Dec 13 2006
Some Litvinenko Thoughts
The news on Litvinenko’s death and the Polonium-210 trail has succumbed to the moder Ripper news, so obviously something very quiet is being done behind the scenes or the trail is growing cold. I think it is the former because this quick response by the Germans in response to some possible evidence that Kovtun made a phone call from Berlin during his period in Germany between Moscow and his trip to meet Lugovoi and Litvinenko in London.
I meant to note I find the constantly shifting stories by Lugovoi and Kovtun to be a clear sign they new full well they have been in contact with radiactive material. The tanning salon excuse is just pathetic. I also find their pointing to Oct 16th as possible contamination point telling as well. They knew that their illnesses were due to Polonium 210, but they only realized their problem after Litvinenko fell ill and died. Up until they could not hide the truth anymore (i.e., they needed medical attention) they tried to divert suspicion using one lame excuse after another. But they knew it was Polonium 210.
Add this the fact Berezovsky’s mouthpiece Goldfarb went out of his way to dismiss any idea that Lugovoi and Kovtun could have been involved in the assassination effort and one can see he too was trying to divert attention from them as culprits in Litvinenko’s death. When in reality they represented the best lead to Putin and Russia as part of an assassination effort. Why would Berezovsky/Goldfarb go out of there way to publically vouch for the best supporting evidence of a Russian assassination plot to ever surface? Diversion. Only when it became clearly obvious that Lugovoi was ill did Goldfarb go silent again.
Finally, the delay in questioning Lugovoi could easily be seen as negotiations for a plea agreement. Lugovoi has been giving the public perception he is working for investigators on this case, and investigators are not out denying anything. We still have this mysterious fourth contaminated hotel out there, and we have police backing away from the poisoned tea cup theory. I would not be surprised if within a few days we see some sweeping actions by authorites. Then again, I would not be surprised to see nothing new happening for days on end as well. My latest musings for all to rip apart at their leisure!
I of course meant to say, that Po had been present by itself, and not in someone’s bodily fluids only, at the Milennium hotel.
The international community is very concerned with the goings-on in Russia these days, in particular the grab for oil. Yukos, Lukoil and now Shell.
Many murders connected to Lukoil and Yukos. And Sasha delivered a dossier to the ex head of Yukos in Israel (Nevzlin) shortly before his murder.
Billions of dollars involved the oil grab. Billions at stake. And Sasha was in the middle of it.
Was Sasha related to Vladimir S. Litvinenko on the Russian Energy Commission?
Woah – Hold the fort – WTF is up with this?
http://www.sptimesrussia.com/story/11287
Very interesting report, Enlightened. Even a news story that’s 3 years old provides details about the ongoing rancorous nature of the dissidents’ relationship with Russia.
I have not had time to read through all the posts on this thread today, so if my link to this article is redundant then please forgive me. Some things in this are new but most is what many have covered on this site. Just thought it might be of some interest. Enlightened, that is one heck (yeah that’s right…heck) of a find, concerning the article you linked to. http://www.counterterrorismblog.org/
M – What stands out for me is –
Litvinenko thwarted a planned assassination of Putin. He was a fierce critic of Putin but he distanced himself from that type of crime.
And Berezovsky turned in alleged bomb planners –
Either these guys were not criminals and report crimes to authorities, or they are criminals and just report certain crimes, or they are criminals that are reporting bogus crimes to cover up their own crimes.
Did he P/O the rogue agents for turning them in? Was his assassination revenge for not helping earlier?
Who were the two Russian nationals he turned in? Scotland Yard must have that incident on file – Where are they now? Do alleged Russian assassins just wander around the UK at will?
I have boiled this puzzle down to just two scenarios, and I’m more or less 40-40 on which one best fits the facts, with 20% in reserve for other possibilities.
I start with one key assumption to filter out the various theories: Was there incompetence involved, or was this some sort of set-up? I don’t believe it was a set-up. There is no way it could be a smuggling operation and involve some sort of set-up, because the smugglers would want to keep this whole thing quiet. If there were some sort of assassination set-up, it seems unusually complicated and convoluted, with an awful lot of people involved, not to mention a substance that is very hard to control. If people were being “marked,” could the person engaged in the set-up know it could or would be traced?
So I am taking as a starting point an act of serious incompetence, or (if you prefer) ignorance about the substance at hand. It’s understandable: Who in the world has experience with polonium? In terms of the knowledge of those who handled the substance, you could portray polonium as being dangerous to ingest but not to handle and still be within shooting range of the truth. (Remember that polonium was depicted by one ‘expert’ as being safe if stored in a knotted baggie.) PO is also not detected by geiger counters and the like and so would not be of concern in terms of passing through customs. However, a suitable container that would not draw suspicion could be a problem, so the transporter did not use an adequate container, which led to the leak(s).
This incompetence or ignorance would apply equally to assassins or smugglers. So my two scenarios are, simply, a Putin-directed hit, or a Berezovsky-managed smuggling ring.
