Dec 13 2006
New Clues Emerge In Litvinenko Incident
Two new clues have emerged in the puzzle that is the Litvinenko incident. There are now some vague reports of another Russian of interest associated with Kovtun and his trip to Hamburg from Moscow in October (before Litvinenko fell ill):
An unnamed Russian businessman who flew from Moscow to Hamburg on October 28 with Mr Kovtun is also being sought. Police believe this flight was used to transport polonium-210 into Europe.
There is also another hotel that has tested positive for Polonium-210, which again bolsters the idea this was some sort of large smuggling ring verses some targeted assassination:
In addition, a Swedish couple that had stayed at the Shaftesbury Hotel near Picadilly were Tuesday tested at the oncology unit at Lund University Hospital in southern Sweden, the Stockholm daily Expressen reported.
The hotel room the couple had stayed in apparently had traces of polonium.
Seems like an awefully large group of people for an assassination someone wanted to look like an accident.
Also today, Dmitry Kovtun speaks out and claims Litvinenko was the one who contaminated him, and that it happened on Oct 16-18. This is possible and plausible since Polonium 210 was found at hotels associated with Lugovoi’s visit to London and meetings with Litvinenko. We also have, someplace back in my posts on this subject, I believe Lugovoi’s statement that Litvinenko told him he had poisoned himself before Nov 1st. While it is hard to put much stock in Lugovoi’s word by itself, I find it worth considering since he seems to be a cooperating witness, possibly under a plea agreement.
Update: Both Lugovoi and Kovtun are pointing to Oct 16-18th as the logical (as we all know) first time for Polonium 210 contamination for Litvinenko:
Andrei Lugovoi, a security agent-turned-businessman who met with Litvinenko at a London hotel on Nov. 1, the day Litvinenko suspected he was poisoned, said in an interview with the Moskovsky Komsomolets tabloid that he and Litvinenko were poisoned on Oct. 16.
“Who told you that the contamination took place on Nov. 1? It took place much earlier, on Oct. 16,” Lugovoi was quoted as saying by the paper. Lugovoi is himself undergoing radiation checks in a Moscow clinic.
Litvinenko, 43, a former Russian agent and a Kremlin critic, died Nov. 23 of poisoning from polonium-210.
Lugovoi supported his claim by saying that he and Litvinenko visited a London-based security firm where traces of polonium were later found only in mid-October, but did not go there on Nov. 1, meaning that the contamination couldn’t have taken place on that day.
While Lugovoi is being a bit disingenuous with this logic due to the massive radiation signatures at the Millenium Hotel Room and bar, he is being more accurate than the reporting coming out of the UK media – which has been obsessed with the assassination theory. It should be noted though, that Litvinenko’s final dosage could have been the result of a number of contacts with Polonium-210 which was not being handled properly. He could have been building up his poison levels over many weeks, and received a final larger dose on Nov 1. But I am only pointing this out to show there are lots of reasonable scenarios based on what is known to date. The media has jumped the gun – like usual.
Clarice,
Yes Putin had the means, not sure about the motive. Litvinenko was a failed author who made many sensational but dubvious claims about Putin. He was no harm to Putin in London. And PO can come from places other than the Putin administration, including rogue elements in Russia, or Chechnia.
AJ addressed the issue of the cup in detail several days ago, it could have been the temporary vessel that the PO was stored in. On the other hand, you do not address why there was PO all over the place, in places that indicate the trail was made BEFORE the poisoning. I have not ignored the other Russian assassinations, they are what they are. But none of them were foolish enough to use PO.
As for who may want to smuggle PO into the UK, that is so obvious that I can’t see why you would mention it. The fact that the Brits are on alert for a dirty bomb directly supports the smuggling theory, not the other way around. They are only not PUBLICLY treating it as a part of this story, neither you nor I know what they are doing behind the scenes.
Jerry,
Your main problem seems to be with the money trail, which would exist even with assassination, but I don’t see that that has much relevance at this stage. We don’t know what the authorities have found in this regard; they may not ever even let it be known. And again, there has to be money involved either way.
Okay, here’s my two cents’ worth – Kovtun’s words aren’t worth a great deal, IMO. The statement that he was contaminated by Litvinenko on October 16-18 is probably just to explain away the real source of the Hamburg contamination. Given that Kovtun is coming out of his clinic soon and feels as fresh as a spring chicken, and given his I’m-a-victim-too shaved head, his muddying ‘sunbed’ and ‘suspect-marking’ tales, all on top of the claim disseminated by Interfax that he was in a coma, it seems likely that Kovtun and Lugovoi intended to subject Litvinenko to a slow poisoning across their 12-13 meetings (or a single poisoning when minimal trust was established and the opportunity arose). Anyone doing ‘business’ with the London exiles would have to reckon with serious consequences back home in Russia, and these guys are ex-KGB (and now claim they couldn’t stand doing business with Litvinenko). The only bungle was at the Millennium Hotel, when Kovtun and Lugovoi seriously OD’d Litvinenko – if he had died in six months time the polonium trail would have been much harder to trace. Either that or it was meant to look like smuggling. Their rapid flight back to Russia can be explained by the fact that the Russians have already ruled out any extraditions in the case. The article claiming that polonium has a “tendency to leak from containers†contradicts the statement of the German nuclear security expert Manfred Urban – you can carry it safely in a well-knotted freezer bag without leaving a trail, and just make sure you take a good shower every night.
