Jun 16 2007
New Immigration Poll – GOP Damaged
Well, it would seem the goodwill of America has been poisoned by the relentless PR campaign of the amnesty hypochondriacs. We seem to have found the magic scapegoat for all our woes: illegal immigrants. A new WSJ Poll Shows a big drop off in support of the immigration plan dealing with illegals currently here (see here and here). But at a major price to the GOP (as predicted):
Now I would like to get your reaction to several parts of a possible new immigration bill. Please tell me whether you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each of the following parts of this bill.
All immigrants who apply to be U.S. citizens would be required to learn English
Strongly Favor: 73
Somewhat Favor: 16
Somewhat Oppose: 6
Strongly Oppose: 4
Not Sure: 1Fav/Opp: 89/10
Imposing new fines on businesses that hire illegal immigrants
Strongly Favor: 57
Somewhat Favor: 17
Somewhat Oppose: 11
Strongly Oppose: 12
Not Sure: 3Fav/Opp: 74/23
Increasing border security by building a fence along part of the U.S. border with Mexico and by hiring and training more border patrol agents
Strongly Favor: 44
Somewhat Favor: 21
Somewhat Oppose: 12
Strongly Oppose: 19
Not Sure: 4Fav/Opp: 65/31
Immigrants who want to come to the U.S. to work and who are not already here could apply for a two-year work visa that they could renew up to two times
Strongly Favor: 38
Somewhat Favor: 41
Somewhat Oppose: 6
Strongly Oppose: 12
Note sure: 3Fav/Opp: 79/18
Allowing illegal workers who arrived in the U.S. to apply for permanent U.S. residency if they return to their home country within eight years and pay additional fines
Strongly Favor: 13
Somewhat Favor: 22
Somewhat Oppose: 20
Strongly Oppose: 35
Note Sure: 10Fav/Opp: 35/55
Allowing illegal workers who arrived in the U.S. before January first of this year to receive an automatic work visa if they pay a fine of around five thousand dollars
Strongly Favor: 10
Somewhat Favor: 20
Somewhat Oppose: 18
Strongly Oppose: 46
Not sure: 6Fav/Opp: 30/64
Of course, the real question on dealing with illegal immigrants is a fine, back taxes and a background check for a violent criminal record. But despite the misleading question the news is not good. The GOP, striving for something harsh enough to entice illegal aliens NOT to come forward and register with the government, are hell bent on retaining the status quo and all its problems. The whole point of fines and back taxes was to require a reaonable (by all other laws on our books) payment of debt to society but enough of an enticement so that these people come forward and get jobs that include all the required taxes so that they too pay their fair share. The problem is rounding up people will cost a lot more than some small set who get benefits.
But today’s GOP is not run on logic, it is run on hate. And it is paying a price:
Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party’s nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election––that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN,” ASK:) And do you strongly prefer a (Democrat/Republican), or is your preference not that strong?
Democrat
Strongly: 42
Not Strongly: 10
Republican
Strongly 23
Not Strongly 8Dem/Rep: 52/31
Strong Dem/Rep: 42/23
Almost 2-1 against the GOP. I would say that is a lot of damage when usually these numbers have a gap of only 5-10%, with the Reps down usually. The damage inflicted by the GOP on itself has been stunning. The Dems have inflicted damage on themselves too. People are ready to toss the Pols out and start fresh. The question on whether people support their own representative or want someone new is 40/48 in favor of someone new. That number is usually very high in support of incumbants (its always someone elses representative causing the trouble). But somehow the Dems are not as bad off as the Reps (though Congress is).
The fact is the damage to the GOP is done. And is it surprising? Again, all I have to do is sample the conservative blogs to show what kind of person represents the base:
And those that support this monstrosity will be looking for new jobs. The Senators that supported it will be next on the unemployment line.
Bush may go down in history as a traitor, but he won’t care, he’ll be living the high life in Paraguay.
