Nov 08 2007
Is America Awakening To The Changes In Iraq
I ran across an interesting poll trend regarding America’s views on Iraq (see here for the graph of opinion trends and here for the rationalized denial things are changing). The trends in public opinion track, with a reasonable rersponse delay due to some reasonable ‘wait and see’ hesitancy, with the results of the Surge on violence in Iraq. My expectation is that as the trends in Iraq violence continue downward and demonstrate these are not simply some temporary condition that the public opinion will shift back to Bush and his determination to succeed.
The level of denial things will rebound for Bush is seen in this one comment noted by Andrew Sullivan:
For one, even if we do achieve something close to victory in Iraq the media narrative will be that it was in spite of Bush rather than because it.
Someone is dreaming. The fact is if things turn around Bush will be given credit and the Dems will be seen as the Surrendercrats they are. How can people ignore “these statistics?
“Murder victims are down 80 percent from where they were at the peak” he said. “(Improvised explosive device) attacks are down 70 percent.”
As someone pointed out (I lost the link) Americans are not happy with the war, but they don’t want to lose it either. Americans want to succeed and will credit those who pull out the upset in the fourth quarter. They will not reward those who gave up and laid down in the third quarter (end of my football analogies).
Most of the left side today is touting a poll that says Iraq war rejection has reached new highs. Still trying to find a copy to look at the internals.
HuffPo has a post up with a laundry list of attempts to debunk every piece of news out of Iraq which is almost laughable in it’s content. They are consulting everyone short of witchdoctors and one source sounds like a second cousin to one.
Murtha and Pelosi are both jumping on the no funding without withdrawal pledges which is actually a good sign considering their track record.
HuffPo is trying so hard to really steer clear from the issue events that the biggest story over there for the last three days has been the writers strike for crying out loud.
Next up they are crying in their beer over a toss up between Paul McCartney and his gal and Rosie losing her show before she got it.
Poor Kos is flailing around trying to figure out how to get his game on bleging to try to raise 100k for some of his favorite progressive candidates among his followers which he hasn’t been able to do in 2 or 3 weeks trying and is getting flak from the peanut gallery as to why Ron Paul can get err done but he is in a stumble.
Also Kos has really been catching it since about 2 weeks ago when he suddenly hit the maybe Hillary ain’t so bad message after 2 years of wanting to rip her guts out and there are open suggestions over in their neck of the woods that maybe Hillary has decided to spend some Chinatown cash to modify Kos’s position.
How about this from “counterterrorism blog” the Shea are speaking out and doing something about it.
Thu Nov 8, 8:53 AM ET
KARBALA, Iraq (AFP) – Police on Thursday accused the Mahdi Army militia of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr of carrying out a four-year killing spree in Iraq’s central shrine city of Karbala which left hundreds dead.
The killings and other gross human rights violations were carried out by the militiamen in their attempt to impose Sharia law on the people of Karbala, the police directorate of Karbala province said in a statement.
“The Mahdi Army murdered and tortured and kidnapped people under Sharia law,” the statement said. “They are the cause of the deaths of hundreds of people. They also committed numerous violations of human rights in Karbala.”
The statement marks the first time the Iraqi authorities have directly accused Iraq’s most powerful Shiite militia of carrying out killings.
Karbala, home to some of Shiite Islam’s holiest shrines, was the scene of a slaughter in August when suspected Mahdi Army militiamen clashed with police and turned a major pilgrimage into a bloodbath which killed 52 people.
Just days later, Sadr announced a six-month suspension of the activities of his militia.
“Gunmen and outlawed armed groups represented by the Mahdi Army militia caused chaos and confusion in (Karbala) province and perpetrated many human rights violations,” the police statement said.
“This militia tried to impose a system of Sharia law on Karbala citizens. They caused chaos in the town through corruption and harsh laws. They tried through different means to undermine the state authority and the law to control everything about people’s lives.”
Karbala provincial police chief Brigadier General Raed Shakir gave reporters a year by year tally of what he said were killings carried out by the militia.
“In 2004, 127 men and five women (civilians) and six police officers and 24 policemen were killed,” Shakir said.
“They carried out 13 robberies and 23 abduction operations and planted five roadside bombs.”
The following year, he said, 158 men and 25 women were killed and eight civilians were kidnapped. The militia carried out seven robberies and planted 11 roadside bombs.
“In 2006, 160 men and 17 women were killed. Three police officers and one policeman were killed. There were nine robberies and 49 abduction operations. Twenty-four roadside bombs were planted.”
So far this year, the police chief said, 92 men and 22 women have been killed by the militia. Three police officers and 25 policemen have been killed.
“The Mahdi army carried out 15 robberies and 53 abduction operations. They planted 11 roadside bombs.”
The police statement and comments appear to have been prompted by accusations by the Mahdi Army that police in Karbala two weeks ago shot dead two children of militiamen.
The statement said in fact the children had been killed because the militiamen had used them as human shields.
How about this from “counterterrorism blog” the Shea are speaking out and doing something about it.
Thu Nov 8, 8:53 AM ET
KARBALA, Iraq (AFP) – Police on Thursday accused the Mahdi Army militia of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr of carrying out a four-year killing spree in Iraq’s central shrine city of Karbala which left hundreds dead.
