Mar 19 2007
Jeff Jacoby Explodes Immigration Myths
I pointed out in an earlier post the simple, hard math that this country doesn’t have the law enforcement and incarceration facilities to handle 20% of the immigration population (supposing the immigrant crime rate is much higher than our national average) because that is equal to our entire, current prison inmate population. Today Jeff Jocaby knocks down other quaint and fantasiful myths about immigration and where we should be focused (it is either terrorism or immigrants – we cannot do both):
According to a new Gallup poll, when asked to choose among three options — deporting all illegal immigrants, allowing them to remain temporarily in the United States to work, or allowing them to stay permanently and become US citizens after meeting certain conditions — a majority, 59 percent, chose permanent legalization. Fifteen percent favored the temporary-worker option. Just 24 percent supported deportation.
74-24%, or 3-1. Talk about being on the losing end of an issue. Those who are still in denial that the Reps lost the Congress because there was a groundswell against them need to wake up. Bush is responsible for the Iraq war – Congress was responsible for punting on immigration and crowing about it. 3-1. And these numbers are simply solidifying against the fence-only, no-guest-worker-program hard right. This debate is over and now the question is will the right ride their stubborness into long term political oblivian. Jocaby focuses on why recent efforts to close down the border have actually made the immigration problem worse:
“Between 1986 and 2002 the number of Border Patrol officers tripled,” notes Princeton sociologist Douglas Massey, an expert on Mexican migration, “and the number of hours they spent patrolling the borders . . . grew by a factor of about eight.”
Yet driving up the risks and costs of crossing the border hasn’t shrunk the number of illegal immigrants crossing the border — only the number prepared to run that gauntlet more than once. Historically, Mexican migrants came to the United States sporadically, working for a while, then heading home. Now, millions figure it is better to stay put and risk deportation than to go back to Mexico and risk being unable to return. In 1986, the probability that an illegal entering from Mexico would leave within 12 months was around 45 percent. Today it is half that.
Transient workers are good for our economy, but we need them to feel like they can go home. The problem is not the immigrant worker, it is the number some bureacrat pulled out of his backside to determine how many jobs we will give documentation out for – not how many we have to fill:
The United States creates more than 400,000 new low-skill jobs each year, a tremendous employment magnet for hundreds of thousands of foreign workers. But because US law authorizes only 5,000 visas annually for low-skilled immigrants, there is no lawful way for most of the workers we need to enter the country. So they enter unlawfully — a wrongful act, perhaps, but hardly an evil one.
Some crimes are indisputably wrong acts. It is wrong to kill, rob, etc. But some crimes are made up crimes because someone drew a number out of the air and said everyone after this number is a criminal. There is no difference in intent or impact between the 1st documented worker, the 5,000th, or the first undocumented worker (5,001). None.
But wroker 5001 is supposedly an evil criminal. Anyone saying that is no different from some liberal saying people who make over $100,000 are evil, greedy bastards. It is not right or accurate and reflects a simplistic view wrapped around a preconceived bias rationalized by an arbitrary number. But somehow that 100,000th or 1 millionth dollar is all it takes to go from a hard working, middle class person to the devil incarnate. The hard right on immigration use the exact, same ‘logic’.
I still believe we either enforce the law 100% or change the law. And you can enforce if you want to. But it would take time.
And if we can’t enforce the law, we should just forget it as a civilization.
For those interested:
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=26875
“Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States? Should the government:
– deport all illegal immigrants back to their home country
– allow illegal immigrants to remain in the United States in order to work, but only for a limited amount of time
– or allow illegal immigrants to remain in the United States and become U.S. citizens, but only if they meet certain requirements over a period of time
***
Yes, immigration was one of the issues that sunk the GOP last November. But Bush bears at least partial responsibility for playing goad-the-bear… um, elephant. The smart move would have been for Bush to focus only on increasing border enforcement and, yes, building a security wall.
