Mar 31 2007
Iran Begins Trial Proceedinga On Hostages
Iran continues to beg for armed conflict over the hostage situation. Now they have started to legal proceedings against those THEY kidnapped. This means one of two things in my mind. The Iranians have some surprise response ready for any military action the UK or US may make. Or they honestly believe the US and UK can be blackmailed or extorted into surrendering. The Iranians would have to be stark raving lunatics to believe the latter. And they would have to be ready to martyr their nation under a hail of military response if the were heading down the former path. The saber rattling has lost any and all PR value for Iran right now. So something else is driving this mad scheme of theirs. Or will Syria come to the world’s rescue at the last minute, with a certain Liberal Democrat smiling at their side? I guess I can envision three options.
Well, what did you expect them to do?
As to what Bush decides to do, it’s either one thing. Or, another.
Either he gives the go-ahead SOON, for the ships at sea to deliver “a message” to the seething iranians. Or he doesn’t.
PLACE YOUR BETS.
BUY YOUR POPCORN.
Since I don’t think Bush cares one whit for being compared to Jimmy Carter, he will choose to do something that doesn’t look “peaceful.” Oh. And, makes pelosi crap into her pants.
On her trip to damascus? I hope she’s outfitted in NASA strength Depends.
Of course. I could be wrong.
It’s possible the pentagon cut the phone lines that would link Bush to the fighting forces out at sea. In the Gulf. Now? What would Bush do if his orders weren’t followed?
Because that’s the impediment. Why is Bush still waiting? We’ve got an aircraft carrier due to arrive in the Gulf over the next few days.
Sure. The DeGaulle is out there; just waiting to “interfere.” And, you have Blair, also, making faces at the cameras.
But in the end? Like in the last reel of a cowboy movie … You get the idea. Bush takes “some” action. And, the media screams. They might as well also run under their seats.
What will “action in the Gulf” actually do? Well, if it’s done right, the iranians will lose what little they have in terms of a “navy.”
Sure. They’ll still patrol for kidnappings. But they ran into trouble with this one, when they tried it on the Americans. And, for some reason, we also have no information about what the Americans staved off. But the Brits didn’t.
With the Brits? It was just a test. I bet Bush just shrugs. What other choice is there? To appear like Jimmy Carter?
When our navy goes “operative” it’s not going to be a “small thing.” And, if Bush hasn’t learned, yet, about arabs; they’re very capable of running into their tents. Where they shake a lot. And, then come out and root for whomever was “the winnah.” Maybe, we should begin humming the theme from Rocky?
The first night of Passover is April 2nd.
Of course, there’s all the stuff we do on April 1st which we could label “fooled ya.”
Are there real dangers lurking in the Gulf? Or is it possible to “change the equation?”
Because? For our navy and air force to be effective, they MUST, by definition, ride right into iranian “waters.”
Could the iranians then use the British hostages?
That’s probably out there being analyzed right now.
But IF this was the idea behind the “weaker hand” being better; I think Bush would plow through the situation by making iran’s hand untenable.
How? By upping the ante. At some point? Oddly enough, we know last summer the IDF didn’t make a dent in Nasrallah. Instead? Diplomacy was tried. And, tried, again.
What if Bush intends to reverse this course? He could use a show of force that would stop the iranian terrorists from continuously oppressing the iranian people. Who haven’t climbed on board the leading nut’s train.
Some things actually do fall apart when you use lots of force.
PATTON TAUGHT THAT ONE! Because? As soon as Patton and his men crossed the Rhine, you couldn’t find a single nazi in germany. They all just disappeared.
But you won’t get there with “diplomacy.” ONLY WAY IS TO DO BATTLE.
Or, for Bush to do nothing. And, “hope” for the best.
If I had to guess? I think one of the reasons Bush is “playing dead” with Congress, is that he doesn’t want to tip his hand “early.” Once he begins to play, however, it could be earth-shaking. And, he “could” retrieve his faultering presidency from what we’ve been viewing as “innept.” While the best course? Bush is just demonstrating patience.
By the way, Israel learned the hard way that her hostages never came back. All three men are probably dead. But the truth? It doesn’t fall out into the open, because the arabs still try to deal in prisoner “swaps.”
The 15 British hostages, in fact, may be lost? There’s really no way to get them back. Unless you want dishonest diplomatic pants dancers, attempting to find out “what they are worth.” And, IF they can handle the ransom money. Because? They profit from taking a hefty fee.
It’s probably part of the mess. Until the arabs learn it isn’t worth it.
If all of iran’s access to water is taken away; the arabs may learn a thing or two about American commitment to MIGHT.
Again, Bush’s presidency is now riding on this stuff. And, these outcomes. Nope. I’m not going to bet against Bush, here. But if nothing happens by the end of next week? The presidency takes a bath.
I am not sure these people are thinking at all. I think they are just doing. I don’t know, maybe they think that North Korea has been showing their butts for a half century and they are still there…so there is some value in acting crazy.
If they start hanging people…I don’t know what might happen. But then again I would not be a bit surprised if Pelosi did not make some promises to Assad in the hopes he will get the Iranians to turn the sailors lose. Who knows? But Pelosi’s authority does not go as far as those folks might think.
AJ, have you read the article at the BBC today? The bastards are [seemingly] making apologies for Iran. My God, how far will these people go when 15 of their own are being held hostage by Iran?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6507451.stm
I thought it was just the United States the BBC hated. It seems their hatred extends to their own nation.
