Jun 16 2007
New Immigration Poll – GOP Damaged
Well, it would seem the goodwill of America has been poisoned by the relentless PR campaign of the amnesty hypochondriacs. We seem to have found the magic scapegoat for all our woes: illegal immigrants. A new WSJ Poll Shows a big drop off in support of the immigration plan dealing with illegals currently here (see here and here). But at a major price to the GOP (as predicted):
Now I would like to get your reaction to several parts of a possible new immigration bill. Please tell me whether you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each of the following parts of this bill.
All immigrants who apply to be U.S. citizens would be required to learn English
Strongly Favor: 73
Somewhat Favor: 16
Somewhat Oppose: 6
Strongly Oppose: 4
Not Sure: 1Fav/Opp: 89/10
Imposing new fines on businesses that hire illegal immigrants
Strongly Favor: 57
Somewhat Favor: 17
Somewhat Oppose: 11
Strongly Oppose: 12
Not Sure: 3Fav/Opp: 74/23
Increasing border security by building a fence along part of the U.S. border with Mexico and by hiring and training more border patrol agents
Strongly Favor: 44
Somewhat Favor: 21
Somewhat Oppose: 12
Strongly Oppose: 19
Not Sure: 4Fav/Opp: 65/31
Immigrants who want to come to the U.S. to work and who are not already here could apply for a two-year work visa that they could renew up to two times
Strongly Favor: 38
Somewhat Favor: 41
Somewhat Oppose: 6
Strongly Oppose: 12
Note sure: 3Fav/Opp: 79/18
Allowing illegal workers who arrived in the U.S. to apply for permanent U.S. residency if they return to their home country within eight years and pay additional fines
Strongly Favor: 13
Somewhat Favor: 22
Somewhat Oppose: 20
Strongly Oppose: 35
Note Sure: 10Fav/Opp: 35/55
Allowing illegal workers who arrived in the U.S. before January first of this year to receive an automatic work visa if they pay a fine of around five thousand dollars
Strongly Favor: 10
Somewhat Favor: 20
Somewhat Oppose: 18
Strongly Oppose: 46
Not sure: 6Fav/Opp: 30/64
Of course, the real question on dealing with illegal immigrants is a fine, back taxes and a background check for a violent criminal record. But despite the misleading question the news is not good. The GOP, striving for something harsh enough to entice illegal aliens NOT to come forward and register with the government, are hell bent on retaining the status quo and all its problems. The whole point of fines and back taxes was to require a reaonable (by all other laws on our books) payment of debt to society but enough of an enticement so that these people come forward and get jobs that include all the required taxes so that they too pay their fair share. The problem is rounding up people will cost a lot more than some small set who get benefits.
But today’s GOP is not run on logic, it is run on hate. And it is paying a price:
Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party’s nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election––that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN,” ASK:) And do you strongly prefer a (Democrat/Republican), or is your preference not that strong?
Democrat
Strongly: 42
Not Strongly: 10
Republican
Strongly 23
Not Strongly 8Dem/Rep: 52/31
Strong Dem/Rep: 42/23
Almost 2-1 against the GOP. I would say that is a lot of damage when usually these numbers have a gap of only 5-10%, with the Reps down usually. The damage inflicted by the GOP on itself has been stunning. The Dems have inflicted damage on themselves too. People are ready to toss the Pols out and start fresh. The question on whether people support their own representative or want someone new is 40/48 in favor of someone new. That number is usually very high in support of incumbants (its always someone elses representative causing the trouble). But somehow the Dems are not as bad off as the Reps (though Congress is).
The fact is the damage to the GOP is done. And is it surprising? Again, all I have to do is sample the conservative blogs to show what kind of person represents the base:
And those that support this monstrosity will be looking for new jobs. The Senators that supported it will be next on the unemployment line.
Bush may go down in history as a traitor, but he won’t care, he’ll be living the high life in Paraguay.
3 posted on 06/16/2007 12:17:22 AM PDT by janetgreen
So this POS legislation proves beyond a shodow of a doubt that our government truly no longer serves by the consent of the governed.
According to the Founders, we now have the right to abolish said government.You bring the guillotines, I’ll bring the pikes!
