Dec 17 2006
Ridiculous Assassination Theory
The assissination theories are really getting strained and bizarre with the latest ‘speculation’ from Yuri Shvets. His theory is pretty lame with lots and lots of wholes in it:
Yuri Shvets, an ex-spy based in the United States, said Mr Litvinenko, who died in a London hospital on 23 November from poisoning by Polonium-210, had been employed by a British company to provide information on five potential Russian clients before they committed to investment. He had helped the former KGB man with information on one of the five.
In an interview with the BBC, Mr Shvets said the report had led to the British company pulling out of a deal, losing the Russian figure potential earnings of “dozens of millions of dollars”. Neither the Russian nor the British company was named, but asked whether the report had lead to Mr Litvinenko’s death, he replied: “I can’t be 100 per cent sure, but I am pretty sure.”
Actually I am sure this is a ridiculous theory. This mystery Russian may have lost a ‘potential business opportunity worth dozens of millions. Let’s say it was $48 million dollars in potential business (4 dozens). The value of the Polonium-210 which Litvinenko ingested alone was $25-50 million. The Polonium-210 trail spread across Russia, London and Germany could easily be the same amount. And the price to pay the smugglers and the assassin would not be cheap. But let’s just use the $25 million dollar number and do some math.
So this guy loses $48 million in business, which may have translated to $5 million in profit after all the costs are accounted for. So what kind of businessman would spend $25 million in profit to pay Litvinenko back for helping him lose $5 million??
The problem with this theory is the guy is throwing away a material that would recoup his losses 5 times over to kill one guy, who could be taken out for a couple grand if you could find a desparate drug addict or street thug. This is the gold brick problem with these lame assassination theories. Who would use a gold brick to kill someone?
Yuri Shvets just wants more than his 15 minutes of fame and is feeding the media’s conspiracy theorists dreams.
Addendum: Let me extend my comments on this before I go in and read the comments people have posted. This story relies on a timeline that is just plain unrealistic. Because of a report supposedly submitted on Sept 21st we find, 3.5 weeks later, Polonium-210 successfully being smuggled into London (this is the date of the Knightsbridge hotel contamination and the earliest reported visit of Lugovoi and Kovtun to see Litvinenko). Now it is not possible to, on a lark of vengeance, go out and get large quantities of Polonium-210. But even if you had iPolonium-210 sitting around (remember the half life situation) then it is not reasonable to assume you could develop a sophisticated smuggling effort, involving many people, to get the material into London in 3 short weeks. And that doesn’t even include developing a way to deliver the poison. Journalists, for some reason or another, have suspended all inquisitiveness on this matter.
Now we have an unreasonable time frame on top of the ridiculous issues a potential bussiness opportunity lost verses the cost to get Polonium-210 for revenge. But let’s not beating this dead horse here. As I have been contemplating this matter it is clear we the evidence to date is not only around a smuggling effort, but a large one. First off we have these three hotels contaminated in multiple rooms on three different dates with Lugovoi coming into London and meeting Litvinenko. We all know that even the amount needed to kill Litvinenko was a thousands of a gram so why three trips? One trip and you can bring in a gram on one person? If you can hide a thousandths of a gram you can hide a gram of this stuff. So multiple trips are not necessary, especiall after the material is in on Oct 16th.
Why multiple rooms at each hotel? Most people do not understand that it takes special equipment to divide material up into thousandths of a gram. So we have trail of Polonium 210 that just doesn’t fit the assassination concept because the dosage could be brought into one place on one trip, because of its size alone.
And why hotels? If the material was destined for the UK why not rent some flat or something and do whatever was being done in these hotel rooms in much more private conditions, without traces due to travel and hotel records? Combining the multiple rooms and keeping in mind the amounts of material that could be worked on in a hotel room setting it seems to me we are dealing with mulitple grams of the material – not thousandths of a gram. I can see people dealing in grams and half and quarter grams in a hotel setting. Once you get below a quarter gram you don’t need multiple people to move the material around.
