Dec 26 2006
Will Bush Make Adjustments On Illegal Immigration?
Now that the Congressional Republicans have made themselves impotent on national issues by sacrificing progress to grasp onto politically unsustainable positions, the President is going to do what it takes to get major problems addressed. And while no solution is perfect, progress is a winning strategy over holding issues hostage. The big issue for the right is going to be immigration. The Fence Only crowd are now completely out of the political equation, so the question is whether Bush stands by his long term position on immigration reform, which held the broadest support in the country, or whether he will make adjustments.
Counting on the support of the new Democratic majority in Congress, Democratic lawmakers and their Republican allies are working on measures that could place millions of illegal immigrants on a more direct path to citizenship than would a bill that the Senate passed in the spring.
The lawmakers are considering abandoning a requirement in the Senate bill that would compel several million illegal immigrants to leave the United States before becoming eligible to apply for citizenship.
The lawmakers are also considering denying financing for 700 miles of fencing along the border with Mexico, a law championed by Republicans that passed with significant Democratic support.
Details of the bill, which would be introduced early next year, are being drafted. The lawmakers, who hope for bipartisan support, will almost certainly face pressure to compromise on the issues from some Republicans and conservative Democrats.
Still, the proposals reflect significant shifts since the November elections, as well as critical support from the Homeland Security Department.
First off, the Democrats will not want to repeat the disasterous mistake of the Republicans and not address the issue. If they try to play for time like the House Reps did they will rappidly lose any momentum they have (and they don’t have a lot given they are seen as the lesser of two evils right now). So Bush has the stronger hand. No one is going to force him into a position he disagrees with deeply. That means strengthening the borders will still be a key element of the final solution. But so will the Guest Worker program.
Say a thankful good-bye to the excessively punitive approach lauded by the far right. There are punishments in the Bush approach. People need to pay up all back taxes. That takes years to do and really constricts a family’s spending money. Then there will be the move to put immigrant jobs onto the open market under full employment and tax laws. That will further reduce the take home pay of those in those jobs as money goes from salary to taxes and benefits. The lesson of economics is a harsh one that cannot be avoided. So there will be a huge financial penalty in the guest worker program that will last for 3-5 years as people make amends for all those years working illegally. The need to ship them across the border for a day or two and force them to lose their homes, etc is not accomplishing anything. But it does make it undesirable to partake in the program. And we want people to go willingly into the program so we don’t have to spend law enforcement resources on this effort – which only takes away from anti-terrorism efforts.
In addition, the fact that immigrant workers will not be allowed to use any of their time here illegally to apply for citizenship is another well tuned penalty. I am not so worried about the immigrant who becomes a citizen 10-15 years from now as I am about the lack of security on the border and the enormous illegal population inside this country that can ccover up an Al Qaeda force of hundreds. Our national priorities do not include excessive punitive measures against migrant workers which have no effect on the wages of American workers (who are not field hands by nature) but do effect the prices we face and we can export.
I predict Bush gets his package pretty much as is and the Dems will claim they took out the punitive, right wing aspects of the program. And Bush will be the one who saves the border enhancements. And the right will not be grateful one bit, setting the stage for the 2008 repeat losses. And the general populace will see this all as a good thing.
I suspect those who favor “zero tolerance” laws and enforcement have no idea of what effect it would have on the US economy.
Right now (according to some) “illegals” are filling jobs here that might have been shipped overseas. Additionally, they furnish “just in time” labor to go with just in time shipment of raw materials and finished goods.
It’s not a concept one can love…but it is the new reality.
“illegals†are filling jobs here that might have been shipped overseas.
I guess you saw the story that their were “thousands of Americans that won’t do this kind of work” lined up to get the jobs of the rounded up illegals at the meat packing plants.
This bill has no chance of passing. The American people are not for unconditional amnesty and citizenship. (it will be called something else, but it’ll still be a Pepsi)
If the bill does pass in some form, it will be seen as a victory of the dems in getting amnesty for the illegals and as a defeat for the Repubs because Pres Bush will have caved on the amnesty/citizenship issue.
