There are signs there is a shift in the Litvinenko story, a shift that has media reporting starting to distance itself from the assassination claims of Litvinenko’s ‘friends’ (or one could just as easily call them ‘business associates’). This first article is interesting in that it takes elements of the assassination theory, clearly associates these ideas with these so called associates of Litvinenko, but then get’s the views of authorities, which many times conflict with the prevailing assassination theory (as I would suspect since I am still not buying that hypothesis). I have separated the assassin rumors from the views of officials in order to emphasize the change in tone:

[Assassin Theory]: As London prosecutors determine whether to file criminal charges, Felshtinsky and others of Litvinenko’s expatriate Russian friends have pieced together their own picture of how the former agent died.

…

They believe that the true killer might have been a tall, elusive Russian man known only as “Vladislav,” who shows up on airport surveillance videos and was present briefly during Litvinenko’s fatal lunch, then disappeared without a trace. Most likely, they say, he was a highly trained Russian spy operating in Europe.

[Authorities’ View]: London police appear not so ready to settle on a motive. “It’s still a complex picture,” said a British security official familiar with the case. The official confirmed that investigators are looking at the mysterious Vladislav, although he was cautious about the Russians’ description of him as a top intelligence operative.

While the FSB/KGB agents who had their covers blown by Litvinenko may harbor fantasies of payback (think our own Aldrich Ames for a comparison) the description of this man makes him a bit young to be on a mission of vengeance. Also, if he was out to pay Litvinenko back he would not still be under cover. Authorities are clearly warning to back off viewing this man as some master agent, though he is still probably someone of shady character. In the context of a smuggling ring theory, this could be another low level mule, someone who lives on the seedier, illegal side of life. But no mastermind. Here is a classic case of mixed message:

[Authorities’ View]: The official also said the British investigation has focused on two Russian businessmen …

[Assassin Theory]: … who Litvinenko’s friends believe were at least collaborators in the case: Andrei Lugovoi and Dmitry Kovtun. Both men, former FSB agents, sat with Litvinenko in the Millennium Hotel’s Pine Bar as he drank the apparently deadly cup of tea.

Classic propaganda. Mix two views in one sentence to give the impression there is a connection. But, if Lugovoi and Kovtun are cooperating witnesses, the UK “focus” could be on their testimony and observations, not some guilt. And if they were part of a smuggling effort with their friends and associates who now point the finger at them, then they could be of interest because they turned states evidence under a plea agreement. But clearly there are some new doubts about the assassination claims that everyone immediately assumed were true:

The apparent involvement of Lugovoi and Kovtun is puzzling. If they were the killers, why did they not disappear after Litvinenko’s death? Instead, they presented themselves to the British embassy in Moscow and gave a news conference.

So we see some gap showing up, some lack of confidence in the absoluteness of the assassination angle. Why? Because the authorities are the ones throwing cold water on many of the premises holding up that theory.

Did the killers know they were handling polonium, a highly lethal substance that leaves abundant radioactive traces? The sloppy international trail of polonium points to a scenario in which masterminds could have given the suspects the mission of killing Litvinenko and provided them with poison, but without telling them what the poison consisted of, the British official said.

[Authorities’ View]: “Were they set up?” the official asked. “Their behavior suggests a remarkable lack of knowledge of polonium.”

This has been one of many weak points in the assassination theory. Lugovoi and Kovtun went on their merry way, staying in the public spotlight all this time, when clearly they could have disappeared like the mysterious Russian. And one thing is really important to keep in mind when we sift the propaganda coming from Litvinenko’s associates: they have been wrong almost all the time. For example:

Oleg Gordievsky, the former KGB station chief who defected to Britain in 1985 and later became friends with Litvinenko, said he is convinced Lugovoi and Kovtun were part of the plot, but were not the ones who administered the poison.

That, he said, probably was the job of the tall, mysterious man who appears on airport surveillance videos. Cameras caught him talking with Kovtun as they arrived at Heathrow Airport on a flight from Hamburg, Germany, days before Litvinenko was poisoned.

