Dec 12 2006
Litvinenko Dosage Was Massive
There is an article out today which helps put the dosage of Polonium 210 into perpsective, and a history lesson which would dictate the Litvinenko incident was not an assassination. It is the only recorded death by Polonium 210, and clearly demontrates Polonium is not a weapon of assassination:
A low-dose exposure was blamed for causing the death of Irene Joliot-Curie, the daughter of Marie Curie, who first isolated polonium.
Irene died in 1956 of leukemia caused by accidental exposure when a sealed capsule of the metal exploded on her laboratory bench. Polonium’s alpha rays damage DNA, although in Irene’s case they took more than 10 years to do their deadly work.
Litvinenko passed away much more quickly. On Nov. 23, the 43-year-old died in a London hospital from the intense radiation polonium emits, having ingested it sometime in late October. Even though the dose of poison was tiny — maybe no more than the weight of a speck of dust — it was deadly.
…
The maximum safe body burden of polonium is only 7 picograms (7 trillionth of a gram). It appears that Litvinenko was given something like a milligram (a thousandth of a gram), which is a billion times the safe level. Polonium-210 is regarded as one of the most dangerous substances known because it ejects alpha particles.
The history shows ten years before the first accidental exposure to what must have been a large amount of Polonium dust took its victim. True, the Curie’s were scientists and they took precautions. But an assassin would have to consider this example a poor result. The assassin theory has mutiple conflicting assumptions. First the assassin is sophisticated so he/she selects this exotic weapon. Then it turns out they know little about the weapon and the trail it leaves:
Whoever the assassin was, he or she had some method of concealing the poison before it was given to Litvinenko. The hidden poison would be undetectable because this isotope emits almost no telltale gamma rays. However, polonium has a tendency to leak from containers. This probably explains why traces have been found in five airliners, particularly those used for flights to Moscow. (Passengers in those aircraft were not at risk.)
Where Litvinenko was poisoned is still not known. But wherever he went after he was poisoned, he left traces of polonium, including his home in the north London suburb of Muswell Hill, a sushi restaurant near Piccadilly Circus where he dined with a friend, a luxury hotel where he met two unidentified Russians, and the home of Russian billionaire exile Boris Berezovsky. His room in the hospital was the most contaminated.
So was this a smart assassin? Apparently not. But why hire a low brow (and low budget) assassin to deliver a poison which costs tens of millions of dollars? That makes no sense either. Polonium 210 is useful as a weapon. Very useful. But that use has nothing to do with poison pills in tea. That is not an effective use of Polonium 210. Its role in a nuclear device or dirty bomb is much more deadly and cost effective. Now, you don’t need to tell a smuggler exactly what they are smuggling when you want to transport contraband. And smugglers might not think or even know about the trail Polonium 210 can leave. If I was in on the smuggling and then took ill, I would spend some serious time negotiating an air tight role as a whistle blower to get as light a sentence as possible in any prosecutions. The radiation poisoning would be punishment enough in many people’s minds.
On a slightly separate topic I would expect people involved in a smuggling ring that went bust like the Litvinenko incident might have to start running for cover. And that is apparently what we see.
Paris. A key witness in Litvinenko case,
Andrey[Evgeny; ajstrata] Limarev, has disappeared from his home in the French Alps, the Echo of Moscow Radio reported citing a statement of News Ru. Limarev is a former Federal Security Service agent and a colleague of Alexander Litvinenko, who was poisoned recently in London. Some time ago, Limarev accused a former agent of the Federal Security Service, of Litvinenko’s death. Limarev told the British press that he would be the next victim. A day later, he went missing.
l which will be twisted by those trying to divert attention from themselves as some sort of act by Putin. Clearly someone is trying to hide something and some form of cleaning up is taking place.
Major Update: I can confidentally predict Lugovoi has signed a plea agreement in this matter:
Russian businessman Andrei Lugovoy, a presumed key witness in the case on the death in London of former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko, has flatly dismissed media reports alleging that Russian and British investigators repeatedly interrogated him on Tuesday.