I’m not saying that would be reality. Reality is Pres. Bush has been for the amnesty/citizenship, no fence side all along.
Passing the bill in any form will only make the situation worse. No single element of the immigration issue will improve as a result of it.
If being a Republican means arguing to the point of stalemate then nothing will accomplished. I am frankly not willing to watch the security of the country sacrificed at the feet of “pure conservative” thought. Border Security and Immigration need to be addressed if even on an incremental basis. Perhaps that is what polls are saying that Democrats can be more trusted on issues of Security.
Even a blind pig finds an acorn now and then and For Enforcement
burst out of his reverie to stumble on the real war America faces.
In another generation,as a result of Strata-type “successes” in immigration legislation, America will be too busy keeping its restive
unassimiliables in line to keep policing the world, so I advise
those infringed by the Empire currently to bide their time and remain
stalwart.
FE,
Don’t kid yourself. The bill will pass and the country will applaud it. Everyone knows a guest worker program is not amnesty. And those who cling to the idea just placing themselves in the ‘irrelevant’ column.
aj,
you continue in your delusions. i predicted over a year ago there would not be any immigration reform as outlined in the pathetic senate bill. you are about to get a dose of the reality folks, such as myself, have been getting for the last 40 years. there will be no back taxes, the border will be left completely open, blue collar wages will continue to be the same as 1985, illegal immigration will continue at two million or more per year. there will be absolutely no reform. as criminals get deported they will simply walk back across the border as they have for the last 40 years.
will there be a bill signing with all the pomp and glory that demagogues can summon. of course. will it actually accomplish anything? of course not. but people like you will trumpet its hollowness. after all we need our cheap house painters, nannies and maids……..
at least with a fence we had something we could throw the bad guys over and keep out the ongoing hordes that effectively hollow out mexico and central america guaranteeing their future poverty as their best and brightest come here. keep up the good work aj ! with over 20% of mexicans already working here why not shoot for 50% of all the able bodied. that way we can keep mexico destitute keeping us in a lifetime worth of produce pickers and dish washers. the added bonus is we keep the criminal cult that runs mexico in power. i mean what’s better than that!
Strata has property in Costa Rica to which he and his can retreat
when the powderkeg explodes?
When the PR agent writes the script you can be sure it’s fiction. Though in PR parlance it’s called “spin.”
Scaramella’s name shows up, because Litvenenko probably thought, “when he realized it wasn’t food poisoning at the sushi place; that “somebody tried to kill him.” That’s human nature!
He then blamed Sacarmella. Who went into hiding.
What’s really blown the lid off this thing is HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE CONTAMINATED.
And, for me? How the imam didn’t want Litvenenko’s casket in his mosque. Seems like the imam fears nuclear “bombardments.” And, he has no faith in science, either.
What a collection of tales.
Similar to Sgrena’s “abduction.” Which was done, according to her own story, “by friendlies.
And, the real common denominator? HOW ALL THESE PLAYERS HATE BUSH! And, how ALL have probably been streaming “spin” for years and years. Including the media involvement in the “Plame Affair.” About as phony as the rape charges against the Duke players.
While what most of us watch? Where’s the truth? Why hasn’t the truth gotten out of bed, yet?
And, what are we gonna do with the Italians. Old fascists. Always promoting hitler, though they fought like turkeys. And, they fold like cheap cardboard suitcases whenever they come under fire.
Bush, by the way, is way too close to the House of Saud. You see this on Jimmuh Carter. But then? James Baker escapes your notice.
While under the table there are BIG TIME players; as if they’ve stolen the CIA playbook. And, they’re working some of this stuff in ways that at least with litvenenko, “blew up on them.”
Oswald was a dupe. There are no players here who were duped. Just used like mules. With the spin done to protect the most that billions can buy. It’s a casino. But it has no name. (Yet.)
Thank you for reading the tea leaves on this AJ. It’s been on my mind.
The most pathetic thing of all: President Bush had the smart, winning plan all along, along with the support of a majority of Republican voters and the general population. Wouldn’t it have been smart to have supported the president, passed comprehensive reform, and very probably preserved their majorities? But the group deluge via “conservative” talk radio/TV/blogs created the false perception that some hidden vast majority of Americans support the extreme restrictionist view on immigration. House Pubbies apparently bought the spin and restricted themselves right out of power.
