May 24 2007
America Ready For Immigration Reform
The hard right is self destructing on the immigration issue just as the Dems self destructed on the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. Americans may not be happy with the current situation in either case. But they are not ready to surrender Iraq or punish those workers here in the US doing nothing more than making a living without proper papers. And it is showing in the polls (as I predicted it would):
As opponents from the right and left challenge an immigration bill before Congress, there is broad support among Americans — Democrats, Republicans and independents alike — for the major provisions in the legislation, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
…
Point by point, large majorities expressed support for measures contained in the legislation that has been under debate since Monday in the Senate. The nationwide telephone poll did not ask respondents about the immigration bill itself, but there were questions about its most significant provisions. It was conducted May 18 to 23 with 1,125 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
…
Two-thirds of those polled said illegal immigrants who have a good employment history and no criminal record should gain legal status as the bill proposes: by paying at least $5,000 in fines and fees and receiving a renewable four-year visa.
Two Thirds! That makes it two-to-one for the Bush plan. Does anyone on the far right grasp the meaning here? There is no ground swelling against Bush. But if the far right keeps throwing invectives and hyperventilating at those they disagree with they will tarnish THEIR standing in this country for a long, long time to come.
Two-thirds of Americans in the survey favored creating a guest worker program for future immigrants. The bill would create a temporary worker program in which immigrants would come for three stints of two years each, going home for one year between each stint and returning home for good after the third.
As I have been warning it is only a question of whether the far right can lose gracefully or will continue to go down the path of losing ugly – and repelling the rest of the nation in the process. It is over folks. It was over when the GOP House played games and highjacked progress on this issue, and then went on to lose Congress. We, America, are ready for change on this matter. We are not interested in anger or perfection in some fantasy world. I wish the right would wake up, but I am not holding my breath anymore. I am not waiting for sanity from the talking heads and DC power brokers on either side. Enough of hot heads. Time for hot ideas.
AJ, you have got to be one of the most politically tone deaf people I have ever heard of on this issue. There is a rage going on across the nation and it isn’t just the right. It’s even more the left and they are being shut out of the conversation. If this bill is so popular, why are the phone lines burning up at the senate offices so bad they are shutting them down. Diane Fienstien was on the tube out here saying she had received over 8000 angry calls about this bill but she thought that didn’t mean much. If it was 30000, then it might mean something. Stupid thing to say, I think shes probably getting the rest of those calls by tomorrow. Also, Michelle Malkin has a good article about how the Soros bunch has set up phone polls to provide one sided results. Except for a few posters on this website, I can find almost no support for this bill anywhere else. Maybe a few on KOS and a little at FDL but that’s about it.
I’ll tell you something else, I think that if this monstrosity is pushed through, and that is exactly what they are trying to do before the public finds out all of the gruesome details and they burn down the capitol, the dems will get hurt more than the right because their base is going to be pretty damned mad. I talked to my relatives back in N. Carolina and Michigan and they tell me that Joe sixpack is mad as hell and not going to take it anymore.
NOBODY believes what is in this bill. No person with an IQ over 50 believes that the government is actually going to screen and monitor over 12 million people when they only have a day from the time the paperwork is submitted to do it. Have you ever been to a CIS office. Let me tell you what it looks like, there are tall stacks of white boxes everywhere with a few desks and haggard looking people mixed in between. Be honest, you don’t really expect these people to do what this law says, do you? Do you think they could keep track of all those people going back and forth every two years? I don’t think that is anywhere close to possible. I think this bill is the first part of a plan to throw the border altogether and create the North American Union. I wasn’t a very big believer in the NAU before this was introduced, but from what I can see of this bill, it takes us a long way down that road. It is 100% amnesty and open borders with the law restrained from doing anything to stop it. If everyone is now in a legal status, and they will be from the second Jorge signs this, what do they need citizenship for? This bill does exactly what I said before, it legalizes the illegal status and gives them cover to do any thing they want. Sheer madness!
Bikerken, not withstanding all you have said, AJ seems to miss one point; the cost to the taxpayers for all this cheap labor. It is also a get out of jail free card for dishonest employers.
And here is how it will work:
Chang Ling will get a work permit for at least four years, renewable indefinately. He will be able to bring mommie, daddy, spouse and children under the family reunification plan. Now Ling has at least 4 people to support, four people who speak no English. Ling will put his kids in school and the school district will have to hire someone who speaks his brand of Cantonese in order to teach the kids English.
