking. And, the PR machine “Goldfarb” is there to spread McGuffins. And, to protect his own boss.
While ya think? If these clowns are suspicious? And, all of them face the threats of cancer, ahead, whom do you think they trust now? Heck, they couldn’t even get jobs, now, in vaudeville.
Sorry Weight of Glory, I’ll go reread your posts. I just saw two that addressed only assassination scenarios.
I woke up on the wrong side of bed. Xmas cards and shopping are not helping.
Early in this discussion I cited an article earlier this year to the effect that the Brits were expecting the detonation of a dirty bomb in their country.
They still are:
“POLICE forces have been told to buy anti-radiation masks for their 100,000 frontline officers to protect them in the event of a “dirty bomb†terrorist attack. The Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) has told all forces they should look to purchase specially designed chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) hoods as soon as possible. Senior officers are concerned that, with only 1,000 thought to have been distributed, their ability to deal with any radiation threat will be severely hampered. The transparent “escape hoods†are able to protect the wearer from harm for about 20 minutes, allowing him or her to… ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,176-2496487,00.html
The threat level for a dirty bomb is still listed as “severe”.
Just perhaps, the folks bringing the PO into the country were bringing it in for use in the UK.
Gotta Know,
“I woke up on the wrong side of bed. Xmas cards and shopping are not helping.”
Boy do I know that feeling! No problem by the way; understand completely.
It sounds to me like Lugovoi was the “mule,” with an assist from Kovtun. Perhaps Litvinenko was inspecting the final product, the accumulated collection of three or more runs, when he contaminated himself / themselves.
I have heard that there is a Chechnen connection through Litvinenko (plus he did supposedly convert to islam before his death), but AJ speculates that this billionaire Berezovsky could be involved. This is very interesting: Does the billionaire have connections to the jihadi Chechnens? Or was he paying for the stuff for his own purposes? And if so, what could those purposes be? Given his hatred for Putin the meme that this is somehow tied to Moscow would favor keeping the P-210 back in Russia. Or he could have been attempting to foster a war between the West and some other country, fingering Russia, which could lead to Russia being dragged into the conflict.
What is most confusing to me is Scaramella. He could not get a 5x lethal dose from sitting next to Litvinenko even if Litvinenko sneezed directly into his water.
I also suspect that Scaramella is currently not allowed to leave the UK.
AJ, you are an engineer. How are you on basic RC circuits and time constants? The biological elimination of this material looks very much like a discharge curve of an RC circuit. In this case the time constant is, I believe, 36 days. In other words, after 36 days the body “discharges” half the material. After another 36 days the body discharges half of the remaining material, etc. They arrived at the lethal dosage that Litvinenko had by looking at the alpha radiation from his urine and deriving a current contamination level from that. Kind of like measuring the voltage in a discharging RC circuit. If they know the level of contamination now and then know when the contamination happened, they can figure out what the starting level was just as you can do in a circuit by looking at the voltage and knowing what the time constant is and how long it has been discharging.
Enter Scaramella. He provides urine samples. If they assume he was contaminated on Nov. 1, then they can extrapolate what his initial dosage was. If his dosage was ingested much later, then their extrapolation would be very wrong. Other factors could contribute to an incorrect calculation too such as the fact that different people eliminate things at different rates. His kidneys might work more or less efficiently than “average”.
Scaramella is the piece in all of this that really interests me. If the poisoning happened at the Pines Bar then how did Scaramella get contaminated with the level they claim? He is the piece that makes no sense .
On the assassination theory, given all we know about P-210, this is NOT the stuff for assassination. You’d have to be crazy. First of all, it seems very difficult to transfer it without killing yourself. Second, it spreads like crazy, leaving a trail across the globe. Third, it limits the source of the poison to just a handful in the entire world.
No one planning a hit would consider this substance, it’s crazy. There are far more effective ways to do the job.
CP Scaramella is NOT contaminated – REuters had it buried in an article – look up thread
LONDON: Two London police officers have tested positive for low traces of the polonium radiation that apparently killed former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko, but both are well, the police said Sunday.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/update_detail.asp?id=14299
Crosspatch apparently Scaramella is the source of the level of dosage that he received (5 times the lethal amount). He could have been wrong. (In fact the whole scale is suspect, if he really had received 5 times the lethal amount he should have been deader than a doornail by now.) Or he could have been a fruitcake with a few cards short of a full deck:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/09/world/europe/09poison.html?_r=1&ei=5094&en=245c87d03f814daa&hp=&ex=1165640400&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
He is at best an odd figure that gives further evidence that the whole story is replete with shady characters.
AGAIN SCARAMELLA is not contaminated – his levels are below what a person would have with normal environmental exposure – look up thread for link
What I mean is, Scaramella himself claimed to have received a 5 x lethal dose, at one point.
here’s the quote CP from reuters: But the Health Protection Agency said further tests showed his levels were less than those from one year’s natural exposure to background radiation in the atmosphere.
I need your scientific expertise to interpret this!
Gotta Know – yes the guy is a fruitcake and an oportunist
I have already cited the article which said DOCTORS originally believed that Scaramella WHO IS NOW IN ITALY had a much higher dose of PO contamination. Later, they revised the level down after further tests.
I know these threads are long, but I’m tired of people posting without reading and posting the same already discredited stuff.
end of poisoned cigarette theory: He was very fit for his age. He didn’t smoke, he didn’t drink.†Wife Marina interview
Another great Sunday Times multiple-page article this weekend:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2496685_1,00.html
Focus: Buried in lead in Londongrad
This talks about Scaramella, too. I think the Brits weren’t quite sure if he was telling them the complete truth, so they bundled him off to a hospital and told him he was glowing hot when he wasn’t, just to see if his story changed if he was scared and thought he was shuffling off the mortal coil. But then — I’m a cynical old nut!