Jan 17 2007
Al Qaeda Moving Out Of Baghdad – Now We See Them!
Not much time to blog this but Powerline has a story up that claims US Intel is seeing Al Qaeda flee Baghdad on orders from their regional commander. This is excellent news. It means Al Qaeda has blown their covers, we see them moving and most likely know where they came frome. Red targets all around! That is the easiest way to get the bad guys to stand out from the population they are hiding in. The Surge is seeing on positive results already.
Steven Den Beste, commenting at Captain’s Quarters, thought the news was a disaster in waiting. Because? He thinks the Al-Kay-duh guys are of the mind they can “wait us out.” And, then come back, after we “pack up and leave.”
While I think Bush will hold tight for the next two years.
The “movement” would have joined other traffic flowing towards the villages. So, I’m not so sure you can “mark” much. These guys could leave in pairs. Or in threesomes. Even on donkey carts.
But they are going to villages without much electricity. No roads. And, other than TWO DIFFERENT villages (according to Iraq the Model, it seems that the bad guys will hunker down. And, NOT come out and engage in any fighting!
The damages in Baghdad mainly comes from the terror against the citizenry.
And, it’s anybody’s guess, once Sadr’s minions leave (to one friendly village). And, the HOUSE OF SAUD characters, the sunnis, leave in another direction. For another village. One has to assume that instead of infantry, we “could” treat the villages as the “rear.” And, use gun ships, if necessary.
It’s also very possible that transferring the munitions isn’t the same as pulling things along in a donkey cart. So logistics “could” become a problem for the enemy, ahead.
While it seems the major hope among the bad guys is to “wait us out.”
And, it’s possible that Bush has no intention of leaving, under any circumstances. Let alone how this would shape up politically for the clown party. As they attempt to race into the presidency in ’08.
Maliki? He’s NOT stupid!
And, for all we know, iran, herself, is less than welcoming towards the verbal-gerbil ensounced in the presidency. At what point could iran change the stakes? I do not know. The civilian population is not armed. But it seems infrastructure is reaching disaster proportions. And, the current ayotollah is near death’s door. If not already beyond it. (And, “successor-ships” don’t carry over for tyrants. A long time ago, in ancient Greece, the tyrants survived 30 years, and then the in-fighting and weaknesses is the progenry stock took over.)
Russia, by the way, also failed on her own steam.
Reagan got the credit for that one without even firing a shot.
When waiting for history to happen, of course, we have to wait and see what repeats itself.
Like Rats(which they are) leaving a sinking ship(which it is)
Once all that weight is gone, the ship will right itself. (with our help)
Meanwhile, in Ramadi.
But you guys really need to understand that this is not an uncontrolled rout from Baghdad. The new leader of Al Qaida in Iraq is a military man with real military training. This is NOT good news. We should have anticipated this and had them “evacuate” right into the jaws of a trap. Instead we have allowed them to escape.
I am not convinced that telegraphing our plans publically a month in advance was a good idea.
what appears to be telegraphing our plans publically isn’t necessarily the case. we are at war and our military know what they are doing.
Probably correct, but at least the capitol city will have order. The other towns are much smaller and will be easier to locate the terrorists in them. Yes, they should’ve set a trap ahead of time, but let’s let this play out. At this rate, Baghdad should be very peaceful very soon and how are the Dems and turncoats(a few Repubs) gonna play that. Duh, it didn’t work?
crosspatch,
I doubt that Bush played his whole hand. And isn’t it better to force them to react before we even deploy?
I should had included our president along with our military as knowing what they are doing.
oh no. typo. had should have been have. (smile)
nope. not a typo. a mistype. (in case Jerry is lurking and getting ready to pounce on me)
I will bet you that in three weeks the American public will be convinced that the “surge” has failed when in fact it hadn’t even started. We will get news reports in early February about the status of the “surge” one month on … when in fact it would just be getting started.
I am NOT prepared to say that our leadership or military is infallible and always knows exactly what it is doing. It DOES make mistakes and we need honest debate. I am not with the left in their harping and turning everything into a defeat and I believe this has a chance to work, but I don’t believe that speech was the right way to go about things … granted, what I know about the big picture could fit in a flea’s jockstrap … still, FDR didn’t describe in detail our invasion of Normandy to include how the beaches would be divided up and what our overall strategy would be before we did it.
The enemy in Iraq and here in the US (mainly the press) now have about a month to work unopposed to thwart that strategy.
I guess what I am saying is that I would feel a LOT better if the President had waited until he was ready to pull the trigger before making the speech.
Crosspatch, I don’t believe our leadership or military are infallible either. I do believe, however, that it isn’t our leadership or the military that we have to worry about as far as telegraphing plans that will endanger Americans. I guess what I’m trying to say is that all is not what it appears to be in a time of war.
I respect your opinion and you are correct in stating that debate is always healthy and wise.
Crosspatch:
I think we should wait and see what happens. It could well be that the military anticipated this, it might even be one reason Bush went public in the first place. Fallujah was telegraphed as well.
If these people are forced to move out to other locations there might be people in place waiting for them for all we know. Anytime they have to move they are using resources and losing momentum.
I don’t know if this will succeed but there is no way we can move 21,000 people over there without them knowing about it. it is not possible to sneak that many people in the country anyway.
But, suppose what he said he’s going to do is NOT what he’s going to do. Maybe he knew where they would flee to and he has a special hell with no virgins set up for them there.
FE, I had the same thought. If we know they’re fleeing, then we must know who they are, and if we know who they are, it makes it just that much easier to get the bastards. My guess is we’ll find out soon enough.
crosspatch,
Agree about what we can expect to see in the press and in the Dem press conferences. They undermine us at every turn.
But Bush had to offer something to his critics, even if in generalities. I doubt that any useful details were revealed (ie district outlines and force structure in each.) Again, the unannounced components to the plan we can only guess at.
The Germans expected an invasion, but knew not where. Britain faked a different location with staged intelligence.
If You Know, I Know, and heaven forfend They Know, WhAT SHALL WE DO. Why run in circles and scream and SHOUT of course………..
Dorf77 ,
Meaning?
AJ,
If the “soft underbelly” of congress prevents the Plan from succeeding, it will earn the shame of history, just as it did in selling out the Vietnamese.
Bush isn’t going to pull the trigger until Maliki does. I’m thinking he will not. He is all talk and no action. Then Bush goes to plan B. I’m thinking he already knows that Maliki will not get it together, and has plan B ready. Can anybody think what plan B is? The Saudi’s, Egypt, Jordan must be involved. The Sunni’s are not going to let Iran take over Iraq.