6 posted on 06/16/2007 12:23:12 AM PDT by FierceDraka (I’m not against the government. The government is against ME.)
“El Presidente will be having steaks on the grill each evening while the rest of us will be left wondering what the hell happened???â€
We can wonder over that while we are spending hours in line waiting for our govt. cheese handout.
21 posted on 06/16/2007 2:01:55 AM PDT by Bogtrotter52 (Reading DU daily so you won’t hafta)
Peruse the insanity at will. Bush and Congress were duly elected and given the power to do what they think is right. People who disagree and then propose coup d’etat’s are not Americans. In fact I would not be surprised if the mob mentality gripping the right is not being stoked by people to help them in their credibility self-destruction. The funny thing is, the same Chicken Little cries resulted from the 1980’s bill and all the immigration that occurred has NOT destroyed this country. But the hate from the partisans has. They have lost all self control. And for those of us who have not lost our minds over documenting the undocumented workers here it is becoming uglier. And the sad thing is these haters who pretend that is the American way have lost all their perspective. It is now only ‘American’ to be like them.
The bill could pass, and it might be the right thing to do to get past this insanity. It is either pass it now and show the wingnuts the sky will not fall, or leave the entire mess in place for another 10-30 years. Because this issue is looking like a 3rd rail issue like Social Security reform. Thanks to the GOP we will could be stuck with the current mess for the foreseeable future. Either way, thanks to the GOP we are likely to be stuck with a Democrat President unless someone like Rudy Guiliani or Mitt Romney can hang on and win the primary. The problem is, the GOP may have distilled itself down to the point moderates do not participate at all.
Instead of learning the lesson of Pete Wilson in CA, and how long it took to get someone like Arnold Schwarzenneger to get the (R) back into a statewide office, we are probably seeing that mistake now being repeated on a national level. It was over illegal immigrants Wilson lost CA to the GOP for a decade. Sad, but true. We never learn our lessons of history. Bush better beat al-Qaeda in Iraq in the next year or the lesson of listening to partisans (left and right) will be a very, very painful one. People forget the comprehensive bill was designed to efficiently deal with immigration, minimizing law enforcement requirements and leave those for our war on terror. It was not meant to maximize punishment.
The bill was more enticement than punishment so we could optimize the resources between illegals and terrorists. We want the hay stack to come forward to make it easier to find the needles. The more who come forward the less effort required to deal with those we need to find who should be out of here. It is now way out of balance and the whole thing is going to leave us vulnerable. Not what the GOP wanted – but it is the price they were willing to pay to go after nannies and cooks and painters.
Update: A lot of readers keeping bringing up marginal details and asking me to address them as if they are important. They do not understand my position (though I have posted on it many times). The reason I am were I am is because of the priorities I have selected. I am not for maximizing the punishment of illegal aliens. What I am for is an efficient and rapid fix to our national security – thus I come down to a different set of conclusions.
The problem is the amnesty hypochondriacs think we have unlimited law enforcement resources or unlimited time to deal with the problem of illegal immigrants and who may be among them. In a world without al-Qaeda I would possibly agree.
But in a world with al-Qaeda my priorities are to rapidly separate the good from the bad and get the bad outta here before they go radical. Those who push this issue off until years later are allowing a dangerous criminal element to remain here and possibly be recruited by al-Qaeda. That is and has been my top concern.
The concept is one of triage, where you select what you can do to save what is salvageable. In my opinion we need to optimize our defense, not our punishment of illegals. We cannot focus on illegals at the expense of national security. So I am all for a path where we entice those who have not done anything seirously wrong and look to be law abiding to come forward and step aside. Once this is done we have made our national security problem orders of magnitude easier. Where to put our resources – nannies versus terrorists – it is a pretty basic question. With limited resources that is the choice. Worrying about silly things like touchbacks (more resources required we do not have) is just not worth the effort when you add up the problem and the resources we have to deal with the problem. Nannies or terrorists.
This has always been the basis of my equations – from day one. Maximize the transition of tolerable illegals to legal and monitored, while deporting the bad apples ASAP. Bad apples are potential terrorist recruits. When that is your driving strategy the bill makes total sense. When something else is your goal these priorities fall to the wayside.
