The number of people seriously exposed to the ‘assassination’ of Alexander Litvinenko has increased by three over recent weeks. If we look at the last two HPA reports (here and here) we see an interesting pattern on where the contamination was apparently picked up:

[1] 15 people had results above 6mSv which are not significant enough to result in any illness in the short term and any increased risk in the long term is likely to be very small. (The 15 includes a new result from a further member of staff at the Sheraton Hotel, Park Lane , and a new result from a further guest who visited The Pine Bar, at the Millennium Hotel London Mayfair, on 1 Nov 2006)

[2] 16 people had results above 6mSv which are not significant enough to cause any illness in the short term and any increased risk in the long term is likely to be very small. (The 16 includes a new result from a further guest who visited The Pine Bar, at the Millennium Hotel London Mayfair)

Of the three, one is believed to be contaminated at the Pine Bar on November 1st. I thing that brings the number of visitors to the bar to 3 who were contaminated on November 1st. It is very important to note WHEN they were at the bar and contaminated. Because if there was something being spread from the dishwasher (which clearly contaminated the entire kitchen staff, but one) then you might see the contaminations occur well after Litvinenko departed around 5:00 PM.

And that is why it is interesting to note there is no date on the second visitor the Pine Bar to shows signs of contamination. I am not sure why the difference, but it is there and probably noteworthy. Was this person contaminated on November 2nd? How about November 7th? We cannot tell. It could have been on October 31st, throwing all the assassination theories out the window.

The third person listed with serious contamination is from the Sheraton Park Lane which coincides with Lugovoi’s meeting with Litvinenko around Oct 25th, the second of three visits showing Po-210 trails. This meeting did not include Dmitri Kovtun who was, at the time, traipsing Po-210 around Hamburg it seems. But the broader point is critical because there is an enormous pool of evidence with clear timeline dates to define when the Po-210 trail was being created. And that is associated with the hundreds of people who show elevated, yet not deadly, Po-210 contamination. From the last report we have this staggering number of people showing elevated Po-210:

Category 1

* 560 people had results ‘below reporting level’ – below 30 millibecquerels (mBq) per day (natural levels of Po-210 in urine are typically in the range 5-15 mBq per day). It is therefore unlikely that any of these people had been exposed to Po-210

Category 2

* 85 people had results above 30 mBq per day in their urine, but with a dose less than 1mSv indicating no public health risk, and no health concern to the individual, but probable contact with Po-210

Category 3a

* 34 people had results above 1 millisievert (mSv), but below 6mSv indicating no public health risk, and no health concern to the individual, but probable contact with Po-210

There are 679 results in categories 1, 2 and 3a and these are NOT of health concern.

That is an enormous amount of data points. That is from people who came forward with concerns they were contaminated or were tested due to proximity to the trail (hotel staff at the three locations, restaurant staff at the three locations, etc). Each person can testify to when they felt the encountered the Po-210 trail. For comparison, on December 2nd the number of people with possible exposure (this is when the testing was ramping up) was around 194 people. The number of people contaminated has tripled since that time. And one thing that will really tell what happened is how those 679 data points lay out on a timeline and map. That is an important piece of information the authorities are holding which really could tell what was going on with the Po-210, whether it was smuggling or an assassination attempt. In my opinion it a lot hangs with the security firms on the Po-210 trail. If they did not know what they were transporting until after Litvinenko died (which is where I think Lugovoi and Kovtun come in) then they may turn state’s evidence on any operation that ended up risking their lives and the lives of their families. It is clear many people involved in this had no idea what Po-210 was like. So it is very doubtful they knew what they were handling or dealing with.