Mar 13 2007
Giuliani Will Lead The GOP Pack For Some Time
Giuliani is leading the GOP 2008 polls right now because he is a demonstrated leader with a backbone made of the same steel that President Bush has in his. He has his priorities right in that the war on terror is the paramount issue of the day, and Iraq will determine the course of the war on terror for the next generation. If we win our kids and grand kids may experience a similar life that we boomers (and post boomers like me) have had. If we lose Iraq to al Qaeda, our children’s children will be locked in a generational battle.
But he is also leading because the broader conservative coalition that includes us impure conservatives who get called silly names like RINO, etc, are not going to put our future in the hands of the same stubborn idealogues who ended up losing both houses of Congress in 2006. When punishing immigrants is a higher priority than fixing our borders (a deliberate AND announced tactic of Rep House leadership) then America knows security is taking a backseat to far right blinders. When people turned on Bush for considering Harriet Myers or working business deals with moderate, allied Arab countries (which included the same Arab country investing in state-of-the-art cargo container scanners in all inbound ports they run across the globe) it is clear obsession had taken over for reason.
So it is no surprise Giuliani, Romney or Fred Thompson (if he runs) will be the top option for the GOP presidential race in 2008. The surprise in the liberal media that Giuliani’s moderate stances are not hurting him is no news to those of us who have tired of the GOP purity wars. There are no pure conservatives in a governing majority, by definition. And those who ponder if any of these fine men are conservative enough are the ones who actually sit in the minority. McCain is way too liberal and hot headed to fit the bill for 2008. But Giuliani, Romney and Thompson are cool, level headed coalition builders. They don’t stop progress until they get their way – these people lead.
So am I surprised to hear GOP insiders (i.e., the purity police) are trying to convince themselves Giuliani’s expanding, solidifying lead is somehow really a fragile transient fad? No I am not and I like what I see. Laura Ingraham had to deal with a strong Giuliani supporter and simply whimpered she would hope no one would jump on a bandwagon this far out. What she fears deep down, and what is the reality of the 2006 election, is the far right bandwagon lost its way, threw a couple of wheels and is now being abandoned. It is not anyone is jumping onto a wagon that bothers some, it is their wagon is being vacated. Failure, as we saw throughout 2005-2006, along with acts of turning on our President lockstep with the Dems, was all that was required to end that little parade. Giuliani and the other two moderate conservatives will be in the lead for 2008 for a long, liong time.
The purity wars are over and only a few hold outs are hoping for return to the condescending days where the cries of “oooh, RINOs!” was the disparanging words echoing across the rightward landscape. By losing so spectacularly there is no need for moderates to hang their hat on the far right and hope to bring some sanity to the movement. Now there is a sea of moderates who have soured on the far right and left, exemplified by the fickled and muddled dems now in power. The cleaning of Congress will continue until the radicals are distant memories, and moderate Presidents will run rough shod over Congress during the cleansing process.
The era of the moderate is settling upon a tired, weary, threatened nation.
AJ, I think you are right. However, Romney and Thompson are both pretty conservative, more than Rudy I think.
I like Thompson, but I think he might be too old for the job.
I do think that ideologues of either extreme tend to limit the appeal of their party. That does not mean people can not have principles or strong feelings, however, they must be willing to make a compromise when it is necessary to accomplish larger goals.
Reagan understood that.
AJ
I am of the opinion that the extremist pressures could be more damaging to the left than the right in the 2008 cycle. The right extreme might be extreme but they are also mindful of history and may contribute to a midterm slapdown but it would take a bunch to get them to buy the farm in 2008.
However the extreme left seems to offer no similar trend or possibility.
AJ,
The way I see it is that the term “Conservative” stands for an amalgam of positions:
• individual liberty
• dignity of human life at all stages
• smaller, more efficient government
• free economy
• constitutional right to bear arms
• right to control our boarders
• duty to protect our nation from outside threats
• The responsibility to stand for human rights everywhere
Each conservative prioritizes these in his own way, but we come together to be successful. I might be willing to compromise on different issues than the next conservative. But we would not need to compromise if we could be more persuasive.
