Dec 02 2007

November Progress In Iraq Confirmed, Part III

Published by at 11:49 pm under All General Discussions,Iraq

November is turning out to be quite significant in measuring and confirming the progress The Surge is making in Iraq. The first indication reported was the continued decline in US combat deaths in November – making this the 6th straight month of of the trend. The next indicator to come out was the news of a continued decline in Iraqi civilian deaths. And now we find an even more important indicator: a significant decline in the influx of new terrorists into the country:

November saw fewer fighters enter Iraq from neighboring countries and fewer Iraqi civilians killed, according to two reports on Sunday.

Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the No. 2-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq, told CNN fewer weapons and fighters entered Iraq from Iran and Syria over the past month.

And Iraq’s Interior Ministry said civilian deaths caused by war-related violence in Iraq dropped for a third straight month in November.

Odierno said the U.S. military is “pleased” with Syria’s improvement.

He was reluctant to give credit to Iran, telling CNN’s Wolf Blitzer he has adopted a “wait-and-see” approach to Iran after noting “a small reduction” in the number of explosively-formed penetrators found in Iraq.

“That’s a positive sign,” Odierno said, referring to the drop in EFPs.

“We’ve seen some decline in activity. I hope that from our perspective that in fact they have stopped supplying some of these extremist groups. That would be very good. I’m not ready to say they have,” he added.

The U.S. military maintains that explosively formed penetrators — a sophisticated and powerful type of roadside bomb — are made in Iran and their components are shipped into Iraq by the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, the Iranian unit accused by the United States of training and arming insurgents.

Iran has denied any involvement.

Odierno said there has been a 25 to 30 percent reduction in the number of foreign fighters entering Iraq from Syria, and credited Syria for taking “some steps to limit that.”

I think one major factor in this indicator is the fact al-Qaeda is primarily killing fellow Muslims (still at a pace of 20 Muslims to each American) and the Muslim community is starting to realize the truth about Bin Laden’s Islamo Fascists. Once the Muslim street of Iraq rose up against al-Qaeda, it became very difficult to find Muslims willing to go into Iraq and torture, maim and kill fellow Arab Muslims.

In fact, if you look at what is happening on the ground from eyewitness reports it is hard to believe there are still recruits willing to kill innocent Muslim men, women and children:

In August, I wrote in these pages that it was too soon to judge Gen. David Petraeus’ surge of troops in Iraq a success or a failure. It’s not too soon anymore.
Baghdad, the most dangerous city in all of Iraq, is only half as violent as it was when I was there during the summer. And the fact that the capital is now the deadliest city is itself evidence of a tectonic shift on the ground.

In the spring of 2007, Ramadi was the most violent place in Iraq. But the insurgency there has been finished. The Taji area north of Baghdad, which was a catastrophe when I paid a visit in July, is now going the way of Ramadi.

I am writing these words from Fallujah, site of the most horrific battle of the entire war in November 2004, and the city thought to be the meanest in Iraq since at least the time of the British in Mesopotamia.

But attacks against coalition forces in Fallujah are down by more than 90% since March of this year. Almost all attacks these days are single, ineffective pot shots rather than the lethal IEDs of last year.

There hasn’t been a single firefight in this city for months. The Marines at Camp Fallujah haven’t been shot at with a rocket or mortar since April. Not one Marine from the 3rd Battalion, 5th Regiment has even been wounded since they rotated into the city two months ago. The only shots the Marines have fired have been practice rounds on the range.

The end of the fighting is happening now. To remind people, there are still radical nut cases who still worship the Nazi Swastika and believe in the superiority of the Arian race. Hitler was defeated 60 years ago, yet his madness lives on in some. I think we shall see the same thing with al-Qaeda. It will not die out completely, just be relegated to the mad fringes of humanity.

What is important is the Iraqis are policing themselves and not letting anyone get away with mayhem. Just check out the situation regarding the top Sunni leader in the Iraq Parliament and the car bombs and material found among his personal entourage:

Iraq said on Sunday that seven detained guards of Sunni leader Adnan al-Dulaimi have tested “positive” for handling explosives after troops found two cars bombs at the politician’s Baghdad office.

“We have found positive traces of explosives on seven of his guards,” government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told AFP, speaking in English. “Their hands are polluted with explosives.”

Dabbagh also said one guard had the key to the car which was rigged with explosives and found near Dulaimi’s office in the capital’s Hail Adel neighbourhood on Thursday.

The Iraqi army said on Thursday that soldiers had found two car bombs near Dulaimi’s office and later detonated them.

It also detained his son and dozens of his bodyguards. Dulaimi said he himself had been placed under house arrest since Friday.

The Sunnis originally boycotted Parliament after the leader was held under house arrest, but they have already ended the boycott only a few days into the crisis. It would appear the detection of a car bomb has made the Sunnis step back and rethink their priorities. After all the bloodshed in Iraq at the hands of al-Qaeda my guess is to find oneself in the same boat as al-Qaeda with blood on your hand is basically a death sentence in Iraq right now. And rightfully so. The Iraqis have made their decision – it is against violence and terrorism and for peace and democracy. They will not be changing their minds too soon.

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