3 posted on 06/16/2007 12:17:22 AM PDT by janetgreen
So this POS legislation proves beyond a shodow of a doubt that our government truly no longer serves by the consent of the governed.
According to the Founders, we now have the right to abolish said government.You bring the guillotines, I’ll bring the pikes!
6 posted on 06/16/2007 12:23:12 AM PDT by FierceDraka (I’m not against the government. The government is against ME.)
“El Presidente will be having steaks on the grill each evening while the rest of us will be left wondering what the hell happened???â€
We can wonder over that while we are spending hours in line waiting for our govt. cheese handout.
21 posted on 06/16/2007 2:01:55 AM PDT by Bogtrotter52 (Reading DU daily so you won’t hafta)
Peruse the insanity at will. Bush and Congress were duly elected and given the power to do what they think is right. People who disagree and then propose coup d’etat’s are not Americans. In fact I would not be surprised if the mob mentality gripping the right is not being stoked by people to help them in their credibility self-destruction. The funny thing is, the same Chicken Little cries resulted from the 1980’s bill and all the immigration that occurred has NOT destroyed this country. But the hate from the partisans has. They have lost all self control. And for those of us who have not lost our minds over documenting the undocumented workers here it is becoming uglier. And the sad thing is these haters who pretend that is the American way have lost all their perspective. It is now only ‘American’ to be like them.
The bill could pass, and it might be the right thing to do to get past this insanity. It is either pass it now and show the wingnuts the sky will not fall, or leave the entire mess in place for another 10-30 years. Because this issue is looking like a 3rd rail issue like Social Security reform. Thanks to the GOP we will could be stuck with the current mess for the foreseeable future. Either way, thanks to the GOP we are likely to be stuck with a Democrat President unless someone like Rudy Guiliani or Mitt Romney can hang on and win the primary. The problem is, the GOP may have distilled itself down to the point moderates do not participate at all.
Instead of learning the lesson of Pete Wilson in CA, and how long it took to get someone like Arnold Schwarzenneger to get the (R) back into a statewide office, we are probably seeing that mistake now being repeated on a national level. It was over illegal immigrants Wilson lost CA to the GOP for a decade. Sad, but true. We never learn our lessons of history. Bush better beat al-Qaeda in Iraq in the next year or the lesson of listening to partisans (left and right) will be a very, very painful one. People forget the comprehensive bill was designed to efficiently deal with immigration, minimizing law enforcement requirements and leave those for our war on terror. It was not meant to maximize punishment.
The bill was more enticement than punishment so we could optimize the resources between illegals and terrorists. We want the hay stack to come forward to make it easier to find the needles. The more who come forward the less effort required to deal with those we need to find who should be out of here. It is now way out of balance and the whole thing is going to leave us vulnerable. Not what the GOP wanted – but it is the price they were willing to pay to go after nannies and cooks and painters.
Update: A lot of readers keeping bringing up marginal details and asking me to address them as if they are important. They do not understand my position (though I have posted on it many times). The reason I am were I am is because of the priorities I have selected. I am not for maximizing the punishment of illegal aliens. What I am for is an efficient and rapid fix to our national security – thus I come down to a different set of conclusions.
The problem is the amnesty hypochondriacs think we have unlimited law enforcement resources or unlimited time to deal with the problem of illegal immigrants and who may be among them. In a world without al-Qaeda I would possibly agree.
But in a world with al-Qaeda my priorities are to rapidly separate the good from the bad and get the bad outta here before they go radical. Those who push this issue off until years later are allowing a dangerous criminal element to remain here and possibly be recruited by al-Qaeda. That is and has been my top concern.