And because Ling makes little money, he will pay little taxes. He will also, due to a low income, be eligible for social services like public housing, food stamps for his whole family and free medical care. So Ling is making a few bucks but the taxpayer is picking up the tab for his housing, utilities, food, medical expenses for his whole family as well as have ing to pick up the tab for a Cantonese speaking teacher.
When Ling, wanting to be a good American, files his income taxes he will learn that because of his low wages and the size of his family, he will get up to $4,000 back on his income tax over and above what he paid due to the Earned Income Tax credit. When Ling’s kids finally reach collage age, they will be considered minorities and will be given first preference and in-state tuition no matter where they live.
Oh, one other thing; if Ling is 61 when he comes and he works one year, he will be fully vested in the Social Security fund, as will his wife and his parents.
AJ and Terrye will not address the cost of this program. Where will we get the money from? Ordinary taxpayers like you, me and them.
It is possible that we could see income brackets raise to 50% to pay for this folly.
As Bikerken pointed out out in other thread, the dems will push to give the “probationary” illegals voting rights. So, flush with new voters in their ranks, the dems will be unleashed to expand their socialist agenda. And we know the Bush tax cuts will expire soon, probably followed by other sneaky tax hikes that get masked in euphemisms or double-speak.
Yes, the cost of this debacle will be a big drain on the economy, an anchor for our kids. The more is known about this bill, the worse it is.
I agree with most of AJ’s positions, but sometimes he is so in the tank for Bush that it is puzzling. On the left we talk about BDS; AJ seems 180 degrees opposite — any & everything Bush does is magical.
If the border were really to be secured, and all the labyrinthian processes and procedures were actually enforced, then I would be probably be OK with it. But, when we can’t or don’t care to enforce the laws and procedures from the last bill, and make only token efforts (when voters complain) at securing the borders, all the while acknowledging that millions of new illegals have made their way here and thousands continue doing so, then only a fool would think it will be different this time. Let’s secure our borders first, get control over who and how many come into our country … then we’ll deal with those already here. Which is what majority of taxpayers & voters want.
AJ,
You keep missing the real issue. If I didn’t know any better, I would think it was intentional.
The real issue is “how is change to be implemented”?
The public has spoken overwhelmingly that they want to see some enforcement first. They want the border secured first. They want the hole plugged. They want our ship to stop taking on water.
You keep citing these individual poll questions which don’t include the order in which the public wants to see the change occur. I have pointed this out to you once already. I know you understand this. These individual poll questions are not giving you the full picture. And yet, you seem completely dead set on ignoring this fact.
It is as if you have this opinion which you want to believe, and you are ignoring all evidence to this contrary. You are grasping at straws and pretending that they are something more than that.
Why are you sticking your head in the sand on this? Your steadfast refusal to accept the fact that the public wants to see some border security FIRST, followed by some sort of regularization, is something to behold.
I honestly don’t get it.
This whole thing reminds me of your 2006 elections predictions. Do you remember how well those predictions panned out? Your accuracy record isn’t that great. I hate to be the one to point it out to you, but it is the truth. Your predictions (especially when based upon your preconceived notions and steadfast refusal to accept contradictory evidence) have a nasty habit of not coming true.
Here are my questions to you. Would you be in favor of Iraq securing their borders? If so, why are you against us securing our borders?
This is a global war on terror isn’t it?
Or should we just continue to force Grandma to remove her shoes for x-ray and subject Grandma to pat downs at the airport, while we leave our own borders wide open?
Yes. That makes a lot of sense.
You can add that non-sequitur to my previously mentioned list of reasons that Republicans lost votes in 2006. It just doesn’t make any sense. Ordinary people realize this. Patting down Grandma at the airport while the government leaves our borders wide open is the stuff that conspiracy theories our made of.
ApacheIP
What the impact of this immigration will be
Watch this video
http://tinyurl.com/ylemgu
The New York Times, go figure! Question: On any given issue, would you trust the New York Time or Rasmussin to give you more reliable results?
