Dec 12 2006
Litvinenko Dosage Was Massive
There is an article out today which helps put the dosage of Polonium 210 into perpsective, and a history lesson which would dictate the Litvinenko incident was not an assassination. It is the only recorded death by Polonium 210, and clearly demontrates Polonium is not a weapon of assassination:
A low-dose exposure was blamed for causing the death of Irene Joliot-Curie, the daughter of Marie Curie, who first isolated polonium.
Irene died in 1956 of leukemia caused by accidental exposure when a sealed capsule of the metal exploded on her laboratory bench. Polonium’s alpha rays damage DNA, although in Irene’s case they took more than 10 years to do their deadly work.
Litvinenko passed away much more quickly. On Nov. 23, the 43-year-old died in a London hospital from the intense radiation polonium emits, having ingested it sometime in late October. Even though the dose of poison was tiny — maybe no more than the weight of a speck of dust — it was deadly.
…
The maximum safe body burden of polonium is only 7 picograms (7 trillionth of a gram). It appears that Litvinenko was given something like a milligram (a thousandth of a gram), which is a billion times the safe level. Polonium-210 is regarded as one of the most dangerous substances known because it ejects alpha particles.
The history shows ten years before the first accidental exposure to what must have been a large amount of Polonium dust took its victim. True, the Curie’s were scientists and they took precautions. But an assassin would have to consider this example a poor result. The assassin theory has mutiple conflicting assumptions. First the assassin is sophisticated so he/she selects this exotic weapon. Then it turns out they know little about the weapon and the trail it leaves:
Whoever the assassin was, he or she had some method of concealing the poison before it was given to Litvinenko. The hidden poison would be undetectable because this isotope emits almost no telltale gamma rays. However, polonium has a tendency to leak from containers. This probably explains why traces have been found in five airliners, particularly those used for flights to Moscow. (Passengers in those aircraft were not at risk.)
Where Litvinenko was poisoned is still not known. But wherever he went after he was poisoned, he left traces of polonium, including his home in the north London suburb of Muswell Hill, a sushi restaurant near Piccadilly Circus where he dined with a friend, a luxury hotel where he met two unidentified Russians, and the home of Russian billionaire exile Boris Berezovsky. His room in the hospital was the most contaminated.
So was this a smart assassin? Apparently not. But why hire a low brow (and low budget) assassin to deliver a poison which costs tens of millions of dollars? That makes no sense either. Polonium 210 is useful as a weapon. Very useful. But that use has nothing to do with poison pills in tea. That is not an effective use of Polonium 210. Its role in a nuclear device or dirty bomb is much more deadly and cost effective. Now, you don’t need to tell a smuggler exactly what they are smuggling when you want to transport contraband. And smugglers might not think or even know about the trail Polonium 210 can leave. If I was in on the smuggling and then took ill, I would spend some serious time negotiating an air tight role as a whistle blower to get as light a sentence as possible in any prosecutions. The radiation poisoning would be punishment enough in many people’s minds.
On a slightly separate topic I would expect people involved in a smuggling ring that went bust like the Litvinenko incident might have to start running for cover. And that is apparently what we see.
Paris. A key witness in Litvinenko case,
Andrey[Evgeny; ajstrata] Limarev, has disappeared from his home in the French Alps, the Echo of Moscow Radio reported citing a statement of News Ru. Limarev is a former Federal Security Service agent and a colleague of Alexander Litvinenko, who was poisoned recently in London. Some time ago, Limarev accused a former agent of the Federal Security Service, of Litvinenko’s death. Limarev told the British press that he would be the next victim. A day later, he went missing.
l which will be twisted by those trying to divert attention from themselves as some sort of act by Putin. Clearly someone is trying to hide something and some form of cleaning up is taking place.
Major Update: I can confidentally predict Lugovoi has signed a plea agreement in this matter:
Russian businessman Andrei Lugovoy, a presumed key witness in the case on the death in London of former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko, has flatly dismissed media reports alleging that Russian and British investigators repeatedly interrogated him on Tuesday.
