Dec 13 2006
New Clues Emerge In Litvinenko Incident
Two new clues have emerged in the puzzle that is the Litvinenko incident. There are now some vague reports of another Russian of interest associated with Kovtun and his trip to Hamburg from Moscow in October (before Litvinenko fell ill):
An unnamed Russian businessman who flew from Moscow to Hamburg on October 28 with Mr Kovtun is also being sought. Police believe this flight was used to transport polonium-210 into Europe.
There is also another hotel that has tested positive for Polonium-210, which again bolsters the idea this was some sort of large smuggling ring verses some targeted assassination:
In addition, a Swedish couple that had stayed at the Shaftesbury Hotel near Picadilly were Tuesday tested at the oncology unit at Lund University Hospital in southern Sweden, the Stockholm daily Expressen reported.
The hotel room the couple had stayed in apparently had traces of polonium.
Seems like an awefully large group of people for an assassination someone wanted to look like an accident.
Also today, Dmitry Kovtun speaks out and claims Litvinenko was the one who contaminated him, and that it happened on Oct 16-18. This is possible and plausible since Polonium 210 was found at hotels associated with Lugovoi’s visit to London and meetings with Litvinenko. We also have, someplace back in my posts on this subject, I believe Lugovoi’s statement that Litvinenko told him he had poisoned himself before Nov 1st. While it is hard to put much stock in Lugovoi’s word by itself, I find it worth considering since he seems to be a cooperating witness, possibly under a plea agreement.
Update: Both Lugovoi and Kovtun are pointing to Oct 16-18th as the logical (as we all know) first time for Polonium 210 contamination for Litvinenko:
Andrei Lugovoi, a security agent-turned-businessman who met with Litvinenko at a London hotel on Nov. 1, the day Litvinenko suspected he was poisoned, said in an interview with the Moskovsky Komsomolets tabloid that he and Litvinenko were poisoned on Oct. 16.
“Who told you that the contamination took place on Nov. 1? It took place much earlier, on Oct. 16,” Lugovoi was quoted as saying by the paper. Lugovoi is himself undergoing radiation checks in a Moscow clinic.
Litvinenko, 43, a former Russian agent and a Kremlin critic, died Nov. 23 of poisoning from polonium-210.
Lugovoi supported his claim by saying that he and Litvinenko visited a London-based security firm where traces of polonium were later found only in mid-October, but did not go there on Nov. 1, meaning that the contamination couldn’t have taken place on that day.
While Lugovoi is being a bit disingenuous with this logic due to the massive radiation signatures at the Millenium Hotel Room and bar, he is being more accurate than the reporting coming out of the UK media – which has been obsessed with the assassination theory. It should be noted though, that Litvinenko’s final dosage could have been the result of a number of contacts with Polonium-210 which was not being handled properly. He could have been building up his poison levels over many weeks, and received a final larger dose on Nov 1. But I am only pointing this out to show there are lots of reasonable scenarios based on what is known to date. The media has jumped the gun – like usual.
I’m pretty sure that statement about poisoning himself was a mistranslation of had food poisoning.
I know you are busy but you skipped thru a lot of rebuttal points on yesterday’s thread.
Yesterday you said:”I can confidentally predict Lugovoi has signed a plea agreement in this matter”
I pointed out that “protocol” was a continental law practice of summarizing a witness statement and getting the signatures of all involved to that statement. Nothing about a protocol (the only back up for your statement) indicates a pleas agreement and no report of such an agreement appears anywhere.
As for Limarev’s disappearance, Capt Ed points out , correctly I think, that those most familiar with Putin are running for cover, knowing that the Brits cannot protect them from his reach, that in fact the assassins of Litvinenko got exactly what they aimed for:silencing of dissent.
Since it is more or less established that this was probably not an intentional murder, we need to look at where the PO came from and where it was going! I feel that the smuggling theory is pretty much a given, but most media news just has to play catch up to the events. I also wanted to bring up another point that interested me from the beginning, when we learned that it was PO that killed Litvinenko, and not Thallium.