“There have not been any investigatory actions today. I have only signed a protocol on not divulging preliminary investigation secrecy, and the signing of a protocol is not, as it is known, an investigatory action,†he told ITAR-TASS.
Berezovsky and Goldfarb and Zakayev must be getting pretty concerned about now. They do seem awefully eager to please all of a sudden. It is not good to pollute the home of someone who has given you shelter.
BTW, here is an interview of Lugovoi in Der Spiegel from a while back which is interesting. I have meetings today but will try to drop in and blog when I can. Update: This is fascinating reading and I hope I can join the debate later today, but one thing that should be noted about Polonium 210 poisoning is it can happen over time. If a person repeatedly visits a location where Polonium 210 is being handled one can build up the toxin to the point it becomes deadly. I only note that because Lugovoi and Kovtun stated Litvinenko was claiming to be poisoned as early as Oct 16th. I would wager this smuggling effort, if it is one, went on for months and involved many more carriers than we are seeing reported now.
Berezovsky and Goldfarb and Zakayev must be getting pretty concerned about now. They do seem awefully eager to please all of a sudden. It is not good to pollute the home of someone who has given you shelter.
Now, why on earth would Berezovsky have alerted authorities in 2002 to a Chechen terrorist trying to sell him a dirty bomb, but then today he’s doing such? Does not make sense. Even if you think Berezovsky is a bad character, the act of alerting the authorities that people are approaching him for illicit materials sales puts him on both the Brit and CIA surveillance list!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1325302,00.html
I suspect there were a number of intended assasination targets – i think with the aim of discrediting Putin and attacking the Oligarchs. Whether the Russian government was involved or not the damage has been done. The worlds focus is now on Russia and its shortcomings and a wide range of people are airing their critisism of Russia from the British Ambassador to lots of Business people saying that Russia is a bad place to do Business.
And as Jerry has said the cost of Polonium is irrelevant if you steal it or have a production facility at your disposal.
i think with the aim of discrediting Putin and attacking the Oligarchs.
And what group would have a vested interest in targeting Putin and punishing the billionaire Oligarch’s, who refused with all their money, to fund and aide (see link above) a nuclear terrorist act aimed at Putin’s gov’t?
Chechen terrorist’s? Could be.
“Beating the contamination.”
I wonder if Swiss docs aren’t offering donor bone marrow transplants?
Where would you get enough people to “volunteer.” The black market is full of stuff where non-voluntary people are poor enough. And, it comes out of India. Perhaps, “prisoners” in china, too?
Don’t put anything past the black marketeers. They can find everything they want “hot.” And, why wouldn’t blood transfusions, and/or bone marrow substitutions be in order? If you could afford it?
And, yes. Hush-hush. Won’t be done in England. SOCIALIZED MEDICINE DOESN’T WORK.
Could be done in the USA. But doctors have to fill out forms. And, report “stuff.” Not like the old days, where rich women, having abortions, had all sorts of “diagnoses” put on their files. Including to cover the operating room time: Appendicites.
Where is the money trail? Maybe there is no money trail. Picture this: Litvinenko, Lugovoi & Kovtun are the smugglers. They are smuggling polonium from Iran to the Chechens free of charge.
Item: Berreszovsky has said he would overthrow the Russian government and take power there with atomic power. He might have told the authorities about past nuclear would-be sales but really that story was full of holes and not something he could use. These people are devious and it does not pay to take them at face value.
Item: Litvinenko was Bereszovsky’s man both in Russia and in England. Depended on him for his living. Would be a high mucky-muck if Bereszovsky succeeding in taking over Russia. Did Bereszovsky’s bidding without extra pay. The story that he was assigned to murder Bereszovsky and switched sides was a fallacy.
Item: Lugovoi was also Bereszovsky’s man while Bereszovsky was in Russia. He didn’t flee with Bereszovsky as Litvinenko did but wound up in prison for more than a year. A lot of resentment there against Putin. He also would be a high mucky-muck in a Bereszovsky government if he proved his loyalty.
