Jun 22 2007
The Surge Is Massive, And Intense
Many Updates Below
The Surge was not just an effort to bring in a lot more troops to walk the streets and man checkpoints. It was meant to clear or purge large areas of the Islamo Fascists so as to reduce the violence in and around Baghdad – where 80% of the violence was taking place. It is a very large operation where the Diyala campaign, called Arrowhead Ripper, is just one element:
Operation Phantom Thunder, the name of the overarching operation to secure the Baghdad Belts, is now in its fifth day. As noted yesterday, Phantom Thunder is a corps-level operation, with multiple U.S. and Iraqi divisions engaged on multiple fronts. Iraqi Security Forces and Multinational Forces Iraq are engaged in intense fights in four main theaters: Baghdad proper, and the belts regions consisting of Diyala and southern Salahadin provinces to the north, northern Babil province to the south, and eastern Anbar province to the west of Baghdad. The fighting has been the most intense in the city of Baqubah, the provincial capital of Diyala.
The good news is the Iraqi-US forces have established themselves in configurations which are surrounding the al-Qaeda (and sympathizing groups’) strongholds so that there is no place for the Islamo Fascists to go. The fighting is most intense in Baquoba, the capitol city of Diyala Province and the second declared capitol city of al Qaeda’s moder caliphate (Ramadi in Anbar was their original claimed capitol – which they lost a few months back when Anbar turned on al-Qaeda):
The large portion of the media attention has focused on the battle in Baqubah, as this is where the brunt of the heavy fighting is occurring. Baqubah is the provincial capital of Diyala as well as al Qaeda’s proclaimed capital of its rump Islamic State of Iraq. Hundreds, and upwards of 1,000 al Qaeda fighters are believed to be holed up in the city in prepared fighting positions. The city has been mined with IEDs and booby-trapped homes, and seeded with snipers.
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Both Michael Gordon and Michael Yon, who are embedded in Baqubah, reported U.S. and Iraqi troops are receiving valuable intelligence from the residents of Baqubah. “A positive indicator on the 19th and the 20th is that most local people apparently are happy that al Qaeda is being trapped and killed,” Michael Yon wrote. “Civilians are pointing out IEDs and enemy fighters, so that’s not working so well for al Qaeda.”
I predicted a few months back that al-Qaeda’s brutality would be its undoing and apparently I was right. al-Qaeda cannot exist of the local population is so angry it celebrates their destruction and is willing to take up arms against them. We have gone from what could have been a US surrender to al-Qaeda through a Congressional collapse of spine (nothing more) a few months back to a campaign were the Arab/Muslim street is now rising up against al-Qaeda and showing why the Democrats (or Surrendercrats as I call them) were incredibly wrong on Iraq. Al-Qaeda could have become the beacon of the Muslim world if we had left Iraq, but now they are being destroyed, in large part, by a backlash in the Muslim world.
The reporting on other elements of Phantom Thunder show similar reuslts:
Multinational Division Central, the newly created command to deal with the southern Baghdad Belts, has two concurrent major operations ongoing in its area of operations. Marne Torch is focusing on the city and surrounding regions of Arab Jabour, southeast of Baghdad. Commando Eagle is focusing on the Mahmudiyah region southwest of Baghdad.
“To date, Marne Torch and Iraqi army units have detained more than five dozen suspected extremists and destroyed more than 17 boats on the Tigris River that are responsible for transporting accelerants into Baghdad,” Multinational Forces Iraq reported in a press release. “U.S. forces killed five insurgents, discovered and destroyed 12 improvised explosive devices, and detained 13 wanted individuals.”
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Multinational Forces West has yet to release the name of the ongoing operations in eastern Anbar province. But the scope of the operation in eastern Anbar is now clearer. In an Associated Press interview with Brigadier General John Allen, the deputy commander of Multinational Forces West, the hot spots in the province were identified.
Brig. Gen. Allen noted there are three main focal points: Fallujah, Karma, and the Thar Thar region.
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As the major offensive is ongoing in the belts, the pressure is being kept up on Muqtada al Sadr’s Mahdi Army as well as al Qaeda’s network throughout Iraq.