I am sure you’re also right that hardliners won’t turn down the volume or deal graciously with defeat… “setting the stage for the 2008 repeat losses.”
Along those lines, I heard that LOSER restrictionist J.D. Hayworth — is pitching a talk radio show that would deal solely with immigration — naturally from the loser, restrictionist point of view. Doesn’t that sound helpful and hopeful for the future of the GOP?
TomAnon
“I am frankly not willing to watch the security of the country sacrificed at the feet of “pure conservative†thought. Border Security and Immigration need to be addressed if even on an incremental basis. Perhaps that is what polls are saying that Democrats can be more trusted on issues of Security.”
I wish you had made it a little clearer on what your point is. I personally don’t think the country’s security should be sacrificed at the hands of either the Dems or Repubs. I don’t believe the polls in either case. Right now it appears that both parties seem hell-bent on selling out on immigration. All for the sake of “getting the vote”
I don’t even see where any “new laws” on immigration need to be passed. None have been enforced in the past, and none are going to be enforced in the future. If the current border were enforced and the current immigration laws were enforced there would be no problem. Kicking the can down the road by passing some new laws that might fix the problem, if they were enforced, will benefit no one because none of them will ever be enforced. The imm. laws presently proposed will solve nothing, as intended, except to get more votes for Democrats. The border will never be secured because no one, and I mean NOT ONE person responsibile for enforcing border security is even slightly interested in enforcing it.
I’m not talking about building fences, I’m talking about securing the border.
If there is any provision in the “new” proposal that will require enforcement, it is certainly different from the old one. The proposal earlier this year was just a ‘feel good’ bill.
The ‘less than two’, ‘more than two-less than five’,’ more than five’ is about as meaningless as anything can be. None of it can be proven, so it can’t be enforced.
Even if this passes I don’t think it will accomplish a lot. The penalty of paying back taxes will be too much and many will elect to remain underground. Their employers will allow this because they pay illegals less than American citizens and can undercut their competition with lower bids. The only way to get around this is stiff jail sentences and fines for both employer and employee. This whole thing will be a tremendous job and not all by any means will comply.
If we don’t build a fence these rapists, murderers and downright crooks will still come back across the border as they have done many times after being deported. The security of the border has always been to me to keep terrorists out and the government has done a poor job of this. Until we recognize that these illegals coming across the border do not have the rights of Anerican citizens when they are in effect trespassing on private land and the owners of that land have the right to stop them from crossing their land we will accomplish mothing. One guy was fined over $98,000.00 for pulling a gun on some of them. Two guards were sent to prison for so called rough handling. How can we get security guards for the border if they are in danger of going to jail for doing their jobs and owners of land keeping trepassers off their land? I realize everyone in these positions are not super wonderful but there is a limit. Those penalties were excessive.
This the same as in Iraq where the enemy can accuse our soldiers of rape and murder and are believed explicitly by the cut and run people who get on television and harp on their guilt ad nauseum like Murtha for instance. We are over there helping these people find independence and our soldiers are in harm’s way not only fighting a war but also fighting a PR war with the enemy and their willing cohorts the media.
There is nothing in this bill about the illegals on welfare being returned to Mexico and all the free benefits they have received at the cost of bankrupting hospitals and other facilities. Or our overcrowded schools where probably no one is learning anything since the majority of the illegals do no speak English. I imagine it is hard to teach a child who does not understand what you are saying.
If the illegals would assimilate, learn English, obey our laws and be loyal to the United States I would have no objections to their being here per se but I wonder how many will comply. What many who want them to be deported en masse don’t realize is that our economy will plummet if this happens. Nevermind the trauma to the country if this happened.
Barbee
“This the same as in Iraq where the enemy can accuse our soldiers of rape and murder and are believed explicitly by the cut and run people who get on television and harp on their guilt ad nauseum like Murtha for instance. We are over there helping these people find independence and our soldiers are in harm’s way not only fighting a war but also fighting a PR war with the enemy and their willing cohorts the media.”
