May 21 2007
Senate Defeat Of Immigration Bill Now Less Likely
In a classic briar patch move the opposition to the Immigration Bill in the Senate delayed the final votes until after Memorial Day. Someone must of have said “don’t delay this, we need to get this throug” and the opponents believed them. Interestingly enough, this will allow tempers to chill and those overreacting to cement some rejection by the majority of Americans who back the Bill’s provisions. When the new polling is done and they show most people fine with a guest worker program (again) those challenging the Bill will lose the element of surprise and heightened emotion. A weekend of chillin’ with the families will reduce the noise level to a few hardliners and the Bill will pass. And it will also pass the House because House Reps need Bush’s clout to get their pet programs into Bills under the Dem Congress. He will horse-trade to get the 70 Reps he needs to give Pelosi her cover by promising to flex his bully pulpit. Pelosi will negotiate too so she can get something of import passed and enough Reps to cover her with the liberal fringe.. So don’t think the House will stop the Bill either.
Once what little heat from the right dies down to the low level grumbles the Bill will move. And Bush will have his signature domestic issue for his second term (tax cuts, prescription drugs through medicare/medicaid, education reform and stem cell limits being his other successes). Bush is incredibly masterful at politics. He is so far advanced few people grasp and understand how much he has accomplished and his sophistication in dealing with rogue legislatures.
Hey, OT, thought you might be interested, regarding Gonzales:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070522/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush
Think Bush is masterful in politics with his continuing support of Gonzales?
Well, the question remains is what happens when they begin work on the 2008 fiscal year, which includes the defense budget and the war in Iraq against Global Jihadism.
I’m sorry, AJ, I agree with you on most things but I do not know where you get the feeling the passage of this bill is a “slam dunk.”
It is as I predicted, it is the proverbial snowball in hell. Once all Americans see what’s in it, that they’re giving away the store. It got the most votes today that it will ever see and even if it were to pass the Senate, the House will never compromise. Lucky for America that the Representatives have to be a little more sensitive to what the average people want. And that is not unbridled Amnesty for a lot of illegals.
Good move Senate. Keep up the opposition.
,
FE,
Your predictions have a habit of not coming true!
A.J. I think you just saved my sanity in under a minute. Thank you! I believe you are right but I’m not nearly as confident. My husband is your match, confidence wise, and he’d especially agree with your last paragraph describing GWB’s political agility.
Please keep up your immigration posts throughout this ordeal. I’m sending you a donation right now — payment for therapy, really : )
Thanks Sally Vee,
The pols here in DC have lost their minds and their ability to read the public. And it shows. They scramble back and forth on every issue trying to find solid ground – to no avail. The guest worker program is just not seen as evil incarnate in the country. Even in CA there is massive support for it. You cannot scare people by pointing at Casper the Ghost and claiming he is about to get us all…
No credibility and the heat on this issue is coming from the minority who see pending defeat. Clearly confident people don’t rant and rave and scream about all the doom and gloom coming our way. Confident people calmly say they will deal with the issues and succeed. So who looks calm and who looks scared out of their pants?
Bush doesn’t look to concerned. Neither do the supporters. FE is wrong. If forces were lined up to kill this Bill they would have done it on this vote to maximize their victory claims. The power to stop Bush and Kyle and Kennedy in their tracks would have been huge bragging rights. And it would have given those who vanquished the Bill a big seat at the negotiating table.
None of that happened – did it? The vote was not even close – was it? If the people are so ready to dump this thing why is it still alive?? There is a reason which is just not obvious to anyone right now. But it is there and it is powerful. 69 votes for cloture? Sounds like most people want to be for it and not against it.
I have no idea what will happen. I don’t know what polls will show either. I bet if they asked the question, do you wish eveyone would just shut up we might be surprised at the answer. The problem is with something like this there is just no way to please everyone, sometimes I wonder if you can please anyone.
Well, that was an ordeal. Pay “Pal” wasn’t exactly warm and friendly tonight. Anyway, I picked an amount to donate that corresponds to the number of days & nights it took the Lord God to flood the earth, wipe the slate clean and make a brand new start. Seemed fitting.
Reading one of your earlier posts, I also agree that there will be a LOT of Rep posturing & kvetching… for show. Afterall, many including my own House Rep. have backed themselves so far into a corner and up the wall that there isn’t exactly a graceful way to do a turnabout. Well, this is one place where pols excel — slithering out of a tight spot while avoiding individual responsibility. Whatever… I vote “Just Shut Up” in Terrye’s poll.