The concept is one of triage, where you select what you can do to save what is salvageable. In my opinion we need to optimize our defense, not our punishment of illegals. We cannot focus on illegals at the expense of national security. So I am all for a path where we entice those who have not done anything seirously wrong and look to be law abiding to come forward and step aside. Once this is done we have made our national security problem orders of magnitude easier. Where to put our resources – nannies versus terrorists – it is a pretty basic question. With limited resources that is the choice. Worrying about silly things like touchbacks (more resources required we do not have) is just not worth the effort when you add up the problem and the resources we have to deal with the problem. Nannies or terrorists.
This has always been the basis of my equations – from day one. Maximize the transition of tolerable illegals to legal and monitored, while deporting the bad apples ASAP. Bad apples are potential terrorist recruits. When that is your driving strategy the bill makes total sense. When something else is your goal these priorities fall to the wayside.
Oh, and insulting and haranguing this subculture population so that the feel isolated and disrespected (like immigrants in Europe) only provides an excuse to finally give into terrorist overtures. Offering them to come into the open gives them one set of motivations. Offering them hate and punishment gives them another set of motivations. Cold, hard, unavoidable logic. Usually the best answer in a fight for your life. Leaving potential recruits for al-Qaeda on our streets is pretty dumb. Giving them excuse to sign up is suicidal.
There is no reason to wait on culling the 12 million illegals here into two camps: the relatively safe and the known problems (which are then deported). There is no rational excuse to delay this process of culling out those who cannot stay here any longer than possible. And what about insulting them, their families and their culture (e.g., 3rd world toilets) while you let them stay around longer? …… Needless to say I am woefully unimpressed with the GOP right now.
And I think it is this kind of logic that drives Bush and many conservative leaders. Unlike the armchair experts sitting at home behind a computer screen, our leaders see the daily security threats. So why would you go against your party and do something that spells political disaster? How hard is that one to figure out. You sacrifice what you must to protect the nation – including party. And no, they will not tell us if the telling opens up our national security secrets and defenses. I may be wrong – but at least I am erring on ‘the conservative side’.
SallyVee
After that post, just which side of this issue is has the closer affinity to chicken little?
Bush better beat al-Qaeda in Iraq in the next year or the lesson of listening to partisans (left and right) will be a very, very painful one. People forget the comprehensive bill was designed to efficiently deal with immigration, minimizing law enforcement requirements and leave those for our war on terror. It was not meant to maximize punishment.
The bill was more enticement than punishment so we could optimize the resources between illegals and terrorists. We want the hay stack to come forward to make it easier to find the needles. The more who come forward the less effort required to deal with those we need to find who should be out of here. It is now way out of balance and the whole thing is going to leave us vulnerable. Not what the GOP wanted – but it is the price they were willing to pay to go after nannies and cooks and painters.
Fair Enough. But it then causes me to ask this questions:
Why was it written in secret (Like Hillary care in94), by passing the normal committe processes?
Why limit debate to less time than War Funding? Those seem like important questions, and Ed Morrissey asked them a while back.
SallyVee
Make your choice here
Is Lindsey Graham sounding like Hillary Clinton without the skirt (if she ever wears one) or is Hillary Clinton sounding like Lindsey Graham?
Or is it closer to a toss up?
Merlin, I’m not just a little chicken. I’m a HUGELY chicken observer at the moment. Scared and truly alarmed at what is unfolding — which seems to have no governing intelligence and no brakes whatsoever.
…smill,
that is the most naive fantasy I have heard all day! Thanks for the laugh and restoring my confidence in my position. Why not just throw a penny in a fountain and wish them all away!
Would do about as good. And you know what – your fantasy is not one of the options we have right now. That makes it double fiction! …
You’re welcome, though I don’t know why you think it’s funny. If you were an employer, would you hire an illegal if you KNEW that the penalty would be a huge fine on the first offense, increasing to include incarceration on subsequent offenses? If you were illegal and couldn’t find anyone to hire you here, wouldn’t you go back home? We might have to have a National ID to institute this, but what the heck? It would work, in spite of your silly laughter. Why wouldn’t it?
