If the drop in violence in Iraq is sustained and reconciliation continues to proceed then we could see 21,500 US troops out of Iraq by summer.

Petraeus outlined a strategy for handling what he called “the thinning out of our forces” as 17,500 soldiers and 4,000 Marines depart by July. He said he has asked each U.S. brigade commander to consider the U.S. and Iraqi forces and local volunteers they have available, gauge the intensity of the insurgent threat and map out incremental plans to “step back a bit” and shift to mentoring while allowing Iraqi forces to take the lead.

The transition strategy will link future troop reductions to continued improvements in security, which Petraeus called “heartening” in recent months. Weekly attacks in Iraq as of the end of November had declined to a level not seen consistently since mid-2005, he said. Iraqi civilian deaths are at their lowest level since the end of 2005, and November had the lowest number of U.S. troop deaths for 20 months, according to U.S. military figures.

In fact, I would wager we could see many more given how conservative and cautious the Bush administration is being since it has had to deal with the bias in the SurrenderMedia. It is all about setting expectations now and Bush has the left right where he wants them.

The left and liberal media have two choices right now. If they continue to deny progress Bush and the Pentagon simply remain conservative in their expectations, which will allow them to perform better than expected time and time again. Or the media can finally accept a reasonably good victory is at hand in Iraq – which will be a victory better than the one we got out of World War II because we will not have an Iron Curtain, no Cold War, no arms race, no massive troop deployments and basing. And if they finally concede their own defeat, Bush will again have performed above expectations. Win-win for Bush, lose-lose for the left. Which is probably why the left is still hoping for option 3 – being the sick vultures they are – which is bloodshed across Iraq.