Mar 01 2007

Conservative Realignment

Published by at 10:58 am under All General Discussions

Hard core conservatives may need to face some facts: they bet all on fighting their President in 2006 and ended up losing big in the Congress. The risk here is the far right get’s the wrong message from this public rebuke. The example is best seen in a piece out by Robert Novak:

New York-based political consultant Kieran Mahoney’s statewide survey of probable Republican participants in the 2008 Iowa presidential caucuses shows this support for the “big three” GOP candidates: John McCain, 20.5 percent; Rudy Giuliani, 16.3 percent; Mitt Romney, 3.5 percent. Astonishingly, they all trail James Gilmore, the former governor of Virginia, with 31 percent.

How could that be? Because it was not a legitimate survey, but a “push poll.” That normally is a clandestine effort to rig a poll by telling respondents negative things about various candidates. Mahoney makes no secret that his voter sample was told of liberal deviations by McCain, Giuliani and Romney, and of true-blue conservatism by Gilmore (Mahoney’s client).

I like Jim Gilmore, he was VA’s last Republican Governor. If I thought he could win I would chose him. I like Guiliani better. My priority is winning the war against Islamo Fascism. Next is Romney. Sadly McCain is way to liberal for any serious consideration. He is a key asset to conservatism, but he will not be its standard bearer.

And neither will Newt Gingrich (out trashing Bush on Iraq) or Tancredo or Duncan Hunter. Conservatism took a blow in 2006 because of the far right and their arrogance – they road it all they way to blistering defeat. The bet the Congress and lost. How badly they lost has not yet fully dawned on them – or Novak.

Mahoney is trying to prove a point widely accepted in Republican ranks. None of the three front-line candidates is a natural fit for the nation’s right-of-center party. Without question, there is a conservative void. The question is whether Gilmore or any new candidate can fill it.

The most commonly mentioned void filler is not Gilmore but Newt Gingrich. A straw poll by the right-wing Citizens United organization of its political contributors showed Gingrich leading with 31 percent (followed by Giuliani at 25 percent, Romney at 10 percent and McCain at 8 percent). But based on his record as speaker of the House, Gingrich’s conservative record is far from flawless.

The keys to success are with Bush[W]-Reagan conservatives. Many of whom are like me – not a Republican but and independent. Gingrich is getting more money from the bedrock Rep donators – but he will not get the nod. Do the math. The pushed conservative garnered 31%, the liberal-RINOs got over 40% combined. The nation is about 30-30-30 (Dem-Indie-Rep). Far left is about 15%, far right is about 20-25%. No one wins without the middle and the middle is fed up with partisans. When the far right highjacked the President’s popular stances on a range of issues and then lost in 2006 they became, in essence, incapable. They wanted to make a show and they did – they showed failure. Instead of pursuing the war aggressively we are listening to ridiculous ramblings from the Liberal Dem leadership.

The old saying “Fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice then shame on me” still carries weight. The far right had their chance, blew it. The far left is having their chance, and blowing it. The center right is ascending (Romney, Schwarzenegger, Rell, Bush) – as it should. The democrats who won in 2006 shifted center left to center right. Lieberman won CT handily when faced with far right and far left candidates. I could go on but what is the point – denial of what happened in 2006 is still too strong with the far right. I have completely lost interest in Hannity, Ingraham, Kristol and all the other far right talking heads. What is the point? They repeat demonstrably unpopular and unwinnable positions.

I, like many voters, are tired of theories. We need a small and focused and productive government. It is not all bad, it is not all good. Stop with the sound bite policies. We need to do something about illegal immigration – we need to keep the solid, family oriented, community oriented workers and get rid of the criminals. We need to get them out in the open, not marched to the borders.

We need solutions, not pipe dreams. Our patience is wearing thin with the squabbling without results. Win in Iraq and change the face of the ME for a brighter future (the thing the Dems screwed up). Keep taxes low, give us a comprehensive immigration package, bar the killing of embryos for science and shore up Social Security. These five things are plenty – and plenty hard to do. Focus on these and promise to make progress (not perfection – I don’t believe in that myth anyway). Do that and you will win in 2008. This ain’t rocket science.