I don’t lie awake nights worrying that some Mexican might sneak across the border and get a job blowing leaves off my lawn. I strongly suspect most other Americans don’t either. But I am greatly concerned about terrorists, drug cartels, and organized crime gangs like MS-13 sneaking across the border.
Some statistics from “A Line in the Sand: Confronting the Threat at the Southwest Border” from the House Committe on Homeland Security (Michael T. McCaul, chairman):
“During 2005, Border Patrol apprehended approximately 1.2 million illegal aliens; of those 165,000 were from countries other than Mexico. Of the non-Mexican aliens, approximately 650 were from special interest countries. Special interest countries are those “designated by the intelligence community as countries that could export individuals that could bring harm to our country in the way of terrorism. (p. 3-4)”
“Federal law enforcement estimates that 10 percent to 30 percent of illegal aliens are actually apprehended…” (p. 4) meaning that if 650 illegals from “special interest countries” were apprehended then anywhere from 1500 to 5800 (roughly) made it across the border undetected.
Now let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that only 5% of those “special interest” aliens have any criminal enterprise in mind. That’s over 70 potential terrorists at best, and close to 300 at worst. Trivia question, sports fans: how many terrorists does it take to destroy the World Trade Center? Answer: a heck of a lot less than 300.
“Members of Hezbollah have already entered the United States across the Southwest border.
“U.S. military and intelligence officials believe that Venezuela is emerging as a potential hub of terrorism in the Western Hemisphere. The Venezuelan government is issuing identity documents that could subsequently be used to obtain a U.S. visa and enter the country.” (p. 5-6)
“Since September 11, 2001, DHS has reported a 41% increase in arrests along the Texas/Mexico border of Special Interest Aliens. “(p. 28)
“Since September 11, 2001 to the present hundreds of illegal aliens from special interest countries (such as Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Pakistan, Cuba, Brazil, Ecuador, China, Russia, Yemen, Albania, Yugoslavia and Afghanistan) were apprehended within the South Texas region alone.” (p. 29)
“Just recently, U.S.intelligence officials report that seven Iraqis were found in Brownsville, Texas in June 2006. In August 2006, an Afghani man was found swimming across the Rio Grande River in Hidalgo, Texas…” (p. 29)
“Members of Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based terrorist organization, have already entered to the United States across our Southwest border. On March 1, 2005, Mahmoud Youssef Kourani pleaded guilty to providing material support to Hezbollah. Kourani is an illegal alien who had been smuggled across the U.S.-Mexico border after bribing a Mexican consular official in Beirut for a visa to travel to Mexico. Kourani and a Middle Eastern traveling partner then paid coyotes in Mexico to guide them into the United States. Kourani established residence among the Lebanese expatriate community in Dearborn, Michigan and began soliciting funds for Hezbollah terrorists back home in Lebanon. He is the brother of the Hezbollah chief of military operations in southern Lebanon. “(p. 30-31)
“In December 2002, Salim Boughader Mucharrafille, a café owner in Tijuana, Mexico, was arrested for illegally smuggling more than two hundred Lebanese illegally into the United States, including several believed to have terrorist ties to Hezbollah. Just last month Robert L. Boatwright, Assistant Chief Patrol Agent of the El Paso Texas Sector, reported, “We have apprehended people from countries that support terrorism…they were thoroughly debriefed and there was a tremendous amount of information collected from them.†(p. 31)
THIS is the real concern, not some guy with Hector with no papers on him suddenly getting a job at my local car wash. Now if Bush had presented a tough face on border security for terrorists sake, IMHO a lot of the rabid anti-immigrants would have backed off. Throw them a bone, but for God’s sake don’t get them heated up by talking legalization. WHY?
AJ doesn’t realize it, but he precisely makes the case why we *shouldn’t* be talking legalization right now. We don’t have the manpower to deport illegals even if we wanted to. Therefore, for the large part, they’re not going anywhere. They’re not being shipped in boxcars back to Tijuana. Therefore there’s no need for a sudden, humanitarian intervention right now. So let the sleeping dog lie.