The only time we can find Polonium 210 in a fictional book, is in Frederick Forsyth’s novel “The Fourth Protocol”. The Fourth Protocol was published in 1984 and involves renegade elements within the Soviet Union attempting to plant a nuclear bomb near an American airbase in the UK, intending to influence the upcoming British elections and lead to the election of an anti-NATO, anti-American, and anti-nuclear Labour government. You should read the entire plot!
Today, we have European Newspapers carry a report from the German language site Russland.ru describing a Theory that the PO was supposed to be smuggled for Iran. The sites also states that Iran produced PO in 2005 as a sources for a nuclear weapon.
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/
Clarice (and everyone else),
Sorry I cannot join the thread discussions more. Wall to wall meetings. I will see if I can get some time. Barely time to read up on the news.
Cheers, AJStrata
Oh come on this is ridiculous, the Swedes were in the Pine Bar at the Millennium – that’s where they got contaminated, they’re not part of this exponentially inflating imaginary smuggling ring (don’t forget those contaminated Irish folks – they were after Gaidar too) . It takes only rudimentary consciousness to understand this. And to the claim of a “massive radiation signature” in room 411… (very rude section deleted)! More hopeful elaboration to bolster the vast smuggling hypothesis. As to L/K, if Sasha was contaminated before November 1 there will be evidence, just as, unfortunately, already exists for L/K. The Third Man story is interesting, maybe this is Igor the limping assassin who’s last known position was in Italy.
bsuppan..smuggled FOR Iran? Your cite is too non specific for me to find the article you are referring to. Yes, we have seen quite a bit indicating Iran produces PO. But no evidence that it or any other country was smuggling it into UK for a dirty bomb. None. Zip. Nada. Gornisht.
I think there is one more theory that fits the facts: A hit designed to frame Putin. I have a hard time with the level of incompetence with either theory, be it assassination or smuggling.
Jerry, have you ever stated why you think the smuggling theory is so absurd? I don’t see how anyone could favor assassination over smuggling in such an out of hand manner, as if it were a given.
I’m not Jerry, but I think it is the smuggler’s gulchers who are lacking evidence. Putin or his cronies had the means (govt supplied PO ), motive (sioence a critic and opportunity to assassinate Litvinenko.
You ignore that the amounts of PO found everywhere but Litvinenko’s cup were infinitesmal, the sort that could be found in shedding off a contaminated person; that the Germans have said the amounts found there were small–so small they cannot ascertain if it was because Kovtun ingested some and excreted it or shed it from some external contamination (i.e. handling it), and most of all you refuse to note the numerous incidences of the Russians using nuclear and biological poisons against their enemies–including Putin’s, and the enormous corruption and thuggery of his administration.
Nor can you indicate any group or person except Putin who had reason to smuggle PO into the UK.
The Brits have been on guard since August for a dirty bomb on their soil and yet they are not treating this as part of such a plot.
Jerry check the papers – SOME of the Swedes were in the bar – a couple (Swedes) stayed in a room containing polonium – however whether the Shaftsbury hotel is the Millenium I have no idea as I don’t know London geography
The Shaftebury is not the Millenium. It is a hotel where L/K stayed earlier and where PO was found inside a hotel room/s.
I think the way I’d describe it is that AJ opposes the assassination theory and tends to ignore my very good defenses for this being an assassination, at least in part. That leads to my second point which is that AJ frames the discussion as a choice between assassination and smuggling, which I have pointed out is a false choice (it could be both for instance), I think he does this mainly to stimulate discussion.
My own feeling about smuggling is that it is an interesting idea I hadn’t thought of until AJ described it, I can’t come up with a great reason for the people that we’re aware of to do any smuggling, there isn’t any money trail yet described, the evidence that AJ cites for a smuggling ring usually is elaborated far beyond what has been reported (the “massive” or “severe” contamination in room 411 for instance) , and lastly, that simply bringing Po210 into the UK to kill Sasha qualifies as smuggling so in some sense “assassination” and “smuggling” are inevitably entwined anyway.
Here’s a link about Igor the limping assassin, in case you thought I was confabulating:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=418820&in_page_id=1770
“Jerry check the papers – SOME of the Swedes were in the bar”
but this is just the some old story of contamination spreading through human contact, just like in Hamburg, etc…. so they go to the Pine Bar and probably get contaminated in the men’s room, go and meet their friends and contaminate them, go back to their hotel room and contaminate it, etc…..