That a cover-up is underway is suggested by (amongst other things) the removal of Trepashkin to a high-security jail after pointing the finger at an FSB colonel who was present at the infamous Litvinenko press conference with a balaclava on his pear. That Litvinenko’s circle would be well infiltrated by the FSB is also clear.
I expect the British to accuse Kovtun and Lugovoi of the murder of Litvinenko, and the Russians to refuse extradition and point to a terrorist smuggling ring within the circle of the London exiles. Many will swallow the smuggling story given Litvinenko’s and Berezovsky’s histories and associates, but no-one organising a terrorist attack with the Chechens is going to announce to the world that the Chechens have an atomic bomb missing a vital ingredient and make a deal of informing the authorities about the fact (as Berezovsky did in 2005). It’s probably an assassination in the guise of a smuggling operation, organised by Putin rivals within the government and security apparatus. And events in the coming days (or Mr. Strata) will probably prove me hopelessly wrong.
“that trail is showing no signs of a search for a smuggling run planning to use a dirty bomb, nor any evidence of a money trail”
I don’t see how you can say that. I see a search of places those guys have been going back weeks before Litvinenko got sick, search of other places they have been (Germany), etc. A money trail is going to be extremely diffucult to find because it is going to be designed to be difficult to find. We also see an increase it activities surrounding response to a dirty bomb in Britain to including ordering 100,000 toxic environment hoods.
If such money trails were easy to find, nobody would ever engage in crime involving money, we would always be able to bust everyone any time we wanted. Money is not hard to hide and you generally need testimony from someone involved to find it if it was intentionally hidden because the transactions will not directly involve the people of interest.
Besides, this investigation is only a couple of weeks old, I would be surprised to get very much information for several months. They are not going to release much before a trial.
on an amusing side note: K & L blame the poisoning on the meeting at Erinys – Erinys guarded the oil wells in Iraq – hence the HALLIBURTON connection! I knew it – Cheney did it
On your comments Clarice,
Yes Putin had the means, not sure about the motive. Litvinenko was a failed author who made many sensational but dubvious claims about Putin. He was no harm to Putin in London. And PO can come from places other than the Putin administration, including rogue elements in Russia, or Chechnia.
AJ addressed the issue of the cup in detail several days ago, it could have been the temporary vessel that the PO was stored in. On the other hand, you do not address why there was PO all over the place, in places that indicate the trail was made BEFORE the poisoning. I have not ignored the other Russian assassinations, they are what they are. But none of them were foolish enough to use PO.
As for who may want to smuggle PO into the UK, that is so obvious that I can’t see why you would mention it. The fact that the Brits are on alert for a dirty bomb directly supports the smuggling theory, not the other way around. They are only not PUBLICLY treating it as a part of this story, neither you nor I know what they are doing behind the scenes.
Jerry,
Your main problem seems to be with the money trail, which would exist even with assassination, but I don’t see that that has much relevance at this stage. We don’t know what the authorities have found in this regard; they may not ever even let it be known. And again, there has to be money involved either way.
yeah, it was Cheney – these guys are shedding waste like a leaky vial of polonium…
I was waiting how long it would take someone to make that connection Lizarde1 ! But what it does show is contact with a potential conduit from Iran as Iranian Revolutionary Guards are known to be smuggling weapons and other contraband into Southern Iraq … where most of the oil infrastructure is.
Putin or his cronies had the means (govt supplied PO ), motive (sioence a critic and opportunity to assassinate Litvinenko.
Could be that K&L were paid by the Russian Govt to be illicit weapons brokers (makes sense to have business people do this) and they channel up that they (K&Lug) have an interested buyer…since the whole group were being shadow/tailed by FSB – the Kremlin learns that their crack broker’s buyer is an associate of Boris and big pain Lit. So they are told to poison Lit but do not identify the substance to L&K….in the library with Miss Scarlet and Colonel Mustard.
I could buy that L&K were the smugglers and L&Berezovsky were the buyers but I don’t think this was authorized by Putin. L&K seem like mafia types – K was a lacky of L – he was allegedly a waiter in Hamburg at one point. Looking at Kovtov’s relation to Lugovoy it seems of the two he could have been the mule at least on two of the trips. But who carried it to London Oct 25? The question is what would L&K stand to gain by helping Boris bring down Putin? It seems to me they were playing both sides just in case. By maintaining a relationship with Boris they were well placed should Putin come down and by staying in Russia and keeping their contacts there they were also well placed to continue to profit from the current Russian situation.
One piece of information is key. Is the polonium being seen in pure metallic form? If so, I would be convinced we see a smuggling ring. An assassin would never be given the metallic form. Contamination from body fluids would probably be in the form of a chloride salt from reaction within the digestive system but if we are seeing metallic contamination anywhere, it would point to traffic in the material. An assassin would never be given the metallic form.