“There have not been any investigatory actions today. I have only signed a protocol on not divulging preliminary investigation secrecy, and the signing of a protocol is not, as it is known, an investigatory action,†he told ITAR-TASS.
Berezovsky and Goldfarb and Zakayev must be getting pretty concerned about now. They do seem awefully eager to please all of a sudden. It is not good to pollute the home of someone who has given you shelter.
BTW, here is an interview of Lugovoi in Der Spiegel from a while back which is interesting. I have meetings today but will try to drop in and blog when I can. Update: This is fascinating reading and I hope I can join the debate later today, but one thing that should be noted about Polonium 210 poisoning is it can happen over time. If a person repeatedly visits a location where Polonium 210 is being handled one can build up the toxin to the point it becomes deadly. I only note that because Lugovoi and Kovtun stated Litvinenko was claiming to be poisoned as early as Oct 16th. I would wager this smuggling effort, if it is one, went on for months and involved many more carriers than we are seeing reported now.
calling your attention to the phrase “sometime in late October” – I guess that suggests this writer at least thinks that it did NOT take place at the Millenium Bar on November 1. On this note a German paper yesterday said that the washing machine and clean and dirty clothes at the ex-wife’s showed polonium traces. This is reminiscent of the dishwasher and the cups at the Millenium.
As usual I find these arguments against assassination absurd… the cost argument is bogus if a government is involved, the high dose ingested by Sasha actually suggests this was a deliberate poisoning rather than accidental/involved with smuggling, the polonium on Kovtun’s clothes isn’t reported to be great just as the contamination in room 411 wasn’t reported as severe – in contrast to the reporting regarding the single cup and saucer, Limarev was the guy who supposedly told Scaramella that Sasha (and he) were targeted for assassination – there’s been no indication that he’s a fellow smuggler and quite a bit of reason to think he might go into hiding considering the information he shared with Sasha, and there’s still no money trail – as would be required for smugglers trafficking in Po210, for a purpose that still won’t fit any motive I can imagine.
I still think the polonium was introduced through the money.
That there were EURO’s, put into circulation, made with ink that contained the polonium. Which is WHY so many people were carrying it around. And, handing some of it out.
I also think Litvenenko could have rolled up one of the bills, and snorted cocaine. Giving himself a massive dose.
For a time, the money was only in the hands of the bad guys.
Then, the half-life kicked in. And, the polonium stopped kicking out radicals. And, became lead.
That’s why you see the “traces” or “hot spots” traveling into families. And, out to bartenders. Where a Euro, or two, could have been dropped into the tip jar.
And, yes. I think the tea cup was a McGuffin.
I’m also reminded, when Saddam was “seen in a neighborhood,” and the military signal went out to “drop a bomb.” The sightings were done by “street cleaners.”
In other words, most people don’t notice “staff.” So it’s not uncommon for spooks to dress up like janitors. Or, in europe, men with brooms. Who clean the streets. Who gets more ignored than that?
Well, this is a very SOPHISTICATED operation. High level spooking. AND, smuggling rings with “high end” product. So you’re dealing with gangland’s top guys.
What would they fear the most about eposure?
And, what would they take for granted and flaunt? Well, pretty dames. And, money.
Also? What if this were a test, too? To see if when the Olympics comes to London, that a large scale terror campaign could take place. Started? At the ATM machines. And, then? Practically untrace-able.
But what were the smuggled products? Even if nuclear, more likely to be TRIGGERS, than polonium.
Side benefit to this operation? The imam not wanted Litvenenko’s body to be placed in the center of the mosque. It had to be kept outside. So all those monkeys who want nukes, seem to have inordinate fears about radiation exposure. Be good if they don’t want to “hold” the suitcase nukes, inside their mosques; as they do the usual ordnance.
Jerry,
You are missing the point with the value of Polonium. For $30 million one could by the bullets, hire a local thug and stahs 95% of the money gained from selling Polonium 210 on the black market. No mess.
