May 24 2007
America Ready For Immigration Reform
The hard right is self destructing on the immigration issue just as the Dems self destructed on the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. Americans may not be happy with the current situation in either case. But they are not ready to surrender Iraq or punish those workers here in the US doing nothing more than making a living without proper papers. And it is showing in the polls (as I predicted it would):
As opponents from the right and left challenge an immigration bill before Congress, there is broad support among Americans — Democrats, Republicans and independents alike — for the major provisions in the legislation, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
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Point by point, large majorities expressed support for measures contained in the legislation that has been under debate since Monday in the Senate. The nationwide telephone poll did not ask respondents about the immigration bill itself, but there were questions about its most significant provisions. It was conducted May 18 to 23 with 1,125 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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Two-thirds of those polled said illegal immigrants who have a good employment history and no criminal record should gain legal status as the bill proposes: by paying at least $5,000 in fines and fees and receiving a renewable four-year visa.
Two Thirds! That makes it two-to-one for the Bush plan. Does anyone on the far right grasp the meaning here? There is no ground swelling against Bush. But if the far right keeps throwing invectives and hyperventilating at those they disagree with they will tarnish THEIR standing in this country for a long, long time to come.
Two-thirds of Americans in the survey favored creating a guest worker program for future immigrants. The bill would create a temporary worker program in which immigrants would come for three stints of two years each, going home for one year between each stint and returning home for good after the third.
As I have been warning it is only a question of whether the far right can lose gracefully or will continue to go down the path of losing ugly – and repelling the rest of the nation in the process. It is over folks. It was over when the GOP House played games and highjacked progress on this issue, and then went on to lose Congress. We, America, are ready for change on this matter. We are not interested in anger or perfection in some fantasy world. I wish the right would wake up, but I am not holding my breath anymore. I am not waiting for sanity from the talking heads and DC power brokers on either side. Enough of hot heads. Time for hot ideas.
Ordi,
Relying on Americans to be ignorant of the proposal is a sure fire path to defeat. When they find out the bill covers their general preferences they will really be upset at anyone who derails this again.
You can believe what you want, but the polls and momentum show you are hoping for self destruction as the last ditch hope to stop the bill. Either way the hard right loses.
More of what Rasmussen wrote:
The gap between the 65% potential support for a compromise and the 26% actual support for the Senate bill is due to two factors. First, the debate in the Senate has focused on how to legalize the status of illegal aliens. For most Americans, that’s missing the point (just 29% of American voters see legalizing the status of illegal aliens as a Very Important issue).
Second, there is enormous skepticism about the government commitment to enforcing the borders (as the Times survey noted, only 14% believe the government is doing all it can at this time). To most voters, immigration reform is all about border control. Until voters are convinced that the enforcement is both real and effective, there will be no popular support for reform.
I would add the that the hard right is more interrested in being “right†with no alternative to the Status Quo.
Tom, that is just a load of crap. The percentage of people opposed to this bill who want to load up 12 million illegals and ship them out is very small. The “alternative to the status quo” that a huge number of people favor is enforcement and border security first. If the government can show that they can chew gum, then I think a lot more people will have confidence that they can walk and chew gum at the same time. Right now I don’t have that confidence.
AJ
I am NOT hoping for self destruction as the last ditch hope to stop the bill. Matter of fact I truly am only following this issue from the sideline. AJ, I love your blog, agree with you most of the time and love your usual fair and balanced reporting on issues. However, on this issue you jumped out and said “It’s a done deal so shut up and stop whining”
Which is not your usual approach. On this issue you seem somehow emotional involved in this issue. I am not sure why but that is how I see it. Like I said I am with the 65% I know and want some foam of reform but not the current bill. They need to work on it and ACTUALLY come closer to what Americans want.
