Dec 15 2006
Lugovoi Definitely Berezovsky Ally
I was going to add this in a long line of comments to answer someone’s question, and decided to make a post for everyone to find. Lugovoi was definitely an ally of Berezovsky’s – so the assassination theory seems a little more stretched than it was before. And it explains why Goldfarb first tried to divert suspicion from Lugovoi. Now that Lugovoi is a participating witness (prossibly under a plea agreement) Berezvosky’s mouth piece is having to change tactics. Looks like everyman is now out for themselves in a battle that could put someone away for life. I am wondering more and more whether the Litvinenko incident and the spat of killings is really the preparation for some kind of coup d’etat in Russia.
Terrorists did not know prior to now that PO 210 would work in dirty bombs. They have been trying to procure enriched uranium or plutonium to do the job – but have not figured out how to make it work. If they had – we would know about it.
I cannot find a single link to a PO 210 theft, black market deal, missing PO 210 – anything prior to this incident.
That’s the worst thing about this- now the terrorists are inspired. For years they could not figure out how to make a dirty bomb work – and now they know.
Quote: “I’ve shifted from 90-10 smuggling to about 70-30 smuggling.”
The one thing you can say for sure is that this is, without doubt, the most damaging PR/media/world opinion event against Russia and Putin since the boycott of the Olympic Games in 1980.
Given Russia’s enemies, did that happen fortuitously or was it helped?
That isn’t exactly true, Enlightened. The recent case where a man was convicted in the UK is an example. His work was centered on americium but his research papers he created before embarking on the project included mention of many isotopes. The government of the UK has classified many of those documents because they claim that having them available to the public would be too dangerous.
They don’t need plutonium or uranium. Cesium would work just as well and is much easier to obtain. They know that already. Heck, certain waste from nuclear medicine would work too.
There’s a funny story going around in certain circles that Osama tried to buy some enriched uranium and thought he had purchased two canisters of it. Turns out he blew his money on medical waste.
They have been trying for a long time to obtain it. The Chechens have already used such a bomb. Trouble with polonium is that you don’t need to put it in a bomb. Putting it into a dirty bomb might make it less effective.
I would be more worried about these idiots getting polonium to use to make a crude nuke or for mass poisoning than I would worry about its use in a dirty bomb.
This is what I mean about the buyer of such expensive material needing to know EXACTLY what he is purchasing. And why I do not think prior to this incident terrorists could not figure out if a dirty bomb would work. Afterall how the heck do you TEST it? On people and it doesn’t work? So you just spent $25-50 million, plus whatever other supplies you need – and the damn thing shoots sugar crystals all over everyone? How do you KNOW you got what you paid for? And in this case – the buyer paid a hell of a lot for something now rotting in Litvinenko’s body.
“While al-Fadl reports that al Qaeda believed the material to be HEU when it was seeking to make the purchase, it appears that the suppliers were running a scam, and the material was not usable in nuclear weapons. Similarly, it appears that al Qaeda has been scammed on several other occasions in attempts to acquire what it thought was weapons-usable nuclear material.”
http://www.nti.org/e_research/cnwm/threat/demand.asp
From the same link above – one incident involving PO, and it was a RUSSIAN incident…..in 1999. Note the container – glass capsule, in metal cannister with lead foil. CLEARLY that was not the transport vessel for this PO.
Abstract:
Customs agents in Southern Kazakhstan Oblast arrested a Russian military officer, Captain Aleksey Konkov, as he tried to cross into Uzbekistan from Kazakhstan with radioactive material, Interfax reported on 22 July 1999.[1] When searched, Konkov was found to be carrying a glass capsule with the label ‘RA 23-54’ and a metal canister covered with lead foil. During his interrogation, Konkov said that the canister contained a radioactive mixture of polonium and beryllium used in nuclear power engineering. Konkov, who works at the Baikonur cosmodrome, admitted that he had stolen the material from that facility, which is leased and operated by Russia. The material is likely used in nuclear power sources for satellites launched from the cosmodrome. Konkov said that he planned to market the material in Uzbekistan, although the report does not specify whether he had identified a purchaser. Examination of the material by Kazakhstani officials revealed that it was emitting 1896 microroentgen/hour, which exceeds the allowed level by 56 times. According to customs officials, Konkov tried to evade detection by using a ‘devious route’ to cross over the border, although it does not give details. The report does not specify why Konkov attracted the attention of customs officials and does not indicate whether radiation monitors were used to detect the material he was carrying or his suspicious actions led to a physical search which uncovered the material.
