We will need to see how the Rossi case on the 2004 governor’s race plays out before we know what could happen in 2006. If Rossi ends up in the Senate race it is a near lock and Rep pickup (towards the +3 seats I predicted for 2006) as Polipundit illustrated with some recent polling.

57% of believe Dino Rossi won last November; 37% say Christine “Hillary” Gregoire did. However, only 35% say they would support a revote. 58% are opposed. In the event of a revote, Rossi would defeat Gregoire 54%-38%.

But even without Rossi, Cantrell has a fight on her hands.

the junior Senator, Maria Cantwell, has a job approval that is almost as low as her portfolio. 47% approve, and 40% disapprove.

Rassmussen did a poll in March that said about the same thing.

Here is the full Strategic Vision poll linked to by Polipundit.

Note Cantwell is on the cusp (at or below 50%) with two lesser known potential republicans:

13. If the election for United States Senate were held today and the candidates were Jennifer Dunn, the Republican or Maria Cantwell, the Democrat, whom would you vote for?
Jennifer Dunn 40%
Maria Cantwell 50%
Undecided 10%

14. If the election for United States Senate were held today and the candidates were George Nethercutt, the Republican or Maria Cantwell, the Democrat, whom would you vote for?
George Nethercutt 38%
Maria Cantwell 49%
Undecided 13%

A republican poll done in February shows Cantwell is ‘deserving of re-election” by only 41%. with 36% wanting someone new. And in democrat controlled King County those numbers are basically tied.

From the memo: 67% of Dems feel that Cantwell deserves to be reelected, compared to 60% of GOPers who favor a new person. “Additional indications of Cantwell’s vulnerability can be found among newly registered and ‘soft’ voters.” This group traditionally favors Dems over GOPers, among these voters today, a new person is favored 40-32%