This is a poison pill. 12-20 million now instant legality. Then their family member can come next. Were talking 40-50 million in a few short years. Our Entitlement programs can’t sustain the Citizens NOW, these low skilled, low educated people are a DRAIN on these programs. Robert Rector today refuting the WSJ:
Your May 24 editorial attacks my research on the fiscal costs of low skill immigration as perpetuating a “mythâ€. Roughly one third of immigrant households are now headed by immigrants without a high school degree. My research, based on Census data and other government sources, shows these “low skill immigrant†households receive, on average, $30,160 per year in government benefits while paying $10,573 in taxes. Thus each such household costs the taxpayer $19,588 per year. Overall, the net cost to U.S. taxpayers is $89 billion per year. My report suggests that the country would benefit fiscally by having fewer low skill immigrants, who are net tax consumers, and more well educated immigrants who are net tax payers.
How does your editorial refute this finding? By changing the subject. Rather than rebut my contention that low skill immigrants are a fiscal drag, it presents statistics about how much all immigrants, including college graduates, pay in taxes. Far from refuting my study, this tactic is either misleading or, at best, irrelevant. It certainly does not demonstrate that low skill immigrants pay more in taxes than they take in benefits.
The editorial also asserts, contrary to the manifest facts, that low skill immigrants do not receive large amounts of means-tested welfare assistance. It claims that one major “flaw†in my analysis is that I count immigrants as receiving welfare despite the fact that most “are not eligibleâ€. Immigrants do have limited eligibility for welfare, which is why my report counts the welfare received by immigrant households based on the immigrants’ self-report of welfare receipt to the Census Bureau. If an immigrant household states it got Food Stamps, it is counted as receiving Food Stamps. It is that simple.
As my report explicitly states, this procedure “automatically adjusts for the low use of government benefits by …immigrants,†due to eligibility limits. Unless immigrants are over-reporting their own welfare benefits, one finds that low skill immigrant households receive about $10,000 per year in means-tested welfare throughout their lifetimes. This figure does not include other major benefits such as public education, Social Security, and Medicare.
By changing the subject and thus failing to engage the facts, your editorial obscures the real fiscal impact of low-skill immigration.
Robert E. Rector
Senior Research Fellow
The Heritage Foundation
This Hard Right stuff should stop also. I listen to all the talk radio shows I can, to judge whats going on. We have two local hosts that I listen too, plus Rush, and late at night I get Michael Reagan, and Mark Levin. I hear people of every political strip calling. And they are All against this. Liberals, Moderates, and Conservatives. The biggest factor in for or against is INCOME. People under say 50k a year, are firmly against this. That is because their Jobs, Families, Schools, and Neighborhoods are the ones being affected BY This.
Congress Woman Sue Myric of Charlotte was on with Jason Lewis at WBT yesterday afternoon. Her constituants are over 90% AGAINST this, judging by her callsand E Mails. The public wants THE BORDER SECURE FIRST, then we will deal with the mess the Govt. created.
So, if this bill gets to the House, she says, it would be very hard to pass it. Remember, these freshman Dems. ran AGAINST AMNESTY and FOR Border Security FIRST. Either they go against what they RAN ON to Get Elected, or risk being voted OUT in another year. And most of the Reps. who are against this are STILL THERE.
But how does the prospects look when you ask these Poll questions, instead of the softballs?
1. Are you in favor of personally paying for an illegal person to have an attorney to fight being deported?
2. Since you and your parents had to work 10 years to be eligible for minimum Social Security, are you in favor of an illegal person being eligible for full Social Security benefits after only 1 year and not even being an American citizen? (that means if you have completed 8 years toward being eligible, all of them that have been paying only 1 year get in line ahead of you. and they get full benefits,unlike you)
3. Since you live in Florida and your child wants to go to that prestigious university in California, do you feel real good about paying full out of state tuition, while your gardener that just arrived last month, gets to send his to that same school and ONLY pay that much lower in-state rate. Seems fair.
4. I know you were happy when they arrested and ordered those MS 13 gang members downtown to be deported. How do you feel that they will be realeased and given free attorneys the day this bill is signed?
5. Since many politicians state that the reason this bill is necessary is that we can’t possibly enforce the laws as they now stand, that we should just pardon all those that are guilty of breaking all our border security laws and give them amnesty, do you think this should apply to all other lawbreakers also, after all we can’t possibly catch all rapists, bank robbers, speeders, etc, so shouldn’t we just pardon them all and pass a law that makes those things legal?
Yes, it does make a difference in what the poll question is and how it’s asked.
Take this one: Should the country do something about the illegal alien situation and should all these nice, next door hard working people be treated fairly?
