Dec 12 2006
Litvinenko Dosage Was Massive
There is an article out today which helps put the dosage of Polonium 210 into perpsective, and a history lesson which would dictate the Litvinenko incident was not an assassination. It is the only recorded death by Polonium 210, and clearly demontrates Polonium is not a weapon of assassination:
A low-dose exposure was blamed for causing the death of Irene Joliot-Curie, the daughter of Marie Curie, who first isolated polonium.
Irene died in 1956 of leukemia caused by accidental exposure when a sealed capsule of the metal exploded on her laboratory bench. Polonium’s alpha rays damage DNA, although in Irene’s case they took more than 10 years to do their deadly work.
Litvinenko passed away much more quickly. On Nov. 23, the 43-year-old died in a London hospital from the intense radiation polonium emits, having ingested it sometime in late October. Even though the dose of poison was tiny — maybe no more than the weight of a speck of dust — it was deadly.
…
The maximum safe body burden of polonium is only 7 picograms (7 trillionth of a gram). It appears that Litvinenko was given something like a milligram (a thousandth of a gram), which is a billion times the safe level. Polonium-210 is regarded as one of the most dangerous substances known because it ejects alpha particles.
The history shows ten years before the first accidental exposure to what must have been a large amount of Polonium dust took its victim. True, the Curie’s were scientists and they took precautions. But an assassin would have to consider this example a poor result. The assassin theory has mutiple conflicting assumptions. First the assassin is sophisticated so he/she selects this exotic weapon. Then it turns out they know little about the weapon and the trail it leaves:
Whoever the assassin was, he or she had some method of concealing the poison before it was given to Litvinenko. The hidden poison would be undetectable because this isotope emits almost no telltale gamma rays. However, polonium has a tendency to leak from containers. This probably explains why traces have been found in five airliners, particularly those used for flights to Moscow. (Passengers in those aircraft were not at risk.)
Where Litvinenko was poisoned is still not known. But wherever he went after he was poisoned, he left traces of polonium, including his home in the north London suburb of Muswell Hill, a sushi restaurant near Piccadilly Circus where he dined with a friend, a luxury hotel where he met two unidentified Russians, and the home of Russian billionaire exile Boris Berezovsky. His room in the hospital was the most contaminated.
So was this a smart assassin? Apparently not. But why hire a low brow (and low budget) assassin to deliver a poison which costs tens of millions of dollars? That makes no sense either. Polonium 210 is useful as a weapon. Very useful. But that use has nothing to do with poison pills in tea. That is not an effective use of Polonium 210. Its role in a nuclear device or dirty bomb is much more deadly and cost effective. Now, you don’t need to tell a smuggler exactly what they are smuggling when you want to transport contraband. And smugglers might not think or even know about the trail Polonium 210 can leave. If I was in on the smuggling and then took ill, I would spend some serious time negotiating an air tight role as a whistle blower to get as light a sentence as possible in any prosecutions. The radiation poisoning would be punishment enough in many people’s minds.
On a slightly separate topic I would expect people involved in a smuggling ring that went bust like the Litvinenko incident might have to start running for cover. And that is apparently what we see.
Paris. A key witness in Litvinenko case,
Andrey[Evgeny; ajstrata] Limarev, has disappeared from his home in the French Alps, the Echo of Moscow Radio reported citing a statement of News Ru. Limarev is a former Federal Security Service agent and a colleague of Alexander Litvinenko, who was poisoned recently in London. Some time ago, Limarev accused a former agent of the Federal Security Service, of Litvinenko’s death. Limarev told the British press that he would be the next victim. A day later, he went missing.
l which will be twisted by those trying to divert attention from themselves as some sort of act by Putin. Clearly someone is trying to hide something and some form of cleaning up is taking place.
Major Update: I can confidentally predict Lugovoi has signed a plea agreement in this matter:
Russian businessman Andrei Lugovoy, a presumed key witness in the case on the death in London of former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko, has flatly dismissed media reports alleging that Russian and British investigators repeatedly interrogated him on Tuesday.
“There have not been any investigatory actions today. I have only signed a protocol on not divulging preliminary investigation secrecy, and the signing of a protocol is not, as it is known, an investigatory action,†he told ITAR-TASS.