Oh, and insulting and haranguing this subculture population so that the feel isolated and disrespected (like immigrants in Europe) only provides an excuse to finally give into terrorist overtures. Offering them to come into the open gives them one set of motivations. Offering them hate and punishment gives them another set of motivations. Cold, hard, unavoidable logic. Usually the best answer in a fight for your life. Leaving potential recruits for al-Qaeda on our streets is pretty dumb. Giving them excuse to sign up is suicidal.
There is no reason to wait on culling the 12 million illegals here into two camps: the relatively safe and the known problems (which are then deported). There is no rational excuse to delay this process of culling out those who cannot stay here any longer than possible. And what about insulting them, their families and their culture (e.g., 3rd world toilets) while you let them stay around longer? …… Needless to say I am woefully unimpressed with the GOP right now.
And I think it is this kind of logic that drives Bush and many conservative leaders. Unlike the armchair experts sitting at home behind a computer screen, our leaders see the daily security threats. So why would you go against your party and do something that spells political disaster? How hard is that one to figure out. You sacrifice what you must to protect the nation – including party. And no, they will not tell us if the telling opens up our national security secrets and defenses. I may be wrong – but at least I am erring on ‘the conservative side’.
I am sorry AJ but you logic makes no sense. If you have a cut on your arm do you stitch it up, no you stop the bleeding then you stitch it up. As for the response that more people prefer a democrat in the white house or a republican I ask you to point to any poll in the last thirty years that showed people wanted republicans to control the white house or the congress for that matter. I wish you luck finding one but you won’t.
Even still most polls show that Hillary wouldn’t win a heads up match against any of the top four republicans in the race. That would seem to disprove the blanket poll question of republican vs. democrat.
The obvious game being played here that too many are missing is Harry Reid doesn’t give a rats butt about the bill in front of him.
He only wants the right to bleed to ensure greater power in the next election.
Then he can champion his retreat with valor from the new Viet Nam.
And too many suckers are buying in to it.
DO IT. The insane base of the GOP self destructed over the insane ramblings of their know-it-all pundits. I will put a Malkin Bushbasher up against a MoveOn any day now. I will put the know-it-all elites that utter such as:
David Frum: “I always believed as a speechwriter that if you could persuade the president to commit himself to certain words, he would feel himself committed to the ideas that underlay those words. And the big shock to me has been that although the president said the words, he just did not absorb the ideas. And that is the root of, maybe, everything.”
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2006/12/neocons200612?currentPage=3
What absolute freakin gall. Who the heck is Frum? Did I vote for him? And all those closet Bushbashers that have quietly bashed from Paul at Powerline to the Peggy Noonan’s more open sneering. And now the Good Capt thinks he knows so much he should warn the President to ‘tend to his base’. Give me a break.
I am still waiting for one honest Pug to step up and tell me that they did not know George W Bush’s position the FIRST time they voted for him……..much less the SECOND. After all……..Malkin and the hate stirrers already had Polipundit screaming “Traitor” at the top of his lungs. So you all missed that little tibbit of news?
I don’t think so. I say you are lying as you point your finger. Just exactly like the first elite, Bushbashing crap over Miers…….you knew the President’s position. I do not hear a single word directed to who should be smashed into the ground over all of these fiascos. Pug Congress. We had Pug Congress that sat on their fat azzes and let DIMS trash the WH and nominees constantly. They had the POWER to work on this 40 year problem. They punted. Of course. Lousy under-the-desk spineless critters that deserve going back to the wilderness.
So you did not know Bush’s position in 2000 when he was attending Mex rallies and gaining votes? Give me a freakin break and quit lying about it.
In all reality yes I knew what Bush’s position on immigration was when I voted for him. I choose not to bash the President over this, I disagree with him on this issue, I find it tragic that he is on the wrong side of this issue. That said, yes I knew his position and that’s why I call, fax, email the republican senators that have talked a tough game on immigration until now. The hypocrisy is by the liberal republicans that support this bill….
Rudy has issues that go against the conservative grain but many still support him overall.