The story has tons of links which knit together the big picture. The Iraqi-US forces are finally engaged in the Surge (which shows why anyone who claimed the Surge was a failure – before it started – was pretty much an idiot) and this intensity is supposed to be sustained for about two months.
Sadly it is impossible to completely cordon off an entire city so that a handful of people cannot get out. And that seems to be the case in Diyala, where al-Qaeda leaders have fled the battlefield (guess they are not interested in 70 virgins):
BAQOUBA, Iraq: U.S. troops are scouring houses and vehicles to root out hundreds of al-Qaida militants believed holed up in western Baqouba, which has become the center of a massive military offensive, a commander said Friday.
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“They’re clearly in hiding, no question about it. But they’re a hardline group of fighters who have no intention of leaving, and they want to kill as many coalition and Iraqi security forces as they possibly can,” he said in an interview with The Associated Press and another news agency.
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U.S. commanders have acknowledged, however, that while some element of surprise was preserved in the offensive that began Monday, al-Qaida’s sophisticated intelligence gathering meant top militant leaders knew an attack was imminent.
More than three-quarters of the senior al-Qaida leaders holed up escaped as American soldiers launched an offensive earlier this week, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the U.S. ground forces commander said on Thursday during a one day trip to the battlefield.
“We believe 80 percent of the upper level (al-Qaida) leaders fled, but we’ll find them,” Odierno said. “Eighty percent of the lower level leaders are still here.”
While it is not good the leaders escaped, the left their people behind to die. That is not considered ‘good form’ in the Middle East. And where will these people go? If their fighters are being rounded up and the locals are ready to kill them on sight where in the world are these cowards going to go? I doubt they will be resurrecting any large fighting forces in Iraq after turning tail in Baquoba. I would gather they (and any remnants that survive the Surge) will be limping into Iran or Syria.
The Islamo Fascists cannot lose two of their claimed capitol cities in Iraq and retain enough credibility to entice people to go die for their cause. The Islamo Fascists are becoming the enemy of the Muslim street. They are being defeated and running from the fight. When they collapse it will be not be some long drawn out event but it will be like a thunderclap. The bottom will fall out of the insurgency and Iraq will FINISH its turn towards a democratic future and an ally of the US and West. The fact the Arab/Muslim street is turning on al-Qaeda makes this almost (nothing is for certain) inevitable. Once they reject al-Qaeda and embrace the current government they will expect to see results, and they will work to try and create the opportunities and garner some of the rewards. If the Iraqis are finally making their decision on which path to go, I have no doubt they will embrace it with energy and determination.
Update: Michael Yon’s latest on the battle for Baqouba is up. I could not help but note how, in yesterday’s installment (linked above), Yon relayed how the SurrenderMedia was completely caught off guard regarding these operations. It is stunning sometimes when a little ol’ blogger like me can see what is building up while CNN, Reuters, AP and others miss the obvious. That is what happens when you staff your organization from only the liberal fringes I guess. Anyway, today’s report from Yon is just positive as yesterdays – and it shows we are out to kick butt:
The combat in Baqubah should soon reach a peak. Al Qaeda seems to have been effectively isolated. The initial attack on 19 June achieved enough surprise that al Qaeda was caught off guard and trapped. They have been beaten back mostly into pockets and are surrounded and will be dealt with. Part of this is actually due to the capability of Strykers. We were able to “attack from the march.†In other words, a huge force drove in from places like Baghdad and quickly locked down Baqubah.
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Our guys are winning. Al Qaeda is about to be strangled and pummeled to death in this town, …
Diyala Province caught my eye way back in March. The military was making noise back then that Diyala would be the scene of some major activity. Back in March I noted how al-qaeda’s brutality would be there undoing, and how the Surrendercrats would pay a price if the Muslim/Arab street rose up. I have been watching and posting on Diyala since March predicting that Dilaya would be the pivot point in Iraq. It would be this war’s Battle of the Bulge where al-Qaeda makes its last stand and loses. For anyone interested on what I have been posting on Diyala I created a category on the subject with all my posts. Let’s just say I become more confident in my earlier predictions each day we see the reporting from Diyala.