Lugovoy thinks he can beat the polonium contamination otherwise why would he keep up the PR campaign – he won’t release his test results; he keeps issuing statements to the media – he constantly says he is cooperating. Maybe he is doing a plea deal and hopes to get out of this with his expensive life style still intact. That little scene at the dacha was revealing- Kovtun with no hair and a lie that noone could believe, door knobs taped – And all that time he was hanging out with a totally contaminated friend – something really doesn’t add up here.
Jerry- but why did Kovtun have no hair when interviewed by Der Spiegel and claim it was a sunbed accident? A possible motive for smuggling was given by Berezovsky when he mentioned the Chechen ‘atomic device’ that was missing a crucial element. And did Litvinenko convert to Islam? Polonium can be transported without leavng traces with the most simple of methods – you could even put it in a freezer bag and knot it well without too much risk. In any case, if you can afford this sort of material, you can also afford decent assassins rather than bunglers. Suspicions are being raised here in Germany that the trail was meant to be found…
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/0,1518,453823,00.html
A PROTOCOL is not a plea agreement. Under Soviet law which Russia seems to have continued, any formal interrogation of a witness is reduced to a summary which is signed. This is called a protocol. It is NOT a plea agreement.
Such things are common in continental law and countries like Israel which adopted many of those features also follow it. It is not an exact transcript so for American law it is problemmatic but that’s another matter.
it will read something like:
On December 9, 2006 before the prosecutor_________and in the presence of _________of Great Britain the witness, Lugovoi stated__________
But Po210 would be free for a government which made it to use for an assassination (think of it as a proof of principle test), the free market cost of Po wouldn’t be an issue for a government but would be a significant hurdle for a band of smugglers – so lacking a money trail I say a government is involved.
About the Spiegel article about Kovtun and Lugovoi, assuming it is accurate, I’m not saying they weren’t contaminated – just questioning how much they and their house are actually contaminated. There’s a tendency for people involved in this case to say they were poisoned, this makes them a victim rather than suspect – this is what Scaramella did apparently (the 5x dose story is bogus). Unfortunately, I expect we’ll never get good reporting for Russia about any of these things.
I think we’re in false choice territory again. L/K could have been in some smuggling plot, knowingly or not, and would have left Po trails across europe. L/K could also have been deliberately contaminated to lay a false trail. In both cases Sasha can still have been assassinated (maybe L/K did this, maybe someone else did) the evidence of the hot cup and saucer and very high amount of Po used supports this; in contrast, I’m not convinced any of the other hot spots are more than just residual traces that are not a health hazard.
How can Scarramella have become free of Polonium – the hospital had found what they called a significant amount?
Lugovoi and Kovtun evidently had no idea they were contaminated and probably only learned that they might be through the newspapers. They left for Russia two days after Litvinenko was hospitalized with no indication that the knew. They did not get rid of the clothes that were contaminated. If I knew I had been contaminated with polonium I would get rid of everything I owned that could have come in contact with Litvinenko and bought new stuff. These people could have afforded it. I would probably have gotten rid of anything else that could have come in contact with my clothes also. I certainly wouldn’t trail polonium around behind me marking my passage and incriminating myself. They might just as well have hired a loud speaker to run up & down the streets announcing that they were involved. These two might have been bumbling smugglers but they were not dumb usually. They might not have known what they were carrying which is possible. Who in their right minds would open a container of polonium? Maybe they wanted to find out what they were carrying? Who knows? I don’t expect them to tell us ever.
I do not understand the assassination theorists pulling all these convoluted theories out of the air. Why not a simple accident? Accidents happen much more often than murders. That’s just like saying Scaramella’s visit was planned to poison Litvinenko. Why would he? There has been no proof that Litvinenko was on the outs with any of these people. Lugovoi & Kovtun are backtracking now and trashing Litvinenko. But that could be looked upon as covering their butts.
The German interview with Lugovoi and Kovtun was so full of holes as to be ridiculous. Kovtun shaving his head because of sunburn? They both acted like spies slinking around in a very bad novel. No rhyme or reason for any of their actions. All they did was trash Litvinenko and tell how innocent they were all the while standing there so contaminated they had to be hospitalized in a few days.