I think the right needs to understand that the public does not want them to kill the bill, they want them to fix it. But so far, I have only heard about the killing part.
you have much to learn grasshoppers……
i told you last year when you were frantically trying to put lipstick on that last pig it had no chance and i told you three days ago this bill has no chance as it was written. i told you over a year ago what the final bill will look like. it will be a sealed border before anything else is even considered–not the faux enforcement in this and the last bill. you really should read the document. only naive people believe that the government, democratic or republican, will all of a sudden start enforcing new immigration laws. let’s see, we have heard that song and dance since the 60’s. in fact it was kennedy himself that said the 1986 bill would be final resolution. now 15-20 million more illegals later, he cheerfully does his best gilda ratner, “never mind”! perhaps your therapist can help you to understand why you desperately want to believe politicans would do something now that they have never done before in regards to immigration. in fact, they think you are so stupid that the dems cheerfully boasted after november 4th that the 800 miles of fence approved with such fanfare last fall would never get funded or if it did it would never get spent. well i do declare, as someone in gone with the wind would say, seven months later rumor has it that only two miles were built and construction was halted. yes once again our trustworthy government carries out signed law and the will of the people in regards to immigration policy.
step right up folks, jim jones made a living on fools who believed such fairy tales. cool aide anyone?
patrick:
only a naive person would believe that the right will ever do anythng contructive to deal with this problem. after all they had decades to do it. they controlled the house under saint newt gringrich the one true conservative and they did nothing. well that is not true, they bitched. anytime anyone tries to change the status quo they shi=riek and and bellow and say their representatives are part of a conspiracy to destroy the united states of america and everything it stands for. they say that either they get everything they want or they will take their marbles and go home and then when they have done great damage to their own party and president and made the democrats look almost reasonable in comparison they celebrate their ability to kill a bill, offer nothing better that has any hope of passage and then revert to bitching about the status quo. and the years pass and nothing gets better because other than bitching they are not much good at anything. other than heliping the other party win elections.
if you are constantly going to criticize the other guy it helps if you have something better to offer that might actually pass. i know, if we just outlaw other political parties and only allow the one true paleo party to exist then this whole messy annoying compromise thing with its horrid awful deal killing nastiness will jo go away.
resistance is futile
i never thought i would hear myself say this again, but the democrats don’t look half as loony as they did a few days ago. why, they look almost reasonable.
the hard right is doing the same thing to the republicans that the kuccinich branch of the democrats is doing to them. marginalizing them.
You are fairly cunning AJ, I’ll give you that!
First of all, as a person who has spent his whole adult life being an “analyst” of some sort or another, I must say, you’ve violated “Analysis 101”, by falling in Love with your OWN analysis!
You do that often, and I don’t but you about it, because I like your Blog, and I think intrinsically, you are a good guy, with your heart in the right place.
But you do, do it!
On this issue, it is a prime example.
You made some statements, took some positions, have fallen in love with it, and now, you have to defend it, because you’ve painted yourself into a corner.
You were saying this Bill is going to pass, etc., and then I posted the link to show they delayed the bill until the first week of June, at least, and you had to jump right on that, and come back with something that shows it’s all part of the plan, and that your original analysis is correct!
What you’ve done, by doing so, as well, is very clever!
You have at this time, a 50% chance of being correct, the Legislation, STILL could pass, despite the delay.
IF that’s the case, then you look like a genius, and take credit for “predicting” it; you’ve done that often enough.
Ah, but if the Legislation DOESN’T pass; you’ve also, already staked out your “losing” position, by adopting the whole “I’m not a ‘rep’ or ‘purist’, I’m an ‘independent’ and it’s you name-calling right-wing wackos who have destroyed the party and future chances of governing by refusing to kowtow to the Hispanic population with this bill, thus driving them into the arms of the Democratic party, and thus I’m writing you all off….”..schtick!
Very cunning AJ, very cunning…
You’ve set yourself up to be able to say you’ve “won” the argument, regardless of the outcome!
Well played…..
Dale,
I grew up in DC. There are aspects of how things work here that are not known or obvious to many. You seem to have a handle on this, but what I wrote to Sally Vee still pertains. The 69-23 vote to keep the Bill alive is indicative of the forces aligned against the Bill. They are NOT that strong. And if the emotion dies down on this over the weekend the resistance forces will be weakened further.
Check out my comment above to Sally Vee. The OPTIMAL time for killing this was now. Those who rose in opposition would gain immense political clout to shape the next round. But that did not happen.
Why? Because no GOP Sen or Rep can afford to not have Bush on his side for the rest of the session. Bush is the only one wielding the veto pen to force compromise. Bush is the only one who can negotiate for GOP causes outside this topic.
And so what we have is political theatre. Those few are will oppose this at any cost are the 23 Senators. The rest seem ready to trade. And those are filibuster proof numbers. I am not wedded to anything. The so called opposition should have taken this down last night. They did not. So something is going on. You can disagree, but you cannot claim any other explanations are resoundly more plausible.
Watch yourseld Patrick,
Call me a fool on my site and off you go.
AJ: I understand, I’m not criticizing you by the way, I was actually impressed how you did that, very clever!
I know you’ve said you’ve grown up in DC, somone mentioned you lived in Herndon by the way?
I’ve lived in Herndon, several times; for awhile in ’94, then again from ’96 – 99.
My brother and his partner have been running a Catering firm there, for the past 20+ years, and have a place out in Bluemont as well!
