I tend to read US media reports with a lot of skepticism when it comes to Iraq. The liberal bent of the media (making them clear allies of the Surrendercrats) and their emotional investment in Bush losing makes them a useless source beyond facts that appear across the media spectrum. In essence confirm what I can and believe little else.

UK and international media outlets are better sources for what is going on in Iraq because they are not wedded to the heated politics around Bush. And since Bush is a lame duck President, they see little value in trying to stain him day-to-day and tend to focus their energies on what is going on in Iraq. And it seems quite clear that we are winning and things, while still violent, are settling down. al-Qaeda is losing.

It may be why al-Qaeda brought out a tired looking Bin Laden. to say a few words to the masses about the glorious jihad.

A new al-Qaida videotape posted Sunday on a militant Web site featured a short, undated clip of a weary-looking Osama bin Laden praising martyrdom.

…

Bin Laden glorified those who die in the name of jihad, or holy war, saying even the Prophet Muhammad “had been wishing to be a martyr.

The clip of Bin Laden is less than a minute long. Seems he was not up for much more. Zawahiri’s videos, by contrast, can go on for over an hour. With a string of military losses and opposition rising to them in Iraq, al-Qaeda seems to be in a very bad position. So bringing out a weakened Bin Laden was a risk they may have felt they had to take, but Bin Laden looks to be the perfect metaphor for al-Qaeda’s Islamo Fascism. al-Qaeda is a sickly and dying movement that has deadenders still fighting the cause, but more and more Muslims taking up arms and opposition. The question is when will the oppostion to al-Qaeda outnumber the recruiting. I would suggest it has already happened if Iraq is any indication.

To see what Iraq is emerging from one only need to read this rivetting account of how one brutal sectarian attack on one family causes another brutal revenge attack on another. But as the article points out, in parallel to these horrific acts are acts of hope:

For there are two Iraqs in evidence these days: not just the one where weddings are bombed and young women murdered in reply. The other Iraq is harder to dramatize but it is equally real. It is a place where boring, ordinary things take place. And in taking place become extraordinary in the context of conflict.

Last week it was the opening of a new $20 million government centre next to Tal Afar’s ancient ruined fort. The day before Jamil detonated his explosives’ belt, the sheiks and dignitaries came in and crowded through the building’s corridors, muttering approvingly as they examined its new painted walls, the photocopiers, printers and computers – some of them still wrapped in plastic – sitting on the brand new desks.

Welcome to transition. The writer is legitimately skeptical because Iraq has been a long tough fight (as promised when it began and we quickly overwhelmed their military). But he cannot help but note a tide is moving in one direction:

In practical terms there is a gulf between the politics in Washington and the views of the generals on the ground. For while the Democrats are pushing for rapid withdrawal that would see most US troops out by April next year, the commander of the forces in the country’s north, General Benjamin Mixon, has made clear that it would take 18 months to safely reduce just half of his forces. However, he believes Nineveh could be handed over by this autumn.

In his office in the northern city of Mosul, Mixon’s deputy, General Frank Wiercinski, is convinced that, in his divisional area at least – if not in Baghdad – a long sought-for stabilization is finally occurring. ‘There is a line I think that separates the areas that are becoming more secure from those where there is still heavy fighting. And I think that line is moving slowly south now through Diyala.’

‘In my personal opinion it is not the time to pull out. We are at the apex. The war out there that is going on is with Iraqis in the lead and I don’t feel we can just say: “See you!”‘

And while in Iraq it has usually been the best policy to deal with officials with a strong dose of skepticism following the years of pronouncements of victory around the corner, for now at least there appears to be corroborating evidence that in the north, the war may be drawing, ever so slowly, towards some kind of close.

In Mosul, which once hosted 21,000 US soldiers in the city, now only a single battalion, in the mid-hundreds, remains inside the city, matched by an equivalent drop in attacks. And it is not only in Mosul that security is improving. The sense that things are getting better is reflected in Nineveh Province. In two years US troop levels around Tal Afar, once the heartland of al-Qaeda, have been reduced from 6,000 to 1,200.

The general trend for acts of violence – despite some spikes – also has been steadily decreasing. Indeed, until Jamil Salem Jamil detonated his human bomb there had not been a suicide vest attack in Tal Afar since 14 January.

And there are other striking indicators. The last time that I flew across this area, two years ago, what agriculture there was sporadic. Now it has turned golden with a vast expanse of freshly cut wheat fields that have turned the flat plains that touch the Kurdish foothills into a vast prairie, using almost every patch of viable land.

