Update: Reader Crosspatch noted this post at Flopping Aces which, in turn, notes this amazing news out of Anbar:

When members of the government of Anbar Province met with President Bush last week, they presented him with a letter dedicating their success in wiping out Al Qaeda here to the victims of Sept. 11
The letter, which was obtained by the Daily News, was signed by Anbar Governor Mamoun Sami Rashid, Provincial Council Chairman Abdul-Salam Abdullah, and Sheik Sattar abu Risha, the sheik credited with beginning the Anbar Awakening.

These Iraqi Muslims dedicated their success against al-Qaeda to our victims of 9-11, and presented that in person to President Bush. Bin Laden and Zawahiri must be apopleptic in how far their fortunes have turned sour. Mideast Arab Muslims dedicating their defeat of al-Qaeda to the victims of al-Qaeda. Stunning.

end update

I posted a while back on the concepts of momentum and acceleration as they apply to Iraq. I want to revisit that discussion now that we have charts from Gen Petraeus on what the historic trends actually were in Iraq. Each slide gives an indication of which way the momentum is trending in Iraq at any one point over the last year or years. It either trends to success or defeat (and withdrawal of our forces will be a defeat no matter how much liberals claim otherwise). I don’t have time to copy and shrink down the slides so they can be viewed here so please bear with my as I reference the slides by number (it would help folks follow along if you bring the slides up in another browser window). The slides are numbered 1-13, not including the cover slide. So the slide number is not the same as the page number on the slide itself (slide 1 is the title page, slide 2 is numbered as page 1, etc).

So let’s begin with slide 4, page number 3, which shows Iraq civilian deaths from Jan 06 to Aug 07. 2006 is clearly when al-Qaeda decided to try and destabilize Iraq through bombings and killings, meant to enrage sectarian mistrust and create a civil war. Their targets were Muslims. They went out to kill Iraqis. And they did just that, in vast numbers. As the chart shows Baghdad had around 200 deaths in January and Iraq had around 500, presumably not due to natural causes but attacks. By Dec 06 the numbers had sky rocketed to 2,250 deaths in Baghdad and 3,000 in Iraq overall. Clearly the al-Qaeda focus was on Baghdad since it represents over two thirds of the Iraq total deaths as al-Qaeda started its massacre of Muslims.

Then something happened which changed the momentum from defeat to possibly success, and changed Iraq’s future. From Dec 06 to Feb 07 the numbers dropped off dramatically. By Feb 07 the Baghdad deaths had dropped by about half to 1100, and the Iraq deaths dropped as well to around 1900. This is all pre-surge.

So what happened? Iraqis turned on al-Qaeda is what happened. The stories are becoming legend on how savvy and observant US military leaders in Anbar Province noted the split between al-Qaeda and the local Sunnis as al-Qaeda went on its bloody rampage – killing Muslims. Anbar had its ‘awakening’ and swore on the Koran to destroy al-Qaeda, who was killing their people more than American infidels. There are many, many stories that describe the sea change in Anbar. This story by Michael J Totten describes his experiences in seeing the changes in Ramadi, Anbar’s capitol city. And this story by The CS Monitor describes what happened in Fallujah, one of Anbar’s infamous terrorist hot spots. They are first hand accounts which explain the change. But I want to look again at the trend.

We can see from the graph we analyzed above that Anbar turned before The Surge began – and in fact it is not a secret Anbar is the tactical model The Surge is based upon, just applied to Baghdad and other Provinces infested with al-Qaeda. The fact is The Surge is still just beginning to have an effect. So what can we expect to see in the coming months? Well, if we assume that when the Anbar model is applied it will generate similar (not identical) results then we should see a big change in Iraq.

