The Holy month of Ramadan was supposed to be al-Qaeda’s Holy month of massacres (the only trick they have left in their arsenal). But it turns out that al-Qaeda just can’t field the same force of violence as it used to be able to last month, let alone last year:

As Ramadan draws to a close in Iraq, a feared explosion of violence has, so far, failed to materialize, but so has the clear turnaround desired by US commanders and the Iraqi government.

Fifty-one US soldiers have lost their lives since the Muslim holy month began September 12, down from more-than-70 in the four previous weeks, and only half the number killed during last year’s bloodiest Ramadan to date.

On paper at least, the US military and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki can be happy that violence levels are falling.

The number of incidents during the Muslim holy month fell by more-than-20 percent compared to the previous four weeks, interior ministry spokesman Major General Abdel Karim Khalaf said.

“Violence during Ramadan decreased sharply,” Khalaf said. “This is a good indication of the improvement in security and stability.”

Iraqi civilian deaths were down by more-than-half in September on the previous month to 840 – the lowest figure this year – according to data compiled by three Iraqi ministries.

US military deaths for September dipped to a 14-month low, a fact that commanders attributed to the “surge” strategy, which saw an extra-28,500 American personnel deployed from mid-February, starting to take effect.

The immediate turn-around is a myth created by the SurrenderMedia, who now must report each month a new level of progress in Iraq. Their disgust at being wrong about Iraq can not stop the changes sweeping Iraq since those changes swelled up fromt the grass roots in response to al-Qaeda’s atrocities against fellow Muslims.

These statistics are stunning to think about. al-Qaeda promised a surge in violence and I expected an uptick from August. But right now we simply see a dip. And compared to last year it is simply amazing the change. We are still in the middle of this fight, just heading toward a successful end. Not there yet.

It seems, based on reporting by Bill Roggio, that the reason the overall numbers are down is because al-Qaeda’s operational area is shrinking fast. Initially they were run out of Anbar Province which is now basically immune to al-Qaeda since everyone who lives their is watching for al-Qaeda and ready to pounce. al-Qaeda had fled from Anbar to Diyala Province, which was a major area of operation during the real Surge this year and on its way to becoming Anbar like (though it may never reach the same levels of peace and quiet). From Roggio’s reporting that has pushed al-Qaede into the even smaller Salahadin Province:

Al Qaeda announced its Ramadan assassination program at the start of the Muslim holy month and is executing its plan in Salahadin province, where the opposition to al Qaeda is still in its infancy.

In a coordinated suicide attack in Baiji, two suicide bombers struck at senior members of the Iraqi police and the Salahadin Awakening Council, the Sunni political front organizing in the province against al Qaeda. The first suicide bomber drove a pickup truck packed with explosives into the home of Colonel Saad Nifous, Baiji’s chief of police, who was wounded in the strike. “Three houses were completely demolished,” said Lieutenant Colonel Fadhil Mahmoud of the provincial Salahadin police. “Eight people were killed and 16 wounded and they are still searching for other bodies under the rubble.”

The target of the second attack, which occurred minutes after the first suicide strike, is still unclear. The Times reported that Thamir Attallah, the military chief of the Baiji Awakening Council was the target. Reuters stated Hamad al Jubouri, the leader of the Salahadin Awakening Council, was in al Qaeda’s crosshairs as he visited a mosque.

…

Salahadin province is one of the last refuges for al Qaeda in Iraq. The terror group remains strong in the regions around Samarra, Baiji, Tarmiyah, and Baiji. Iraqi and Coalition special operations forces conduct raids daily in the rural regions around these cities. The cities of Karmah in Anbar and Taji in Baghdad provinces border southern Salahadin and remain al Qaeda hot spots.

al-Qaeda is running out of land to operate from, the noose is tightening. Their brutality creates a backlash among the people they ‘control’ so fierce that if US and Iraqi forces can provide a modicum of security the locals line up to swear on the Koran to destroy al-Qaeda. Salahadin may be al-Qaeda’s last stand in Iraq and the final chapter of the war. Reconstruction may be just around the corner.