But if you think for a New York minute that if he pushes the non conservative points of his agenda he will not encounter a similar backlash then I want to play poker against you.
Well AJ, you have placed me in a serious dilemma with this posting.
The WSJ did a poll, which you cite, where they ask specific questions related to the immigration bill. And, in the same poll, they ask whether or not you are more likely to vote Republican.
What you want the reader to conclude is that “A” and “B” are somehow related.
They are not. This is a logical fallacy. Depending upon your reference, this fallacy is known as –
a. post hoc ergo propter hoc
or
b. confusing cause and effect
Allow me to demonstrate –
A. Jack gets a chain letter which says that bad things will happen to him if he doesn’t forward it to 50 of his friends. Jack promptly throws the chain letter in the trash.
B. The next day, Jack falls and breaks his ankle.
Did “A” cause “B”? What evidence is there that the two are even remotely related?
Here’s another example –
A. A WSJ journal poll shows that 66% of those polled disapprove of the job President Bush is doing (yes, that would be question 3 of the poll you cite).
B. The same WSJ journal poll finds that people are more likely to vote for a Democrat nominee for President in 2008 (question number 11, page 13, of the same poll – thanks for the link!).
Using your convoluted logic, I could say that President Bush’s unpopularity will cost the Republicans the 2008 Presidential election.
So here’s my dilemma. I need some help with this one, AJ.
I’m racking my brain trying to come up with possible reasons for your posting. And I can only come up with two possibilities –
1. You are a smart fella and you are intentionally trying to mislead your readers. Not cool, by the way.
2. You aren’t the smart and you actually believe the horse sh*t you’re shoveling.
Is there a third possibility that I am overlooking?
I can’t see a third possibility, and I am having a hard time buying option number 2 because in the same poll that you reference, you failed to mention question number 10, where the respondents ranked immigration as the 3rd highest priority and the war in Iraq as the highest priority.
I just got back again, and am too lazy to read the whole thread; if this was discussed already, sorry!
Want to get REALLY depressed about our borders, and Immigration mess, read this article, and all the links.
http://counterterrorismblog.org/
Absolute sheer insanity!
This is certainly a worthwhile endeavor, but either the politicians don’t understand what is truly needed to protect us, or they have an agenda more about creating an illusion of security than actually providing the security to which we are entitled.
I’ll take door number 2 for $100 Dale.
But I could be giving the dipsticks in D.C. more credit than they deserve.
And, that isn’t that depressing really. If you REALLY want to get depressed, you need to take a peak into the mentality of the so called “elites”.
Try this. Go to the Foreign Affairs web site, http://www.foreignaffairs.org
In the upper left corner is a “Search Archives” box. Type in sovereignty in that search box. Then read the results from that search.
Now THAT is some scary sh*t.
Go Owl!! Great post!
Terrye: I read halfway thru the thread now, and had enough!
I see you still haven’t changed.
The sad part, is you are are exactly like AJ and “Blu”, etc., you people don’t even KNOW WHY you support the bill, you just do!
Then, you try to fit the “facts” in around your preconceived notions!
At least R05, LE, myself, Bikerken, Patrick, Apache, and Merlin, have READ the damn bill, and actually know what it contains, it’s weaknesses, and what a scam it is; the THIRD time in the past 42 years Teddy Kennedy is pulling the wool over the eyes of a stupid public, and gullible people like yourself, AJ, Blu, etc.!
All of “us”, have quoted the bill ad naseum, pointed out weaknesses, asked SPECIFIC questions of you all, and instead of answers, we get more posts, and in AJ’s case, more “analysis” (i.e. his personal opinion, spun as analysis), refusing to answer the DIRECT and SPECIFIC questions, attacking us all even more, and congratulating each other, for being on the right side!
Sad Fact; you all don’t even KNOW THE FACTS; you just avoid any/all discussion of the FACTS.
AJ, in another thread I just saw, actually had the Gall to say he’s posted his reasons many times, for supporting this bill, and he won’t do so again.
The actual FACT is, he has NOT done that, AT ALL, except to make some vague references to teh fact that “Republicans/Coservatives” are “finished”, because they’re not supporting this bill, and thus Hispanics are going to vote overwhelmingly for the Democrats now!