Why certainly, they should be given a nice ride in an air-conditioned Greyhound bus back to Mexico and told very nicely and politely that if they come into the US again illegally they will get to spend the next 10 years at the governments expense in a nice air conditioned lockup.
But treated nicely and fairly.
Does being fair mean to give illegals rights that a native born American citizen doesn’t have? if we can’t make them pay back taxes because that ‘would be too hard’ how in God’s name are you gonna do a background check on them in 24 hours?
So far Teddy Kennedy (known killer of young women) is in favor of this bill. Who’s on his side?
.
AJ, I love ya, and I enjoy your blog; otherwise I wouldn’t have continued to come here regularly for the last year and a half. Unlike the other conservative posters here, I won’t even say that you’re wrong on this issue — just terribly naive. Take this statement from the NYT/CBS News poll with which you seem to agree:
Two-thirds of those polled said illegal immigrants who have a good employment history and no criminal record should gain legal status as the bill proposes: by paying at least $5,000 in fines and fees and receiving a renewable four-year visa.
I wonder if they also asked, as a follow-up question: how confident are you that the government has the ability or desire to sort out the good immigrants from the bad and enforce such a provision? I think that’s why so many, who either outright oppose this bill or are skeptical about it’s enforceability, view border security first as somewhat of an acid test as to how serious the government is about enforcement.
Many great points from others here. I’ve tried also to point out that CURRENTLY the entire Legal Immigration System is dysfunctional. Huge back logs, lost and discarded paper work. ICE refusing to prosecute. Etc. How could anyone believe that this totally broken system could possibly handly MILLIONS more, and do it while performing serious background checks?
It’s truely just a dream.
What bothers me most is, CURRENTLY, Illegal Aliens are always let go until the Kill. Then we get serious. They can have multiple DWI’s, Domestic Abuses, Rapes, etc. Hell, we normaly dont ask their status!
I see story after story, day after day of this. It’s sadening really.
In my area, most alliens have at least 5 DWI’s before we even care. If I had 2, I’d be in jail by the second one. But for some reason, every Illegal article in N.C. I’ve seen pertaining to Illegals Driving Drunk, there is a recuring theme: Until they kill, we just let them go.
The Mecklenberg County Sherriff, Jim Pendergraf, recently stated this Amnesty will destroy the Country. He is a law and order ELECTED..DEMOCRATE. He is CURRENTLY checking the Status of anyone that comes to his jail. HE IS AGAINST THIS SENATE BILL.And he has No Room In his jail for more Illegals most days. Booked up.
We let them go in N.C. until they kill. His jail is the only one in the STATE that takes Illegals. And the nearest Immigration Court is in Atlanta!
Of course, we send them there for a hearing, set up a Court Date, and 90% of them, we never see again. Until they Kill.
Then the local Public is Outraged that these people are on the street, and not Deported or in Jail.
And the Cycle repeats it self over and over.
Of course, to know this, you need to leave the New York Times, AP, Brierbart, Wash Post, etc. behind. They rairly show these stories.
I have to concur with the other posters.
The public is VERY angry about illegal immigration. Whichever party taps that anger will annihilate the other.
But the issue is not expulsion vs amnesty. It is securing the border. The public is shouting, “Build the wall! Build it now!”…but the elites of this country are so addicted to their cheap illegal labor supply that they don’t give a damn about the rest of the country.
Which is likely to have some devastating consequences inthe long run.
Folks,
Two thirds support Bush. This is not even close. You can pretend these numbers do not reflect opinion – but they are consistent with polls that have been out for years. You can find people who have concerns with an issue here or there. But when you ask the bottom line they want the bill with the imperfections because what the bill has in terms of progress out weighs each individual’s concerns. I cannot tell you how ridiculous it is to see people post the American people believe other than what they are clearly saying and have said for 4 years now. That kind of denial kills credibility. Stone cold dead.
I’m with AJ on this one. As I see it the real rinos are the certain conservatives who have been bashing George W. Bush publically for their own polictical power grab. I’m not likin’ it. He “brought them to the dance”, twice. How do they think he did that? Just with their 30%? I don’t think so.
Overreaching power grabs. It’s a shame for my beloved America hangs in the balance and they are more interested in being “right”.
Got to agree with AJ and IVEHADIT.