AJ, I agree with you, but for a different reason.
Assassination in a foreign country is a VERY touchy matter. Governments tend to get twitchy when their countries are used as a battlefield – and reserve to themselves the authority to kill people on their soil. It’s a matter of sovereignty.
Which means that if you decide to kill somebody in a foreign country, it pays to be very discreet. The assassin needs to set up the kill so it looks like a natural death or common crime. In particular, you need to kill ONLY the target.
The traditional Mossad technique – which I think they picked up from the 1950s-vintage CIA – was to buttonhole the target at his front door, draw a suppressed .22 pistol, and empty it into the target.
The KGB has historically favored more technical ways to kill – cyanide-spraying umbrellas and injecting ricin come immediately to mind. Which is why I initially thought that Po-210 might be used.
But it breaches the “harm no bystanders” rule.
Therefore, I concur that this was some sort of smuggling operation. The only question is why they were smuggling Polonium at all…..and all the answers I come up with point to terrorist activity, with the half-life of Polonium dictating a very short timeline.
I’m still with Jerry, BTW.
And I still think Enlightened’s where’s the money trail is spot on.
Right, so Russia assassinates him giving his ravings more credability and leave all these trails pointed back to Moscow. I don’t think so. It is bumbling on too many levels.
CP scientifically speaking, what do you make of the fact that traces showed up in the washing machine in the ex wife’s house.
She washed clothes.
Taaking Lugovi at his word–““There have not been any investigatory actions today. I have only signed a protocol on not divulging preliminary investigation secrecy”–this Protocol would read something like this
City
Date
Protocol, I, Citizen Lugovoi , in the presence of _______________________agree that in the investigation of
____________I will not divulge any matter relating to the State’s inquiry to anyone other than the Procurator and those witnesses to the inquiry which the Procurator has chosen to permit.
Signed___________
Witnessed By_____________________
“Governments tend to get twitchy when their countries are used as a battlefield – and reserve to themselves the authority to kill people on their soil. It’s a matter of sovereignty.
Which means that if you decide to kill somebody in a foreign country, it pays to be very discreet. The assassin needs to set up the kill so it looks like a natural death or common crime. In particular, you need to kill ONLY the target.”
Exactly. Killing a citizen of another country and endangering the health of innocent citizens by contamination with such a poison is not something a government would do because it could be construed as an act of war. Criminals, on the other hand, would not worry about that.
A government assassin wouldn’t go to so much trouble to leave a polonium trail and then dose someone with enough polonium to ensure it was discovered and therefore the trails discovered.
That is insanity.
Litvinenko blamed Putin for the apartment bombing, 9/11, al Qaida and probably global warming and leaving the seat up.
If anything this is a Russian mob hit against Boris and his boys or it is a coverup of a smuggling operation gone bad. But we have long time contamination so yes, I agree with AJ in that Litvinenkos dose could have been accumulated over time. And I believe it probably was.
Axis has this report from yesterday about another Russian who met with litvinenko Oct 30 at a cafe in Oxford Circus – wonder if they checked this place: http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1161
Well you know a lot of people think Putin’s people killed this guy on purpose the way they did just so it would not be missed. It was not meant to be subtle or sensible…but outrageous.
In other words, it is a message. We don’t care where you go, who you think you know or who finds out about it, mess with us and we will get you.
Daily Mail says Interpol now involved. And it says Lugovoi was interviewed yesterday for three hours.It also quotes him as saying Kovtun is “normal”.
“British investigators on Monday questioned Andrei Lugovoi, a key witness in the killing, in the Moscow hospital where he was undergoing radiation checks, Russian news reports said. Lugovoi told the agencies that he had been questioned for three hours.
“I gave testimony exclusively as a witness. I was officially informed of that before the interrogation,” the ITAR-Tass news agency quoted him as saying. “They made no charges against me.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=422021&in_page_id=1811