[1] AP, 23 July 1999; in ‘Russian Officer Arrested Trying to Smuggle Radioactive Substance,’ Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe.
Bereszovsky used the people he could trust. They might not be proficient in radioactive materials but they wouldn’t betray him. He, smart person that he is, surrounded himself with these type of people. And I doubt if there was an radioactive expert among them.
An accident with a polonium leak makes a whole lot more sense than an assassination theory that involves all kinds of convoluted occurances that could have happened or might have happened or who would be involved to be successful. An assassin would not carry this much polonium around with him on the off chance an opportunity would arise wherein he could kill Litvinenko on the fly.
If Putin is discounted as the assassin then who could it have been? What would be the motive? Also as has been pointed out time after time no one would spend this much money on this hit. If Putin is not involved then there is no state polonium source.
This was a insignificant blowhard who talked too much but people aren’t killed for being blabbermouths. No one listened to him anyway. Everything he said was discounted. The only reason he did not talk in the hospital is because he was protecting his friends and associates. He told the authorities as little as possible and probably feigned unconsiousness when he could not tell the truth. Besides he from all reports from people involved with him was an extremely suspicious person and it is not easy to hoodwink a suspicious person who is on guard at all times.
With this much polonium scattered all over Europe the only conclusion one could come to is a leaky container and a leaky container points to an accident not murder. The only people who cared that this guy was murdered was his family and evidently only some of his friends.
If the Russian government is involved in any form or fashion I would expect a little more class. This is a bumbling, fumbling comedy of errors that points to the fact that these people did not know they were contaminated and did not know the amount of polonium that could kill you. In fact knew nothing about polonium period. And are covering their tracks with dumb, unbelievable stories and mysterious phone calls and no public appearances. The reason Russia might be “protecting” these two guys is because they have been poisoned and will die anyway. Besides Russia likes to obstructive whenever possible and are co-operative only when it suits them.
Enlightened it is an issue, of course, and as Crosspatch mentioned AQ got burned once already. (I have heard that from multiple reliable sources.) But that doesn’t mean they don’t want or need Polonium-210 to trigger a nuclear device. No one said it would be easy.
And they don’t need money either: “I’ll trade you two suitcase nukes for a gram of polonium.” The oldest form of trade known to man.
“Given Russia’s enemies, did that happen fortuitously or was it helped?”
copydude, as you already know — it was undoubtedly “helped.” But both sides — and there are probably more than the Kremlin and Berezovsky camps at play — are waging massive PR extravaganzas here. The British press ran headstrong and headlong after Lord Bell’s brightly-colored bird as soon as it was released, though, so Berezovsky’s bunch defined the story first. Once that happens, it is difficult to reshape public opinion. But then, as I said, you know that.
Gotta Know
I don’t know why Litvinenko met with Scaramella. Scaramella testified against him in a nuclear smuggling case a few years before. But they seem to be associates of some kind.
My theory is the polonium came from Iran. This is one of the places that polonium is not monitored and evidently can’t be traced. I say this because Iran is alway spouting off and support terrorists worldwide. England might have been the place where all the players gathered and as we know Bereszovsky and Zakayev cannot leave the country.
I still believe it was a smuggling accident or that Litvinenko was killed with the stuff by someone he was trying to blackmail or to cover up for contamination of others.
I have said pretty much all I can say at this point until new information comes out and there hasn’t been any lately. I had expected something from Scotland Yard by today but haven’t heard anything.
You have to remember that this really could be anything. Maybe Litvinenko really was starting to run out of money and carried some of what little he had left around with him to look flashy. Maybe he was reaching the end of his rope financially. People can do strange things in those situations.
Boris could have sacrificed him in order to do damage to Putin.
He could have been killed by someone he was blackmailing.
He could have been killed to provide cover for polonium contamination.
See, here’s the thing … we know Litvinenko was sick. If there were others involved in a smuggling ring, say in Armeina or Germany or Russia … maybe they got sick too and we never heard about it. It might have started to dawn on Lugovoi that maybe they were in danger of getting sick and that maybe he had contaminated his family. Lugovoi seems more of a family man that Kovtun, who basically abandoned his.
Litvinenko’s poisoning could have been a long time coming and building up over time. He is to have reported to have mentioned at the sushi bar in a meeting around October 16th that he didn’t feel much like eating because he had been sick over the past few days (but he reportedly ate anyway).