The killings and other gross human rights violations were carried out by the militiamen in their attempt to impose Sharia law on the people of Karbala, the police directorate of Karbala province said in a statement.
“The Mahdi Army murdered and tortured and kidnapped people under Sharia law,” the statement said. “They are the cause of the deaths of hundreds of people. They also committed numerous violations of human rights in Karbala.”
The statement marks the first time the Iraqi authorities have directly accused Iraq’s most powerful Shiite militia of carrying out killings.
Karbala, home to some of Shiite Islam’s holiest shrines, was the scene of a slaughter in August when suspected Mahdi Army militiamen clashed with police and turned a major pilgrimage into a bloodbath which killed 52 people.
Just days later, Sadr announced a six-month suspension of the activities of his militia.
“Gunmen and outlawed armed groups represented by the Mahdi Army militia caused chaos and confusion in (Karbala) province and perpetrated many human rights violations,” the police statement said.
“This militia tried to impose a system of Sharia law on Karbala citizens. They caused chaos in the town through corruption and harsh laws. They tried through different means to undermine the state authority and the law to control everything about people’s lives.”
Karbala provincial police chief Brigadier General Raed Shakir gave reporters a year by year tally of what he said were killings carried out by the militia.
“In 2004, 127 men and five women (civilians) and six police officers and 24 policemen were killed,” Shakir said.
“They carried out 13 robberies and 23 abduction operations and planted five roadside bombs.”
The following year, he said, 158 men and 25 women were killed and eight civilians were kidnapped. The militia carried out seven robberies and planted 11 roadside bombs.
“In 2006, 160 men and 17 women were killed. Three police officers and one policeman were killed. There were nine robberies and 49 abduction operations. Twenty-four roadside bombs were planted.”
So far this year, the police chief said, 92 men and 22 women have been killed by the militia. Three police officers and 25 policemen have been killed.
“The Mahdi army carried out 15 robberies and 53 abduction operations. They planted 11 roadside bombs.”
The police statement and comments appear to have been prompted by accusations by the Mahdi Army that police in Karbala two weeks ago shot dead two children of militiamen.
The statement said in fact the children had been killed because the militiamen had used them as human shields.
If the Iraq government is more concerned about BlackWater than the JAM or AQI then indeed the times they are a changing.
Rush has been saying for weeks, and repeated it today, The 2008 Elections will NOT be about Iraq. They will be about 2 main things:
Illegal Aliens
Taxes
I think he’s probubly right.
Yesterday he said that if the Republicans would run conservatives rather than those who they did, many of the Election results from yesterday would have been different.
Of course, many areas were very positive for the GOP yesterday, despite Aj’s diatribe.
Prince William County was a positive, as was Haselton Pa.
And on the tax front, Oregon rejected a Tax Increase on smokes, and in New Jersey, they rejected a Stem Cell Taxing measure.
Take Care folks.
Talk again in a few weeks.
It is hard to change minds once an idea is firmly in place, so these kind of attitudes will take time to change and the truth is there will always be people who will think it was not worth it. Just because they are so tired of hearing about it all.
After today’s vote on the water bill, the Republicans can no longer promote themselves as the fiscal conservatives. It would be a serious mistake for them to do so.
I don’t think whatever is happening in Iraq will ever be a factor in changing anyone’s mind politically for election 08. Any “good news” out of Iraq simply will not be reported. It will just go on the backburner as it was before. And people will just continue on down the road that has been carved for them.
Barring any other international crisis…it’s going to be the illegal immigration issue… that’s going to be the big gun in this election. Just watch them squirm everytime questions are asked about it. Because the politicans who are actually doing polling outside…know…what’s waiting out there for them on this issue.
Steve:
Rush is not always right. Case in point: I don’t think illegal immigration will work out for the right the way they think it will. Thus far it has been a negative for them. If the Democrats do what Spitzer did and go too far to the left on the issue however, it might balance out.
In fact I am not sure that Rush would not like a Hillary Clinton administration. Think of all the material he would get out of that. His ratings might even go up. Lots of money for certain political pundits in a Hillary Clinton White House. That is after all, how he makes his living. He does not actually run anything.
What everyone is ignoring is that on generic polling the Democrats, not known for being fiscal conservatives or hardliners on immigration, have a 13 point advantage over Republicans.
And a Republican did win in Indianapolis as mayor. Greg Ballard is a lot like the former mayor of Indianapolis, Dick Lugar. Lugar wanted to get rid of the IRS, Ballard ran against high property taxes.
It’s time to clarify this point: What is a conservative?
Ivehadit,
“a conservative” is an individual with independent views. A governing coalition of conservatives is a group large enough to gain majority rule in elected government offices which COMPROMISE across individual views to generate a consensus view of what they will all work together to make happen legislatively and policy-wise.
The problem with the far right is they destroyed the coalition by being bitter, harsh critics of their allies. Now they have no allies.
Conservatives in general are people who oppose liberal policies to varying degrees, and wish to see conservative policies enacted – to varying degress. Go beyond the comfort level of too many people and the coalition splits.