Item: Kovtun was a partner of Lugovoi in Russia and he could also get on the gravy train.
All three were more or less Bereszovsky’s men. All three were contaminated each time they smuggled polonium to London. They tracked it all over London, Hamburg and Moscow. If they had a falling out they would have everything to lose and nothing to gain. There has been no indication that there was a falling out. On the contrary, there were cordial relations all around. Even promises of a future meeting.
As far as a rival gang eliminating these three players, how would they know about them? There was no effort to sell the stuff. No money changed hands. They already had a customer at the very beginning. There was no way they could know unless they carried geiger counters with them at all times on the off chance someone else was horning in on their business. This is silly.
Bereszovsky has been very quiet lately. His spin through Goldfarb was someone covering his tracks and diverting attention from himself from this action. But the fact of the matter is that he was friends with Zakayev who is a member of the shadow government of Chechnya and who wants independence for Chechnya. No matter how you slice it they are terrorists. He has said he plans to take over Russia with atomic power. How does anyone think he can do this without some catastrophe happening
inside Russia? And never forget Al Quaeda is still looking for a safe harbor from which to attack the rest of the world. And they might plan on Chechnya being that harbor or maybe even Russia itself with all its nuclear weapons. That’s a chilling thought.
Yesterday I linked to other Russian “nuclear swindlers”. In the cases linked, the product was stolen or procured from government facilities. In the cases linked the “swindlers” were asking for only $50K for the product on the black market.
No one answered the question yesterday – why are these alleged smugglers up into the $35 MILLION range?
If this is smuggling for profit, it has to have a end line user.
Is it terrorists? Why would terrorists pay $35 MILLION for this product when they can get it for considerably less from their neighbor and terror sponsor – Iran?
If the end line user is not terrorists – who is it? Who else would want this product and pay $35 MILLION for it? No one. There is no black market for this product except for terrorism.
The only reason this radioactive substance was smuggled is because it is illegal to transport it without declaring it as a Hazardous Material.
The reason Sasha was assassinated is because he knew too much. He was possibly blackmailing Kremlin members with the info he had.
Why kill him with PO 210? Because it is virtually untraceable, it sent a specific message, with one sip of tea the victim was sentenced to death, and he unknowingly contaminated many more people and possible targets.
As you can see – there is no trace of the murderer/s.
Carol
Getting a match for bone marrow transplant is not as easy as you think.
Re: ‘massive dose’.
How do you cut up half a speck, invisible to the naked eye to administer the right dose?
I’d like to know exactly what form the PO was in. But it appears that it dispersed so widely and variously that it is hard to see how you could target anyone with any precision.
A German official says Kovtun was spreading a trail ‘as soon as he landed from Moscow’. The point when he was marked?
“A 1996 Forbes magazine article titled “Godfather of the Kremlin?”, by Paul Klebnikov, portrayed Berezovsky as a mafia boss who had his rivals murdered. Berezovsky sued the magazine for libel, and the dispute was ultimately settled with the magazine retracting both claims. Klebnikov expanded the article into a book, Godfather of the Kremlin, that Berezovsky did not contest in court. Klebnikov subsequently became the editor of the Russian edition of Forbes and was murdered in Moscow on July 9, 2004.”
I know that in 2001 Boris applied for asylum. The revelation of a smuggling ring in 2002 might have been done to make things easier for him or hurt a rival. Boris also officially changed his name to Platon Elenin in 2003.
In order to understand why he might have turned in a smuggling operation in 2002 you would probably be well served to look into his situation at that time. He appears to have a serious axe to grind with Putin and it isn’t only over energy. Boris had some media interests that were delt with harshly too.
Has anyone ever thought that maybe we are not talking about one dirty bomb but a lot of dirty bombs? To take over Russia would require a lot of them and with the amount of polonium involved in this case maybe they already have them. Maybe they already had the bombs and were waiting for the polonium to use as triggers and not they have it also.
I hope the authorities are looking into this theory. It’s very alarming. They really should be looking at every facet of this case just to be on the safe side.