Yup. The GOP used to be controlled by the Rockefeller Brothers, at the Chase Manhattan Bank. A man named Cliff White, working with Goldwater, started, in 1958 to see a way around the GOP stranglehold. Which is what gave Goldwater the nomination in 1964. Alas? The country was traumatized by the JFK assassination. And, Goldwater? Actually, an ornery dude. No sense of humor.
But it was Reagan’s FIRST SHOT at national attention. He gave a very rousing speech for Goldwater. It didn’t help much. But it gave Reagan NATIONAL RECOGNITION, before 1966. When, two years, later, Reagan would run for Governor of California.
A little known detail? In 1970, two years before Blackmun made it Federal, Reagan signed into law abortion rights for women. Taking the practice out of California’s back alleys.
It’s hardly likely that we’re going to go back to back alleys.
It’s also possible that politicians are sick and tired of having to tweak the conservatives to get a spot on the ticket. And, so? Schwartzenegger has moved California’s primary to February 5th. In 2008. There will be 20 states, now, picking the tops of tickets. Which, again, defuses a problem that brought both Bush’s into the nomination. Where they CRAPPED OUT.
Yes. Bush, in the White House, is currently doing everything he can to show how stupid he is. He didn’t need the incompetent AG Gonzalez, going after 8 prosecutors; and getting hung out to dry by the “senate majority of one seat” … You almost have to wonder what goes on in Bush’s head? Well, not much.
James Baker is also rip tearing through the place. Going after Israel, for “slights” done to Baker back in 1990. Again, politicians with popularity ratings in the toilet, tend to harm conventional parties.
While Guiliani has figured out how to build a MACHINE.
Take it from Abraham Lincoln; who saw the WHIGS dissolving over crises they couldn’t settle, coming into 1860. The only way to get elected is to have a lot of people willing to go out and do the heavy lifting. If that’s what’s in place now for Guiliani? He stands a really good chance.
Will Fred Thompson, who has no money. And, no machinery, hope to catch up? That’s the Clinton ploy from 1992. Come out late. And, run fast.
But by then? The headwinds coming up can play havoc with the sails.
And, yes. Americans are constantly redesigning the machinery that gets people elected.
The donks aren’t doing much better. Heck, pelosi has 3 Code Pinkers parked outside her house (with mattresses). Only to discover that her sprinklers go on at 4:00 am. The other thing? That big 10-foot Ghandi puppet? It’s probably the outside of the Port-A-Potty that’s inside. Otherwise, doing your “business” in the street could get you arrested.
But the thing to notice? How small the anti-war crowds are. And, how in Hollywood, there’s money rolling in for 300. Without stars. Made in 60 days. And, that’s REAL MONEY. When it flows like that? People wake up.
All part of how things change; in markets that remain relatively the same.
More important than policies (though that matters), more important than character (though that certainly matters), the quality I would most cherish in a Republican candidate for President in 2008 is this:
THE ABILITY TO PLAY HARDBALL.
Not the down-and-dirty politics of Billary. We don’t need to sink that low. BUT… we do need a Rep candidate who’s not going to take any crap from Dems. None of this reach-across-the-aisle crap. The Dems will bite any hand that feed them. Ditto the Dems in the Executive branch. We need someone who’s willing to march in, fire all the Clintonistas in the State and Defense departments (and who’s willing to clean house in the Attorney General’s office as well). We need a candidate with an aggressive, pro-active approach in assembling a media machine to get his message out. Bush plays the media about as well as a fish rides a bicycle:
Again, some reminders:
Bush recanted 16 words he didn’t need to recant.
Bush stammers and waffles when reporters insist he promised to fire any member of the White House who leaked on Plame when IN REALITY Bush’s original pledge was to fire anyone who was convicted of breaking the law. Only a politician as inept as Bush could make good on his own promise and still look like he’s contradicting himself.
Bush insisted on keeping Rumsfield as SOD even after Rumsfield tendered his resignation twice. If Bush had let Rumsfield resign at his own request *before* the golden mosque exploded think how much more progress we could have made. Instead, Bush waits until after the 2006 election to make the change, and suddenly his decision to change SODs looks like a fallback position. The ideal time to boot Rumsfield would have been after the Iraqi elections. That way Rumsfield could have left on a high note. But, you know, that takes political savvy, something GWB isn’t exactly good at.