Update: As more news media wake up and finally get into Diyala and start reporting, the news is now coming fast and furious. And ugly:
Baquba is the capital of Diyala province. The region has long been an al Qaeda hotbed, but attacks against U.S. and Iraqi forces have soared here since a four-month-old U.S.-led security crackdown in Baghdad and operations elsewhere prompted many al Qaeda militants and other gunmen to seek sanctuary in Diyala.
The campaign is part of a broader offensive involving tens of thousands of U.S. and Iraqi soldiers pushing on with simultaneous operations in Baghdad, and to the south and west of the capital.
Tough fighting is expected over the next 45-60 days, U.S. military officials have said, sketching a rough timeline for the combined operations.
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Bednarek said U.S. forces were making some grisly discoveries as they scoured Baquba.
He said residents led soldiers to a house in the western part of the city that appeared to have been used to hold, torment and kill hostages. Soldiers destroyed it.
“When you walk into a room and you see blood trails, you see saws, you see drills, knives, in addition to weapons, that is not normal,” Bednarek said.
Is it really any wonder the Muslim street is rising up against the Islamo Fascists? Is there any doubt this would not be the kind of decision any people would make when faced with the choice of bloody brutality or democratic reform? And as the Muslim World sees what al Qaeda does to other Muslims, is it expected that the Muslim world will embrace these fascists? Or will they seek revenge upon them?
You’ve already surrendered your sanity. Anyone who believes
al Qaida or any collection of non-government Islamic entities
is capable of conquering America , is certifiable.
But you have already surrendered -Iraq, to an anti-American government every bit as hostile as Saddam-the day of the invasion
that surrender was written in stone
Thanks, Dale, for making so very clear that your claims of having authored hundred – nay, thousands – of …yadda yadda yadda.
Bootlicker; I think you are confused, the only thing my “rantings” have PROVEN, are what complete and utter FOOLS you ass-clowns are!
“May your enemies eat from your food-dish with their left hands! ”
Pathetically, you don’t even know what that means, so you’ll Google it, and then post like you have a clue!
Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh!
“THECENTERISABUNGHOLE”
“You’ve already surrendered your sanity. Anyone who believes
al Qaida or any collection of non-government Islamic entities
is capable of conquering America , is certifiable.”
Ah…..YEAH! Chirp….chirp….chirp…..
As they say in Iraq:
Teese-ak mashe zob-wal-hamar!
Too true, too true….
But seriously, Strata’s analysis of the situation seems too simplistic. Al Qaeda is not *the* insurgency and it’s not *the* “Islamo Fascists.” It’s just one faction in Iraq that has never been in the majority. They’re largely foreigners, just like the U.S. forces, and therefore were never likely to gain strong, lasting support from the Iraqis. It would be great to see them routed, but they were never the major problem, anyway. We’d still be left with the much more significant problem of intra-Iraqi ethnic conflict between Sunnis and Shiites, who between themselves comprise the majority of the insurgent forces (which includes the private Shiite militias and death squads).
We’re dealing with a civil war, which has just barely gotten started. The eventual winner of this struggle will determine the Bush administration’s true legacy in Iraq: if the Sunnis win, it’ll be Saddam all over again, or if (as is more likely) the Shiites win, we will have spent a trillion dollars and probably more than 4,000 of our soldiers’ lives to create another Iran. And this doesn’t even factor in the Kurds and their destabilizing effect on our NATO ally, Turkey. It’s a frickin’ mess no matter how you slice it.
But go ahead, keep telling us that victory is just around the corner, you rubes. Keep telling us that this miserable backwater of a country ever mattered after Saddam was defeated and de-clawed following the first Gulf War, as if anyone cares what you have to say any more.
Actually, Center, I would disagree with you on that point. The current Shia government of Iraq is far more hostile to the United States than Saddam ever was. Saddam was our lap dog – until Bush 41 double-crossed him. Saddam asked permission to invade Kuwait (they WERE slant drilling and stealing Iraqi oil, after all, and no one likes a thief). April Glaspie – speaking for Bush 41 – told him the US does not get involved in intra-Arab disputes – he took her at her word – and invaded Kuwait.