34 responses so far

34 Responses to “Conservative Realignment”

  1. Mike M. says:

    The problem is that a comprehensive immigration package has GOT to include a barrier to illegal immigration.

    I think the level of disgust in Middle America with the influx of illegals has been grossly underestimated…the problem has been that the biggest advocates of tight border control, such as Tom Tancredo, have been Johnny One-Note candidates.

    The irony is, the higher the wall, the easier some sort of legalization policy for current illegals would be. Voters would be far more willing to allow legalization – with a hefty fine, of course – if they knew that there would be no more illegals.

    Which means a proper barrier wall, along with MUCH tighter visa oversight. People tend to forget that roughly 40% of the illegals entered the United States legally….and simply “forgot” to go home.

  2. stevevvs says:

    AJ, Dude, it is you who is misinformed. I have but one minute.
    OK, The Tamper Proof I.D. First of all, we are talking Millions of people. Do you plan ANY BACKGROUND checks? Or just issue 20 million? Secondly, HOW DO YOU KNOW WHO THEY ARE WITHOUT BACK GROUND CHECKS? Take their word for it? THE SYSTEM OF LEGAL IMMIGRATION AS WE KNOW IT TODAY IS BROKEN. UNTIL IT IS FIXED, YOUR DREAM WONT WORK! We are SHREDDING, LOOSING, etc. Hundreds of Thousand LEGAL APPLICATIONS NOW! We have OVER 400,000 Expired Visa people WE DON’T KNOW WHERE THEY ARE! DUDE, WAKE UP, SMELL THE COFFEE.



  3. owl says:

    Yahooo AJ. Exactly right on the loss of the last election and the dumbos in Congress bought the BDS put out even by our own. Go Rudy!!!

    I do not respect any of them that trash Bush.

    Immigration. What really makes me angry is the total wasted issue. I’m not as easy as you AJ, but miles from the Tancredos. I actually agree that something needs to be done and then I lay the mess back on their steps because they refused to accept anything except the ‘all or nothing’ route. Insane.

    Stevevvs…..I live in TX and they completely took over a town close to me. I can imagine if a person lived on the border. Really. Yes, I have known illegals and some are very fine people. You are right that it is past time for action. I know this issue. That’s the reason I am livid with the Malkin/Tancredos. They stopped it from happening. And NO, I do not agree with the McCain plan either. Bush could have been convinced to move slightly right……but oh no…..we must send them all back. Nuts. So you tell me……who stopped having anything done about a problem that I see getting worse every day?

  4. Bikerken says:

    Owl, you are misreading the argument altogether. I have not heard anyone say we have to send them all back or nothing at all. That is an assinine position. What we are asking for is that you don’t throw the border open wide to all comers and let tens of millions more in in a very short period of time. And that is exactly the effect that this stupid bill is going to have. You jackasses who support this immigration push HAVE NO IDEA OF WHAT YOU ARE SUPPORTING. That’s what pisses me off. If you really READ what is in the Freaking bill, you wouln’t support it either.

  5. Terrye says:


    Get a grip.

    The majority of the American people have made it plain that they do not support people like Tancredo. I did not even read 90% of your stuff, you are raving. Sheesh. Might as well talk to soothie about the war.

    You act as if anyone and everyone who looks at a solution to the immigration problem differently from you has no desire to deal with it. Or is just plain stupid.This attitude is what killed the Reps in the last election. Other people are not uninformed, they just disagree with you.

    I can remember saying months ago that if the Republicans did not resolve this issue in a way that the two thirds of the country who support comprehensive immigration reform want it resolved they might very well find themselves with a minority in Congress and even less chance to get a tough bill.