Bush let Katrina play him. And Dubai Ports. And on and on. And he doesn’t care. Well, the rest of us do. There’s too many stupid Americans registered to vote to leave anything to chance.
So, yeah, extol all the virtues of Giuliani, or Romney, or whoever. All I ask is one thing: no more addle-brained wimps in the Oval Office. Please.
AJ,
Giuliani lead has nothing to do with an emerging “Age of Moderation” in Republican politics. It is just the opposite.
The “Crab Grass” Republican base wants an Andrew Jackson style war leader for a war that started with a surprise attack on defenseless civilians here at home, AKA a “War to the Knife.”
What that Republican base is specifically looking for a war leader who is
1) A ruthless Son of a B*tch with,
2) No connection to the current Washington elites or interest groups and,
3) Who has a track record of fighting for — and winning — what he believes in.
McCain traded his 2000 “outsider” image for a 2008 “Washington Insider” image and is damned and despised for it.
Fred Thompson played the kind of guy Republican primary voters want on TV.
Giuliani did that in real life, before 9/11/2001, with the right political enemies.
The only one who can beat Giuliani is Giuliani.
DUBIOUSD is dead on!
Bush backbone made of steel????? PULEEEEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZZZ. The fact that he has had no guts to veto ANYTHING or stand up to a bunch of facists who eat his lunch everyday is why we lost the last election. People lost faith in him because he acts like a skinny little wimp on the playground with bullie’s taking his money. I think that gave people serious doubts about his ability to win or even finish the war and they didn’t support him anymore.
Most of the people who are for McCain or Rudy right now are only there because those are the only two choices presented.
I’ll tell you this right now, If Thompson gets into the race, it will be damn soon before he is the runaway front runner. Fred Thompson is a real conservative and has got more backbone than Bush ever sat in the same room with. He would see hell freeze over before he gave this country over to Mexico. He does not believe in having laws you don’t enforce and making more you don’t plan on enforcing and that is what republicans want! When you hear him speak you know he believes in what he says and he is not just posturing to appeal to the audience that is there. You’re never going to hear this guy fake an accent to appeal to the crowd. When Clinton was being impeached, Thompson was howling that the real problem was Clinton transferring technology to the Chinese and that was a much more important problem than him lying to get out of a sexual harrassment suit. He was right. Personally, I think that’s exactly why Clinton drug that case out as long as he could. It was cleaning real treason off the front pages and making the Republicans look stupid. There is NO democrat who could hold a candle to this guy in a debate and the none of the republican candidates could either. Fred has a talent for cutting right to the heart of the matter and presenting things in such a clear logical way, you can’t dispute it. He does not apologize for his positions and he HAS THE F**KING BALLS TO STAND UP FOR HIS PEOPLE UNLIKE SOME PEOPLE WE KNOW!
I actually like Rudy a lot, but what worries me about him is that he says when it comes to appointing judges, he’ll do the “right thing”. Of the judges that he endorsed, (Thats the measure of the mayors input in New York), they were democrats eight to one! But he want’s me to believe he would appoint a Roberts or Alito or Scalia. I’m not convinced one bit.
McCain is a bitter old man who broke Reagans eleventh commandmant way too much to have a strong following in the republican party.
Hagel? He’s about as republican as Noam Chomsky!
The more the republicans look like Rodney King standing there saying, “Can’t we all just get along” while the democrats are punching them in the teeth, the further down the party will go. Get a spine you pussies!
Hey, everybody … I am having a press conference tomorrow concerning my presidential campaign plans. The press conference will be in Maui. Note that *I* won’t be in Maui but will be teleconferencing at my end from a local Kinkos. But … the other end of the conference will be in Maui so for all those reports sitting in Nebraska … hurry up and make your reservations now, I am sure seats will be going fast on those airliners so don’t delay.
It is easy to sit here on the internet and say Bush does not have guts, it is easy to second guess all his decisions about firing Rumsfeld etc, but I do not know you people. I don’t know if you have backbones at all much less backbones of steel. I do know that Bush has had to get out there every day for years and face almost unrelenting hostility and fight for everything he has gotten done.
