Jun 20 2007
GOP Losing ’08 Presidential To ALL Democrat Alternatives
How bad is the self destruction of the GOP over immigration? For the first time a poll shows any Democrat, including John Edwards, is able to beat any Republican in head-to-head matchups:
Gallup: Edwards 50 – Giuliani 45
RCP Avg: Edwards +1.4%Gallup: Edwards 50 – McCain 44
RCP Avg: Edwards +0.3%Gallup: Edwards 61 – Romney 32
RCP Avg: Edwards +23.5%
We should all thank the amnesty hypochondriacs for bringing this debacle about because the only major item to hit the news and impact these numbers (where the Reps use to lead in many matches) was the immigration bill.
Go back to this site and see how the numbers have shifted since only June. Clinton has seen a +13 point shift against Guiliani. Clinton moved +10 against McCain (proving the damage is GOP-wide, not against proponents of the bill). Obama has made progress since February, showing a +14 against Guiliani, a +2 against McCain (again, showing that it cannot be due to being a proponent of the immigration bill).
The others do not have comparison numbers in this poll. But if other polls show the same across the board shift for the GOP then we can admit the self destruction of the GOP is working its magic.
It is madness AJ. The hardliners as we have seen and are single issue on this do not even give us shorterm political advantage.
See ex Rep Hayworth of Arizona
See Randy Graff of Ariz
See Sen Allen in Virgian
See Sen Santorium in Penn
All had other issues but many of these folks made immigration the issue in an attempt to to save themselves. The immigration hypochondriacs that so promised to show and save the day did not. However many hispanics sickened by the Tancredo Minutemen faction did show their displeasure
As to the guy says at the end of the Bridge over the kwai Madness
We got some screwy HTML.
How bad is the self destruction of the GOP over immigration?
False assertion with no fact to back it up.
Prove that the results of that poll are the byproduct of immigration and not the AMAZINGLY UNPOPULAR WAR IN IRAQ.
Get a clue.
Harold,
Thanx – what else is new?
G.O.P. Meltdown
It’s only going to get worse. Dems are looking to pick up as many as 9 Senate seats the way I hear it, and Joe Lieberman is looking to get made an irrelevancy.
Look for Iraq, Iran, Israel, Palestine to get worse – plus the ongoing multiple oversight investigations will start to bear fruit about the same time the failure of the Surge is finally admitted.
Look for Bush support to get down to Laura and Barney — and Barney’s looking for the exits.
“Prove that the results of that poll are the byproduct of immigration and not the AMAZINGLY UNPOPULAR WAR IN IRAQ.”
That is not the point. THis issue should be saving all those that went out and disagreed against the President. Where are those numbers?
Your political numbers sadly are infalted and largely are viewed as bigger than they are because of astroturfing and talk radio. They did not show to save Rep Hayworth of Ariz. They did not show to save Sen Sanotrium of Penn. They did not show to save Randy Graffof Arizona. They did not show to defeat the Democrat Gov of Arizona. They did not show to save Sen Allen of Virginia.
The thing is this. People want this problem solved. The real big emotion is on the anti bill side. Yet we are not seeing that having results. Why? I mean there has been a PR campaign to make this bill as popular as the “black death” and still we are not seeing anything meanigful that shows following a hearline postion gives us even short term political results.
We saw that last year. That is the reason why people like Lott are toughing it out right now. THey no the polls and the long term trends
I have heard some folks on the right make all kinds of crazy claims without anything to back them up lately.
I used to love Mark Steyn, he was one of my favorite pundits. I thought he was funny and smart. And then he makes some inane comment about how all the people here legally will be deported if the bill passes, without anything at all to back that up. I was so disappointed in him.
I read over at Big Lizards how Hugh Hewitt pulled a Michael Moore and edited some of McCain’s comments to change their meaning and once again I was disappointed.
I am passed being disappointed in people like Malkin and Coulter, but this debate has brought out the absolute worse in the right and it has made them look out of control and bizarre.
Calling Bush Jorge Buscho and raving about a conspiracy to merge the United States and Mexico and all kinds of stuff like that when the country has been faced with this problem for years does not inspire confidence in people.
So yeah, it is just one more nail. The fighting and name calling and conspiracy theories are wearing on people.
Most of the people raising the most hell are a minority suffering from something that looks and sounds like mass hysteria and they are making the Republicans look out of control.
I saw the following over at the gallup site. They listed several polls, including a recent one on June 6. This was what they called the Bottom Line:
The pattern of Americans’ attitudes toward illegal immigration and in particular toward the immigration bill now being debated in the Senate is complex.
A good deal of previous research has shown that Americans support the general provisions that are included in the bill, including increased border security and some type of pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants already in this country — providing that they meet certain requirements.
But the political reality is that the current debate on the bill agreed to in principle by Senate leaders and President Bush (and which is now being argued about in the Senate) is taking place in an environment in which the average American simply is not tuned in. Only 18% of Americans are following the news about the bill closely, and almost 6 in 10 say that they don’t know enough about the proposed legislation to have an opinion about it.