Wow, way to stick it to the old “integrity” there, AJ!
Talk about trying to BUY “votes”: “Hey, I support this bill, so we can fool all the dumb Hispanics into voting for us!
Wow, nice integrity, nice ethics; we already have that crap doing on in DC with our so-called “representatives”; it’d have been nice to see someone talk a principled stand!
Here’s another piece of “irony” on this whole bill, that you all/AJ are ignoring.
The Republicans are now boasting, that part of their effort to tighten the bill up, and thus make it palatable to the Republican Senators to vote for it, was to add an Amendment for $4.4 Billion dollars for Enforcement and Border Security NOW!
Imagine that; why did that have to be added AFTER THE FACT!
That means, because it WASN’T IN THERE!
Just as LE and Apache, have been telling you all along; it was a SCAM, with NO FUNDS for Enforcement, more Border Patrol Agents, funding of the Fence, etc.; IT WASN’T IN THERE: and had to be added AFTER THE FACT!
Ruminate on that a bit, and talk your way out of that then!
Like I said…2 bald men fighting over a comb.
Let me get this straight now….we should not pass this bill because the new laws that might do some good will not be enforced anyway ie..given past attempts.
And we should not build a fence, or toughen our borders or speak of deporting people here illegally, because “there are just too many of them” and “more coming everyday”, it won’t work and we’ll never find them anyway.
Like I said…2 bald men…fighting over a comb.
Owl:
Whoever you are, bless you. This is me, buying you a drink… *clink*
Need sleep now.
Terrye–
…Well then if nothing is what you want smll stop bitching…
You really need to take a reading comprehension workshop–where did I say I want nothing? I said that if the only choices AT THE MOMENT are this trash bill and nothing, I will take nothing. I never said I want nothing.
Never mind. I doubt if you’ll understand that, either.
Have been on the road, so missed much of the debate.
Atlantin ,
That’s some strange stuff! Cultures have always mixed. New civilizations and races are created. Neuroscience has a hard time understanding consciousness, so psychologists are “making it up” with IQ standards of “general intelligence.” You seem to be using a bogus theory to underestimate an entire ethnic group.
I was unaware that David Frum and Michelle Malkin were posting here.
Holy cow!!! AJ, you have hit the big time!!
Hi Michelle!!
What a frickin loon you are owl.
I am sooooooooooooo tired of people reading something on some other web site and then bringing their emotional baggage generated from the other web site to this blog.
Grow up already!
That’s like having a bad day at the office and being really pissed at the boss, so when you get home you kick the dog.
Real mature.
Macker,
Anything else to say about the tools needed by employers? Now that I schooled you on what is currently available?
I would like to recoup my expenses for educating you. Is there an address where I can send the bill?
Dale, don’t be fooled again! That 4.4 billion dollars is to come from ‘the proceeds of the fines that are paid by the former illegals who are applying for citizenship’! Tony Snow let that little gem slip on the Laura Ingraham show. Now remember, the fine was not applicable to those just applying for Z-visas, it was only going to be levied against those who applied for citizenship. And that was not going to happen until all of the ‘triggers’ were met, one of which was to build at least three hundred some miles of fence. So what they have done is to say we will pay to build fence after we collect the money from fines that will not be paid until after we build the fence. This whole bill is just one big damned lie.
And Terrye, all you ever do is bitch about other people bitchin. Did someone slip a mirror over your computer screen or what?
The people who wrote this bill…don’t believe that our border can be secured. They believe the fence will be “divisive” and of course resented by our southern neighbors, not to mention the thousands of illegals who cross our southern border each and every day. It would also be “dangerous” to them. It sends the “wrong message”. Some of them even called arguments over need for a fence bigoted and racist! How DARE we suggest to put a bra on the giant teet!