I would add the that the hard right is more interrested in being “right” with no alternative to the Status Quo. The prospects of watching 12 million people being rounded up like Elian Gonzales and shipped out of the country sickens me. I will not stand with my fellow right wingers on this. You all will be out of power for a long time if you loose this issue in such a classless way.
AJ, 2/3rds approve of Bush’s amnesty plan? Where are you getting your poll numbers? His approval rating, along with Congress’s rating, are tanking faster than the Bismark. Do you think that only 1/3 of American agrees with the war on terror? His base is deserting him because of his push to make millions of people legal who are criminals. Yes, criminals. That is what you call someone who violated the law. Committ a crime and you are a criminal.
So you are saying that the polls are telling us that? What poll? The only one I can find that would even begin to agree with your premise is the Gallop Poll. Other polls say that people want the fence (and enforcement) first.
You say Americans want the bill with it’s imperfections. I would like to see a poll of just how many people have read that 1,000 page monster or are aware of exactly what is in the bill. Or are aware that the “inperfections” as you call them, will not only be so costly that our taxes will increase substantially, but will be impossible to enforce.
At least Reagan called it what it was: amnesty. But now we are being sold a bill of goods and you are the first enabler by saying this is the best we can get. If it is the best our elected officials can do, this nation is in deep trouble. You don’t end the robbery of 7-11 stores by throwing open the doors and not having locks.
The bill is not a compromise. It is a selling out of American citizens, granting illegal aliens rights that you and I don’t have.
Perhaps you have faith in the D.C. elites to enforce this bill. I don’t. And I don’t see how you, if you have read any part of this bill, can stand by it and think that it is a good thing. Just one item, such as repealing the out-of-state tuition law provides illegals with greater benefits than you have.
And remember how you said you wanted the illegals to abide by the houseing laws in your community? Those will go out the window as the ACLU starts it’s discrimination dance. Not you, or your city managers, will be able to do anything about it. So as you houses and apartments fill us with newly minted legals, you school taxes will increase to meet the financial demand of your school district. Your hospital will suffer. Your city services (police, fire department, street crews) will be overwhelmed.
You are buying a pig in a poke.
Is this issue as clear cut as AJ thinks?
Scott Rasmussen analyzes this morning’s New York Times poll
NY Times/CBS Poll Finds that 69% Believe Illegal Immigrants Should Be Prosecuted
Yes Ordi, the issue is as clear as I think. Poll after poll finds divergence an a detail here and a detail there but the bottom line is always the same. Massive support for reform and a guest worker program. Perfection doesn’t exist anymore than the tooth fairy.
What poll after poll? People want reform, they don’t want amnesty. And they damn sure don’t want what you are pushing, the pardon of millions of illegals who have no respect for our laws. You can push that pig all you want and you can’t make it a silk purse.
Guest worker? Yes, if they enter legally?
Reform:? Yes, but enforcement first.
Take your ear plugs out, AJ. The nation is saying “no” to this travesty of a bill and you refuse to listen.
So tell me, how are people on the bottom rung of the wage scale going to pay a $5,000.00 fine? And are you alright with giving them a pass on all back taxes? I want the same deal. I won’t pay my taxes for five years, pay a $5,000 fine and my kid can go to a university in another state and I will only have to pay the in-state tuition.
What a deal.
AJ
Rasmussen writes:
The survey found, for example, that 67% would allow illegal immigrants to “apply for a four-year visa… as long as they pay a $5,000 fine, a fee, show a clean work record, and pass a criminal background check.†That, too, is similar to a Rasmussen Reports survey which found 65% support for a compromise proposal allowing illegal aliens a “very long path to citizenship†provided that “the proposal required the aliens to pay fines and learn English†and that the compromise “would truly reduce the number of illegal aliens entering the country.†The proposal, specifically described as a compromise, was said to include “strict employer penalties for hiring illegal aliens, building a barrier along the Mexican border and other steps to significantly reduce the number of illegal aliens entering the United States.â€
However, while 65% were willing to support such a compromise, only 26% support the legislation currently before the Senate.
Hey I am pretty much where the 65% is but not with the 26%. Yje American People know what they want but the current bill does not appear to give it to them. They need to get closer to perfection. Like I said, it is not as clear cut as you think it is.
FYI: The Tooth Fairy does exist in my house. I preformed that function. LOL
Doing the jobs Americans won’t do:
http://www.themonitor.com/news/driver_2611___article.html/police_ice.html