(1) Why assassination? Because, again with the benefit of hindsight, the assassin may have thought that all he had to do is spike Litvinenko’s drink a time or two and then vanish, presumably undetected. Yes the death would be mysterious and yes people would suspect Putin, but suspicion would remain at the level of speculation. Putin not only has his assassination law in place now, but also he seems particularly emboldened by recent events, most notably the aftermath of our very own midterm election. He is in bed with Iran, he is taking over others’ oil and gas operations, and he is assassinating his enemies. So Lugovoi and / or Kovtun carry out the assignment, and lo and behold, there is a major problem. But the job is done and they’re safely back in Russia, with no chance of extradition, so the ruble (and the investigation) stops here. And yes they’re exposed, but who would have known, leading us back to incompetence. Problem: As Litbez points out, Litvinenko was more or less crazy and probably not worthy of a straightforward hit, although perhaps useful as a message.
(2) Why smuggling? Because of all of the reasons provided in these comment sections over the course of the past ten days. There just flat out seems to be too much of the stuff around to have been a hit. The press has had a hayday with how extremely lethal this stuff is, and I have to think that the transporter(s) would at least have known that. Is it really a coincidence that polonium is used in nuclear triggers; that Litvinenko was sympathetic to the Chechnens; that he converted to Islam shortly before his death; and that the UK is all aflutter about a dirty bomb?
Beyond that, the list of Crosspatch can be expanded to include other, probably less likely scenarios, but I think they are far less likely than these two. One possibility that could fit is a Russian “sting,” that is, the Russians knew of the polonium smuggling, which they wanted to prevent, and therefore killed Litvinenko as a warning. The polonium transport would not have occurred, one smuggler is dead, and the two undercover agents are safely and successfully back in Russia.
Both major theories have their problems but I don’t see that either can be eliminated. Have I forgotten something, am I leaving some key piece of evidence out?
Litbez what do you think?
WoG – I wonder who Major P is?
Besides being a FSB hitman in the UK that is –
Curiouser and Curiouser.
Enlightened,
“Curiouser and Curiouser.”
Boy, you got that right. The way the story is written is strange as well. What are the odds that three of the five main players that we are talking about today, show up in an article three years ago? Again, good find, your google skills are at the level of Jedi.
WoG – Not only are 3 of the 5 players involved in a similar incident 3 years ago – the victims are reversed and the hit is successful. Again Chechnya rears it’s head. And 2 mysterious Russian nationals, for or current FSB. Wouldn’t it be interesting if one of the two from 2003 was say – Sokolenko? He seems to have known Sasha before he didn’t know him….
Enlightened–fantastic find!
That makes sense, doesn’t it? That the Russians would try to set up Berezovsky and Litvinenko and that both of these targets would be smart enough not to fall for it.
I think the reports of Kovtun and Lugovoy’s contamination, as inconsistent as they are, are McGuffins. If they are not contaminated–and we have no proof they are–and if Scaramella (who was originaly believed to have been is not) we have only one person who was poisoned.
Maybe the Russians are holding Kovtun and Lugovoy in that hospital so no one can see their condition but letting them phone out to spread disinfo which cannot be resolved?
WOT, I do not know how cound the counter terrorism info is (I see Larry Johnson is one of their sources). Nevertheless, the news accounts they refer to of PO assassinations is also very interesting.
“Wouldn’t it be interesting if one of the two from 2003 was say – Sokolenko?”
Yes it would!
Here is some good background on polonium from the good folks at Counterterrorism Blog:
http://counterterrorismblog.org/
Wow – that article in the St. Petersburg Times is really something – I am not sure what to make of it but all the major players are there except Lugovoy and Kovton
Clarice
“WOT”
War on Terror?” (heh!)
The Counter terror blog entry has something for both the assassins and the smugglers. As I said, I don’t think there is anything profound in it, but when we are in the waters we are in here, every little bit helps, and sometimes links lead to links that link the links of a chain of thought.
Enlightened, it is an amazing find. I’ve been trying to find more from that date, especially the Sunday Times article it references — would be from Sunday, Oct. 19, 2003 I think. I’m slow today, reading online in between trying to bake batches of Christmas cookies. Yow.
Must be a PC reaction to calling you WOG.
This is very strange, but the two “Russian Nationals” from the St. Petersburg Times could be the very same Lugovoi and Kovtun. The ages, I believe, are perfect, since these two are 43 and 40, and with birthdays being what they are this could fit. Note though that they both could have been working under cover, which would explain why they were never detained or tried.
Could the whole PO story be a giant sting, and Litvinenko did in fact die accidentally? Maybe his deathbed comments were just made to keep his cover intact?
Interesting, Lugovoy has given yet another interview by telephone to Süddeutschen Zeitung in which he says that he and Kowton do not see each other but they are in contact by phone – he claims not to know where Kowton is being hospitalized. He also said it was all the same to him whether Litvinenko was a traitor or not so long as Litvinenko made business deals for him that made him money.
The original Times story is in subscription archives, but I found this copy online:
http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:99j0uBOGSD0J:www.ladlass.com/intel/archives/006373.html+%22UK+plot+to+kill+President+Putin%22&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=1&ie=UTF-8
October 18, 2003
UK plot to kill President Putin
Times Online – Sunday Times