The UK now has another high-profile case … the Suffolk Ripper … that is possibly causing a drain of resources at the moment away from this case.
Barbara, I think that raises as many questions as it solves. You could be right, but why would it go through the UK? I don’t believe that London was the intended target: Why would Litvinenko or Borozovsky contaminate their residences? Why not deliver the P-210 directly from Iran to its final destination?
It could be that same old Incompetence that seems to have been at play in spades.
All,
I picture the guys at Scotland Yard sitting around a blackboard with a diagram and handwritten bullet points labeled “What We Know.”
I thnk we need a blackboard. As I posted earlier in yesterday’s AJ posting:
“May I make a suggestion? We have all given this story a lot of thought, and I think it is to our credit that we have a good amount of “smugglers,†“assassins,†and agnostics. (I am a newfound agnostic after having been a smuggler.)
What we need–and what I think we can accomplish–is a summary of the case to date, focusing on what we know with certitude, or at least near certainty. As an example, I think we can all agree that Lugovoi and Kovtun are involved in this, one way or another. In addition to the circumstantial evidence, their comments have not been straightforward, suggesting that they are somehow implicated in the crime(s).
As we go forward we can cross-check what we know and add to the case.
I think it’s very healthy that we have so many representatives from both camps. That way we can cross-check each other and sound out whether theoretical points can become “facts.â€
This could take a bit of work but I am sure that we would have many eager contributors. I do not have any firm idea as to the format but suggest keeping it simple–AJ maybe you could start a “Facts†thread that we could keep updating and moving forward on a day by day basis.
What do you think?”
Would there be an interest for something like this? AJ could be judge, jury, and executioner as to what constitutes what we “know.” I am happy to help but I do think this should be a group effort.
The reason Russia might be “protecting†these two guys is because they have been poisoned and will die anyway.
The Russians are probably not so worried about Litvinenko as they are about polonium itself. They might be more interested in plugging any leaks in their nuclear industry and rolling up a smuggling ring. If you are going to try to roll up a smuggling ring, it is probably better to look like you aren’t going after that angle.
If the Russian government didn’t provide the polonium, then they are going to want to know where it came from and where it was going because the people involved are connected to a Chechen supporter.
It would not do the Russian government any good to attempt to sit on this because nothing about this has benefited that government so far. Even if the government didn’t do it, it has highlighted Putin’s failure to maintain law and order and has spotlighted the large number of dead Russians that keep showing up. It would serve Putin better to use this event to start cleaning house. Helping get to the bottom of this would be a benefit to him.
I dont tihnk the polonium came from Iran – I rember that Turkey was doing radiation checks which suggests there was a suspicion that it came from Ukraine. There are regular flights from southern Ukraine (crimea) to Istanbul.
Copydude,
“Given Russia’s enemies, did that happen fortuitously or was it helped?â€
Concentration of figures like Scaramella in one place and amount of radiactive press suggest Nigerian Yellow Cake analogy. I forgot who suggested it here but it looks more and more plausible.
“They might be more interested in plugging any leaks in their nuclear industry and rolling up a smuggling ring.”
Crosspatch I agree with this, the silver lining is that no government benefits from this…
…unless Russia were in bed with the bad guys, ie, the polonium came from Russia, with Putin’s blessing, on its way to a Russian proxy partner. This is the scariest scenario of all. And given the kid glove treatment of Lugovoi and Kovtun, with no extradition and a seemingly comfortable sanctuary, not to mention repeated jabs at Litvinenko, I don’t think we can rule it out. In this case Russia would have every reason to allow the assassination rumors to continue.
Likbez, sure — especially the Italian connection. But if that is the case, who or what does Scaramella work for?
“Concentration of figures like Scaramella in one place and amount of radiactive press suggest Nigerian Yellow Cake analogy. I forgot who suggested it here but it looks more and more plausible.”
Likbez you lost me…
I find this recent news interesting:
Seems Goldfarb wants to throw Kovtun under the bus. It would fit since Kovtun would not be one of Boris’ men, but a friend of Lukovoi’s that was being brought in and shown the ropes of the business. No way he would throw Lugovoi under the bus, Logovoi knows too much.
But Goldfarb seems to forget about the trip on the 25th that Kovtun didn’t attend. Logovoi was contaminated on that trip. Looks to me like there are two sets of prints on that weapon.
Gotta Know ,
What do you mean by “no government benefits from this”? History teaches us otherwise.