Berezovsky and Goldfarb and Zakayev must be getting pretty concerned about now. They do seem awefully eager to please all of a sudden. It is not good to pollute the home of someone who has given you shelter.
BTW, here is an interview of Lugovoi in Der Spiegel from a while back which is interesting. I have meetings today but will try to drop in and blog when I can. Update: This is fascinating reading and I hope I can join the debate later today, but one thing that should be noted about Polonium 210 poisoning is it can happen over time. If a person repeatedly visits a location where Polonium 210 is being handled one can build up the toxin to the point it becomes deadly. I only note that because Lugovoi and Kovtun stated Litvinenko was claiming to be poisoned as early as Oct 16th. I would wager this smuggling effort, if it is one, went on for months and involved many more carriers than we are seeing reported now.
Clarice
This story needs a Fedora!
Also:
USEC Inc. (NYSE: USU), a global energy company, is the world’s leading supplier of enriched uranium fuel for commercial nuclear power plants. Revenues in 2004 totaled $1.4 billion.
Through its subsidiary, the United States Enrichment Corporation, USEC operates the only uranium enrichment facility in the United States: a gaseous diffusion plant in Paducah, Kentucky.
In the early 1990s, USEC was created as a government corporation in order to restructure the government’s uranium enrichment operation and prepare it for sale to the private sector. USEC’s privatization was completed on July 28, 1998.
(Clarice, take note of that date of completion)
Actually – check out most of that link….
Amazing how many murders are linked to the Kremlin. If you scroll to the bottom of the page – Yukos director – murdered. 5 business men had conflict with Yukos – murdered.
Lukoil – Senior manager steps down after grandson and his girlfriend are murdered
Perhaps Kovtun did lie on that sunbed too long – or perhaps he was just trying to make the waters more murky with his shaved head…
Hmmm….what is Kwik? Same link above-
Moscow, chechenian Sergej Krymgerei arrested In october 2002 was in Moscow the chechenian Sergej Krymgerei arrested he had a bottle which contained 8 kilos of kwik probably for a poison attack. He is suspected of being part of the gang of Sjamil Basajev
In fact I think the assassination theory is beginning to look very likely – if Kovtun and Lugovoi are not seriously sick but only have traces of polonium, it seems this was a bungled assassination. They were supposed to irradiate Litvinenko over a period of time, so that he would only become sick by the time the polonium trail had vanished, but they bungled the operation and gave him too much on November 1.
If it was an assassination, it is the most bungled in all history. If it is an assassination, we have not one but several people screwing up at several different times.
There is nothing in physical evidence that would say it was assassination and a lot that would point to either smuggling or someone trying to deliberately point the finger at moscow but a little to exaggerated.
This is a characature of an assassination. But sadly, there are many who “want to believe” a particular outcome and project their personal beliefs onto the story.
There is not enough evidence at this point to say one way or the other. I am pretty certain it isn’t a government hit, though because it would have been done a lot differently even if they had used polonium.
Hell, it wouldn’t even surprise me if Litvinenko was in the “witness protection program” someplace and isn’t even really dead. Nothing would surprise me about this case except Russian government involvment and if they are involved, there is going to be hell for them to pay on many levels.
CP- I agree that a lot of the speculation is driven by people wanting to believe a particular theory, and it’s true that we don’t have enough info. But this latest stuff from Kovtun in the Spiegel is too much to swallow. First he shaves his head to make himself look like a victim, puts out the sunbed tale and the ‘marking’ story about the FSB using materials to mark suspects under investigation just to muddy the waters, the prosecutor says he’s in a coma, then he declares he’s fine and should be let out of hospital in a week. The trail would never have been found if Litvinenko had died in six months time.
Ts–I know quite a bit about USEC–It has nothing to do with this case. I a m sure of it.
Yes, Enlightened, the mysterious deaths of all these people cannot be ignored.I am unpersuaded by all the arguments that this was not an assassination attempt. I am agnostic as to whether Lugovoy and Kovtun were assassins or contaminated bystanders/targets of a frame up.
Interesting – Someone that knows the Kremlin ways is possitive Sahsa was assassinated, and Russia has used radioactive poison as the tool previously.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MzY4NWU2ZjY3YWYxMDllNWQ5MjQ3ZGJmMzg3MmQyNjQ=
The guy defected to the US during the Carter administration. About the only thing of value in the story is to confirm that Moscow has radioactive poisons and has used them in the past.