Way too many possibilites of what could have is still happening from the facts we know now.
If it were a smuggling ring, which seems plausible, where did the other PO go? Can it be transported to leave no traces? If so were the trails left a deliberate distraction, part of accident(s) or just the second teams mistakes?
Still could be a botched, too many people effected, hit, and/or part of smuggling operation with an exposure accident in London (and car accident in Germany?-maybe damaged the transport container??).
or a puposely designed distraction to consume investigators time while something else happens (Iran finishes a bomb, dirty bomb, or other attack).
Smuggling to Iran for aiding that countries weapons develolment, smuggle to UK for an attack, or to Russia for an attack are all posibilities. Half life of PO means if there is a use other than a hit, then it must be moved to somewhere soon.
I apologize–I was wrong about the Shaftesbury. http://www.discountcityhotels.com/London/Hotels/Shaftesbury-Hotel-Piccadilly-INFO.htm
I checked thru the earlier Times map and realized it was not in the original reports. It is in Picadilly which IIRC may place it near the Sushi bar.
Two points. First, we don’t know what they are or aren’t investigating. We only know what reporters are telling us and they had myopic vision from the start. Litinvenko started them on a path and they have stayed on it. Whether he was correct, or merely diverting, has yet to be fully determined. And second, we don’t know there isn’t a money trail. Just because they aren’t reporting it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. England has a secrets act, don’t they? They will hold their information closer than the US would. From the Plame experience, those who followed it know that it is easy to frame the debate in the early stages and it takes massive efforts to move reporters and the public away from that early framing. Clarice of all people should realize that.
Of course, we do not know everything the authorities who are investigating this know, but we can follow their public trail and that trail is showing no signs of a search for a smuggling run planning to use a dirty bomb, nor any evidence of a money trail, If what Scaramella and Limarev warned Litvinenko is true, there is a group of henchmen of Putin’s (former FSB) called Dignity and Honour who have taken it upon themselves to assassinate by themselves or thru hired hitmen Putin’s enemies–who seem to be being felled at a rapid clip these days.
Clarice,
Yes Putin had the means, certainly; the motive is less clear. Litvinenko was a failed writer living off of his billionaire benefactor–the same man who claims to have interrupted a nuclear smuggling ring in the past. But there are other sources of polonium besides the Russian administration–rogue elements, the Chechnens, the Iranians, etc.
AJ has not ignored that the amounts were less concentrated elsewhere, in fact that is a part of his theory, namely that a cup was used to temporarily store the PO.
I have not “refused to note” anything, in fact I think that bolsters the smuggling theory. Why would Putin use something so rare, difficult to handle, and available to so few, that could or would easily be traced back to him, as you yourself are doing? And I don’t buy the fact that it’s hard to trace: It has been traced, and rather quickly.
There are several groups that would want to bring PO into the UK, they’re so obvious that it’s not worth a mention. The Brits are not treating this as a part of the plot PUBLICLY, who knows what they think privately. Again, the current warning level in the UK of a probable dirty bomb attack absolutely supports the smuggling theory and not the assassination theory.
Jerry,
There is no money trail yet, period. Assassins get paid too. Money cannot be traced overnight, so it doesn’t mean it won’t be found, in fact it may have already been established. If that’s the main reason you think smuggling is a longshot, I’ll take the other side of the bet.
If. Keep in mind you have to still use the word ‘if’. I am still agnostic about both theories, but if I have learned one thing over the last several years it is not to take early reporting at face value. Even what they seem to be investigating, since early reporting had Rove frog marched and all signs pointed in that direction.
The Shaftesbury hotel and the Itsu Sushi bar are both within minutes’ walk of the Picadilly tube station..this suggests that the contamination in that hotel may also have been of the tracked in variety. If, for example, Litvinenko was poisoned earlier at the Millenium and began excreting PO at the Sushi bar someone there might have picked up some and tracked it back to the hotel. And we have reason to think he was shedding some because Scaramella had some contamination.
Clarice,
here is the link to the http://www.russland.ru/schlagzeilen/morenews.php?iditem=32058
Sorry, the report is in German.
thanks Clarice re the Shaftsbury hotel – I’m working and blogging and the work took precedence temporarily!