Dec 07 2007
Intel Behind Iran NIE To Be Investigated
The liberal media is a bit upset their politicization of the latest NIE on Iran is not working, so they claim all those who raise legitimate doubts about the NIE are – of course – politicizing the NIE. Kettle, meet pot. We can see this in the way the SurrenderMedia portrays the debate. Their frustration with the fact the sudden reversal is not impacting Bush and the fact no one is running around pretending Iran is now a peaceful and civilized country. WaPo’sJust look at the tone this morning when they learned Congress is going to look into the NIE:
Senate Republicans are planning to call for a congressional commission to investigate the conclusions of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran as well as the specific intelligence that went into it, according to congressional sources.
The move is the first official challenge, but it comes amid growing backlash from conservatives and neoconservatives unhappy about the assessment that Iran halted a clandestine nuclear weapons program four years ago. It reflects how quickly the NIE has become politicized, with critics even going after the analysts who wrote it, and shows a split among Republicans.
Emphasis mine. The news media is clueless and defensive. No one is disputing Iran suspended their unreported and illegal nuclear weapons program in 2003 (the media forgets the confirmation of a illegal and covert program is at the core of the NIE). And no one would be happier if it were true. But the evidence out there is pretty strong the program is still up and active – and the NIE admits it cannot say whether it is nor not. So what was this late breaking evidence and how was it so damn solid it could overturn all the other evidence we have Iran is working to build nukes? It’s a fair question – those who call that politicization have only exposed their own personal desires this news would have political impact.
The NIE was something the left loved because it fit into their ridiculous fantasies about Bush and the right wanting to bomb Iran. Problem with their fantasy is no one wants to go to war with Iran or bomb people (the left really needs to get out of the house and stay away from Hollywood products and TV, it is effecting their ability to grasp reality).
But many of us do not think we can allow a terrorist state which controls terrorist armies across the Middle East and which backs the concept of JIhad and suicide bombings to get hold of nuclear weapons. And we have good reason to not want that to happen. We have been supporting Bush’s efforts at international pressure, but they have not produced a promise by Iran to behave. When the French repeatedly say a nuclear armed Iran will be world wide war and destruction as they spearhead EU talks with Iran most people with more than two IQ points to rub together realize this is not a mad rush to war but an all out effort to avoid massive death and destruction and radiation poisoning. The GOP is right:
“Iran is one of the greatest threats in the world today. Getting the intelligence right is absolutely critical, not only on Iran’s capability but its intent. So now there is a huge question raised, and instead of politicizing that report, let’s have a fresh set of eyes — objective, yes — look at it,” he said in an interview.
…
“If it’s inaccurate, it could result in very serious damage to legitimate American policy,” said Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.). As recently as July, he noted, intelligence officials said in congressional testimony that they had a high degree of confidence that Iran was intent on developing the world’s deadliest weapon. “We need to update our conclusions, but this is a substantial change,” he said in an interview.
We will know very soon if this was a con job or not. Those backing the conclusions of the NIE will resist a review if it has problems. If it is so damn good it can stand up to scrutiny, but if it is not and some know it watch for the hesitation. And in the end the answer of Iran’s nuclear program is simple – have Iran prove the NIE’s conclusions.. Now. No delays. If this is true the left should be calling on their buddies in Iran to open their facilities to UN inspectors and fully disclose and catalogue the elements of their weapons program in 2003 and turn them over to the UN. Just prove this surprising (and legitimately unbelievable) NIE is correct. I have no problem whatsoever if the result is we were wrong and this was not a few biased Clinton hang ons who tried another media coup by feeding disinformation to a pliant and desperate liberal media. But let’s be clear here, those are the two options we face.
Option 1: Iran is clean and will prove it ASAP to the UN and international community, it will mean the conservatives were dead wrong.
Option 2: Liberal rogue officials in the intel community conspired with news organizations to cook intelligence to effect a presidential election, and Iran is actually still a deadly threat to the world.
It is clear the news media has a dog in this hunt – their reputations are on the line. Myself, I would be happy to be wrong about Iran. Joyously happy. I will celebrate with everyone else and sing my mea culpa’s daily if Iran shows it is clean. But they must prove it. Prove it now before they can hide anything or cover up. Inspectors need to be in that country by the end of the year if we are going to believe this NIE. If the NIE is wrong, and people lied to our nation about the threats we face with Iran – then they should be punished to the fullest extent of the law. And in this case the law’s extent can be far reaching and terminal.
I have been reading just about all commentary on the NIE left/right/intel community blogs commentators and news stories and on balance there are more having issues with the NIE than supporting it.
I am seeing stuff like yes they shutdown when we went into Iraq, but shortly later they teamed up with North Korea to do their work via 3rd parties to hide it.
Others say to get evidence to change the outlook this much we would have had to have had a step jump in Humint/Sigint and Sat recon stuff over a short period to have dug out such picture changing data
Others are saying cold feet by the intel houses to not be 2 time losers on saying yes it is when no it isn’t would cause issues.
But overall the picture seems to be hey we really aren’t sure but who wants to say for sure.
Merlin,
That is basically the bottom line – they don’t know. Add that to the fact the NIE admits Iran HAD an illegal and unreported weapons program makes it hard to conclude Iran is safe and behaving.
I think we are going to see something happen this year. This is the end game for the rogue intel groups and Bush. Here’s the deal – what if Bush and Co. got wind of a cooked NIE coming down the pike. Would they stop it or let the culprits commit the crime and hang them?
Both sides may go all out here in 2008 trying to tarnish and literally destroy the other side. This could get seriously ugly – and fast.
………and the Clintons have the most to gain.
I am still convinced there is a deeper game here: the lefties at state/CIA may have come up with the NIE, but the equanimity with which Bush and Cheney have greeted it suggest they are (properly in my view) exploiting an opportunity to pressure the Iranians to come clean and creating an atmosphere in which the way the intelligence agencies are operating is publicly scrutinized on something where it highlights a serious risk to national security. If I really believed in conspiracies, I’d almost think Karl Rove encouraged the authors of the NIE to go whole hog….
The real immediate problem here is that the UN sanctions on Iran have nothing to do with whether or not Iran has a “nuclear program”, the hot point of the NIE. Rather, the UN sanctions are based to refusal by Iran to come clean on the scope of their self-admitted uranium enrichment program.
The stupid and useless claim by the NIE that Iran suspended their “nuclear program” has now coopted the international pressure on the “uranium enrichment program”, a real active program.
Claims and stories that the Iranians can’t make highly enriched uranium of weapons quality, based on some news footage of the plant, are misleading in that each time the Iranians make the uranium more enriched, the closer they are to making a weapon. So the fact, or not, that the Iranians have “suspended” their “nuclear program” is meaningless in the face of the development of fissible material for a future “nuclear program” to exploit.
The whole debate has been reduced to saying ..it’ safe now that they have suspended making a gun, while they continue to make the bullets.