    Well, they have. They shot themselves in the foot and what is more the Democrats are whipping them on this issue all over the country, including the border states. The only thing the nativists accomplished was to alienate the Hispanic vote. If anything gets done on this or if current efforts are continued it will be because of bipartisan support. But the Democrats are thinking they might want a policy that is easier on illegals than the one the Republicans killed a few months ago.

    I saw a link the other day over at Just One Minute to the effect that increased enforcement on the border has begun to slow the numbers of people coming in and more people are being arrested. This does not mean the problem is solved but it does make it plain that an incremental approach with increased enforcement will help. But the issue of a guest worker program is one that most people support whatever their party and if the right keeps refusing to compromise on this they might very well lose even more than they have.

    I think a lot of people on the right forget that the Republican party is a political party, it has to win to have any power. It is not the Conservative Party or the Minute Men Party …it is the Republican party and it can not win by excluding and alienating the majority of the population.

    Most people prefer effective government to small government. Most people want to see problems solved rather than carry on ideological war fare forever with nothing to show for it but more apathy and disgust among the people.

    AJ makes a good point here. I saw a poll on how people self identify, I don’t have a link…but if it is true then 47% of the people see themselves as moderates. 33% see themselves as conservatives. 18% see themselves as liberal. God only knows what the remaining 2% see themselves as. But the point is the largest group is moderate. Now what conservatives need to do instead of alienating those reach out to them and show that they have policies those people can identify with…acting as if nannies and fruitpickers and roofers from Mexico are a greater threat to the US than jihadi head hackers only makes them think you are weird…obsessed…overboard….maybe a little bit prejudiced…etc.


    Just makes most people think you are having a nervous breakdown.

  6. Terrye says:


    I have heard people say that. In fact when they say that they refuse to have any kind of legalization for these people and refuse to even discuss a guest worker program and demand [as if all it entailed was a wave of a magic wand] that all laws be enforced immediately and that all illegals be sent out of the country and allowed no amnesty…just what is that supposed to mean?

    I have never heard any of these people who just have a cow at the mention of comprehensive immigration ever come to grips with or explain how we are supposed to do what they demand be done. Never. How many more law enforcement people would it take and who would control and train them? How and when do we kick in doors and what to do with families who have children who are citizens…how many courts and judges and detention centers and fences and gates and how long will it take and how much will it costs and what about the labor? No they just demagogue the issue and try to bully everyone else into going along with them.

    Well they lost the election, and the truth is right now they will be doing well to get something as good as what they threw away and if they think it was no good and we are better off without it, then what are they bitching about?

    I grew up in the southwest and I know there are more people coming in now…but even 50 years ago there were communities in Texas and California where as many or more spoke Spanish as English. That is not going to change overnight. Not at this late date.

  7. Bikerken says:

    Terrye, whenever you try to respond to something you don’t read, you take the risk of making an ass out of yourself. And that is precisely what you did here! If you read what I said and then read what you responded, it is clear that you never read what I said!

  8. Bikerken says:

    I might also add TERRYE, that the reason me and steve tend to yell a lot when we discuss this issue is that it means a hell of a lot to us. You keep talking about deporting people and I have said time and time again that we are not talking about or supporting that! When you see quiet safe little towns turn into bullet ridden barrios, it means something to you. When you see your friends one at a time pack up a truck and move out because their whole job sector has been taken over by people living 20 to a house, like construction, trucking, etc, it means something to you. To you guys, this issue seems to mean very little. Those of us who live on the front, know what a crisis this really is. Most of you are plain ignorant to the problem and have your minds made up and this is not a big deal. And you people stubbornly will not pay any attention to what the bill really is about. And you are most certainly NOT in the majority of the repubican party. Even here in liberal California, the candidates who ran the hardest against illegal immigration won. Same in Arizona, the democrats actually ran to the right of the republicans against illegals and they won. You guys have seriously misread that last election.

    Question Terrye, straight up, do you think we can we absorb another 200 million people over the next 20 years just through immigration? If you really believe we can without destroying what we have here, then I would understand you supporting this bill.