So I see much larger amounts coming in on each of the dates we are dealing with in these hotel contaminations. This starting amount is divided up in each room and given to a person to take it on its next leg of its travels. With 4-5 rooms per hotel being contaminated that means 3-4 points of departure (assuming one room is Lugovoi’s and hosts the incoming material). What worries me is where could these f3-4 destinations be. Recall that the hotel makes sense as a way-point for people transitting in and out of the UK. Otherwise one would think to use a different location than a hotel.
The other thing to remember is, if Lugovoi did coordinate the movmement and distribution of this material (a common theme in both scenarios), it is doubtful he himself would move the material across the borders and that planes would be used. It would be better to use trains and ships than planes given the level of security on airlines. The Chunnel and Ferries are really nice because people take their cars with them into the UK from mainland Europe.
Recalling that a gram of this material is like a few sugar packs, it is clear there is no reason to use multiple carriers unless distribution to many points is implied as part of this entire effort. The interesting question is whether this was in liquid, salt or solid form. The first two forms may be easier to transport, but if you want to move grams the volumes become quite large. I would assume an increase of 10-100 to 1 for the salt or liquid forms. This may be why there are so many people involved and so many sites. This too really flies against the assassination theory where Litvinenko’s deadly dose of thousandths of a gram translates into only 10ths of a gram in these forms. Something easily smuggled by one person on one trip and not something someone would divide up.
Gotta Know:
Your maid theory is full of wholes – trust me. So instead of me telling you how it is full of wholes tell me how this theory actually works.
What form is the Polonium-210 in?
What did the maid do to move the material?
Why is it only in certain rooms and not all the rooms (remember the 3 week span from contamination to death and investigation)?
Why aren’t the maids contaminated?
Why aren’t other areas of the hotel contaminated?
I have a dozen more gates for you to meet to prove your theory. I read your theory earlier. Your theory would have a totally different contamination trail. For one thing, all the rooms in question are supposedly linked to Russians visiting at the same time and maybe paid for as a group. For warned.
Marip0sa,
You missed it again (and honestly I don’t care if you get it). The silence to be paid is for all those who monitor and track the Polonium-210 production and who must be silent about missing amounts. It has nothing to do with Lugovoi. And no – you don’t have a lot of time to take small amounts because it is not produced constantly (for obvious reasons).
Mariposa,
One thing might help you out is if you stop reading journaliasts as if they have the first bloody clue about nuclear chemistry. For example, your comment that someone wrote they almost didn’t find the Polonium-210 it is ridiculous and naive. Whether the UK lab found it or someone else did, when radiation poisoning is involved the source will be found. And they puzzles ovwer it for one day?
Please stop! That is just silly. A puzzle takes weeks and months. Not one day. They figured it out before he died. By definition that did not take long at all.
Mariposa,
Yes we do know the exact date. Follow the link.
Lizarde1,
You only tried to explain one hotel. And Lugovoi’s family was all in 441 (wife and son, plenty of room).
AJ have you given any thought as to who would have been behind this, and what their purpose might be?
Gotta Know
Lugovoi is a very rich man. He brought his wife and children to London for the game. I doubt all of them would he holed up in one room in the hotel. He either got a suite of several rooms or consecutive rooms. All the hotels I have stayed at have connecting doors to another room on each side. If this is the case then he would have tracked polonium throughout these rooms. He evidently did not know he was tracking the stuff.
I don’t think Lugovoi would work for the Chechens either. But he would work for Bereszovsky. If Bereszovsky by some chance (dirty bombs set off by Chechens in Russia for instance) came into power there would be a high office for Lugovoi. He was Bereszovsky’s man. He was known to be Bereszovsky’s man while both were in Russia and he was jailed for aout a year for being his man. Also Bereszovsky lent him the money to start his security business in Russia.