Between all my overseas travels, I’ve “grown-up” in the DC area as well: Alexandria, Mount Vernon, McClean, Quantico, Rippon Landing, Herndon, Alexandria, then Herndon again (I think that is the correct order…)…
Anyway, I don’t doubt you understand the political scene up there; I literally know nothing about it, and frankly, as disgusted as I am with both parties, I don’t want to start now!
My only point on this whole immigration issue, is that I want NO Amnesty, and I want the STRONGEST border enforcement possible.
I’d like a fence the whole length of the border, actually.
As for the illegals; work visas/guest worker program; fine, I’m okay with that.
But….
a) they pay Back Taxes for every year they worked, that they didn’t pay taxes (some have fake SSN’s, most don’t and operate on cash!
b) they pay a fine ($5000) for coming here illegally…
c) IF they came here illegally, they CANNOT get on the path to citizenship, UNTIL they go home first, and apply the Legal way, other people do!
d) if they have no intention of becoming citizens, then they don’t have to go home, but have to get a work visa, and pay their taxes, and fines!
e) NO “Amnesty” for criminals, cop murderers, sexual predators, GANG Members, etc.! NONE, NADA, ZIP, ZILCH, NO EXCEPTIONS!
f) I want a “date” picked; and any “illegal” coming into the country AFTER that date, will NOT be eligible for either Citizenship, EVER, nor a WORK visa, and WILL BE DEPORTED
g) I want work visas, and resident visas, and immigrant visas awared on the Basis of MERIT, SKILLS, NEED, and NOT family!
h) if you come here illegally, and have a child on purpose, to make them a citizen; I want that family INELIGIBLE to apply for Citizenship, and I want the child to not be a Citizen!
Those are the MINIMUM things I want; but I KNOW I’ll never get them!
Dale,
Yes I am in Herndon, grew up in McLean (watch your spelling there dude!). I think you will find all you listed is in the new Bill. Criminals are booted (yeah!) Back taxes are the one item they decided they would spend more trying to recoup than they would get. Basically all you want is in there and is tied to the new, tamper-proof IDs. And the border is strengthened.
Seems like you should be a supporter!
Your predictions have a habit of not coming true!
An example would be?
as in when I predicted the fence bill would pass last year and never be built.
Bill Provisions we will all love.
No back taxes. Gang members will be allowed to stay. We’re gonna deport criminals, as in the 600,000 that were ordered to be deported last year, that they can’t even find. I’m sure these are gonna come ‘out of the shadows’ and volunteer to be deported. Social Security will be granted to non citizens after only 1 year. Citizens take 10 years. and they will mail it to all their dependents and spouses that have not ever even been in the USA.
Yes sirree, this bill has a lot of real ‘plums’ in it.
Terrye, I did learn when I was a child that if someone was trying to take my marbles without my permission, that if I took my marbles and went home that I would still have my marbles. And the opposite of that was that if someone was taking all my hard earned marbles, with or without my permission and I did not take them and go home with them, that I would not have any marbles left.
So what was your message about taking the marbles and going home with them?
We’re not talking about whether we have a bill passed in the Senate. We’re talking about whether this bill will become law. When the snowball moves over to the house, it’s gonna melt. Fortunately for the US, most representatives are a little more in the real world.
Dale, itemized items a thru h above. There is no provision in the bill for any of those to ever be enforced. Yes, some are written in, but are then each followed by several ways to except them from enforcement. I remember a wise man saying to me once upon a time:
“Rules are written so you can have exceptions to them”
Every single item in the bill has one or more exceptions to them. I challenge anyone to quote one single provision that does not have an exception listed. Anyone?
Even MS 13 (or whatever that gang is) members have an exception.
believe it or not.
One of the strangest ironies of the whole thing is:
The bill starts out saying that nothing in the bill will be enforced until certain “triggers” occur, ie border secured, etc.
but then when you go on down, you see that all deportation efforts will be stopped immediately. Whoa, then this occurs BEFORE the triggers. the whole thing is Dimmycrat double speak, designed to get Dimmycrat votes and to alienate the Repubs.
They have now played it so that the Public sees that if it doesn’t pass, it’s the Repubs that will prevent it, therefore IF it does pass it will be BECAUSE the Repubs wanted it. So either way it gets “blamed” on the Repubs. Believe me, no one is gonna be claiming “credit” for passing it. It’s all gonna be about ‘blame-fixin’
why did the debate thing pass? so it can get some light on it
terrye,
get some help.
border enforcement before anything else has nothing to do with left or right.
this bill, as all the preceding ones, does nothing to secure the border. if it did it would pass.
as i have repeatedly predicted, the bill that will ultimately pass will be all about complete security of the border first. it will be based on concrete evidence, not promises, not on coinciding events. it will not be electronic, it will be built first so that it cannot be defunded. wiser minds could care less about the 20 million here now. it is the next 20 million we are trying to prevent as millions flood in this country on a yearly basis.
so please, save your ad hominem attacks and cheap strawman tactics for those 8th grade dropouts that flood across the border–a border many would like left open.