  9. Carol_Herman says:

    Even in the center you’ll find lots of people who don’t get worked up over embryos.

    As to the mideast, it’s a shame Bush couldn’t make the argument. Here is his big difference with Lincoln. Lincoln suffered catastrophic losses because his team (McClellan, Hallack), weren’t up to par. And, inside his cabinet Chase tried to “fire” Sewart. Lincoln was able to make clear that he was the boss. And, he also kept testing the American spirit for four long years. What Lincoln grew was CAPITAL. With the people. He had it in the bank. Bush does not. So the failure, really, is within the Bush’s , themselves.

    While the good thing about the Middle East is that we took an action! (It took 40 years to actually go after the pirates … who started attacking American shipping in 1776. Lots of politicians, including Thomas Jefferson, thought it was cheaper to pay tribute than to build a navy.)

    NOW? At least we’ve forced the hands of the HOUSE OF SAUD. They’re no longer on a “free ride.” And, the violent sunnis, that refused to cooperate in Iraq? Half have fled.

    So it explains “why” Condi is going to talk to iran and syria. They’ve got problelms where they are choking on this “humanity.” Ditto for Lebanon. The fractious fighting among the arabs? IT’S A GOOD THING. One winner? IS NOT.

    Once the Iraqis get going, they have the money to build a better country. And, they’ll get there. Since their outburst with loony religion came first, it’s a probability it won’t STICK. You need generations to feed the frenzy. Lebanon? Syria? Iran? And, Gazoo? Yup. They’ve got the generations in, to raise unemployed males who are crazy to live with. Hard to say how that will finally break apart. But at least we’re not the french. Waiting for it to happen in paris.

    The swing left after winning in 2006? The elites have nothing else. They are without ideas. This is how you run regimes. But not anything on par with the size of the American country.

    By the way, the next venture? Isn’t the USA! Get out of here! It’s AFRICA! And, the winners will be the Chinese! They can correct enough of the stuff that’s broken on the cheap. And, they do it with human labor.

    Also, russia just won in chechnya. The violence has been subdued. The only thing missing is the news. Which never arrives from russia, anyway.

    And, the europeans are still roiling in their own mess.

    Why does a man like Rudy shine? He’s got the skills at dealing with the media. No middle men needed. Bush doesn’t own this skill at all.

    But Bush, at least, is not a lame duck. He’s got an ability to hold tight to what he wants. And, there’s very little the media can do to him, ahead. Libby was their sucker punch. And, the jury still being “out,” is a bust. (The jury is out by the way, so the black ladies can spend all day getting their hair done. By Monday they’ll come to court “ready for their close ups.”) And, they’ve got no way to satisfy everyone.

    Plus, if they convict Libby on any count at all, WELLS has the paperwork in front of the DC Curcuit fast enough, that the headline “boppers” … the story that hits the other story away … Will be channelled. What if the jury acquits? Well, the only thing interesting, then, to watch, would be the left. Siss. Boom. Baah. The sound a sheep makes when it explodes.

  10. wiley says:

    AJ is wrong — the far right did not lose the ’06 elections. Being tough on ILLEGAL immigration was a prerequisite for candidates where this was a big issue. Where repubs lost in these districts it was because the dem candidate moved way right, often to the right of the repub, thereby making the issue a wash.

    The elections were lost b/c of the non-scandal Foley-gate, the perceived corruption (some real) which harms the majority more, and the weariness of center/right supporters after seeing run-away spending and the lack of a spine and resolve to nominate more conservative judges. Of course, the long, hard slog of Iraq and Bush’s low poll numbers were big anchors to overcome.

    Being tough on illegal immigration does not mean against guest worker program or other elements of comprehensive reform. It does mean that comprehensive reform includes real measures (such as walls, fences, increased patrols, monitoring, etc.) for securing the borders.

  11. Bikerken says:

    While the good thing about the Middle East is that we took an action!

