Jul 12 2007
For those who do not know (and missed the great movie’s about it) the Battle of The Bulge in World War II was the last big gasp of the Nazi’s as Russia and the West were slowly pushing Hitler’s forces back into the box from which they had emerged. Hitler’s forces had spanned Europe, North Africa and had reached to the outskirts of Moscow not just a few years earlier. But now they had been pushed back to only Europe. What was left was actually a large condensed force gathered up from the remnants of what could be retreated and the reserves held back in Germany. And this large, condensed force struck back at the circling-in allies with such force that it almost worked. Germany almost broke out and provided itself breathing room (and time) to regroup and possibly hold off defeat. If not for literally running out of gas to keep their tanks moving in one final Blitzkreig, Hitler may have held on for a while longer.
He might have. History says that the last gasp of the Nazi’s once vaunted military machine was impressive, but fell short. So why the walk down memory lane? SurrenderMedia reporting on al-Qaeda’s “gaining strength” in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Let’s look at the history of this Global War on Terror – World War III some like to call it. After building up capabilities from 1993’s WTC bombing through the 9-11 attack in 2001, al-Qaeda went from a ragtag bunch of dissidents based in Somalia to a larger rag tag bunch of terrorists numbering in the tens of thousands who had been trained through the camps in Afghanistan – AQ’s new home under the Taliban. The actual number of terrorist in Afghanistan was low since people trained and then went back to their native countries to start their murderous new careers.
After 9-11 al-Qaeda was strong in Pakistan and Afghanistan and many countries in the region. After 6 years of fighting the West al-Qaeda has only lost ground, not gained it (unless you want to count that strip of useless land called Gaza). It lost Afghanistan and took heavy losses there. It was initially pushed out of Pakistan – but has been allowed to return to some degree to the northern tribal lands. It has sent thousands to die in Iraq, which is now turning on al-Qaeda. AQ had infiltrated a Palestinian refuge camp in Lebanon before being detected and pounded into submission.
And all through this series of failures and losses AQ’s number two has issued pleas for the Muslim street to rise up and save al-Qaeda (see here). Here is the SurrenderMedia’s breathless (and old) news about al-Qaeda’s growing presence in Pakistan and southern Afghanistan:
Six years after the Bush administration declared war on al-Qaeda, the terrorist network is gaining strength and has established a safe haven in remote tribal areas of western Pakistan for training and planning attacks, according to a new Bush administration intelligence report to be discussed today at a White House meeting.
The report, a five-page threat assessment compiled by the National Counterterrorism Center, is titled “Al-Qaida Better Positioned to Strike the West,” intelligence officials said. It concludes that the group has significantly rebuilt itself despite concerted U.S. attempts to smash the network.
Although the officials declined to discuss the assessment’s content because it is classified, the CIA’s deputy director for intelligence, John A. Kringen, told a House committee yesterday that al-Qaeda appears “to be fairly well settled into the safe haven in the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan.”
“We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications,” Kringen said.”
To go back to my World War II analogies, Japan also saw troop strengths grow in the waning years of the war, as well as lots and lots of training – of their Kamikazi suicide pilots who were only trained to take off, never to land. This is old news because it was know as far back as January that Islamo-Fascist forces were collecting in the northern regions of Pakistan and over the border in Afghanistan. Check this post of mine from January of this year:
Before the September 11 tragedy, al Qaeda maintained a presence only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Today, the organization once again has emerged as a major threat in both these countries, but it also has established itself in Iraq, Somalia, Saudi Arabia and Sudan. In addition, al Qaeda operatives are active on the European mainland.
Turning to Afghanistan, al Qaeda and its Taliban allies have largely restored combat capabilities that were destroyed by the US-led anti-terrorist coalition in late 2001. The Taliban, for example, demonstrated last summer that it was capable of mobilizing roughly 8,000 fighters in a military operation.
US and British intelligence estimate that there are less than 100 hardcore Arab al Qaeda militants in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region, who have helped revive the Taliban. These Arabs include financiers, fund raisers and dealers who can get the best price for Taliban-produced heroin in Dubai or Teheran. They also include explosives experts and techie wizards, who teach the latest in undetectable communications.
This ragtag group of lightly armed militia is no match for Pakistani forces, let alone a Coalition of forces from America, Europe and the Middle East which could number 10 times this number if need be. The WaPo’s breathless worry really doesn’t say anything more than a retreating Islamo Fascist movement is regrouping in the area from where it initial came. And the security implications are ‘unknown’ since, in my humble opinion, the fish have been basically jumping into the barrel in preparation for the end game.
Look at the timing. As al-Qaeda is forced from its large base of operations in Anbar Province, Iraq the forces in this region start growing. Coincidence? And how about the decision to not send more fighters into Iraq (where they were being killed in droves) but to move resources to other areas:
The Iraq war, which for years has drawn militants from around the world, is beginning to export fighters â€” and the tactics they have honed in the insurgency â€” to neighboring countries and beyond, according to U.S., European and Middle Eastern government officials and militant leaders in Lebanon, Jordan and London.
Some of the fighters appear to be leaving as part of the waves of Iraqi refugees crossing borders that government officials acknowledge they struggle to control. But others are dispatched from Iraq for specific missions.
In the Jordanian airport plot, officials think the bomb maker flew from Baghdad to prepare the explosives for Darsi.
Exporting forces – or redeploying them? One would not move a key individual across borders like this unless you were short on bomb experts (seems unlikely – doesn’t it?). Why stop refreshing your fighting force in Iraq as it is losing its base of operations?
The media has been a gullible ally of the Islamo Fascists for some time to come. They hype and bias stories to make it sound as if al-Qaeda is this unstoppable force that we must succumb to sooner or later. They have never seen the other possible view: that the Islamo Fascists and their brutal ways will go the way of Hitler and Tojo and Mussolini because their bloody acts are so horrible even communism looks good in comparison, let alone democracy.
I do not know for sure, but I would say that with Fascists gathering in Pakistan is possibly something else than a resurgence. Not with a supposed green light from Musharraf to allow NATO and US forces to take these thugs out, and a new aircraft carrier group on the way to the region. Seems to me we are seeing the creation of a target rich environment for our forces to take out at will.