It was only when the Saudi’s started getting nervous that Bush 41 double-crossed Saddam and concocted Gulf War I as a solution.
While Saddam allegedly tried to whack Bush 41 (the traditional response to being double-crossed – think of Bush as Tony Soprano and Saddam as Paulie Walnuts) – Saddam – as far as we can tell – never had any delusions about attacking the United States of America.
Saddam was a reliable minion – but we sent him a mixed message and then punished him for it.
The situation in Iraq now – long-term – is strategically far worse for the US.
By the way, since the surge is so “massive†and “intense,†maybe it’s time for the wing-nuts to resurrect the phrase “Shock and Awe.†That may have only marked the beginning of this misbegotten disaster, but the it gave the wing-nuts chills every time they heard it. And isn’t helping wing-nuts get their rocks off all this fiasco has ever been about?
For those who do not know what ‘fascism’ is:
“A system of government marked by centralization of authority under a dictator, stringent socioeconomic controls, suppression of the opposition through terror and censorship, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism.”
There is no restriction that fascists cannot use religion as part of their dogma. Radical Islam portends to be “a nation” wherein their brand of theology will rule the world under one caliphate. Their nationalism and theology are so intertwined there is no need to split hairs.
Islamo-Fascists (with the hyphen to show I combining to concepts) is a completely accurate description. Especially if you focus on the brutality they impose on non-believers.
It is governance by force. What excuse they sue to rationalize their brutality is irrelevant to me.
Sooth
Just a cut from here
I know it says likely, but geez fool this is a very dynamic situation much bigger than you can probably even grasp.
Iraqi Armored units are likely taking up blocking positions along the Tigris River to prevent al Qaeda fighters from crossing into neighboring Salahadin province. The long guns and heavy machine guns on the armor allow the Iraqi forces to protect the bridge crossings and take out barges and craft used to cross the river. A curfew has been imposed on the province of Diyala, which likely includes instructions to keep off the rivers. This strategy has been employed by Multinational Division Central, which destroyed a barge on the Tigris river near Salman Pak south of Baghdad. The craft was being used to smuggle “ammunition and bomb-making materials into Baghdad.’
Soothsayer
You’re right. My excuse is I was playing my cards too close to the vest, which isn’t really necessary when “dialoguing” with such as Dale.
But let me ask you–I read also at the time, and forwarded as probable more than once-that the US tricked the Sauds, with doctored intelligence, into believing Saddam was on the verge of attacking them.
1. Have/had you heard this theory?
2. Give it any credibility?
We can probably agree that the likes of Dale would justify such a tactic and/or would not confirm its veracity.
AJ-
Iraq under Saddam was pretty close to fascism – no doubt about it – but he was ourlong time ally until Bush 41 double-crossed him – and the B’aathists are secular.
Syria is another regime that could be termed fascism – but Syria, like Iraq, is secular – so the Islamo-part doesn’t apply.
al-Qaeda doesn’t govern ANYTHING – they are garden variety terrorists – so to call them Islamo-Fascist would not meet the qualifying threshhold, would be plain stupid AND incorrect. Additionally – al-Qaeda is not nationalistic.
To be “fascism” – as you noted – requires governance. So Hamas is out. Maybe Fatah, now, too.
Pakistan – our ally – is a predominantly Islamic military dictatorship – and probably the closest thing to true fascism BUT- the present regime is secular – so while Pakistan is arguably our fascist ally – it’s not Islamo-fascist – cause its not fundamentalist Islamically religious in nature.
Why don’t you help us out and point out a government or group that you think meets the definition of “Islamo-fascist”.
Cause, otherwise, it’s just another imprecise, pejorative, inflammatory term being thrown around by people who don’t have a clue what they’re talking about.
Talking pre-Gulf War of course.
It’s certainly a minor point – but I so wanted to show Dale that there can be disagreement between sentient beings without causing foaming at the mouth and the other bizarre manifestations of hebephrenia that possess him when his tiny belief system is stressed.