I want to skip to slide 8, page number 7 to first focus on the Anbar results, to see the model we hope will be reflected across Iraq. These are not projections, this is what happened in Anbar. In Jun 06 the monthly attack rate was above 800 per month. By Oct 06 the al-Qaeda bloodletting peaked at just under 1400 per month. These are attacks – not deaths, but the deaths and injuries will clearly track with the number of attacks. Then we see the shift in alliance occur and by Feb 07 the attacks dropped down to a little over 1100. So the momentum had shifted at this point. And then another factor took over: acceleration. As the tide turned against al-Qaeda the number of attacks in Anbar started to drop off even faster. By Aug 07 the number of attacks in Anbar were down to 200 per month. Anbar is a large and highly populated Province, so 200 per month is a pretty low level and it is one quarter the level from Jun 2006.

If Anbar truly is the model for The Surge, then we will see in the regions just now feeling the impact of The Surge a slow drop off, followed by a huge acceleration in peace as al-Qaeda is taken down and shunned by the locals (with the US providing them the security and back up to take on the viscous thugs of Bin Laden).

Now look at graph 9, page number 8 to see how Baghdad and two other Provinces, which are in the early stages of The Surge, are starting to see the initial small drop off in attacks – just as Anbar did in the first few months of its transition. Also take a gander at slide 5, page number 5, which shows the steady drop off of violence in Baghdad. These areas outside Anbar have not even hit the knee of their curves – if they follow the Anbar model – where the drop off will be soon accelerating. The fact is, the locals in these areas (especially Diyala – which is surprisingly missing from these charts) have swore on the Koran to destroy al-Qaeda just as their Anbar counterparts did over 6 months ago. Anbar appears to be ahead of the rest of trouble spots in terms of driving to success, so we should see the same kind of explosion of change (to varying degrees of course).

The stories above make clear the momentum has shifted towards success. And the data shows we may soon be accelerating towards it as al-Qaeda collapses because the Muslim Street has risen up against it. Without popular support, and in the face of being despised by the locals, al-Qaeda will whither and die out in Iraq. This could be an enormous impact – if Anbar is any indication. If al-Qaeda is the primary disruption and barricade to peace, is it being too optimistic to envision their departure from the scene will change Iraq’s trajectory significantly?

I must say President Bush was smart to start the Iraq front when he did – it optimized his chances of seeing Iraq through to the tipping point where defeat is no longer possible before he had to leave office. I think we have passed that tipping point already. But the next 3-6 months will tell for sure. If the violence continues to evaporate, and the government can pull off some key compromise legislation, al-Qaeda will have been defeated and a democratic Iraq will finally stand up to fight al-Qaeda along side us. It will be a huge blow to al-Qaeda, a huge victory for America, vindication of President Bush and the dustbin of history for those who lost faith in this country – and saw succes for the Islamo Fascists of al-Qaeda. Too many bet on the fascists to win out over freedom and democracy. But Darwin has an answer for them.

Anyway, here is the bottom line: The effect of The Surge may just now be beginning to be seen, and it seems highly probable that there will be even more positive changes happening in Iraq in the coming months. If the acceleration also occurs (the snowball effect), then it will be more than just evident – it could be breathe taking. And it is could be starting right now in Anbar (from the CS Monitor story):

And an Anbari from the western part of the province says the Americans have learned how to work with the local population and security has improved. Yet, he says, US forces should now retrench back to larger bases, leaving the streets behind.

“I believe the Iraqi Army and Iraqi police can take care of it because they know the area better,” says the Iraqi, who refused to give his name for security reasons.

Anbar could be a victim of its success, and any effort to begin withdrawing forces could mean a more precipitous withdrawal by the Marines. Indeed, Multi-National Forces-West, the Marine unit operating in Anbar, is already planning to begin shrinking its bases. It will then go into what officers call “operational overwatch” in which marines act only when the Iraqi police or Army can’t do it on their own.

Drawing down of forces in Anbar is an interesting indicator. Anbar may be the bellweather for what is to come in Iraq. We should all be hoping it is, instead of creating excuses to ignore or deny what is happening there.