I have to note that being a long time reader here , like almost from the beginning, this is the first issue I have seen on this blog that AJ avoided direct and repeated questions regarding his position in the usual form that would easily be shown contrary to his past behavior.
This blog has always had a quality high level debate with questions asked and answered to fully flesh out and justify the eventual consensus.
It always struck me as a good one where issues of the day could be hashed out by give and take to obtain the best solution.
Until this issue appeared, I can not recall a situation except for troll takedowns that AJ responded to his regular commenters with things that could be construed as potentially being snarky rather than substansive.
The part that should alarm many is that the whole ball of wax that surrounds this bill sits in the hands of Harry Reid.
Harry the political animal who sees this only as a bloodbath inspired to attach leaches to the right at every opportunity.
He played the game until Teddy in his desire to get a bill started agreeing to provisions going forward that went against his own grain and shut it down.
Reid gave Teddy enough rope to hang himself and then shut down the issue when he considered Teddy’s position more of a danger than any gains he could get from the blood letting on the other side.
Now if this thing gets a second life, you can bet Reid and Teddy have had a meeting of the minds and Teddy will not try to wander far from the ranch.
But still this is all smoke and mirrors. As I have noted before this still has to get by the house which was the killing fields the last time around.
To expect Pelosi to suddenly command lock step attention is to say the least wishful.
If the solution does not, as soon as possible, help identify the bad guys then it is a non starter for me.
— smacks head —
Now I get it!! This bill has some magical enticement that will cause all of the thugs, gang bangers and terrorists to stand and yell, “HERE I AM!”
It’s a bloody BRILLIANT bill!! Those geniuses in D.C. have truly outdone themselves this time. I don’t know how they did it, but that is one impressive accomplishment.
Just out of curiosity, does anyone know what brilliant enticement they are offering that makes all of the thugs, gang bangers, and terrorists completely stupid? So phenomenally stupid that they actually step forward and identify themselves to the authorities.
I’m just curious.
Apache
Yup just like it’s gonna draw all those zcard apps who are gonna say Yuppers by god and fer sure I did the Social Security card scam for the last 10 years which should get me 12 to 15 behind the cross bar hotel but your gonna give me a pass ain’t ya bro.
Come on I only trashed that real holders account and caused them all sorts of grief but it balances out because I got to play my game.
Oh like this is a second strike beyond my original of just being plain illegal by being here. Man that’s so uncool.
I know I am thinking I might as well vote Democrat if voting Republicans means I have to think like Michelle Malkin.
I just want a reasonable solution to the problem. I want border security, a guest worker program for areas where the labor is needed and I think we need a way to keep track of who is here. We need to deport the criminals, while at the same time making allowances for people who have been here for years and who have contributed to their communities.
I am ashamed of some of the paranoia I am seeing on the right, their willingness to believe any half baked theory that comes along and their refusal to even attempt a compromise.
So far the right has not come up with one single viable alternative plan that can actually pass. They talk a lot, but that does not mean anything. Talking won’t fix this, we need a better plan.
As for what kind of enticement a plan would be or anything like that, it should be noted that the status quo is obviously not a deterrent and yet the hardliners are doing everything they can to keep things just the way they are.
What kind of message does that send? If these people know there will never be an agreement for ID cards or a reason to step forward, why would they? And if people think all we need to do is enforce the law, well how do they intend to do that? Just give law enforcement et al a kick in the behind?
Once again that is not a plan. It is just something to say. And if the Republicans keep this up and even if they get their wall built and they do not come up with a way to deal with people who come in another way, or deal with people who are already here, or improve the laws that exist today, this will not get better.
The idea that we can build a wall and all the illegals will just self deport with 12 million people leaving the economy and the country and everything is just ok fine is a fantasy. It really is and it is making the right sound ridiculous.
I have gotten to the place where I do not even know what these people want anymore. All they do is attack other people.