If you give a an assassin a couple of crystals of a polonium salt in a screw-top vial, it isn’t going to leak out. It isn’t going to contaminate his body. He isn’t going to leave a trail and he could have thousands of lethal doses. In other words, a couple of crystals of a polonium salt are not going to leave trails being several people and contaminate hotel rooms, bars, offices, homes, cars, planes, etc.
The contamination trail we are seeing is not consistant with an assassin. I just wish we knew more about the nature of the contamination. But if there are others involed in any smuggling ring, they probably wouldn’t say anything about it because they would want to try to bust the buyer and seller, who I am sure both “went to ground” as soon as Litvinenko got sick.
ok the hotel in Shaftsbury could be a best western per the Iranians:
Radiation testing at the Best Western Hotel on London’s Shaftesbury Avenue found no reason for health concerns, according to the Health Protection Agency. Officials had previously said that radiation had been found at a dozen locations in London.
Tehran Times
also ITN:
http://www.itn.co.uk/news/9a1bc0d651c765965b6f6e7a76727618.html
“you can carry it safely in a well-knotted freezer bag without leaving a trail”
And I’ll give a dollar to anyone crazy enough to do it after all we’ve read, you can’t even seal air into those bags – especially if they’re knotted. That German guy is probably displaying the scientists’ nerdy tendency to act goofy on TV, he’s definitely saying the exact opposite of everything I’ve read about containing Po210. (not it’s ability to be blocked by “a sheet of paper” but it’s ability to escape any container).
CP wouldn’t it be more leaky if it were aerosolized (sp?) or a light powder? Don’t know the science but again it would be less likely in those forms as assassin weapon.
I’m not sure I buy the theory that Po salts would limit it’s ability to creep out of containers, a Po salt crystal would be susceptible to alpha particle/aggregate recoil I think. I’ll have to read up on it, if there are any references. The article I linked a few days ago did suggest that keeping alpha emitters in solution would be a way to limit leakage problems:
http://www.ornl.gov/~webworks/cppr/y2005/rpt/122446.pdf
That article also did say that working with powders causes a real problem in containing alpha emitters, thus recommended liquids.
Off topic, but indicative of possible increased terrorist operations: Anyone see the story on the guy busted at the trucking school? He caused suspicion when he said he didn’t want to learn how to back up the truck. Kind of like the guy who said he didn’t want to learn how to land the plane, just fly it.
http://news.bostonherald.com/localRegional/view.bg?articleid=171422
Just a thought – if the output is 2% a day in urine then the output in sweat would be miniscule wouldn’t it? The sweat theory of spread doesn’t seem to account for all of this spreading
“I’m not sure I buy the theory that Po salts would limit it’s ability to creep out of containers, a Po salt crystal would be susceptible to alpha particle/aggregate recoil I think”
Yes but much less so and in any case, such recoil isn’t as big of a problem as you make it seem. It isn’t like all the polonium is going to suddenly jump out of the container. In a salt, the alpa particle is more likely to hit an atom of chlorine than an atom of polonium since there are more of them. As far as I know, recoil isn’t a proble with salts of polonium, only with the pure metal. If you had pure polonium, heated it up to about 130F, and let it sit for two and a half days, you would lose about half of it. Most would be redeposited in the area directly around the polonium as polonium is heavier than lead. Or in a container, most would be redeposited on the sides of the container. Also, as time goes by and the polonium decays, you end up with less polonium and more lead being shot off. It is kind of like a billiard combination shot. In a salt, most of the atoms are chlorine or some other element. In other words, it acts to spread the polonium out. Now dissolve that salt in a solution, and the recoil problem pretty much goes away completely.
It is difficuly to keep polonium metal contained but an assassin wouldn’t be dealing with the pure metal. Just like with thallium. An assassin would use thallium sulfide, not the pure metal.
“Just a thought – if the output is 2% a day in urine then the output in sweat would be miniscule wouldn’t it? The sweat theory of spread doesn’t seem to account for all of this spreading”
If ingested, 50% is eliminated immediately in feces. The remaining 50% is absorbed and elimated more slowly. The thing is we aren’t being told the level of contamination and we are able to detect polonium at very low concentrations (are able to tell the difference between normal background levels in air samples and evidence of nuclear activities involving polonium) and I am talking about counting atoms of the stuff.
The polonium in the urine of a cigarette smoker would be detected.
But what bothers me isn’t the “body fluid” contamination, it is the contamination apparently in the form of particles that the Germans have mentioned that would be inconsistant with “recoil” evaporation, body fluid traces, etc. Recoil would tend to leave a deposit consistant with vapor deposition. It would not form particles.
Interesting – so the fact that Kovtun was a chain smoker per der Spiegel would in fact cause higher levels of PO to be picked up in tests than that of a normal person who didn’t smoke or smoked only a little. Would this smoking also contaminate a room with PO that would then be picked up suggesting PO contamination – presumably there is a base line amount for “smoking rooms” vs. non smoking rooms. The Germans did say that the PO in the kids and wife were equal to those of a heavy smoker.