Not, it’s not, hon. In Iraq WE are the illegal invader. This attitude, my
Strata-sphere fans, goes a long way in explaining why America will lose to the Hispanic invasion. No sense of priorities. No sense of
ethics. No sense of nation versus Empire. No sense, no victory.
I will concede that a totally meaningless bill will likely be passed. Excuse me, meaningless as far as helping the illegal situation. It will be meaningful in helping Democrats get votes.
There will likely be no border between the US and Mexico 20 years from now. When that Superhighway is open, there will not even be a pretense of border security.
I guess I can’t understand why anyone feels that a new bill will solve anything. There is no pretense of enforcing any laws that have been passed in the past. What is there about the new one that makes anyone think any part of it will be enforced. I just see it as more of the same.
Do we need a solution? Certainly. I don’t know of any solution that will ever work if all we do is pass meaningless laws. Look at the fence law that was just passed. 99% of the people would have bet when it was signed that it would never be built. No one is EVER serious about enforcing ANY illegal immigrant law that is passed.
Doesn’t matter if the guest worker program is amnesty, doesn’t matter if anyone clings to any illusion about immigration law enforcement. All the illegals in the country will be entitled to amnesty and citizenship whether there is or is not a guest worker program.
Anyone that believes anything on illegals will ever be enforced should study the past, the result will be the same. Why wouldn’t it be?
Would I like it to be better? Yes. Does what I want make any difference? no. Unfortunately.
The president has said that you can accomplish a lot if you don’t care who gets the credit or the blame. The immigration issue will be solved with some sort of amnesty/guest worker accommodation. Since his own party won’t get behind his initiatives, the other side will get the credit, but in any case, the job will get done.
Too bad Republicans are so weak and timid to support Bush and that’s why so many of them lost their seats. I see a repeat in ’08 and for the same reason.
God bless and keep our wonderful president healthy and safe.
America is not a serious country, don’cha know? The large
metropoli are crime ridden but no chain gangs or penal colonies when we need ’em and every other serious crime is by a repeat offender who was wrist-slappped and let out early. Add Hispanics to the other minority crime epidemic and you got salt in ther bleeding wound.
But of course we can bring peace and “independence”-our style, of course, to Iraq-just ask Barbara.
Burp, let’s just appoint Bush Emperor and throw our unworthy selves at his brilliant feet.
Barbara The tax back payment issue wouldn’t hold them back, most of them would file that they were making $5 hour with many dependents and would receive EIC for their childen and would actually get a tax refund. I’ve seen evidence that many of the illegals now file tax returns under several names and get back EIC on each. (that story was on news, may not be true) I do agree that many would remain in the background until they are confident that they will have amnesty. I do support what you said about the Border agents liability in trying to enforce laws. Seems like things have gona awry there.
http://blog.vdare.com/
Flood Tom Brokaw’s site with anti-invasion comments!
Strata says the Guest Worker program will strengthen border control.
What he really means is , strengthen the weight of his wallet and
weaken that of the American worker.
Erp “Too bad Republicans are so weak and timid to support Bush and that’s why so many of them lost their seats. I see a repeat in ‘08 and for the same reason”
Funny how people interpret things, I personally think Repubs lost votes because they were WEAK on the immigration issues(and being weak is to give amnesty). I don’t personally support him on his immigration stand, but I do on everything else and I didn’t vote against anyone because of their stand on immigration. I voted by party, not issue, because there is NOT one issue I agree with Dems on. I haven’t really done any analysis about why the Repubs lost, but I believe it is most likely because not enough progress was being made in Iraq. Even tho the Dem position is to cave on Iraq, and Repubs sure don’t favor that.
I see you also feel that this is basically coming down to amnesty/guest worker(same thing) accomodation.
It doesn’t matter who is behind the Pres on the issue, the Dems will get credit whichever way it goes. They have the formerly MSM in their pockets.
FE,
Amnesty and Guest Worker are not the same. A little research might be in order. Or, you can just dig your feet in and fuss. Meanwhile, the Border remains open and AQ continues to build up its base and materiel.