Jun 27 2007
Another Poll Confirms The Amnesty Hypochondriacs Small Minority
The Amnesty Hypochondriacs who oppose any legislation that provides a path, with retribution to society, for the illegal aliens here claim to represent 75% of the people. OK, ego-maniacal observations aside (that would mean the GOP had enormous leads in Congress) we also have polls and other DATA to understand what is really going on here. Some question the clearly simple math I used on the Senate vote to note that the immigration hypochondriacs only garnered 25% support. Well it is pretty easy to do the math. 24 GOP members voted ‘naye’ (the rest were liberals who felt the bill was too harsh on immigrants. 24 out of 99 is…?
While the hypochondriacs mull over that little problem we have a new poll out from CNN/Opinion Research which shows an interesting and similar result:
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Monday showed 47 percent of Americans opposed the bill, while 30 percent supported it and 19 percent said they didn’t know enough about it to make a judgment. The poll’s sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
However, the poll found a significant division among opponents of the immigration plan. About 28 percent said they were opposed because it did too much to help illegal immigrants, but 15 percent said they were opposed because it did too little.
There is that same number again – 28%! The far right cannot claim (but they do try) alliance with liberals who would truly open the borders and provide immediate citiznship to illegals here now. If they do they are only kidding themselves. But the pollsters make a valid point:
So while much of the opposition to the bill has come from those who believe it is too soft on illegal immigration, the poll found that 45 percent of Americans either support the bill or want it to be more immigrant-friendly, compared to 28 percent who feel it’s already too immigrant-friendly.
Ooppps. No where near the 75% the far right claims they represent! And let’s not forget those undecideds – who are probably more likely the ‘who the hell cares anymore’ crowd. The point is these 19 percent don’t have a position – and they DO NOT agree with the 28% who are the amnesty hypochondriacs. Finally, in a 50-50 nation between Rep and Dem support at the polls 28% is not a solid majority. And all those traitors and quislings on the right who support Bush will not be allying again anytime soon with the hypochondriacs so they could even hope to get near 50% again. These are strong indicators that there is no wide spread support for the far right, and in fact they are rapidly forcing the vast majority of people to line up AGAINST them.
Update: And another poll out showing similar results (remember opposition comes from far left AND far right – so only a subset are from the far right)
To correctly gauge the difference of this issue, we asked people whether they would favor or oppose creating a program that would allow illegal immigrants already living in the United States for a number of years to stay in the country and apply for U.S. citizenship. Then, there was a twist — the question one-half of our sample read continued “if they had a job and paid back taxes” while the question the other half read concluded “even if they don’t pay back taxes”.
Not surprisingly, there was a large difference. Well over half (57%) of adults who had the first statement with the back tax provision favored such a program while two in five (39%) opposed. Among the adults who had the provision of not paying back taxes, two-thirds (66%) opposed such a program while only one-quarter (28%) favored it.
Under certain conditions – those outlined in the bill as opposed to some cherry picked by partisans – the country still supports “amnesty”. And I would wager that 39% opposition is 25% far right and 14% far left, give or take a few points. Which can be seen in the polls internals:
Partisan leanings also show a split on this divisive issue. When back taxes are included, two-thirds of Democrats (65%) favor this program as do 56 percent of Independents. Republicans are split straight down the middle as 49 percent favor it and 49 percent oppose it.
The 25% “majority” marches on, splitting the GOP in half and making it impotent on all other issues.
Update: OK, now a third poll.
In the study, respondents stated that they strongly agreed with the statement, “The nation’s immigration system was broken,†with a rating of eight (8.03) on a ten point scale. They also felt (6.9) that “Building more fences will not stop the flow of immigrants into the U.S.â€
Most favored the statement, “A legal path to permanent residency and eventual citizenship should be available to all immigrants who have built a life in this country.†Two-thirds (66.6%) of those surveyed expressed their support and only about one-in-four (26%) disagreed with the statement.
All these folks must be working for Ted Kennedy of course, that is the only reason the same result keeps coming up. Folks, you can only cook the polls so much and MAYBE move them 5-7 points. We are not in the 5-7 point range. And there is that mid 20’s number again. Imagine that?
AJ, the poll cited by you is useless for the following reason: CNN/Opinion Research poll is run by Gupta’InfoUSA, who is working for Hillary Clinton, and Democrats in general. Therefore I do not believe this poll to be correct.
Believe what you want. But it does make the ‘hypochondriac’ label all the more valid. Besides, this is consistent with many other polls and data so it is pretty tough to claim all of them are working for Hillary!
Um, what does Rasmussen say?
I’ve really enjoyed your blog for a long time until you got into the illegal issue and became exactly what you seem to detest.
AJ
With all due respect I have seen over 15 different polls on this issue and the vast majority show opposition across the board at around 70%
You have quoted now two polls including one almost total in conflict with the average of all polls.
A.J.