I’m reminded of an old Dennis Prager quote: “Don’t be dead right.” The light is green, you have the right of way. But another car just went through the red light. Yes, he shouldn’t be there and yes it’s your turn to go. But hit the brakes anyway, because if you go forward, you will still have the right of way… and you will be very dead.
Even if Bush had “right of way” in this instance, now was not the time to floor it, because other Republicans were cutting through the red light. A smart driver hits the brakes. Bush floored it.
DubiousD,
Bush did give on the Fence only – he signed it.
If the Reps want control again the hard right will have to give. There is no other option. None.
PMII,
The hard right’s fantasies on ‘civilization’ never were reality. Chicken Littles cannot lead a governing majority. Change or remain the minority and powerless. That’s the answer and if the far right want a say they will give up. If they don’t give up they don’t have a say. Either way, they will never get their way on immigration.
I have to ask PMII, then: What if it turns out that the law has bitten off more than it can possibly chew?
*most* of the Mexican immigrants would go home in the *off* season if they could travel freely back and forth. The immigrants from further South will never be stopped even with a fence. They have already come thousands of miles, are risking their very lives and often the lives of their familes to get here. They will find tunnels or dig them themselves or take even greter risk with their lives. Those people are going to find a way in one way or another, they have risked everything, they have nothing to use. A fence also won’t stop terrorists. They will also find a different way. Probably Canada.
The numbers are pretty much telling us all we need to know. There are MILLIONS of them here and our unemployment rate is only 4.5%. When I took college economics in the 1980’s, 5% unemployment was described as “full employment”. Any lower and and employers have to start bidding against each other for labor and it causes wages to rise which pushes unemployment up. Employment needs to be in the range of 4.5 to 5.5 percent to be sustainable over the long haul. If we begin a mass deportation of working age people, we are going to see it hit our economy.
Over the next 20 years, over 30% of our workforce is set to retire. The first of the boomers (those born in 1946) started to retire in 2001 when they reached 55. They are set to start retiring in droves in 2011 (four years from now) when they turn 65.
The above according to an article on CFO.com a year ago.
Our mainstream attitudes towards immigrants and jobs is a product of a completely different economic landscape than the one we face today. In the late 1960’s and 1970’s, boomers were entering the job markets in droves as they graduated from college or exited military service. This caused a huge strain on our economy as the largest generation we had ever seen dumped into the job market. Unemployment exploded in only a decade.
In 5 or 6 years we are going to be seeing an opposite problem. Companies are going to be BEGGING for people to stay on after retirement age. Looking at the above article … by 2020, 1/5 of America’s workforce will be collecting a monthly government check deducted from the paychecks of the people who are left working. The entire boomer generation (1/3 of our workforce) won’t reach retirement age until 2029. By then things could be a full blown crisis if we don’t get additional workers into the system to replace them. The current native generation in the pipeline isn’t as big as the boomer generation.
The sad thing is that people will not understand it until it is too late and then it will be a crisis and we will have “emergency” legislation that will be passed without thought and only after many have suffered. We should be planning for this *now* and immigrants are one part a possible solution.
“they have nothing to use. ” Arrg! “nothing to lose”
“which pushes unemployment up.”
Thats what I get for typing while trying to work … should be “pushes inflation up”
yeah…
and we should give them the southern states as a bonus, no?
ridiculous!
Dbostan:
No one said anything like that.
I think things were better when we had the old Bracero program. People would come and work and then leave. But the unions killed that.
Dboston,
You are a great example of why no one takes the hard right seriously anymore. If the answer from the far right are simply ludicrous rhetoric don’t be surprised if we all simply shorten that to ludicrous.
But the immigration far right are now the minority by 3-1. 74-24. The more ludicrous the comments the more cemented those numbers become. Which is all just fine with me!
I would guess that a large majority of people who hold such a harsh view of foreign laborers are boomers who experianced the harsh unemploment conditions of the 70’s. Those days are gone.