So what are we going to do with the current legal immigration system? Just scrap it altogether? Because it doesn’t really make any sense to have that system and this one too operating side by side. Oh, and are we going to tell all of those millions of people currently waiting to get into the US to pick from Plan A or Plan B. Either wait for years and follow silly laws to come to America, or just come on in, just walk across the border and we’ll give you a temporary legal status, (permanently renewable), and a Z-visa after an extensive 24-hour background investigation. Because remember, they were not going to be pushed to the back of the line! (side comment: this is the biggest LIE of the whole bill, the idea that illegals will be legalized and immediately allowed to work here and go in and out of the country at will, but they are not going to be put ahead of the line in front of those who did things right is a complete and utter LIE. The illegals are already here doing exactly what they wanted, how can anyone see this as being in back of the line?!? The correct answer is that they don’t but they have to keep up the lie.)
Stevevvs is exactly right, this breaks mainly along income lines. Those who selfishly want cheap labor and profits from slave labor are for this and those who will have to compete with these low skilled workers who will live twenty to a house, will have no choice but to face a declining life style and eventually live the same way. It doesn’t surprise me that the WSJ is for this because to them, money is always the deciding factor.
By the way AJ, I have a govt job and I work with ICE, FBI and a few other of the alphabet soups out here, according to ICE, they may well have to empty out our detention facilities down here because of the change in legal status of thousands of detainees. Most of those people are there for crimes they committed while in this country and are being processed for deportation. This along with the gang renuncifcation nonsense which allows gang members to get visas gives away the lie that we are only going to accept the ones who haven’t broken the law.
These are serious questions that need to be answered instead of giving the country the bum’s rush and sticking us with a pig in a poke before the details are discussed in the light of day. This bill is going to change the dynamics of this countries economics, culture, and quality of life more than anything that has been passed in the last 50 years. Are we to assume that bringing in tens of millions of Mexicans is going to be an improvement of the American condition? They are coming from a lawless country that isn’t doing that well.
Just saying that most people are for it, (especially when congresscritters are getting tens of thousands of phone calls against it and almost none for it), is not a mature intelligent response. Denial is not just a river in Egypt.
RS says: “border security and enforcement”
Yep, I’m all for that to. This bill has it, just not the way you want it.
So ust what does “border security and enforcement” mean? You all are complaining about it yet offer up nothing except box’em up and ship’em home…
And Ordi’s ref. from Rasmussen indicates that a lot of people share my lack of confidence.
Well, I guess I defy the model. I support Pres Bush on 98% of every position he has, but not on this Amnesty bill. I don’t think he knows what is in it, quite frankly. (I think I’m a middle of the road, hard liner conservative) (these labels are real useful, aren’t they?)
I would be in the 100% of the people that would support immigration reform, but I haven’t heard any proposed. All I’ve heard is a “make illegals more equal than US citizens bill” and I’m in the whatever % that does not favor that.
I think most of the people that respond affirmatively to the poll AJ is referring to are of the mistaken opinion that they are talking about immigration reform that will actually do something good about the illegal aliens, such as secure the border. But they are not correct in that assumption.
So tell me, how are people on the bottom rung of the wage scale going to pay a $5,000.00 fine? And are you alright with giving them a pass on all back taxes? I want the same deal. I won’t pay my taxes for five years, pay a $5,000 fine and my kid can go to a university in another state and I will only have to pay the in-state tuition.
and if they do attempt to enforce any of these little details, we have to provide them, at taxpayers expense, an attorney to fight us over them.
Most are for reform, but it ain’t in this bill. Most are against rapists, but that’s not in this bill either, however a lot of people will be ‘raped’ if this bill passes, and I’m not talking about the illegal aliens.
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Actually, Tom you are the only one on this thread that is talking about boxing em up.
So ust what does “border security and enforcement†mean? You all are complaining about it yet offer up nothing except box’em up and ship’em home…
Aaaarggghhh!! How does one respond to that level of denseness?
RS says: “border security and enforcement”
Yep, I’m all for that to. This bill has it, just not the way you want it.
