Jul 19 2007
US Intel Overthinking Iraq/al-Qaeda Relationship
Is al-Qaeda guiding, funding and coordinating insurgent operations in Iraq? Yes. Are Islamo Fasicsts in Iraq guiding, funding and coordinating activities in Iraq? Of course. When allies work together they do things together and they do things independently. Sadly our intel folks are overthinking the relationship and trying to define pointless nuances:
Brig. Gen. Kevin Bergner, the top American military spokesman in Iraq, said the July 4 capture of Khalid al- Mashhadani has yielded evidence of the relationship between bin Laden’s al-Qaida and the group known as al- Qaida in Iraq. President Bush has long said that al-Qaida and the Iraqi group that shares its name are one and the same, an assertion that U.S. intelligence officials say is an oversimplification.
“What we’ve learned from not just the capture of Mashhadani, but from other al-Qaida operatives, is that there is a flow of strategic direction, of prioritization, of messaging and other guidance that comes from al- Qaida senior leadership to the al-Qaida in Iraq leadership,†Bergner said.
Classic Federal bureaucrat posturing. Bush is not oversimplifying, our intel folks are overthinking this. There is either coordination or not. Look at it this way. Did we coordinate with Britain in World War II? Some intel folks would claim “no, we had independent activities in the Pacific theatre against Japan”. This is what I call precision of language without any purpose. The fact is al-Qaeda is focusing attention and resources towards Iraq.
Speaking to reporters in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, Bergner said military officials believe Mashhadani was the top Iraqi working for al-Qaida in Iraq, which he said is led by foreigners.
Bergner noted that the group’s leader, Egyptian Abu Ayyub al-Masri, and other senior figures are from other countries, although intelligence analysts estimate that as much as 95 percent of the group is Iraqi.
“Mashhadani confirms that al-Masri and the foreign leaders with whom he surrounds himself, not Iraqis, make the operational decisions†for al-Qaida in Iraq, Bergner said.
Well, despite the communiques, funds, forces and the fact that the leaders in Iraq are foreigners BUYING support from Iraq mercenaries there is very little coordination between the two. Recall this is the same intel community that missed 9-11, missed the Pakistan nuclear capability, missed the WMDs in Iraq…..
“Recall this is the same intel community that missed 9-11, missed the Pakistan nuclear capability, missed the WMDs in Iraq”
And largely staffed with narcissistic “prima donnas”. And anyone who has any experience with narcissistic prima donnas knows that they are A: very territorial and B: incapable of admitting mistakes.
In other words, I can get more done with 15 people who are of slightly above average intelligence but are of the right personality type than I can with 300 extremely smart individuals who are spending a lot of their energy defending organizational territory and slipping knives in each other’s backs.
CP,
Did you ever have any doubt a few motivated people could out work an army on the defensive?
One of the things that makes American enterprise so dynamic and successful is innovation that is driven by competition. When you have monopolies and oligopolies, you can often slow the rate of change.
We *should* have the various intelligence groups competing with each other and resources should be allocated according to success and not according to tradition or politics. And this resource allocation should probably be fairly granular and the results shared.
The problem is that the enemy is small and agile and can try new things and go with what succeeds because they are less burdened by “process”. It would probably be hard in our intelligence community for some hotshot in an agency that isn’t the “go to” shop for some particular kind of thing to put an idea into play and see how it works out. They would probably get all kinds of pushback from the people whose job it traditionally is to do that.
It is juvenile but understandable. Smart people tend to have tender egos and it is often those tender egos that end up being the driving force rather than the success or failure of a particular project, department, or agency.
CP
But you need someone above who knows of each units projects so you don’t end up with things like the DEA trying to bust a local cop drug stings.
It is obvious that these people are associated, they always have been. The debate over whether or not someone secular like Saddam could be working with a fanatic is ridiculous. These people can and do use each other whenever it is advantageous to do so.
Something key was brought out by Bill Bennet in his show three days ago…approximately 80-90% of all the terrorist violence is in fact being perpetrated by Al Queda operatives…and beyond 90% of them are non-Iraqi foreigners.
As the SUCCESSFUL clean-up of Anbar province indicates, the local Sunnis who presumably would be in the Al Queda camp…AREN’T…when given protection.
What these kinds of assessments do is build the case that the RATs are simply and irremediably out-to-lunch when they attempt to deny that the enemy we fight is not the same that we launched out to eradicate.
This is not primarily a civil war that we “have no business being involved in”. At least not yet.
These analyses make for a powerful evidentiary tool for a seriously good debater, ala Reagan, or Duncan Hunter or Fred Thompson…to annhilate the likely RAT candidates next Fall.
Something key was brought out by Bill Bennet in his show three days ago…approximately 80-90% of all the terrorist violence is in fact being perpetrated by Al Queda operatives…and beyond 90% of them are non-Iraqi foreigners.
As the SUCCESSFUL clean-up of Anbar province indicates, the local Sunnis who presumably would be in the Al Queda camp…AREN’T…when given protection.
What these kinds of assessments do is build the case that the RATs are simply and irremediably out-to-lunch when they attempt to deny that the enemy we fight is not the same that we launched out to eradicate.
This is not primarily a civil war that we “have no business being involved in”. At least not yet.
These analyses make for a powerful evidentiary tool for a seriously good debater, ala Reagan, or Duncan Hunter or Fred Thompson…to annhilate the likely RAT candidates next Fall.