    You hit the nail on the head here honey! I’ve been saying for years that the reason the countries in the middle east act up so much is “WE LET THEM GET AWAY WITH IT!!!!!” It’s like a rotten child who quickly learns that there is no reall punishment for acting up and now you have a monster on your hands. I give W lots of credit for finally slapping the little brat!

    Wiley, You’re points are all dead on! When republicans display dissatifaction on immigration in the polls, it is not because we want more of it! Conservatives are sick and tired of having our country invaded by a bunch of ingrates! The Statue of Liberty does NOT say, “Give me your drug dealers, your prostitutes, your fatherless families who no longer have the will to make their own country work. Give me your cop shooters, your welfare cases, and anyone else who cares to take a long piss all over the American flag! Yeah bring those people up here by the millions, we’ll take them all!” Unfortunately, someone like Teddy Kennedy, the fat drunken womanizing SOB, is going to write the law and we conservatives are supposed to bow down and applaud it????? It is not us who are splitting the party, it is the BOOBS who have no idea of what they are supporting that are the problem! C’mon folks, if you really believe that Ted Kennedy writing a bill IN SECRET is a good idea, you are not fooling anyone anymore, you are no republican let alone conservative!

    Here’s a fun idea, when the bill finally comes out and we can figure out what the basic points of it are, lets put it to a Blog vote and ask everone on the site whether they are for it or not. Because when I ask people here whether or not they want another 200 million people here in the next 20 years, all I hear is silence athunderous. Nobody will answer that question, even to dispute that it was even a part of the deal. Hell, folks, if you think my numbers are wrong, say so but back it up. (It was actually 191 million but I’m rounding slightly). I really want to know why you folks approve of this crazy crap. I have a feeling, even on this site, the pros are going to lose to the cons about three to one. See if I’m wrong.

  12. Carol_Herman says:

    The “party” thang” can’t elect a winnah.

    A good point in the 2006 “outcome,” is that fer shur, the right wing nutters had a hissy fit. And, what did it get them, actually?

    When you look at the “how to” book on winning, it will show you that it’s a loser’s game to feed the moonbats on the left, and the ding bats on the right. People in the middle are actually comfortable with Rudy Guiliani, Gingrich, and perhaps Romney. (Though Romney seems canned.) And, McCain has been running past his due date for some time, now. Plus he put his foot in his mouth when he said kids in Iraq are dying for nothing. (He forgets our kids, there, are VOLUNTEERS. And, respected by most Americans.) That it’s a sacrifice? YES, IT IS. To join the military means giving up lots of pleasures. But it also TURNS OUT MEN. Did that, too, during WW2. Was famous for it, actually.

    As to the left they are so lost it’s pathetic.

    As to the right? Give me a break. Even Lincoln knew the Whig party collapsed because the party couldn’t figure out how to make decent messages out of what was going on at the time: Natives hating the arrival of germans. And, catholics (Irish). They thought the country was going to hell in a handbasket.

    Of course, slavery. But what irked the white folk, arriving, was that they came here for jobs. And, they didn’t want to compete with slave labor.

    That the south is retarded? Hello. They spent one hundred years, refusing technology; including flushing toilets. Just to keep to their ways. And, you had to get used to it. If you went into a diner, to order coffee? It would take all day. So, yes. There’s “something” to the non-shall-ance of the south that doesn’t hurry. But they got caught in modernization, anyway. And, when Detroit died. Tied to the incompetence of labor AND management; the south, with a labor force that didn’t have to join the unions, thrived.

    There is no such thing as “getting along.” It’s been pretty much “every man for himself,” since time began. But what you get, when governments function, is best left to letting governments function at a minimal. And, letting private enterprise lure the middle class.

    Tamper with that, and you’re tampering with the engine.

    One of the “funny things” that came out of the civil war, was West Virginia. In other words? In 1862 Lincoln cured the Virginia leaving the Union, with creating a WEST VIRGINIA. Out of a component of people who were anti-slavery. So you got two states where there was just one.