So just what does “border security and enforcement” mean? You all are complaining about it yet offer up nothing except box’em up and ship’em home…
The fence is being built. People are being arrested and deported. There will be background checks. There will be a fine administered to those who have broken the law, a plea bargain if you will. The criminal system cannot absorb 12 million cases. Something has to be done. Nothing is not an option. Simple enough?
The overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants are just like our forefathers they came here seeking a better life and freedom. (spare me the annectdotal evidence where there are excpetions) So much bureaucracy has been put in place to keep them out they are left with little choice but to cross the line and go underground if they want to improve their lives and their families lives in their lifetime. We have always been an open country made better by immigration whether legal or illegal. My family came here ILLEGALLY in 1678.
Mine came here LEGALLY in 1842 and 1866.
Tom Anon, aren’t you being a little melodramatic? Just a little exaggeration in a attempt to make a point?
an example; My family came here ILLEGALLY in 1678.
what immigration law did they violate in 1678 specifically?
So just what does “border security and enforcement†mean? You all are complaining about it yet offer up nothing except box’em up and ship’em home…
Who, other than you, have mentioned ‘boxing them up and shipping them home?
The fence is being built. People are being arrested and deported. There will be background checks. There will be a fine administered to those who have broken the law, a plea bargain if you will.
really? tell me exactly how many miles of the fence, authorized last summer, are presently under construction? where is it? I’m going to suggest the correct answer is exactly zero. Do you have some specific evidence otherwise? give us a link to that info.
But if you read this compromise bill, those arrests and deportations stop the day the bill is signed. a 24 hr background check? That can’t even be done in the USA, so how are we going to get Guatamala and Brazil and Mexico to respond within 24 hours. And even if we find something that may disqualify, then we have to appoint at taxpayer expense, a lawyer to get them off anyhow. He will also see that they don’t have to pay any fine also, claiming poverty, so the taxpayers will have to pay it for them.
What does border enforcement mean? Stop people from crossing the border, except at checkpoints. Fairly reasonable and simple.
The criminal system cannot absorb 12 million cases. Something has to be done. Nothing is not an option. Simple enough?
why or why not? Since the system won’t absorb them, we turn them loose? that’s your answer? Do we just pardon all rapists if we can’t catch them?
The overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants are just like our forefathers they came here seeking a better life and freedom. (spare me the annectdotal evidence where there are excpetions) So much bureaucracy has been put in place to keep them out they are left with little choice but to cross the line and go underground if they want to improve their lives and their families lives in their lifetime. We have always been an open country made better by immigration whether legal or illegal. My family came here ILLEGALLY in 1678.
Quite simply, this is a representative republic where we (US citizens) elect people to pass laws for the benefit of the country. They passed these laws that put this bureaucracy in place to protect the country and now you want to ignore them because Non-citizens don’t like the laws? But this open country that was made better by immigration is the country that saw a need to pass laws for the betterment of the people. Do you not trust their judgement?
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As I said, if this bill passes, the Republican party is going to be a minority party for the next four generations or until Americans realize that they have been sold another bill of goods, all being deducted from their paychecks in the form of federal income tax. There is NO way the American taxpayer can financially support the programs in this bill and the social services that will be “legally” available to those who have broken our laws.
Anyone care to comment on the part of the bill that requires the United States to get Mexico’s permission to build a wall? And about that wall, what happened to the Fence Act of 2006 that required over 700 miles of fencing? We were led to believe that Congress meant that, as well, but to date we have two miles of fencing. At that rate, it will take 350 years to build the fence. By that time, there will be no one left in Mexico, China or South America. But don’t worry, the new bill dwindles down the fence to less than 400 miles so illegals will only have 1600 miles where they can cross.