Usually I agree with your positions, but I have to disagree on immigration. I believe the borders must be secured first. The next step is to begin deporting illegal aliens who have broken other laws (than immigration). When the federal government proves capable of those two actions, I will be amenable to some sort of regularization. I have no confidence that the administration will carry out those actions.
Regards,
Duff
Where would be a good spot to actually discuss the specifics of this thing?
I only ask because there are multiple posts and a zillion comments already up on your site.
I want to get into the actual meat of what was voted on yesterday and see what’s there.
PMII,
Really? I accused our President of being as traitor and siding with Mexico over America? I accused his supporters of being traitors and un-American?
LOL! I see. Calling someone an ‘amnesty hypochondriac ‘is the same as calling conservatives who support Bush ‘traitors’.
Interesting theory. Do you think I hate the name calling or the self destructive nature of the fevered right?? Was it the backstabbing of Bush and his supporters, or was it the names they screamed when the stuck the knife in??? Hmmmm, something to ponder for those few pure Americans left in this country.
Gee, AJ posts a poll that we cannot read what the questions are. Nevermind that CNN is a left leaning channel and it would stand to reason that it’s viewers would lean left. Now, will AJ come up with a Fox News Channel survey?
I cannot find the questions posed in this survey and until I can do that, it seems pretty moot.
AJ, explain something to me; if you are so upset about the name calling on the far right, how do you justify the name calling you have done?
That’s an important point that immigration bill opponents don’t take into account. Much of the opposition to the bill is because it doesn’t give ENOUGH amnesty. The far left doesn’t like it because it doesn’t give permanent resident status to people already here.
If this bill is blocked, you ain’t seen nothing yet. The Republicans will be swept out of office and the Democrats are going to produce an even worse bill. And the far right will be practically voiceless. They will still be whining but nobody is going to be listening because they would have made themselves irrelevant.
Retired–
…AJ, explain something to me; if you are so upset about the name calling on the far right, how do you justify the name calling you have done?…
As far as I can tell, he’s the Name-Caller-In-Chief.
The Republicans will be swept out of office and the Democrats are going to produce an even worse bill.
Is there some provision in this bill that prevents future bills from being produced? If democrats are swept into office and they don’t like this bill anyway, what exactly will stop them from amending it in the future? Let me answer my own question. Nothing.
And from the Harris (second) Poll posted by AJ:
when asked if they favored allowing illegals to remain if the paid back taxes and fines, 74% of Hispanics said they would, but when the back taxes and fines were removed 44% of Hispanics said they would while 44% said they would NOT.
Taking only those parts of the poll that further one’s agenda is dishonest, to say the least.
Sue,
You are exactly right. Precisely on the mark.
Having actually read a good portion of what has been squeezed out so far, it strikes me as being something that would be hard to beat.
If you’re looking for a worse bill that is.
Of course I’m still looking around here for the spot to discuss the actual meat of the bill.
So far, no luck.
I guess there is no interest in that for whatever reason.
The Senate just voted down the “touchback” requirement.
Now these illegal invaders won’t have to return to their place of origin in order to get onto the pathway to citizenship.
Sue, I disagree.
One of the problems with the whole immigration debate is that there are several issues…which break different ways. And both sides have been eager to seize what they want, and ignore what they don’t want.
First, you have the issue of border security. Polls be damned…everyone I’ve met wants a Barrier Wall to stop further illegal immigration. The only real question is whether this should include a minefield or not.
Second, there is the issue of the disposition of illegals currently in the country. There’s more debate here…and the positions people take depends on the precise circumstance of the illegal. Working illegals vex people because of the lost jobs….but it is the criminals and welfare recipients that excite real anger. There is some sentiment for mass deportations….but also a willingness to permit legalization IF the border is air-tight.
Third, there is the issue of legal immigration. This, too, is trade space…but there is a strong sentiment for restrictions both on the total number of legal immigrants AND on the number from a specific country.
Fourth, there is the guest worker issue. This is separate from immigration – an immigrant means to live here, a guest worker is headed home. I don’t think this will fly. Certainly not in Middle America. There are too many lower-middle-class people who are fighting immigrants for jobs…adding guest workers to the mix does nothing. And “jobs Americans won’t do”….there are none. Merely jobs Americans won’t do as cheaply as imported labor.
Finally, there is the issue of assimilation. Over the last twenty years, the Melting Pot has frozen solid. And there is a VERY strong desire outside the Beltway to get it red-hot. English as official language, fluency in the official language made mandatory for citizens, aggressive efforts to familiarize every person in the country with U.S. history and government.
And this has been the big problem with the whole immigration debate…it’s not one issue.
Excellent news on the touchback requirement! It was a useless waste of time and energy. Thanks BrownGreenGold
BTW, I like Webb’s amendment to only offer the path to legal status to long term illegals. Seems my Dem Senator from VA is not so bad on this issue.
So it’s A-OK just to let these folks who snuck in the basement window have a free pass while the ones knocking on the front door and going through the process legally continue to wait.
Interesting.