Personally I think some of this stuff is just tacky. After all when will of any of us be tested this way?
I tell you what, if you guys are so tough…go run.
And you know something? I like Fred Thompson, but just because you like the guy on Law and Order does not mean he has more guts than Bush. Believe it or not the bad guys he faces on that show are actors.
And Bikerkon:
The Republicans in Congress lost their last election, Bush won his. Blaming that all on Bush is just wishful thinking, it is just something Republicans are doing so that they can avoid facing the reality of the situation.
The idea that if someone in the White House just yelled at the Democrats and the press more they would respond by rolling over is really naive.
It is easy to sit here on the internet and say Bush does not have guts
You know why that is so easy Terrye, because there is so much evidence of it all over the internet. Don’t act like I’m the only one who thinks so. That opinion has been growing like a weed for a long time now. And by the way, “Everything he has gotten done, you mean like signing every single big spending bill that comes across his desk? Letting TED KENNEDY write major program bills and just putting his rubber stamp on them. OH YEAH, THAT”S BRAVERY BUDDIE, GIVE US MORE OF THAT CRAP!!!!!!!!!! He fired Rumsfeld? I’m sure that’s news to him and Rumsfeld both! I liked Rumsfeld but I didn’t think he was right in trying to garrison a country the size of California with a pint size army. And I’ve been there so don’t give me that I don’t know what I’m talking about crap.
Got news for you Terrye, I HAVE NEVER, EVER SEEN ONE DAMNED EPISODE OF LAW AND ORDER! I never even knew Fred Thompson was ever on the show till I saw it on a blog earlier today! I don’t have any interest in TV soap operas. Actually, I wanted him to run instead of Bush in 2000. Here again, you are making statements about which you know NOTHING!
Another thing, I spent 22 years in the military and I did some time in war zones and I have seen action, and while I don’t think that’s much of a big deal, you sure as hell can’t say that I didn’t do my part.
Why is it always such an afront to you “moderates” when the rest of us supposed extreme right wingers start talking about getting some guts. Bush has been bitch-slapped by the democrats over and over and over and over and the reason why is because they know THEY CAN GET AWAY WITH IT! He has tried over and over again to appeal to the better side of the democrats to “get along” and they have just pissed all over him for it to the detriment of him and worse to the danger of the country! He should have put his foot down and said enough is enough.
I don’t know if you have noticed lately, but politics in America is not a gentlemans sport anymore. When you have Libby going to prison for doing his job and Berger walking free after stealing national security documents, it is time that we started getting a little more serious about confronting what is become a real danger. These democrats would have us all in prison if they could. This whole notion about trying to win over the middle all the time plays right into the democrats hands. If the middle sees no clear difference between the two parties, they will lose interest in voting.
Donald Rumsfeld was good! What sunk Bush on Iraq, and will do so more in the future, as you see the manipulating hand of James Baker, is that BUSH IS THE REALTOR FOR THE HOUSE OF SAUD.
So far? Except for grabbing Halliburton to Dubai, I don’t think the sunni/saudi’s are doing all that well, yet. And, NOBODY in the Mideast trusts them! Sorry to bust yer bubbles.
While we’re back to the “square” diplomatic pants dancers, because Bush plunged in over his head.
HOWEVER, Maliki, who walked out on Bush! From the Jordan meeting where the saudi plan was floated … trying to lasso Israel’s lands for the Saudis as some kind of compensation prize … What you really see is STALLING.
Diplomats do not say NO! It seems it’s the “N” word. And, you know how you’ve learned to to say it, haven’t you? Only it’s NO. They are not allowed to say anything in public that would get any particular country blamed for anything. And, Bush is way too dumb to do much, anymore. Except? Perhaps harm others in the GOP.
On the other hand? I don’t see Guiliani making the mistake of taking any position now popular in the White House. He seems to have the machinery in place. And, is IS running! (I thought he couldn’t get over the hump of not challenging Hilllary for her senate seat. But he was smart. The GOP in New York State SUCKS. He stayed away from it like the plague. And, he’s not alone in building his machine.)