    Up ahead? Most Americans are not going to go back to the days, like we had originally, when we had to pay booty to the pirates, and the muslims, from Tripoli, to Tunisia and Algiers. Europe was always on the bandwagon for paying booty.

    We grew our navy, instead.

    And, what we’re doing now, successfully, is what Israel has done. Even with temporary setbacks, Israel has a military to envy. And, so do we.

    That we tend to keep our gun powder dry? Sure. It’s in our nature to go about things slowly. Just like in the cowboy and indian movies. You don’t get to the guy with the badge, cleaning up the crap in town, until the last reel. Life is similiar in lots of ways.

    And, it really does pay to keep your powder dry, most of the time.

  13. stevevvs says:

    It’s great to know you can have expert opinion without knowledge of the subject! Reading is hard! I understand your predicament. Ya, what I posted was the problems we have CURRENTLY with LEGAL immigration. Just put your head back in the sand.
    Should you learn how to read, you may want to read those posting, then try to figure out how in the world we will process MILLIONS of new people.
    Aj, says we will issue “Tamper Proof” ID’s. Fine and dandy.
    My question to that was, are we going to do BACK GROUND CHECKS on those appling for the “TAMPER PROOF” ID’s, or are we just going to issue them?

    Metricular Counselar Cards can be obtained by anyone, with any name you want to give them. Are we going to just give the ID’s based on this?

    Roger Hedgcock, attorney, former Mayor of San Diego, and Talk Show Host has one of these cards! Trust me, he’s not from Mexico, and they issued him one.

    Banks are issuing Credit Cards and giving Mortgages to Illegal Aliens NOW without the same forms of ID YOU AND I WOULD HAVE TO HAVE! We have lost complete control of our own country under the “Leadership” of a man I voted for TWICE!

    Aj says there is nothing to worry about! Stay Cool, everything will be fine. Really? Look around you! Starting this year my Cabarrus County Phone Books Yellow Pages now have Spanish Titles under the English Titles! In Texas we are actively Recruting Mexican Teachers to come to Texas to teach the Mexican and other South American who came here Illegaly in in SPANISH, because the State is so over run with Illegals, there is a shortage of American Teachers who know Spanish.!! Of Course, we don’t deport them, nore do we teach them ENGLISH, NO, we continue to educate them in their native language. We Are Becoming A Country That Is Bi Lingual. And This Is Also Reducing Their Presence In The Middle Class, As They Don’t Have The Language Skills To Move Upward. It’s Quite Sad Really. On The One Hand We Encourage Illegal Crossings, On The Other Hand, We Don’t Encourage Learning English, Nor ASSIMILATION. We Are Balkanizing this Country.
    Some of us follow this on a DAILY BASIS. If you do that, you become very knowledgeable on this subject. Frankly, I wish I had never started doing this because it’s very depressing. But Knowledge is key to understanding. I’d recommend reading BOOKS on this, but I know most here just read web versions of newspapers and gain all their knowledge on this subject thrue 2 to 3 page article. The Tucson Weekly Article prints out to 11.5 pages, far to long for most of you. Your eyes would glaze over by page 4. But books and indepth article are the best way to really learn. The L.A. Weekly Article also is long. But had you read it, you would have found out just how bad one City near L.A. has become, just who is running it, and what their agenda is.
    I know most of you just live on the web and therefore, aren’t expossed to Books. But try it, there isa wealth of information in those pages. Some people have spent YEARS researching this, and in those pages are some amazing stats. Enjoy Your Day Folk!

  14. stevevvs says:

    It is not hard to make this work. Not hard at all. Do not expect me to keep responding to all the little examples of how things DON’T work, because I have no time or desire to knock every single one of them down. Suffice to know I can.

    AJ, PLEASE, you always say this, but somehow you never, ever have the time. Heres a thought: TAKE THE TIME! SHOW US YOUR BRILLIANCE! I’M READY!


    The fact is, your unable to respond, otherwise you would.