Oct 15 2007
al-Qaeda Decimated In Iraq
While some want to give the results more time to solidify, the fact is al-Qaeda had lost Iraq because the people of Iraq rose up and are swearing on the Koran to destroy them:
The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.
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There is widespread agreement that AQI has suffered major blows over the past three months. Among the indicators cited is a sharp drop in suicide bombings, the group’s signature attack, from more than 60 in January to around 30 a month since July. Captures and interrogations of AQI leaders over the summer had what a senior military intelligence official called a “cascade effect,” leading to other killings and captures. The flow of foreign fighters through Syria into Iraq has also diminished, although officials are unsure of the reason and are concerned that the broader al-Qaeda network may be diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and elsewhere.
The deployment of more U.S. and Iraqi forces into AQI strongholds in Anbar province and the Baghdad area, as well as the recruitment of Sunni tribal fighters to combat AQI operatives in those locations, has helped to deprive the militants of a secure base of operations, U.S. military officials said. “They are less and less coordinated, more and more fragmented,” Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the second-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq, said recently. Describing frayed support structures and supply lines, Odierno estimated that the group’s capabilities have been “degraded” by 60 to 70 percent since the beginning of the year.
There is no rush to make this determination. The results will only be solidified in the coming months. I expext by December or January, when the numbers are in for months much more recent than July are available, it will simply be a matter of confirming the current suspicions. al-Qaeda is the enemy of Muslims in Iraq. And that view is spreading out across the Middle East.
What is clear is Sunni and Shiite leaders are making progress on the ground, paving the way for a new future for Iraq:
Influential Shi’ite cleric Ammar Hakim held talks in Ramadi yesterday with a powerful Sunni tribal sheikh, which observers said were highly symbolic for reconciliation in war-torn Iraq.
The meeting between Hakim, a leading figure of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), and Sheikh Ahmed Abu Reesha, leader of a Sunni coalition in western Anbar province formed to fight Al Qaeda, was tightly guarded by Iraqi troops and police and the US military.
The visit was the first by a leader of the SIIC to the Sunni stronghold in volatile Anbar province, long a bastion of resistance to the US-led invasion and opposition to the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government.
Tribal chiefs at the meeting hailed the visit, calling it important for reconciliation in a country riven with bitter sectarian divides that have led to the killings of thousands of Iraqis.
Bush will be vindicated long before the November 2008 elections. And watch as the electorate makes as big a shift here in the US as the Iraqis did a few months back. Hold onto your hats ladies and gentlemen, it is going to be a wild political ride for the next 12 months.
Rushing indeed will be the wrong thing to do.
But I will point out there is a major disconnect between all the sources I read.
I read some places that say bombers and others are being routed through Syria and I hear our combined forces along with the local troops are taking down 4 to 14 bad guys a day.
As long as we are taking down bad guys then we know they are still there. But we have to counter that with the other reported numbers of new kids crossing the border to play the game.
When you look at that there is at a minimum a difference in totals.
After all they are only part of the problem.
Sure we can hunt them out and take them down, but at what cost?
The thinner they get they harder they are to find.
But with all that we have the military upper hand for sure , now is the time for the other things to step in and do their magic.
We have done pretty much the guns things, now it is time for us to step up with the rest of the picture.
Now the Dems will have to figure how to spin this and up the bet to counter it or choose to ignore it at their whim.
It will be interesting to see what happens from here.
Merlin:
I think there will be people there causing trouble for a long time, however, I also hope that in relative terms the situation continues to improve. One thing about it, since the war critics have depended largely on big attacks to keep Iraq in the news..once those attacks lessen the situation seems peaceful by contrast.
The problem for AQI is that now that both Shia and Sunni have turned against them, there is nowhere for them to hide, be they foreign or domestic. Since there will be no formal surrender in this war, we will have to look to enemy actions to determine whether they are escalating, or headed toward capitulation.
I agree with AJ that some of the signs of capitulation are there.
First, it’s been easy to notice the decrease in attacks, but more importantly, there’s been a decrease in attacks with a suicide component, indicating the jihad may be running short of willing martyrs. This is a huge problem for al-Qaida, as the suicide attack is absolutely essential in order to instill enough fear to cause the American populace to pull the plug on the American military. The jihad has had to resort to remote detonations increasingly. This signifies to me that the audience in this macabre play, the Arab Street, is no longer applauding.
Secondly, the makeup of the bombers from a nationality standpoint has moved toward higher concentrations of foreigners, and less Iraqis. The tactical change that AQI made in Iraq, from attacking “occupiers” to attacking Iraqis is also instructive.
When they are being defeated, in the past the jihadis have had a tendency to change the venue, meaning attack another country in a big way, such that no one will notice their defeat on the current battlefield. This is what I fear they will do, and perhaps have already been attempting, what with recent arrests in Germany and elsewhere. But nonetheless such an attack will be an indication that the Iraq front, the front that they themselves have declared to be the pivotal battlefield, they feel is being lost.
Perhaps our strategy in Iraq is to dispense with al-Qaida, THEN deal with Iran?
Al-Qaeda In Iraq Reported Crippled…
Wow! Before I head into work, I wanted throw this up real quick. After reports of declining casulaties, we now get reports from military that our enemy is crippled! I know the liberals don’t want to hear it, but victory is starting to look lik…
Do we want to elect a President that was so willing to throw Iraq and Iraqi’s away because of polls?
Do we want to elect a President that was so willing to throw Iraq and Iraqi’s away because of polls?
Just a few months ago, the experts were telling us with great confidence that there would be a major uptick, a “surge” if you will, in al Qaeda activity in Iraq just prior to the September report to Congress by Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of U.S. forces in Iraq.
We are still waiting for the al Qaeda “surge” to materialize (just like we are still waiting for Jason Leopold to “sting” the sources of his “Rove has 48 hours to get his house in order” story).
We know the MSM really only likes to report “unhappy for Bush” news, and they definitely don’t like to bring attention to their own stories that don’t pan out, but the real indicator of al Qaeda in Iraq is their, more or less, absence of any ability to influence the media or political opinion through their non-materializing actions. Even, UBL now seems unable to scare a goat, except perhaps with that beard straight from a Ed Wood movie.
Even still, the Democrats don’t like to talk about Iraq anymore, and only months ago they were crediting their stand on Iraq for the November 2006 electoral success.
I guess Harry Reid was right. The war is “lost” .. for the friends of the insurgency.
Perhaps ten years from now, while the Nobel for Al looks incredibly silly, Bush will be getting the “Profiles in Courage” award.
Ten years from now, Bush in prison is more likely than a Profiles in Courage award.