Iraq is not static, it is experiencing waves of change where each wave bringing a section of the country closer to a peaceful, democratic, Iraq. In Mosul the first cleansing waves that cleared al-Qaeda and created a local vision of a self sustained Iraq without Islamo Fascists started crashing over a year ago. In Anbar those waves crashed months ago. In Diyala those waves are crashing now. More on this in a moment, but look at the job left to do in Mosul:

‘It would be the easiest thing,’ says Lt Col Malcolm Frost, the squadron commander of 3/4th US Cavalry in Tal Afar, ‘to put a stake in the ground and declare victory here in Nineveh. But there are three or four things needed for the conditions to be set for a withdrawal. And my biggest problem is to get support and linkages from the central Iraqi government. So far we have not seen a single dollar from the 2007 budget get down to this level.’

Tal Afar too has struggled to get deliveries of food, propane and gas. And Frost is cautious about extrapolating the advances made by applying ‘clear, hold, build’ in Tal Afar, where it was pioneered over two years, to Baghdad.

After all the death and destruction and horror, it is inconceivable that we would pull out over simple logistics problems between Baghdad and these outer areas. In fact, once Baghdad stabilizes one would think the final items needed for stabilization could be realized. It is pure insanity to talk withdrawal when this is the problem we need to help Iraq tackle in much of the country.

And Iraq is seeing the wave of anti-Islamo Facsism as more and more local peace accords are signed. Diyala was al-Qaeda’s last strong hold and they are losing it swiftly (if they have not lost it already). Here is a indication that the fascist cleansing wave has hit Diyala and the rebuilding waves cannot be far behind:

ey tribal leaders from the Ubaidi and Anbakia tribes signed a peace agreement, July 10, during a meeting at the Baqouba Government Center to end tribal conflicts that have been occurring for decades and stand together against al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations.

“The strength of the tribes comes from the sheiks’ courage,” said Col. David W. Sutherland, commander, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division.

Sheik Hamed Hazber Hasan Abdal al-Anbak, paramount sheik for the Anbakia tribe, and a key tribal leader from the Ubaidi tribe, have been meeting for the past several months to discuss and work through grievances between their respective tribes.

By signing the peace agreement, the tribes agreed to “swear by God and his holy book Koran that we will unite in fighting terrorism in our areas.”

These men have vowed, on the Koran, to fight those who pollute the Koran with Islamo Fascism. This ceremony has been repeated across Anbar and is now happening in Diyala – sworn oaths on the Koran to destroy al-Qaeda! And it is a wave, not an isolated incident:

“The commitment of the tribes to sign this treaty signifies that the people of Diyala continue to feel disdain toward the hatred of al-Qaida and other terrorist groups throughout the province,” said Sutherland. “Just as the people of Buhriz, Tahrir, Mufrik and Khatoon have done, the Ubaidi and Anbakia tribes will show the terrorists that the people control the area because of their strength through unity.”

And what does al-Qaeda do? It continues to kill muslims, and in sick desparation to use women and children as shields (a cowardly act recognizable to all people).

These act only spell the doom of support for al-Qaeda and our success. Because Baquoba, the capitol city of Diyala, is now moving from cleansing to trying to recover from the dark days of al-Qaeda and the tough period of liberation. The people there are heading back to work.

“We have only completed the first phase of the liberation of the people of Baqouba from the grip of al-Qaeda,” said Col. Steve Townsend, commander of the 3rd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division. “There is still much work to do here, but Baqouba is no longer al-Qaeda’s capital in Iraq, and the citizens in much of the city are gradually returning to a safer and more normal way of life.”

The emerging picture in Iraq is opaque to the US SurrenderMedia. They have shuttered their eyes to stories from the region and comments by forces on the ground. But they cannot hold back reality by pushing their fantasies harder. Al-Qaeda naively believes the media image can replace reality, as does the SurrenderMedia. The Surrendercrats are out constantly calling for withdrawal knowing full well we will withdraw, when we succeed. And these naive people think Americans will give them credit for years of working to surrender and then taking credit for success?

Not very likely. Americans are much smarter and more worldly than the media thinks. And, in fact, I know we are much smarter and experienced than they as whole. The blogosphere proves that day in and day out. There was a time when Americans spent our lives inside our borders and it was the media and bureaucrats who had a monopoly on understanding the world. Not today, not in this global economy and not over a diverse population in America which now has roots from all corners of this globe.

They cannot deny the fact Iraq is turning our way and al-Qaeda will lose so much credibility over losing Iraq it might not ever recover to its potent, older form. After decades of slow, marginal step politics the worlds current leaders are not able to see or understand a watershed series of events. The 9-11 event has not yet played out. There was the attack and then our response. Until that tolling of the bell of history stops echoing lots of things are possible. Too many think 9-11, historically, ended on 9-12. These are the people who know more about TV than history and mankind.