For all those looking for a money trail for the smuggling ring, I suggest they show the money trail for th assassins. If Lugovoi and/or Kovtun were the assassins, they should be recently wealthier!
More meetings this afternoone,
AJStrata
Oh My. Seems like the Russians do indeed like to use radioactive material to eliminate – business competitors.
Hmmm. Maybe Sasha was just a lowly business competitor.
“Rossiya TV concluded that those who do wish to buy radioactive materials on the black market may plan to build a dirty bomb [also known as a radiation dispersal device] or to eliminate a business competitor.”
http://www.nti.org/db/nistraff/2005/20050350.htm
The contamination in Hamburg was not serious:
“according to Gerald Kirchner of Germanys’ radiation protection agency.
‘The contamination in the apartment is roughly equal to what a smoker would be exposed to if he smoked several packs of cigarettes or strong cigars’â€
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/44158da0-8985-11db-a876-0000779e2340.html
We’ll never get a decent report about that “Spiegel house” in Russia I think, I’d guess we’d see the same result; BTW, we haven’t heard anything about Lugovoi being terribly ill during his recent Q&A.
Here’s the Scaramella update I posted earlier:
“Mario Scaramella first claimed to have been hit with five times the lethal dose of polonium 210…. Then two days ago, he walked out of the hospital with minute traces of radioactive poisoning but was otherwise perfectly fine. ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/09/world/europe/09poison.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&fta=y&pagewanted=print
So looks like we are back to square one:
Terrorists/Dirty Bomb/Smugglers
Assassin/Smuggler
I adjust the dosage of Po, put it in solution, dilute, and use as needed.
I would say a rival of Boris’ might have reason to want to wack some of Boris’ guys. Maybe someone whose own smuggling operation was exposed years ago, maybe someone else. That person might even want to make it look like Boris’ people were smuggling.
One thing is for certain in my mind, it isn’t the Russian government. Most likely either that group themselves or a rival group. Another thing that wouldn’t surprise me would be to learn that polonium was put in that teacup to make it LOOK like he was poisoned there. There sure seems to be a large amount in that teacup. Also seems too obvious. Everything about this seems too obvious. Just killing Litvinenko would have sent any “message” if that is the point. This is something else. There is absolutely no need to go through all of this. Now that the two other Russians are sick … they are not expats, killing them wouldn’t send any message to the Russian expat community except possibly “don’t associate with Berezovsky”.
If it was smuggling, expect others to fall ill soon.
Also, anyone know the date Litvinenko’s hair started falling out?
I agree the $35M is a red herring. As for the assassination theory implicating Putin, there is no cost associated with obtaining something that you already have. Just issue a discrete order to remove the product to another location for disposal or something.
As far as smuggling goes, I doubt there would be such a high price associated with it. For years, it has been theorized that some disgruntled Russian nuclear worker would sell out something like this for very little money. Using all of the former Russian security service goombahs could easily lead to the proper kind of contact on the inside of the nuclear industry. For starters, I would look for enhanced bank accounts or lifestyle changes of all of the nuclear workers where Po might be handled to see if there was a compromise somewhere. Otherwise, they will be left to grill the existing players to try to come up with what really happened.
Ha! Make that “To adjust the dosage of Po….”
Litvinenko somewhere was quoted (read it last week) that polonium was on the black market for something like $2 million/gram.
Sammy – agreed – Russian nuclear workers in a desperate bid to up their lot in life would steal this product and sell it for $50K.
In addition, Chechens have stolen radioactive products from nuclear sites for many years. Why buy it for $35 mil if they can get it by stealing it, or forcing a Russian worker to steal it?
For many years terrorists have tried to obtain nuclear products. They have not been successful, so the black market is there but it sure as heck is not a multi million dollar market. The market is hot for plutonium – much harder to obtain and infinitely more valuable.
This product was used because someone knew how it worked
At any rate, this episode has now educated terrorists in the products they need for a successful “dirty bomb”. There will definitely be a market for it now.