Daddy, what was the stupid party?
http://brothersjuddblog.com/archives/2007/06/if_its_the_last_thing_they_do.html
Lindsay Graham is not Hillary Clinton without a skirt. He is the guy the people of his state actually voted for. Unlike most of the hardliners out there he actually won his election. And it should be up to the people of his state to decide if he goes or stays, not someone on the internet who seems to think he and his compadres are the party and everyone else just does not belong.
Now if the people wanted someone who sounds like Michael Savage or whatever in the Senate, that is who they would vote for. But they don’t. Overwhelmingly they don’t.
years ago a guy told me that everytime the Republicans win a majority for awhile the right starts thinking they run the country and then they start pushing everyone around and the Republicans lose elections.
How right he was.
If the Republicans can not come up with a compromise and settle this to some extent, the party most likely to settle it will be the Democrats and I am sure the screaming ninnies on the right will like that plan even less.
And they will have no one but themselves to blame.
Terrye
What scares me more is those who chose not to debate the merits of the bill.
If you want to run and hide and cant defend it on the issues it puts forward and engage in how the faults or good should be emphasized then it is a shallow argument of little worth.
Many here have put forth specific questions about the bill. Others have chosen not to answer and just say words of nonspecific generalities of how one position is better than another. Fully in that time avoiding any scrutiny of what the bill actually contains.
If this bill is so good why can’t the questions be answered and countered?
Review this whole thread going back for multiple days and tell me where I am wrong please.
I would love to have my eyes opened that I have missed something in my interpretation of the events transpiring here.
Merlin–
…Until this issue appeared, I can not recall a situation except for troll takedowns that AJ responded to his regular commenters with things that could be construed as potentially being snarky rather than substansive…
You read my mind. It reminds me of one of the liberal blogs, where you just resort to name-calling if they don’t agree with you. “Amnesty Hypochondriacs”? Give me a break.
BTW, some time ago, I heard that Lindsay Graham was a poor boy who adopted his sister when he was still a kid himself. His parents had died and he did not want her going into the system. He went into the military and took care of her and got himself an education and became a JAG lawyer. He has been honest, he is not a crook and it is tacky as hell for people to treat him like a traitor or a fool just because he does not say how high when they say jump. The man has shown some character and that is more than I can for some of his detractors.
On the other side of the debate we have people doing their level best to destroy the Republican leadership, alienate an entire demographic from the party forever, and rant and rave about illegal immigration after years of ignoring the problem. And so far I have not heard one single viable alternative. Nothing…just bitch bitch bitch.
Sometimes I wonder if some of the hater mongers I hear are actually getting paid by the Democrats, because they are the ones who will benefit from all this.
Warning
No Tespassing
A buffalo herd exists behind this fence. Survivors will be prosecuted.
MerlinsOS2
I still have a boxed OS2 set in the garage. Loved it. Pity IBM didn’t keep it up.
Sadly, I don’t think our Government will prosecute SSN fraud. Even though that is a felony, I don’t think they will prosecute it. Hope I’m wrong. I would really love to be wrong about that. It would go a long way to restore my faith in our Government. And that would be a good thing. A very, very, very good thing.
But no bill will ever entice the thugs, criminals, gang bangers, and terrorists out of the shadows. Armed men, as always, will need to go in and get those people.
Hmmm…. now that I think about it, if there was a bill that guaranteed that they would not be prosecuted, and offered them a free plane ticket to the destination of their choice (outside the U.S. and all territories), where a brand new Ferrari, in the color of their choice, with a suitcase full of money sitting on the passenger seat, was waiting for them, THAT might get some takers. But that, or something similar, would be about the only thing.
the polls on this issue were settled 40 years ago and have remained constant throughout. starting in 1965 we had a “major immigration reform bill”. 10 years later there were new bills to thinker with the prior”historic” bill. kennedy usually gives the boilerplate speech. every 20 years there is a new, new “historic” bill to replace everything prior. kennedy gives the same speech in modern vernacular. ten years later there is a new thinkering. now 20 years after the last major immigration bill we have our new, super improved, the last one ever needed reform bill. from 1990-95 we had the barbara jordan commission on immigration policy. they all came to the same conclusion–enforce the border and build a fence.