Heck, even Reagan had a TEAM. And, getting elected into the presidency is very dependent on TEAM WORK.
One of the things you learn from history is that Lincoln embraced his opponents. And, pulled all his rivals, in the GOP, into his cabinet. It went a long way in healing what would have ruptured. At a time when rupture was a very real possibility. Given the whole reason FOR the Civil War was the south’s pulling out of the union. THAT. WAS. IT!
Lincoln saw the union wouldn’t survive “divided.” And, he had to contend, too, with “border states.” Meaning states that also had slavery. But did not pull out of the Union. 4 long years. But an amazing learning curve. For the country. As well as for Lincoln.
Here? Six years, and watching a man still so light in his loafers he’s just a disaster. Who, like his dad, will go home. And, not get rated well.
While in Iraq? There’s pressure on to work with General Patreaus. If you think the saudi’s are winning there you’re nuts.
But the diplomatic pants dancers still have a tent full of Saudis full of resentments. And, Prince Bandar is going after Bush with hammer, tongs, and knives. Who knew tents had so many rooms?
By the way Terrye, and AJ, this is to you too. Who are all of the ‘Moderate’ republicans who are for Rudy and McCain? Where are the long time loyal republican pundits and commentators, party members who are for all of this moderate movement? Other than Bigfoot Micheal Medved, can you cite a few names of people who espouse this, “We want to win, but we don’t want to fight” point of view?
The only thing worse than not knowing how to fight to win is not knowing you’re in a fight to begin with.
They play hardball, we play marbles.
Yes, it is easy to SEE Bush’s mistakes! We’re a week or so past the Libby verdict. Which came down the pike because the DC crowd hates the guy in the White House. And, this was their piniatta. Not a big deal?
Why is Bush trying out the old Saud plan in the Mideast? NOBODY IS BUYING IT! But there ya go. James Baker tells the boy in the Oval Office what do do. And, orders from Riyadh are accepted. Expect them to fail.
The next thing you know, Harriet Miers, now gone, has her name popping out of AG Gonzalez’ hat. As if he was ever a good hire! But he sure stayed on board Bush’s train! Maybe, all you need to be is light in your loafers? Oh. And, polite.
While with only a one seat difference in the senate you’d think the dems were on a juggernaut. While ALL the candidates running for president are giving Bush a mile wide separation fence.
Yes, I think Guiliani has the machinery in place, he needs, to win. And, since Schwartzenegger pushed California’s primary up to next February 5th, or 6th; there will be 20 states making primary picks. Which definitely puts the MAINSTREAM IN PLAY.
Even if you watch McCain, you can see him shying away from conservatives. Seems it isn’t a pretty good bet, anymore, catering to them, huh?
And, you’re surprised.
Surprised enough to read a good book on politics? Amazon has 8 ways to Run the Country. Brian Patrick Mitchell. A primer on American politics. Looks at the big picture. From left to right.
Bush was lucky. So was Gore. No-talent men who grabbed the nominations of their party. Ditto, Kerry. But Kerry LOST. So did McGovern. It seems every time the donks run a candidate that really really pleases their base, they go nowhere. Or in McGovern’s case? He even lost his home state. That’s pretty hard to do in politics; if you know anything about political machinery. Gore also lost Tennessee in 2000.
Lots of people like to count the same chickens over and over again. But it’s not the same as counting eggs. Buy your own decoder ring.
Winston Churchill or Neville Chamberlin? What’s it gonna be?
I agree — DubiousD makes some good points, although I do think compromise is necessary at times and can be done without being weakened (“win-win” is the cliche). In many instances, Bush has been his own worst enemy or at least propelled his adversaries when he should have gotten out in front of news cycles to preclude the media damage. DubiousD gives some good examples. And this circles back to AJ’s incorrect post on the “far right” causing the repubs to lose both houses. It was Bush/Iraq low poll numbers and a disheartened electorate (many in the middle and conservatives) weary over … all of it. In fact, many of the “far right” positions are majority positions — a strong national defense and staying on offense against the GWOT, real border security and comprehensive immigration reform, conservative & competent judges (competency & forcing diversity is what got Meirs), fiscal constraint (where’s that veto Mr. Bush?), liberty, dignity of life, etc. .. (see Macker’s list).