AJ I thought Lugovoi brought THREE kids to London – only one was introduced to Litvinenko maybe – I could be wrong though
Great post Barbara, you did a lot of work along the lines of what I thought was needed at this stage.
A few points from your post:
“Lugovoi and Kovtun were the trackers. What were they doing with it?” –I’m not sure they both were tracking it, has that been established?
“Livtinenko met with Lugovoi and Kovtun for tea at the Millenium bar at 10:00. ” Has this been established? I thought Lug and Kov denied that there was a morning meeting.
“Where was he between 12:00 and 3:00? I have asked this question many times and no one seems to want to answer or maybe does not know. Maybe it does not fit with any theory. But he had to have become contaminated and poisoned during this time frame.” –Why would he not have been meeting with Lug and Kov in one of their hotel rooms? OR maybe just hanging out at Starbucks waiting for his 3:00 meeting? I’m not sure this is a big problem or issue either way.
“Litvinenko met Lugovoi and Kovtun at Millenium Bar at 4:30. Why?
He stayed only 20 minutes, met Lugovoi’s son but drank nothing.” –Do we know he drank nothing?
“So the facts are that Litvinenko was not found to be contaminated until the sushi bar at 3:00.” –How do we know that?
“The authorities seem to be concentrating on Lugovoi and Kovtun and no one else. 5. Litvinenko was suspicious of everyone and was on guard at all times.” –I think this is speculation.
There are no nice guys in this thing–Agreed!!
“Marip0sa,
You missed it again (and honestly I don’t care if you get it). ”
AJ
I’m sorry to have bothered you, then.
Barbara,
Your theory that “this is just a can with rattle snakes” is the most logical of the proposed but there is one implication of this theory. Being a rattle snake Litvinenko has no trust on any side and he was probably monitored closely by British authorities and may be not only by British authorities. That means that several agencies should know a lot about his movements, contacts, etc.
The same is even more true for Berezovsky. After Klebnikov’s book and death he has a tattoo of rattle snake on his forehead. That means that despite his wealth he hardly can be an independent player. He needs to behave as Russia presses for his extradition.
Your rattle snake theory is applicable to Kovtun and Lugovoy too. Kovtun deserted Red Army ands asked for political asylum in Germany. So he was never trusted by either Germans or Russians. Lugovoy served a prison sentence for botched attempt to free one of Berezovsky friends. It looks that like Litvinenko they were just a patsies (to remember famous “I’m just a patsy” line from Lee Harvey Oswald storyline).
“There is no marriage of a reasonable theory and a silly one. If the Russian was involved in smuggling he would not risk exposing it for the same reason he would not throw away $25 million in Polonium-210.”
True, unless they had good reason to believe Lit had already blown their smuggling ring, in which case their best hope would be to lay the blame on him in some way. That would make it a murder rather than an assassination, and it would be more of a spur of a moment thing. Hard to believe, it is true. And, of course, if that’s the case the authorities would know, because Lit would have talked, and if so, they’re not telling.
The problem is, that when there are such gaping holes of info that we don’t have, and it seems that there’s a cover-up going on in more ways than one, it really is hard to understand what actually happened.
The only evidence for murder/assassination that I can see is that accidents rarely happen and one man was killed 100 times over.
DonaldX,
“Which means that its more than likely that this particular Litvinenko theory, with Mangold as its reporter, is one which the security services would seem to have an interest in pushing. ”
That’s a very interesting observation. If so then resignahtion of MI5 chief might be connected with the story. I posted the link yesterday:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=422970&in_page_id=1770
It has nothing to do with her resignation.
As for the “ridiculous” assassination story, I’m afraid that is a matter of opinion.
Like enlightened, jerry and Mariposa, I think it stands up better than the smuggling ring version.
I am astonished at the level of vitriol on these threads and at the refusal to consider the contrary information.
Interesting that Goldfarb is still spreading disinformation. An interview with a Bulgarian news outlet:
That has been denied by the person that gave Scaramella the list. He says Litvinenko is not on that list at all and that the list had to do with members of the Mitrokhin Commission.