There are some good things in this bill, and some bad things in this bill. The bad part is, it does absolutely nothing in a serious way….(just token paybacks to buy votes), to suggest that we are going to secure our borders and provide for serious enforcment/deportation of illegals. By that I mean anybody here illegally and by serious enforcement I mean actually deporting those who are “deportable” by law. I’m including..AFTER the amensty party…ie..those who choose to remain iilegal or come here illegally after…it’s STILL the same problem we have NOW —a very large number of illegals who are now deportable but aren’t being deported. Those are serious questions/issues with most Americans…and THEY aren’t buying this bill without feeling that those issues are addressed. I can tell you for sure..calling them biggots or telling them it simply cannot be done ..or that it’s not necessary because it won’t work…isn’t very reassuring to them that this bill takes that into consideration. (nor does the language of the bill)
Then..there are some good things in this bill..in that it at least recognizes ,given the number of illegals we already have here, that part of the solution is to develop new processes that discourage and make uncomfortable living life here illegally and trying to work here illegally. Making the workplace the center focus for “enforcement” would further seperate legal work places from illegal ones (instead of them being comingled) making them easier to discern. Of course, in some ways..we have that now with sweatshops, day laborer gatherings, etc. They know where they are…we just don’t always enforce the laws we write. Futher, you are more likely to catch illegals looking for work than just randomly patrolling or at a movie, or other place. Of course..where they live might also be a good place to check. But, I digress again.
I think even most opponents of this bill recognize that but get too caught up in arguing over the fence and other issues…because…proponents of this bill have COMPELTELY screwed up by introducing this bill “not” as a security bill, NOT as a deterrent by outlining these provisions as deterrents (as I have here), but as a central focus…the path to citizenship and legal status bill for illegals to stay here and work legally. We can’t really build a fence that will stop “everybody”. We can’t deport “everybody”. So, instead..lets just do something good..for all the people who have come here illegally, and help ourselves at the same time..by not having to actually fail by trying.
The major reason for this disconnect is because the language of this bill, and the way it has been presented, sounds just like the same defeatist, socialistic, etc. crap that comes out of the far left all the time. We’ve already lost, that’s why we should not build a fence…because it won’t work, it’s already failed before it’s been built. Lets just all get along and share. We can’t just deport people…etc..etc. We can’t do it or shouldn’t do it because it would be difficult, beyond biggoted and racist. What would people think? etc..etc.
As Dr John once said….”Ahmm familiar with yo paticular brand of stank”.
Perhaps, if you would re-tone this bill placing the emphasis on language, etc..for it’s deterrent factor to illegal immigration…and how all the provisions of the bill play to that theme…you might find that the comb is no longer needed.
Signed,
Baldy
Why the hell do people like Dale and Apache etc write to me and expect me to do as they instruct? Half the time I only pay half attention to them anyway.
Sometimes I read them and sometimes I just think, it is the drama queen is wanting to “debate”. What a hoot.
Debate my ass, they do not even understand or care how our government works. They just want to humiliate and bully other people.
There are several things about the bill I might change, such as the touchback provisions, I think they are unnecessary. Especially if the person involved is from some place like China. I think that more efforts should be made to deal with the gangs in the country whose members are actually illegals, etc.
But if you just show your ass and refuse to compromise on anything then none of that will happen because you will kill the process and then more and more people will come to understand that there are people on the right who really do not care all that much about illegal immigration, they just want an issue they can raise hell about.
That is what I believe. A Senate bill is not an end product, it is a start and I have read enough from the hardliners to come to the conclusion that they really don’t want a start.
I think they are out to take over the GOP and run the other Republicans out of their own party. They want to destroy alliances with moderates and alienate minorities.
Linda Chavez made the point that 63% of the Mexican Americans in Texas are at least third generation. Her own family has been here for centuries…believe it or not people like Linda Chavez do not owe the likes of Tom Tancredo anything. Nothing. Nada. And calling her names is just the beginning for the hardliners.
The drama queens can turn the party into a soap opera if they want to, but so far the actual elections have shown that when it comes to rounding up voters they suck. The hardliners think they are the base, I am not so sure about that. I think they are the loud people, that does not make them the base.
So now will come a remake of the 92 election. Whatever would Hillary do without you guys. You may very well make her the next president and if you do, I hope the real Republicans like owl and biglsufan who have been in the party for years…tell you shut the hell up or go find another political party to wreck because they are the base.
And take that silly Michelle Malkin with you. This whole thing is just a ego gratifying gravy train to people like her.