I assumed those two things to be true from the begining.
Kovtun and Lugovoi as the assassins? Hmmm. Funny how they ran home to the motherland. I’m not convinced they were assassins.
However. To me a pattern is emerging of murder/Chechnya/Putin critic.
If you google Litvinenko or Berezovsky or Anna and CHECHNYA – you get many links to articles that they are intertwined with.
However, Lugovoi and Kovtun are not linked to any – and they have mad-dashed BACK to Russia. That is disconcerting. IMO I think Chechnya holds the secret, Putin cannot afford for it to come out and all critics get the ultimate punishment. But not Lugovoi and Kovtun – they are secreted away in Russia and protected by the Kremlin.
And if we are to believe that the exposure took place earlier than 1 Nov – why isn’t Sokolenko contaminated – at all?
Who cares when he defected? A pattern is a pattern is a pattern.
In answer to an earlier question, kwik is apparently mercury.
I also find perplexing – Russian organized crime is prevalent in the Kremlin. There are a handful of gangs that are the top crime families. They basically drive the whole Russian black market – radioactive, drug, human trafficking, prostitution etc.
So how is it that these 3 gentlemen, pretty low on the totem pole for all intents and purposes as far as the black markets go – be entrusted to smuggle an alleged $35 Million dollar product?
That valuable a product does not go quietly into the organized crime night –
Thanks Clarice – those Russians sure do love poison don’t they.
Oh My – another pattern.
Poison, Russians, assassination tool, Chechnya link.
I think it’s pretty obvious what is going on.
So is Putin really training Zawahiri? I think the world would love to know that.
It is important when he defected because it would tend to argue against him having any specific knowledge in this particular case. I would also speculate that we have probably used such weapons during the cold war too, doesn’t mean we did it in this case.
Boris was a supporter of the Chechens
Boris probably has access to black market nuclear materials
Litvinenko has smuggled such materials in the past and even mentioned polonium by name as being available on that market.
The Chechens would be dearly wanting the stuff.
The contamination pattern is more consistant with trafficing in the material than with an assassin handling a small amount of poison needed to kill someone.
The contamination trail and the doses received by the contaminated individuals would seem to indicate handling more polonium that would be needed to kill one person.
The dose ingested by Litvinenko was enough to kill 100 people.
The teacup was left behind to be found, apparently still highly contaminated and had apparently contaminated 7 other people simply by handling it … so you have to have an assassin willing to contaminate themself if that is really the scenario.
Maybe it is a combination of both. Maybe they were smuggling polonium, the Russians discovered it and killed Litvinenko with the very stuff he was smuggling. That would also explain wanting the authorities to discover the polonium by giving him such a high dose. That is the *only* scenario I can think of that benefits Russia.
Outright assassination in this manner does not benefit the Russians at all. And in fact, could be quite harmful to Russia and Putin.
In fact, I think I am gonna bail for a while until some hard evidence comes up because this place is starting sound rather insane at this point. The lack of any new evidence is causing speculation on speculation and stuff flying off into outer space. Next we will have Putin responsible for global warming and the ozone hole.
I am no Putin fan but this is just getting nuts.
Enlightened, thank you for that NRO article. I have now heard 2 former KGB officer-defectors to the west say much the same thing. But this article has the most detail.
Since thalliu was the radioactive poison used before, that was the first thing the Brits tested for. When it was established that it wasn’t thallium, they were stumped until hours before Litvinenko’s death. That’s my answer to those who ask why PO? Had it not been for the fortuitous discovery of the poison it is likely we’d have no traces to check.
CP – it could in fact be an assassination designed to look like smuggling, or indeed the Russian authorities intervening in a smuggling ring which already exists and putting the polonium to their own use. In either case, it seems unlikely that two businessmen and former KGB agents would want to hang out with Berezovsky and co to do business, given the consequences they would face back in Russia. Outright assassination certainly wouldn’t help Putin, and I doubt that he is behind it. More likely a rival for his job in 2008 – kill two birds with one stone.
Clarice – exactly. If Litvinenko had not been ‘overdosed’ the trail would not have come to light. Curie’s daughter died of leukemia ten years after being accidentally contaminated.