all the while the polls remain the same—the overwhemling majority of americans beg the governments, state and local, to close the border to all walk in traffic. every year the government, dem or repub, refuses. every year now 500,000 to one million stroll across the border and take up illegal residence. meanwhile we waste our time on what shades of lipstick to put on this pig.
sooner or later we will put a fence up. the question is, will it be to keep people out or in. the bill before the senate does neither. however we have at least gotten the president to acknowledge that there are valid reasons not to trust him or the government so he’s appropriating the funds for the fence etc pronto! assuming the bill passes the senate i’m trusting the house will demand the entire completion before any other parts of the bill come into existence. while they are building the fence they can practice with the id cards, background check software and the like. the fence should take two years. you want all the goodies? build it faster.
as to the repub party–they have had a fork stuck in them since they started spending like drunk a-holes six years ago. hillary as president is almost a forgone conclusion. she will get, and she was going to get no matter what, 90% of the black, hispanic and jewish vote. that makes up 20% of the electorate. she simply needs 30.1% of the remaining white and other vote. rudi or whomever is going to have a very difficult time running up that hill, especially after she announces in the spring her free healthcare for everyone. however it can still be done and i actually think a presidential candidate that stresses border security as the number one component of immigration policy will increase their chances.
we shall see.
Merlin:
What I hate are the people who want to ignore the fact that they do not have a plan of their own while they do everything they can to wreck the process.
They are like that backseat driver that never learned to drive but will not shut up and let someone else do it.
I am sure there will be things about any bill the Senate comes up with that I will not like. I am also sure the House bill will be the same. I am also sure that when the two bills go into conference what will come out will look a lot different than what went in. I support a compromise, that is how our government works. I am beginning to think there are some folks on the right who might be more comfortable with something a tad more dogmatic than representative government.
Now, it is completely unrealistic to say that unless you support every single aspect of a compromise bill in the Senate then the entire process must die right there. If that was par for the course then no bill would ever be passed for anything.
I have never heard of people saying you have to download the entire bill and read every freaking word to even discuss the issue. Never, not for any other bill or any other issue. This whole topic has just been toxic for the right and has brought out the worst in them.
The people who want to kill this bill have never comes to terms with what dealing with 12 million people would actually entail. They have never come terms with the millions who came here some other way than the border. They have never come to terms with the millions of Americans who hire and work with the illegals. They have never come to terms with what it would do to the economy to just pull all those people out of the labor force. They have never come to terms with any of these details. They have never come to terms with what it would take to deport all these people, how many law enforcement people we would need, how many laws we would have to change or just ignore to begin to bring all these people in. They have never even come to terms with what it takes in the real world to construct a 700 mile fence.
They have never even begun to come up with a plan of their own. All they say is enforce the laws and build a wall…. wham bam thank you ma’am.
But when it comes to the people who actually have to write the bills, then of course these same people are positively anal. They dissect and what if every single aspect of the bill, they exaggerate and extrapolate and go on and on and on about every single possibility and even a few impossibilities.
Sooner or later, they will have to do better than that. They will have to move beyond rabble rousing and grousing and bitching about the traitors and betrayers and come up with something specific.
But I do not see that happening. Demagoguery is what this is about, not policy.
If the USA does not restrict immigration it will be destroyed by two factors: 1) culture replacement which will transform the White American culture of the USA into Mexican Lite or worse and 2) lowering of mean IQ which will result in a dropping of the smart fraction of the population, the fraction that permits a civilization to flourish (1), to a point where it becomes a third world country.
Atlantin
(1)COGNITIVE DECLINE: THE IRREDUCIBLE LEGACY OF OPEN BORDERS(www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/imm.htm)Here