Those Americans who are following the debate closely are highly likely to be opponents of the bill. Among those who know enough to have an opinion, the bill is opposed by almost a three to one margin. Among those who say they are following the news about the bill very closely, opposition outweighs support by almost a four to one margin.
Politically speaking, it would not be surprising to find that elected representatives who hear from their constituents are highly likely to be getting negative feedback about the bill. The majority who may favor the bill in principle are not paying much attention at the moment and are generally likely to be silent. House and Senate members, therefore, must in some ways make a decision between responding to the minority who are making their voices heard, or the majority whose views are measured in polls, but who are not taking the time nor making the effort to voice their sentiments in any other way.
In other words Republicans need to get behind their people and back them up if they want to beat the Democrats.
Having people like Malkin running posts headlining dump Graham dump Lott dump McCAin etc does not help one little bit when these people are Republicans.
Accusing your leadership of treason will not inspire people to vote for them.
That should be obvious, especially when the people screaming the loudest seem to be completely devoid of any new ideas themselves.
This is the link for the information above.
soothsayer, considering the fact that the Democrats in the Congress have lower numbers than Bush right now I would not be crowing too soon. I am old enough to remember when the Democrats thought that Jimmy Carter would be a two term president. Look how that turned out.
There is an old saying, beware your heart’s desire for surely you will get it.
That is not the point.
Bull crap!!!
AJ linked the general unpopularity of the GOP, as illustrated by the results of a head to head match up, to immigration.
This is yet another example of AJ’s favorite form of logical fallacy – Questionable Cause (or Confusing Cause and Effect or Post Hoc).
His logic is so flawed, even I am embarrassed for him!!
The war in Iraq is HUGELY unpopular.
The immigration bill is HUGELY unpopular.
Have no fear immigration bill supporters. Here comes AJ to the rescue. We will pretend, against countless polls proving the opposite, that people really want this immigration bill. And, as if that isn’t enough, we’ll ignore the HUGELY unpopular war in Iraq.
Then, and this is the best part, AJ will irrationally link the poll results to the immigration bill.
I never cease to be amazed at how poor his logic and reasoning abilities are. But I will give him credit. His rationalization ability is unparalleled.
“It’s the war, stupid”
Take care of two birds with one sharp-hitting stone:
“Support Ron Paul.”
AJ keep up the fight
The party is not going down to permanent minority status without a fight.
If our leaders hold and there are more promising indications that this could pass the House then we will have dodged a bullet. Then we can get back to fighting the real enemy which is Radical Islam instead of worrying about hotel maids.
AJ keep up the fight
The party is not going down to permanent minority status without a fight.
If our leaders hold and there are more promising indications that this could pass the House then we will have dodged a bullet. Then we can get back to fighting the real enemy which is Radical Islam instead of worrying about hotel maids.
I would not support Ron Paul under any circumstances. None. I think the man is a loon.
And I do not think it is the war. I think some people in the socalled base are just saying that in order to avoid taking responsibility for their behavior.
Lieberman won in Conn, and he supports the war. Most of the Democrats who did win were not in the mold of Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid, they were moderate or conservative Democrats and they will not abandon the troops.
The war has been going on for some time. We were at war when Bush won his second term with a record number of votes.
I am not saying people are not tired of hearing about the war, I am sure they are, but I don’t think we would be seeing such a sudden shift in national election polling over the war. That has been around too long.
It should also be remembered that many, in fact most of the people who supported the war are conservatives who also had a cow over the whole immigration issue. Not too mention Dubai, Miers, and God only knows what else. For instance, Rush and Malkin and Hewitt and Schussel etc are not exactly doves. So they are in no position to be snotty about the war now.
And then we have Ron Paul, throwback to the 19th century and a man who likes to talk about blowback in regards to the murder of thousands of our citizens. A blame America first Republican. Yep, that is just what we need.
AJ: my GOD man, you’re doing it again, grasping at straws, taking things out of context, misinterpretations/misrepresentations, all to prove YOUR point!
To wit:
You said that ALL Democrats are head of ALL Republicans now, and then cite only the Edwards vs 3 Reps, to prove your point, even though you show the link!
But, if you actually READ the cite, like I did this morning, before you did “your analysis”; this is what it ACTUALLY shows:
Gallup: Clinton 50 – Giuliani 46
RCP Avg: Giuliani +0.5%
Gallup: Clinton 49 – McCain 46
RCP Avg: Clinton +0.3%
Gallup: Clinton 53 – Romney 40
RCP Avg: Clinton +7.4%
Gallup: Obama 50 – Giuliani 45
RCP Avg: Giuliani +1.1%
Gallup: Obama 48 – McCain 46
RCP Avg: Obama +6.0%
Gallup: Obama 57 – Romney 36
RCP Avg: Obama +16.4%
Gallup: Edwards 50 – Giuliani 45
RCP Avg: Edwards +1.4%
Gallup: Edwards 50 – McCain 44
RCP Avg: Edwards +0.3%
Gallup: Edwards 61 – Romney 32
RCP Avg: Edwards +23.5%
Okay, so far, so good, it does show 3 Potential Democratic Contenders, leading 3 Potential Republican Contenders; in all combinations, the Democrat has a Lead.