How about the back taxes? That moron Chernoff says you can’t enforce that. Try not paying your taxes for five years. Or claim 10 dependents and see what happens? Our newly minted legals will not have to provide Social Security numbes for their kids in Columbia or Mexico. Just claim them. How will the IRS prove they are lying? And with claiming 8 kids, they will be eligible for Earned Income Tax Credits that will actually give them up to another $4,000 in refund on taxes they haven’t paid.
So will we also just take their word for it? What about the “proof” that they have been in country since Dec. 31, 2006? It seems that just two statements from NON-RELATED people will do the trick. So you will have other illegals, who have applied for the Z-visa, lying about someone else. Can you say Ponzi?
Employers will not be able to question the legality of an applicant until AFTER that person is hired. Then the employer will have 72 hours to verify legality and if they don’t hire them because they don’t know if they are illegal, the employers will be guilty of discrimination. And if they hire them, and find out they are illegal, just let them try to fire them. The ACLU (Anti-American Civil Liberties Union) will sue them. Of course, if they do hire illegals, then they are subjected to being busted by ICE. This is a lose-lose situation for employers.
AJ would have you believe that this travesty is better than the status quo. How so? It will provide billions of dollars in social welfare benefits to those who are not getting them now. Wonder if AJ would like to pick up the tab for my share.
To AJ and Tom,
A couple of quick questions –
1. How do you feel about people who cut line? Do you like that?
2. If you were standing in line for some sort of event, like a movie, and a couple of hundred people simply cut in line in front of you, would you say, “I am compassionate and I approve of you cutting in line in front of me?
3. What kind of message will this bill send to the millions of people doing it the right way (aka. the legal way), who spend years and an average of $7K to $10K to become legal citizens of this country?
ApacheIP
Rasmussen\’s Projections: Some are trying to say the question that illegals should be prosecuted gained 69% support is bad for the bill – that is grasping. First off, I think illegals should pay the price – just no the price the far right looks for. Second, the question could have been interpreted as referencing conditions after the new programs are in place. And of course all of us who support the program believe it will lead to the ability to ID and boot people out who have not registered and gotten their background checks.
The big pull for this bill: One strike you are out. Every time someone posts a crime by an alien we are reminded we cannot do much about it now. But under the new bill one strike (even in your past) and out you go. That includes DUIs.
Comically, those pushing the horror stories of crimes by immigrants (legal and illegal) keep pushing more people to support this bill because the status quo is relfected in the stories – the fix is in the bill in the Senate. I would point out the hypocrisy of using crime stories to claim this bill is bad…
But what\’s the point? The 33% against this bill are far left and far right partisans who have lost all reason and just complain about the rest of us not buying their logic. Logic dictates 66 is twice as big as 33.
BTW, one side of my family has been here for hundreds of years. They are known by the name of Cherokee. Unfettered immigration worked really well for them, didn’t it?
But, the house gets to vote also.
,
the fix is in the bill in the Senate
and that fix is: turn them loose, give them a lawyer at our expense and give them a pardon, amnesty and put them at the head of the line.
Well, that solves that problem.
Next.
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AJ, you say “one strike, you’re out” and that is the good part of the bill. Please, tell me, if that is already part of our immigration laws, how do you intend to enforce it? We have the right now to deport criminals. How long do you think they will be in the judicial system before they are deported? And who will be paying for their legal representation?
Since there is no provision for inter-agency coordination regarding illegals (between ICE, local law enforcement) the santuary city provision will provide illegals a place to remain in the shawdows when it comes to law enforcement. The provision to end santuary cities was defeated.
What do you think would happen if 12-20 million Americans started The Coalition for Refusing to Pay Income Tax? Do you think we would all be given amnesty? Or do you think that the IRS would find a way to prosecute all of us? I think you know the answer.
Amensty (and yes, that is what it is) is not the answer. Nor is any new bill designed to read like An Inconvenient Lie. Enforce our laws as they are now. If you eliminate the jobs, prosecute the employers, stop all social welfare, illegals will have no reason to stay. It is sad that you cannot see beyond your own agenda to realize that.