Clearly Gordiesky missed the memo from Kovtun that he landed (and would go through passport control) at Gatwick – not Heathrow. Not to mention the fact Kovtun arrived in London the day Litvinenko met with the Russians (which is why if Litvinenko, Lugovoi and Kovtun were all in the same room as the poisoning incident it was highly likely it was in Lugovoi’s room since there was only part of one day when they were all in London.

Here, in a second article, is an interview with the leader of the Litvinenko “Friends” which highlights other problems with the assassination theory. First and foremost is the fact Lugovoi was a highly trusted associated of Berezovsky, who at one time was his bodyguard and the one responsible for the safety of Berezovsky’s daughter. Now it is Berezovsky who is trying to pretend these old ties, the willingness to take a bullet for him or his daughter (which is what bodyguards are hired to do) is now nothing.

There was a time when Berezovsky trusted Lugovoi, but he says trust and personal relationships are nothing next to the power of the Russian security services. Once a person enters the world of the Russian secret services, the old KGB or the current FSB, there is simply no way out, and betrayal carries a death sentence. Ultimately, according to Berezovsky, in President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, loyalty to the state supersedes all, and is forever.

The problem with this line of BS is Lugovoi had chosen to side with Berezovsky over Mother Russia and went to jail for it, as well as for helping other Oligarchs. And I find it hard to believe someone who would take a bullet fortBerezovsky and his daughter would all of a sudden be scared when he was a successful businessman in his own right with plenty of money. Lugovoi had no reason to risk all to get Berezovsky, but he could have been greedy enough to work one more time with his old employer.

And what is really intriguing is Lugovoi contacted Berezovsky!

This week, Lugovoi called Berezovsky from Moscow, and the two spoke for the first time since Litvinenko was poisoned — since Lugovoi and Berezovsky sat in Berezovsky’s office, drinking wine and discussing matters of a much less serious nature late last year.

During the conversation, Lugovoi told Berezovsky that he was concerned about his name being dragged through the mud. Although Berezovsky has said in the past that, on his deathbed, Litvinenko told him that Lugovoi may have been involved in the poisoning, Berezovsky told Lugovoi on the phone, “Look, if you know you are not guilty, get on a plane and come to London; talk to Scotland Yard.”

Lugovoi responded that he wasn’t ruling out doing that; he might indeed come to London. Still, Berezovsky senses that something holds Lugovoi back. It could be the FSB or Russian Security Services, or it could be something else.

Well, let’s be clear here. Lugovoi probably called with Russian authorities (if not UK authorities as well) listening in on the conversation. Berezovsky and his allies hinted from day one Lugovoi was the killer, but they did it without naming his name – even though it is clear now Lugovoi and Berezovsky knew each other very well. In fact, this article opens with some interesting new details on the Po-210 contamination in Berezovsky’s office:

I had no sooner helped myself to a seat in Boris Berezovsky’s sleek Mayfair office when he pointed out that I was sitting where Andrei Lugovoi sat the day before former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko was poisoned late last year.

That chair later tested positive for polonium 210.

It’s since been switched for a new one.

In other accounts it was a couch, not a chair. My guess is the couch was also contaminated, but by Litvinenko, who supposedly was there the day after Lugovoi and contaminates the copy machine in the office area. We shall see, but it does play into the bigger picture of what happened during the month of October and all the Po-210 being spread around. Here is one thing I agree with Berezovsky on:

Berezovsky says that until the entire polonium 210 chain is revealed, from its very source, to its handlers, and the way it got into Litvinenko’s tea, no one can feel safe anywhere.

What worries me more is not how it got into Litvinenko, but where is the rest of it? Litvinenko’s dosage was microscopic, impossible to handle in a solid form. But it seems it was in a solid form from what is seen in the Po-210 trail and the levels of contamination. If Litvinenko died because some microscopic amounts were released in a spill in the hotel room from a source that could have been much larger. If so, where did it all go?