AJ’s point about the middle is obvious. But the important point is that conservative positions (most) are positions the middle supports. So why waffle & wobble & hedge & parse? Proclaim your positions loud & clear, and stick to your guns (within reason) and you(/we) will be rewarded with election victories.
As far as the candidates, I’m OK with Rudy & Romney, but definitely not McCain (anyone who pushed thru McCain-Feingold has a screw loose — and why didn’t Bush veto this garbage?). I like Thompson a lot, I just don’t know enough about him yet, and to a lesser extent same with Duncan Hunter (although he’s a long shot).
Biker Ken, both men are dead. And, England’s in the toilet.
And, not the only country with lackluster talent at the top.
In case you haven’t noticed. Whose more popular? Olmert or Bush? (Olmert has fewer people to please. And, yet, he, too, is not popular.)
They say in business, there is risk. Bet wrong. Lose money. And, have less capital for your future moves.
Bush’s main loss is that he has an attitude he can do what he wants. he ignores the polls. And, that’s the problem. He refuses to learn a thing.
To think that the newspapers are rehashing Harriet Miers! And, her recommendations, should really, really give a lot of you pause.
As to “fight” … Winston Churchill spoke the truth, and spent almost twenty years out of public service. It was only his columns that brought him back “in.” And, then things were pretty desperate.
Ronald Reagan, by the way, wrote a lot of his own stuff. And, made contacts around America, almost one person at a time. He worked very hard. But for some reason made it look easy.
There’s more to perceptions than you know.
And, politics is complicated. It’s complicated because there is no such thing as a single menu you can use to sell everybody the same porridge. The talent goes to the man who can LEAD.
If you think Bush is a “leader” good luck to ya.
I just hope he gets out of the way of others in the GOP. Because the Bush disaster has ramifications, if Mr. Light In His Loafers stops giving the headline advantages to the press.
Will Bush get beat up? It’s gonna be so pathetic. Like whipping a misbehaving puppy. Who can’t understand why you’re rolling up the newspapers. SIX YEARS! The dude in the Oval Office hasn’t learned a single thing since 2000. It’s almost amazing.
At least algore found a gig. Where he’s pocketing multi-millions of dollars. And, he, too, is a very big idiot. But not IN the Oval Office! Where the harms to the GOP abound. It’s not even a matter of the “base” anymore. It’s the mainstream that finds the whole conservative ding-a-ling thing pathetic.
Next time? Good luck. But you’re way better off with a better spokes-person. And? MONEY. You can’t win without the machinery of politics loaded with talented people working their hearts out for you to get elected. McCain has shed folks. But Guiliani keeps growing more and more friends, daily. He’s got an operating machine. And, nobody is gonna stop an express to pick up stragglers.
Bush’s next mistake. There may be one or two supreme court seats that will open up, ahead. If Bush were smart? He’d aim at putting someone in like Alex Kozinski. NOT one from the rabid right list. I doubt Bush has the popularity to do much, though.
Since O’Connor would come back, and stay seated, WHILE THE CLOCK RUNS OUT.
Of course, it depends on the levels of incompetency already demonstrated by Bush. And, his lackluster team. (Plus? AG Gonzalez keeps hoping to be “the first Hispanic” nominated to the bench.)
On the other hand? AG Gonzalez is getting pulverized, now. And, this attack won’t stop. Because it is something the dems, themselves, want to keep on using. Whether they get anywhere with it or not. It’s not abouat goals. It’s about RUNNING OUT THE CLOCK.
Sure. It would then pit GOP candidates against each other; “naming” who’d they’d name, once elected. Or doing something that allows them to punt the ball.
But it’s worth considering. How the playing field will shape up ahead. With what Rumsfelt called the “unkown unknowns.” Bush was forced to give up a good player; who didn’t get replaced with much in Gates.
And, to win? You need top guys. Not bench retreads.
While in Iraq, the major worry is James Baker trying to push things to favor the Saud’s. Mean stuff. The arabs, for all their weaknesses, aren’t pushovers. And, worse still, putin is still there, stronger than ever. Go figa.