Border control and terrorism are the same thing. In 86 we were told this would be a 1 time amnesty program, unfortunately we never did fix the real problem THE BORDER . Until the main problem is resolve we render ourselfs to another attack. As far as the 12- 20 million that are here now it would be insane to try and round them up
and bus them out, but if they don’t try and assimilate as my parents did when the came to America then I say boot them out.
Again, only 50% of illegals cross illegally. The other 50% cross legitimately and stay simply stay here. Shutting the border 100% tight only addresses 50% of the increase and doesn’t do a thing to address those already here. So if we spent billions on a 100% foolproof border fence, we would slow the GROWTH if illegals here by 50% and it still would not address the problem. Besides, the terrorists would then just cross the Canadian border (most probably already do). Someone coming from halfway around the world isn’t going to care if they enter via Mexico or via Canada. Chances are they are going to come right through a legitmate crossing with fake paperwork anyway so no fence of any sort is going to stop them.
It would be just a big waste of time and money and not fix a thing. But … by golly we would have a bright shiny new fence!
Let me see if I have this straight:
Those of us who see the fact that we have some 12 million or more illegals in the country and who see that as a problem and one we should not allow to grow exponentially, we are the “Far Right”.
Those of us who have been yelling about Bush not fighting the Democrats with their phony scandals and standing up for his people as they get taken out with crooked prosecuters, crooked judges, and “moderate” jurors, we are the “Far Right”.
You know AJ, as far as I can see, most republicans including pundits, bloggers, voters and politicians are apparantly far right in your point of view. You, who do not even claim the label republican, claim to be the conservative centrist but not part of the republican party, yet you few moderates, libertarians, what have you, know how the republican party can grow stronger, by becoming more moderate and libertarian. I’m trying to think of the last presidential election the libertarians won………oh, none! So you think Ted Kennedy writing immigration and education legislation while the president sings his praises is some kind of perfect scenario? Looks like craziness to me! Ted Kennedy is the farthest left extreme liberal wacko that there is. But you think if we really be nice to him, that will make things much better. That’s like trying to pet a rattlesnake. Hmmmm, makes me wonder..
The debate is far from over, it hasn’t even gotten up a head of steam yet.
Reply,
I don’t care how any legals are allowed in – don’t care at all.
But if illegals couldn’t work and couldn’t get free everything – they wouldn’t come. This shouldn’t be a difficult task. Years of doing nothing put us in this spot.
Finally, since we can’t stop illegals and we can’t stop drugs, why or how is it possible to stop a terrorist. It’s just a matter of what/who gets hit and when…..
Crosspatch as a small employer (25people) any time I hire a new employee they must have a S.S. card and a Florida residency card
or they can hit the door. As far as securing the borders it is the most important thing we can do to try and secure this great nation or we will pay the price.
Bikerken:
I disagree. I would say that the immigration hardliners did a pretty good job of shooting themselves in the foot on this issue.
One of the people pushing this the hardest was Mickey Kaus, who just happens to be a Democrat. I think Democrats used this and a lot of Republicans have not figured that out yet.
BTW, a lot of right wing pundits have not exactly been helpful. Peggy Noonan was saying Republicans needed to lose. Buckley and Will have not exactly been strong on the WOT, Kristol hated Rumsfeld more than Kennedy did, and Krauthammer went after Miers and Gonzales. And if Novak had just kept a lid on it Libby would not be facing jail time now. So saying that the right wing pundits don’t agree with AJ on this issue is not exactly something he needs to be ashamed of.
AMA:
Every single one of the men flying those planes on 9/11 came into the country legally.
And no one is saying we do not need to secure the border. Too often people who are hardliners think they are the only ones who want to secure that border, they assume that any deviation from their personal views on this particular issue in any way means that the rest of us just want to give away the southwest and open the borders.
That is not true. And saying it over and over again like a demagogue will not make it true.