You can tell when al Qaeda is back on its heels in Iraq – it starts making idiotic, desperate moves. This was seen in Ramadi and other areas of Anbar when al Qaeda started killing locals – who rose up against them and allied with the US-Iraq coalition. Anbar is one of two key provinces that will make or break the Surge strategy in the coming months because these were locations where Sunni insurgents allied and covered for al Qaeda terrorists. Anbar is on its way to becoming stable and Iraqi controlled and there are indications Diyala may soon follow.

As The Surge forces build the US is able to position them, with Iraqi forces, to take on these remaining hotbeds of resistence – a majority of the country is relatively peaceful and under Iraqi control. In Diyala the results have been pretty good:

Ambushes similar to the one that struck the Stryker patrol Friday have become routine in Baqubah, the capital of Diyala province and one of the most violent cities in Iraq. As thousands of U.S. and Iraqi soldiers descend on Baghdad, U.S. commanders say, insurgents are moving north into Diyala, a province smaller than Maryland where the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq has waged a brutal campaign of terror.

“The Baghdad security plan is killing American soldiers up here,” one soldier put it.

Over the past five months, enemy tactics have turned squarely against U.S. and Iraqi troops. As sectarian killings and kidnappings have fallen by about 70 percent in Diyala, attacks on U.S. and Iraqi troops have increased by a corresponding amount, according to Col. David W. Sutherland, the top U.S. commander in the province. At least 46 soldiers from his 5,000-member 3rd Brigade Combat Team of the 1st Cavalry Division have been killed since they arrived in November.

No, I don’t expect liberals to see the trend here, but when al Qaeda takes us on toe-to-toe we decimate them. We pay a price, but it is a tenth of the price our enemies pay. And when they have exhausted their fanatics against our forces, and their image as undefeatable Muslim Holy Warriors is shattered, the locals begin to have doubts. And the comes the turn which is the beginnig of the end. When al Qaeda starts destroying the Muslim community they have become desperate to hold onto their control. And it is beginning in Diyala:

Insurgents in Diyala province last week destroyed a newly constructed medical clinic as a warning, Iraqi officials said Monday.

The group targeted the Jalula clinic on Friday. Eight insurgents in two vehicles came to the facility, ordered it emptied of patients and staff, then placed explosives which destroyed the building, Iraqi officials said.

Did that show us or what? Heck, the terrorists even attacked Iranians!

raqi border guards found bodies of five Iranian truck drivers near the city of Khanqin, northeast Baghdad, on Sunday, an Iraqi daily reported Monday.

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he daily quoted an Iraqi border commander as saying that the victims were killed by terrorists in an ambush near Khanqin in Diyala province, 180 km northeast Baghdad.

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The drivers became martyred while transporting fuel for Iraqi people.

The wheels are definitely coming off the al Qaeda juggernaut. The truth is al Qaeda is losing support rapidly in Iraq as this report shows:

he Islamic State appears to have begun its campaign for dominance among armed groups in Iraq more than two months ago. Perhaps motivated by the need to establish dominance on the ground after losing support from locals in Al-Anbar Governorate in recent months, the Islamic State attempted to seize control over areas of Diyala Governorate, including Ba’qubah and surrounding villages. According to some reports by insurgent leaders, the Islamic State sought to drive out insurgent groups that refused to come under its umbrella through a campaign of murder and intimidation. It unleashed a similar wrath on the local population.

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Iraqi insurgent groups opposed to the Islamic State have struggled over the decision to fight the Al-Qaeda affiliated group. Abu Hudhayfah, a leader from the 1920 Revolution Brigades told London-based “Al-Hayat” in a March 31 interview that the Islamic State’s assassination of a prominent Brigades leader last month “left the resistance groups with two options: either fight Al-Qaeda and negotiate with the Americans, or fight the Americans and join the Islamic State of Iraq, which divides Iraq.” He called both options “bitter.”

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Ordinary citizens need little prompting to oppose the violence that the Islamic State has unleashed on Iraq, and their active opposition would be key to driving the Al-Qaeda organization from the country. Just as the leaders in Al-Anbar did, Iraqis in Diyala, where it appears the Islamic State has now headquartered itself, would need to take action. Should they choose to do so, it is clear the Iraqi government would support the initiative as it did in Al-Anbar. Should local leaders be joined by Iraqi insurgent groups, their chances of success would be even greater. Moreover, driving Al-Qaeda from Iraq could be the starting point for reconciliation between the Iraqi government and armed Sunnis.

Are we there yet? Of course not. But we are headed in the right direction and picking up speed. If Diyala turns out al Qaeda and its allies then Baghdad can be peacefully controlled. The violence will never end, but it will become manageable for the Iraqis so we can draw down our forces and focus our efforts elsewhere.