Sooth said
al-Qaeda doesn’t govern ANYTHING – they are garden variety terrorists – so to call them Islamo-Fascist would not meet the qualifying threshhold, would be plain stupid AND incorrect. Additionally – al-Qaeda is not nationalistic.
_________
Geez what a faulty argument, AQ is trans-national they want a caliphate which is a non border respecting entity.
Exactly the reason they are declared unlawful combatants in case you missed that little distinction.
You see declarations of war in the historic sense require a country you declare war on.
Keep digging.
Center-
As for the tricking the Sauds – it is entirely possible that once Saddam had jumped the shark and invaded Kuwait – the unbelievably greedy Bush family decided the time was ripe to double-cross Saddam – frighten the Saudis – make them beg us to protect them from the secualr evil of Saddam and move against him militarily – to occupy Kuwait and perhaps . . . even more.
Bush 41 – perhaps to his credit – blinked when faced with the prospect of taking Baghdad and all of its headaches – but we are working overtime to seize that oil. In any case – these idiot neocons have pi**ed in the soup and its not going to get set right for generations.
Sooth
could you turn your head a little bit, the reflection of the tin foil ain’t a pretty sight.
It is pretty damn sad when you have American troops on one side of the fight and AlQaida on the other and there are still people in this country who can not decide which ones are the good guys.
hint: it is the guys with the American flags on their sleeves.
I believe Saddam had the weapons and so did the UN as far as that is concerned. In fact it seems to me that it would be a lot easier for Saddam to have moved the weapons than it would have been for so many people to be so wrong.
Nonetheless, left to his own devices and free to wreak havoc Saddam could easily have reconstituted his weapons programs. Why else did he hide them?
And to say there were no links with AlQaida is ridiculous. Saddam gave hundreds of thousands of dollars to AlQaida and I doubt if it was just a goodwill gesture. In fact Saddam allowed them into the country and his Intelligence people had meetings with AlQaida back into the 90’s. In 98 the Clinton administration mentioned a connection to Iraq in its indictment of AlQaida members in the embassy bombings.
Saddam was an evil man and I am not sad he is gone.
As for the fight against AlQaida, it will take time. They will try to come back and take territory, they will try to intimidate ordinary people into tolerating their presence. However, the only way to stop them is to resist them.
The fact that it is difficult is not a reason to give up and run away.
Sooth is revising history again.
Bush 41 didn’t take Baghdad because he kept within the confines of the UN Resolution he was acting under.
More spin from the No Win Zone.
sooth:
Bush 41 did not blink.
He did not have the support from Congress or the UN to go into Baghdad. Because of that lack of support hundreds of thousands of Shia lost their lives.
Because of that lack of support we went through the 90’s with its on again off again inspections, Saddam’s lies and his murders of his own family members for telling his secrets, the sanctions which were hard on the Iraqi people and the oil for food scandal which turned out to be the largest heist in history.
There would not have been Iraqi Liberation Act which most Democrats just pretend not to remember today.
Zarqawi would not have gone to Iraq from Afghanistan after the Taliban fell.
Everyone would have been better off if they had taken out Saddam years earlier.
The infrastructure would have not been so destroyed, the people would have not have suffered as much and the divisions in the society might not have been so intense.
In any event, a man like Saddam was not going well.
Oh, yeah-as if the UN sanction meant anything to Bush.
No WMDS no link with al Qaeda-both reports verified for the umptee nth time again officially days ago. Scott Ritter had it right early on as did Hans Blix who says in his autobiography Saddam was more honest than either Bush or Bliar!
Terry blathers
“It is pretty damn sad when you have American troops on one side of the fight and AlQaida on the other and there are still people in this country who can not decide which ones are the good guys.”
tell it to Prime Minister Maliki who opposes the arming of Sunni tribes against al Qaeda, predicting worse Sunni domestic
insurgency as a result.
and tell it to the majority of all Iraqis who have told us to get out, that they can do a better job of ousting al Qaeda than the US.
TCCH
Duh
Most of the UN Mandates for taking Saddam down didn’t even mention WMD’s , if I recall correctly only 1 or 2 did.
Your hanging your hat on a weak thread that shouted by your side because it ignores all the other reasons.
Well at least you can remember your talking points.