Things are really heating up now … the UK sent Iran (wait for it ) … A NOTE!
Perhaps, like most of the progressive set, they actually believe what they read in the antique media about the US. Maybe the NYT, WaPo, LATimes, CNN, etc are actually doing the US a big favor with their dis-information campaign. After all, it takes time for our destroyers to steam all the way over to the persion gulf. Maybe you noticed that generals with a lot of experience in ari campaigns have recently be rotated into the MidEast headquarters in Dubai?
Crosspatch,
That is the British way! and for now being gentle will keep the soldiers alive. If the UK were to attack Iran we would never see them again. (and as has been said we are now 3rd rate and cannot anyway)
I hope that British diplomacy will release these young soldiers , but afterwards I hope the Americans will do their job and ensure that Iran NEVER gets nuclear capability by any means.
hostages? perhaps human shields might be more appropriate.
but afterwards I hope the Americans will do their job and ensure that Iran NEVER gets nuclear capability by any means.??
Tempester, I’m assuming your British, but I’m a little curious here, why is it Americas job to keep Iran from getting nucs? I will totally agree that it needs to be done, but why our job? Shouldn’t the entire European community not to mention the rest of the world have an urgent interest in stopping any radical country from getting nucs. I’ll tell why this bugs me. If we were to actually do something like taking action to bomb nuc sites or enact some kind of real severe sanctions, the entire EU would be criticizing us for doing it and at the same time be privately thanking god that we did it! This brings up the old question of should the US be the “World Policeman”. We have that argument here all of the time. I think we have an obligation just like a teenager around a bunch of young children, when one starts bullying the others, you have an obligation to put a stop to it. To sit there and say, there not my kids is an abdication of social responsibility.
I think that it is a disaster that the British military has become a shcll of it’s former self. That a country could go so many hundreds of years with such a strong world presence and sink to where it is now, is a prime example of how liberalism can take down a nation. The US is following right in it’s footsteps. Our military is about less than half of what it should be and if a real big war were to break out, we would be caught flat footed. Nucs can’t replace boots on the ground. Overall, the world picture looks like this, the strong great nations that have tried to do good in the world are tearing down their armies while the more aggresive nations are building up theirs. Then you have radical theocratic countries, using terrorism as a substitute for a military. Not a good scenario.
I wouldn’t be to hopeful of a quick diplomatic resolution to this crisis though, this was a pre-planned operation and thus has a motive behind it. I think those hostages will be in Iran for months unless a secret deal is cut to give the Iranians something they really want. Diplomacy is simply a weakness when dealing with tryanical madmen.
What do you think about this post I got from over at L.com?
“Reply 64 – Posted by: bropous , 4/1/2007 12:00:58 PM
A summation of developments:
1. The US has TWO Carrier battle groups in the Persin Gulf area already. USS Eisenhower and USS Stennis are already on station, with the inclusion of mine warfare assets and counter-mine warfare assets. THREE US amphibious warfare groups are on station: USS Bataan, USS Boxer, and USS Shreveport. The current concentration of naval vessels in the PG area is at the highest level since the invasion of Iraq.
2. The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its associated support vessels arrived in the PG area of ops on 3/21. Dassault Rafale aircraft have started conducting air-to-ground ops in support of NATO troops in Afghanistan. France may either join an attack on Iran, or just stay concentrated on combat support in Afghnistan, freeing up US assets.
3. Businesses in Bahrain habe been advised to leave. US Patriot AAM batteries have begun to arrive in the nation, 90% of the hotel rooms are booked up with the influx of US military personnel. Civil defense exercises under the scenario of NBC-tipped ballistic missile attack are underway.
4. Israeli and US troops just conducted an ABM-defense exercise in the Negev desert) the Israeli nukes are at Dimona in the Negev.
5. There is a large concentration of NATO and other Eurpoean and US naval vessels in the Eastern Mediterranean.
6. A large-scale wargame is currently being conducted in the Persian Gulf by US forces, and at the same time, the Iranians are conducting wargames.
7. The Russian nuclear technicians at the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr have departed due to economic sanctions keeping the Iranians from paying their debts for the reactor to Putin. Additionally, SA-20 upgrades to the Iranian forces have been put on hold, and delicate calibrations and delivery of “reloads” have also been stymied due to lack of Iranian cash. The much-touted new AAM system provided by the Russians is now on hold.
8. President Bush just labeled the Iranian kidnapping of Britsh Marines (which was to cause a precipitous attack before all assets were in palce) as “inexcusable behavior.”
9. USS Nimitz carrier battle group is departing Hawaii for the Persian Gulf area, ostensibly to replace USS Eisenhower on station. Delay of departure will mean three carrier battle groups, and basing rights in Iraq, Afghanistan, Georgia, Kyrghystan, and other nearby areas allow for shirt-range, high-intensity sorties.
10. Western diplomatic corps have been developing “escape plans” from Teheran, to be put into effect when the attack becomes imminent”
Iran wins.
If nothing happens, they put the hostages on trial, Britian does nothing, they win in the world-wide press.
If the US Military gets it orders, and something happens, Iran cuts the throats of the hostages. Bush is blamed, and they win in the world-wide press.
Wrong. They don’t get to keep the nukes…or their mullahs. The “students” are free and another democracy in the ME is given a chance. And the US has another ally.
And the rest of the ME breathes a sigh of relief.