Of course, on purpose, you leave out the “Fred Thompson” factor, as a complicating event in the Republican numbers, when Rasmussen has clearly shown, that as of yesterday, without even campaigning yet, he’s actually LEADING the Republican race; but you conveniently ignore that, and instead, tie it into the “Hypochondriac” Immigration thing; which is bogus; and you have to cover your “6” on this, because McCain is a proponent of this Bill, and yet he’s behind too, so you anticipate that, and come up with another piece of bogus analysis, then, you tell us to look at the “historic” numbers, to prove your point, and guess what?
Looking at the numbers that you suggest we look at, we see that:
There is NO historical data for Obama vs. Romney, so we don’t know if that’s changed!
In Obama vs. McCain, McCain has dropped 2 – 3 points, from one previous poll, and not surprising, considering the pounding he has justly taken for his stance on this issue, but it’s not the doom and gloom of the “Republican party” because of immigration, as you claim, it’s MCCAIN!
In Obama vs Giuliani, Obama has gained and passed Giuliani, but again, you nary mention a word about the Fred Thompson factor, nor Giuliani’s missteps on Abortion, etc., that hurt him with Republicans, who’d be his base; you ignore all that!
In Edwards vs. Giuliani, McCain & Romney there is NO historical data to look at, so you can’t infer anything from it, vis a vis another poll, as you say!
The same is true in Clinton vs Romney, there is NO previous poll to refer too; so again, you can’t infer anything all, as you allude too!
In Clinton vs. McCain, Clinton has gained +4, and McCain is -4; again, not surprising with the Fred Thompson issue, and McCain on Immigration, but it is not a 10pt swing, it’s 8, in a whole year!
In Clinton vs. Giuliani, Clinton is +5 and Giuliani is -4, over a YEAR, that’s a swing of 9 points, not the 13 you quote, and again, you ignore the Fred Thompson 500lb Gorilla, and Giuliani’s loss of Republican support, because the Right is figuring out how liberal he really is!
Bottomline AJ; you attempt to spin the numbers, to prove YOUR point, once again, in a complete vaccum, you get the numbers wrong, you draw the wrong conclusions; they’re forced, it’s like comparing apples and oranges, you get the math wrong, and you ignore what are the most likely mitigating factors, to pump out your “spin”; and your echo chamber, without ever even checking the FACTS for themselves, immediately drink the Kool Aid!
AJ: let me say it ONE MORE TIME!
YOU are TOO Good for this nonsense AJ!
I never met you; but I THINK you are a Good person, a patriotic person, a Smart person; and your head and your heart, I think, are in the “right place”; and clearly, on the GWOT and the Jihadis, and Iraq, YOU GET IT!
So stop this nonsense AJ, it’s not seemingly of you, really!
Listen to someone who actually likes you, and respects you, without having actually ever met you!
AJ: CHANGE TOPIC: read this, this will get us off this crazy immigration thing, and besides, it’s another favorite topic of yours, that I agree mostly with, and this is the best artcle I’ve ever seen on it!
H/T Drudge!
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/comment/story.html?id=597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4&p=4
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2007/06/urbicide_in_baq.html#more
Big LSU sports weenie.
You believe you are so “humanitarian”
with your pious pronouncements, as against your fellow Lousianan Duke, who got further in the GOP than you ever
will?….
Yet you support state terror as outlined above?
What a hypocite!
AJ,
This is from the San Francisco Chronicle:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/06/20/MNGSLQI0VR1.DTL
A Democracy Corps poll by Stan Greenberg and James Carville, former advisors to Democratic President Bill Clinton, showed intense voter concern about immigration in battleground congressional districts. Voters were far more likely to support proposals that would tighten the border and stop illegal immigrants from getting government benefits than efforts to legalize the estimated 12 million people living in the country illegally, the poll found.
It appears that the Immigration issue isn\’t making Republicans more unpopular so much as it is turning the Republican base _OFF_. AKA, the Republican base is so dissatisfied with the open borders lobby\’s antics in D.C. that they are going to sit out the 2008 election over it.
That is why the RNC shut down its phone banks asking for small contributor donations. Immigration Reform\’s defacto amnesty was viewed as Republican Party betrayal and said small donars acted accordingly.
As far as I can tell, the whole Immigration issue is an attempt by big money and big government interests in DC to preempt local government enforcement of immigration laws.
Kyle and McCain recently saw a grass roots popular referendum in Arizona about State Government enforcement of Federal immigration laws pass, so their role in all of this follows from that.
Georgia recently had its Republican controlled state legislature do the same thing. Hence Sen. Chambliss\’ role in the open borders caucus.
As Stan Greenberg and James Carville\’s Democracy Corps poll shows, there is no large current American voting group in favor of immigration reform and large blocks of voters, starting with the Republican activist base, who are against it.
Wow, beautiful link that encapsulates all that “Center”, and his Nutbag fellow Lettists are all about: Anti-Americanism, Anti-Semitism, Pro-Jihadism; wow you really hang out with the rest of your Lunar Chiroptera Colony, don’t you “Center”!
What a bunch of freaking loons…