Also interesting to note is this part of the interview:
Again untrue. Kovtun was shown to be contaminated from Moscow to Germany but no contamination appears from Germany to London. On the other hand, Lugovoi’s flight was contaminated from Moscow to London. (But just about everything surrounding Lugovoi and Kovtun are contaminated … offices, homes, hotel rooms)
Interesting that Goldfarb is placed in the correct context:
http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=74187
Clarice,
With all due respect the assassination theory from Shvetz is absolutely ridiculous, as I pointed out above. No business man would respond to losing $5 million in profits by throwing away $25 million in contraband (and yes, that is how much it is worth). And no person can put together a smuggling and assassination plan (and yes, you need to smuggle the PO-210 into the UK) in 3 weeks. that kind of scenario is something I would expect in a real bad movie.
The fact is those who prefer the assassination theory get very personal when the theory gets shredded over and over again. I am shredding the theory, and cannot help how people take that personally. At the same time, I have to call them as I see them and there is a mountain of evidence against the assassination theory. From the shear amount of Polonium that is clearly evident to the value of that volume to the PR campaign by Goldfarb and on and on. While I appreciate everyone who stops by here, I have to let the science take me where it goes.
Mariposa,
It is not a bother as much as the fact people have no arguments that hold up to the facts and the science. I have posted at least five times that it is not the cost of the Polonium but the value. And without any evidence the Polonium-210 was free to those who brought it in, they say that made up theory trumps all known facts. Well, you should understand when people throw made up scenarios out there to counter a well established fact (like the value) it should be obvious why I don\’t care after a while. I deal with what is known. I don\’t trust the media to report accurately. Why would I give more weight to made up stories??? It sort of bothers me people expect me to take something they made up over the reporting.
Sorry, to pick on you. It was not what you wrote, it was the umpteenth time someone wrote something similar. Now, if someone wants to show me evidence that material was free to these people we can all agree that is the case. Same thing with the maid service story. If true then all the rooms on the 4th floor would be contaminated by now – if the material was a solid. If the material was a liquid absorbed on a cloth then it would have a different pattern. It\’s not enough to think of some vaguely or superficially plausible alternative. It has to work with the details known.
LITD,
There is no reason to expose the smuggling ring by killing Litvinenko – which is the only reason the smuggling ring was exposed.
Bullets are cheap and don’t cause authorities to treat the entire incident as a nuclear incident (which it is).
AJStrata,
“From the shear amount of Polonium that is clearly evident to the value of that volume to the PR campaign by Goldfarb and on and on…”
While I agree with “volume to the PR campaign by Goldfarb” as an important supporting evidence I would like to note that statement “From the shear amount of Polonium” does not rests fully on facts before we know the results of autopsy.
Lizbez
I called no one a rattle snake. I would not dream of doing such a thing. That was a comparison saying no ex-KGB agent is lovable.
Gotta Know
Yes, both were contaminated. Lugovoi visited Bereszovsky in his office on either Oct 31 or Nov l from two sources in his office. Couch was contaminated where he sat. Kovtun contaminated Hamburg locations Oct 28, 29 and 30.
They met for tea at 10:00 at Millenium bar. Assasinologists think this is the time Litvinenko was poisoned.
He was not contaminated at newstand at 12:00but was at sushi bar at 3:00. Table was contaminated. It was thought for a long time that he was poisoned by Scaramella at the sushi bar.
Both Lugovoi and Kovtun said he didn’t drink anything. Litvinenko also said he didn’t drink anything.
The sushi was the first place actually found that we know of where Litvinenko was contaminated.
It is speculation that the authorities are only looking at Lugovoi and Kovtun, but nothing has been reported that they are looking at anyone else.
All this is speculation. All we can do is work with the facts as given. I have tried to look past all the spin to the underlaying facts. I am going by what was reported basically before the spin started., but I have discarded several clues that were debunked that the media had reported.