I noted days ago the AP had put out an article that tried to cover up the fact violence in Iraq is dropping to ALL TIME Lows. The point was clear: averaging the violence over the year of 2007 was playing with numbers to create a fantasy representation. Yes, more US troops died in 2007 (so did more Americans in general – but that is how things are). But 2007 also has shown – post Surge – the lowest monthly death and casualty rates for many years. Some records are going back 2-3 years.

The NY Times screams the headlines about the most deadly year in Iraq as did all other media outlets, without once thinking about the false information they were pandering.

Six American soldiers were killed in three separate attacks in Iraq on Monday, the military said Tuesday, taking the number of deaths this year to 852. The toll makes 2007 the deadliest year of the war for United States troops.

Daily numbers go up and down. The last two weeks of October saw EIGHT days without a single death (see here for the data). If I add those eight days of no casualties to the one day with six casualties we get a monthly average of 20 deaths per month. That would be the lowest monthly rate EVER seen in Iraq.

I have a hard time believing journalists can barely deal at a 5th grade math level, but I guess it is possible they really are that dumb. But then again, they could be lying with forethought. Recall that averages are the mid point. If the average is fifty on high point (say 75) requires a number of low points to offset it. In the example of a day of 75 a day of 25 will give you an average of 50. So if 2007 is the deadliest year and we still have a month to go, and the last three months have seen drop offs in violence of sometimes over 50%, that means the period BEFORE the Surge was truly bloody. Again, if we are now dealing with record low rates, that means the rates before hand were really high to get us into the deadliest year.

So what does this mean? Well, if you a liberal SurrenderMedia propaganda house it means you can try and bury the good news for one more month and pray al-Qaeda starts killing again so the next year will not be so bad. But, if you have some elementary math skills and understand averages and trend lines, you realize how big an affect the Surge is having. If we run the last 5 months with record low monthly casualty rates (and we will barring some WMD attack) then next year will be so peaceful in comparison to 2008 the Democrats will look EVEN MORE foolish for trying to stop the peace (excuse me, the Surge) from creating a success in Iraq.

Like all conflicts, the bloodiest moments are right before the end. Happened in WII in Europe and Japan, happened in Gulf War I (remember the highway of death?). The last gasp of the combatants has a Battle Royale where both combatants give it their all until one side destroys the loser. And that is typically the period of highest casualties. But the peace that comes afterwards is hard to ignore – no matter how many math-lame headlines liberal newspapers (who are losing business) put out.

BTW – of course there is real progress being made in Iraq. First here:

Partnering with the Iraqi Army, Coalition Forces killed five al-Qaeda in Iraq operatives, wounded three and detained seven individuals during Operation Ultra Magnus in and around Hussein Hamadi village, Iraq, Oct. 28-30.

Soldiers from Troop C, 2nd Squadron, 1st Cavalry Regiment along with Iraqi soldiers from 3rd Company, 3rd Battalion, 2nd Brigade, 5th Iraqi Army Division swept through the town in southern Diyala province which had previously been an AQI stronghold.

“AQI used the area as a headquarters,” said Capt. Al Bangor, Troop C, 2-1 Cav. Commander. “They stored their weapons there, lived on the fringes of the town and from there, they would push their fighters out to conduct attacks. (The local people) have lost contact with the Iraqi government for the last two years due to AQI sealing off the area.”

And also here

The number of Iraqis returning to their country after fleeing abroad is growing, with more than 46,000 people coming home last month, an Iraqi government spokesman said Wednesday.

Brig. Gen. Qassim al-Moussawi, the Iraqi spokesman for a U.S.-Iraqi military push to pacify Baghdad, said border crossings recorded 46,030 people returning to Iraq in October alone. He attributed the large number to the “improving security situation.”

“The level of terrorist operations has dropped in most of the capital’s neighborhoods, due to the good performance of the armed forces,” al-Moussawi told reporters in the heavily-guarded Green Zone.

And the Dems still claim this is a lost and unpatriotic effort. Must suck to be so damn depressed.